1st round Draft bust analysis

[Mad Max]

So we've been debating the need for a Franchise QB, is the selection worth the risk considering the high number of busts. So I wondered if anyone had compiled a comparative bust list by position, and sure enough someone did. It's 3 years old but it uses 15 years worth of data so I'm sure it extrapolates out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

Most of us probably could have guessed the number 1 and 2 positions on the list QB and WR respectively, but I would have thought that the actual percentages would have been higher.

The article states that the QB position for example is a 53% bust rate, which is for all intents and purposes a coin toss. That to me is not bad odds for the most important position on the field, considering the potential reward if the coin comes up heads. Look over the list and notice how many of the non bust QB's went to or got very close to the Super Bowl, very interesting.

[X-Era]

So we've been debating the need for a Franchise QB, is the selection worth the risk considering the high number of busts. So I wondered if anyone had compiled a comparative bust list by position, and sure enough someone did. It's 3 years old but it uses 15 years worth of data so I'm sure it extrapolates out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

Most of us probably could have guessed the number 1 and 2 positions on the list QB and WR respectively, but I would have thought that the actual percentages would have been higher.

The article states that the QB position for example is a 53% bust rate, which is for all intents and purposes a coin toss. That to me is not bad odds for the most important position on the field, considering the potential reward if the coin comes up heads. Look over the list and notice how many of the non bust QB's went to or got very close to the Super Bowl, very interesting.
Timely.

IMO, it changes little to nothing. Teams draft QB's every year, and IMO, this year we will be.

Here's the core data:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

CB's and S's are down there so I guess we should be drafting more of them since we haven't drafted enough corners or taken any safeties lately.

OL is a bit unfair because it lumps G, C, and OT together yet the bust rate for T's is much higher than C's and G's which are usually not taken in the 1st round. That also hold true for S's.

Players Picked in First Round
OL -- 70
DE - 55
CB - 52
WR -- 51
LB -- 48
DT - 42
RB -- 41
QB -- 30
S -- 19

Again, it doesn't matter because teams in need of a QB do it every year despite these numbers.

And again, and most importantly, I didn't make the rules for rebuilding our franchise, Nix did. He has shown and stated he wont be signing the big free agents or trading for big name players, that he will build through the draft.

We need a franchise QB, so that means we must draft one.

BTW, the percentage gets worse in every round after the 1st for all positions as well. So, your most likely to get a good player at any position in the 1st round.

[Mad Max]

CB's and S's are down there so I guess we should be drafting more of them since we haven't drafted enough corners or taken any safeties lately.



Ya our braintrust (term used very loosely), probably had statistics that mirrored these, hence our abundance of DB picks this decade.




We need a franchise QB, so that means we must draft one.



We can only hope. I think we will. A fresh franchise QB always fills seats, which Ralphie will love...and this time it won't be cost prohibitive either (after the new CBA)...so maybe our luck is finally changing a bit.

[Beebe's Kid]

Ralphie doesn't need a franchise QB to fill seats...he doesn't even need a serviceable pro.

IF there is a new CBA, and it is in effect, that doesn't only benefit us. Rookie salaries a out of control.

[Buffalo Thriller]

Never draft a Black QB

[Mad Max]

Ralphie doesn't need a franchise QB to fill seats...he doesn't even need a serviceable pro.
.........

We'll see. A 20% decline in season ticket sales is a pretty loud and clear statement by the fanbase IMO.

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

But if you hit on one you have the most valuable asset for years.

[jamesiscool]

Never draft a Black QB

thats a little aggressive. i dont think ski color matters when it comes to qb play. go back to alabama and kiss yur cousin mother.

[Mad Max]

thats a little aggressive. i dont think ski color matters when it comes to qb play. go back to alabama and kiss yur cousin mother.

lol, ignorant is another word. A little simple math shows that the black QB's actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys (small sample size notwithstanding).

[better days]

lol, ignorant is another word. A little simple math shows that the black QB's actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys (small sample size notwithstanding).

I would take Josh Freeman in a heatbeat.

[jamesiscool]

mcnabb vince young vick freeman and hell jason campbell are all better than any qb on our roster imo. the success rate for white qb's may be better than "black" qb's but honestly how many qb's play in a pro style nfl offense offense where their skillset is geared towards the nfl's style of play?

now how many of them aren't white? its a fraction of a fraction. hence why the success rate for white qb's is much better. its simple arithmetic.

[Oaf]

We should have been picking LBs two of the last three 1st picks we've used on RBs. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/linebackers/070425

[X-Era]

We should have been picking LBs two of the last three 1st picks we've used on RBs. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/linebackers/070425

I could seriously watch that dude fall down the stairs over and over.

[Mad Max]

mcnabb vince young vick freeman and hell jason campbell are all better than any qb on our roster imo. the success rate for white qb's may be better than "black" qb's but honestly how many qb's play in a pro style nfl offense offense where their skillset is geared towards the nfl's style of play?

now how many of them aren't white? its a fraction of a fraction. hence why the success rate for white qb's is much better. its simple arithmetic.

What?

...the black QB's (on that list) actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys...=the black guys succeeded more often the white guys on that list...


...is what I said.

[X-Era]

BTW, did you go through the list on the OL? There are a lot of players that he claims arent busts that are far from studs.

