1st round Draft bust analysis

[Mad Max]

So we've been debating the need for a Franchise QB, is the selection worth the risk considering the high number of busts. So I wondered if anyone had compiled a comparative bust list by position, and sure enough someone did. It's 3 years old but it uses 15 years worth of data so I'm sure it extrapolates out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

Most of us probably could have guessed the number 1 and 2 positions on the list QB and WR respectively, but I would have thought that the actual percentages would have been higher.

The article states that the QB position for example is a 53% bust rate, which is for all intents and purposes a coin toss. That to me is not bad odds for the most important position on the field, considering the potential reward if the coin comes up heads. Look over the list and notice how many of the non bust QB's went to or got very close to the Super Bowl, very interesting.

[X-Era]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

So we've been debating the need for a Franchise QB, is the selection worth the risk considering the high number of busts. So I wondered if anyone had compiled a comparative bust list by position, and sure enough someone did. It's 3 years old but it uses 15 years worth of data so I'm sure it extrapolates out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