[X-Era]

2000:

QB- Pennington
OT- McDougle, Samuels, Chris Mcintosh

2001:

QB- Vick
OT- Kenyatta Walker, Jeff Backus

2002:

QB- Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
OT- Mike Williams, McKinnie, Levi Jones, Marc Columbo

2003:

QB- Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman
OT- Jordan Gross, George Foster

2004:

QB- Manning, Rivers, Roth, Losman
OT- Gallery, Shawn Andrews, Veron Carey

2005:

QB- Alex Smith, Aaron Rogers, Campbell
OT- Jammal Brown, Alex Barron

2006:

QB- Young, Leinhart, Cutler
OT- D'Brick

2007:

QB- Russell, Quinn
OT- Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, Joe Staley

2008:

QB- Ryan, Flacco
OT- Jake Long, Clady, Brenden Albert, Chris Williams, Gosder Cherilius, Jeff Otah, Sam Baker, Duane Brown

2009:

QB- Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
OT- Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher

2010:

QB- Bradford, Tebow
OT- Okung, Trent Williams, Andre Davis, Bryan Bulaga

-------------------------------------------------

I can only find 3 years in the past ten where you should have picked a OT over a QB if you needed both... Where an OT was a hit and the QB(s) werent. 2000 (Samuels), 2002 (McKinnie), 2007 (Joe Thomas). That means 33% of the time, you should pick an OT instead of a QB.

The reverse is how many years was the QB(s) a hit and the OT's werent: 2001 (Vick), 2004 (Manning, Rivers, Roth), 2005 (Rodgers). 3 out of 10 or 33%.

How many years were both a QB and an OT a hit? 2006 (Young and D'Brick), 2008 (Ryan, Flacco, and Long). 2 out of 10 or 20%.

What does all that mean? Its a toss up and if you think a player is worthy of the pick in the 1st round, it doesn't really matter whether its a QB or OT, you have about the same chance of finding a "hit".

The better question is which means more to your team... having a franchise LT or a franchise QB?

How many teams can we think of that have a franchise QB (from this group) and haven't gone to the playoffs? Lets not count rookies or even 2nd year guys: ZERO

How many teams have a franchise LT but not a franchise QB and have made the playoffs? again leave out players from the past two years: Cleveland

[jamesiscool]

What?

...the black QB's (on that list) actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys...=the black guys succeeded more often the white guys on that list...


...is what I said.

I know this. read it again I agree with you chief.

[Mad Max]

I know this. read it again I agree with you chief.

Oh ok buddy, if you say so. It looked like you thought I was agreeing with "Alabama".

[BidsJr]

WOW that percentage is crap. Anytime you have Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George and Mike Vick as non-busts you have major issues.

Add Trent Dilfer, Byron Leftwich and Kerry Collins to the list and yuck.


Someone was definately stretching to make a point imho.

[RoscoeMagic]

I would take Josh Freeman in a heatbeat.

Vince Young too!

[Mad Max]

WOW that percentage is crap. Anytime you have Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George and Mike Vick as non-busts you have major issues.

Add Trent Dilfer, Byron Leftwich and Kerry Collins to the list and yuck.


Someone was definately stretching to make a point imho.

The author's categorization was subjective as any analysis of this sort would have to be.

Having said that, not sure how you could categorize Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins as busts. They all had a ton of success in the league.

As for Trent Dilfer, he won a Super Bowl...to me that automatically disqualifies him from bust status (I know, the Ravens defense did all the work....etc...doesn't matter, he has a ring). Sexy Rexy has a winning record in the league AND he went to a Super Bowl as a starter...so how can he be a bust?

The only one you could truly argue against is Jeff George...and he played on some epically bad teams.

[BidsJr]

The author's categorization was subjective as any analysis of this sort would have to be.

Having said that, not sure how you could categorize Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins as busts. They all had a ton of success in the league.

As for Trent Dilfer, he won a Super Bowl...to me that automatically disqualifies him from bust status (I know, the Ravens defense did all the work....etc...doesn't matter, he has a ring). Sexy Rexy has a winning record in the league AND he went to a Super Bowl as a starter...so how can he be a bust?

The only one you could truly argue against is Jeff George...and he played on some epically bad teams.


lol

[X-Era]

The author's categorization was subjective as any analysis of this sort would have to be.

Having said that, not sure how you could categorize Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins as busts. They all had a ton of success in the league.

As for Trent Dilfer, he won a Super Bowl...to me that automatically disqualifies him from bust status (I know, the Ravens defense did all the work....etc...doesn't matter, he has a ring). Sexy Rexy has a winning record in the league AND he went to a Super Bowl as a starter...so how can he be a bust?

The only one you could truly argue against is Jeff George...and he played on some epically bad teams.
Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins all took their teams to the playoffs as the starter.

Vick- 2002 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Leftwich- 2005
Culpepper- 2000 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Collins- 1996 and 2000, 2 time pro-bowler

So, I dont know how you can QB your team to the playoffs but still be a bust. They arent all stars or HOF'ers, but they arent busts either.

[Mad Max]

Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins all took their teams to the playoffs as the starter.

Vick- 2002 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Leftwich- 2005
Culpepper- 2000 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Collins- 1996 and 2000, 2 time pro-bowler

So, I dont know how you can QB your team to the playoffs but still be a bust. They arent all stars or HOF'ers, but they arent busts either.

Exactly.

[Zero]

Great link..

[Mr. Pink]

Vick, Culpepper, Leftwich, and Collins all took their teams to the playoffs as the starter.

Vick- 2002 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Leftwich- 2005
Culpepper- 2000 and 2004, 3 time pro-bowler
Collins- 1996 and 2000, 2 time pro-bowler

So, I dont know how you can QB your team to the playoffs but still be a bust. They arent all stars or HOF'ers, but they arent busts either.


Couch lead the Browns to the playoffs as a starter.

He's a bust.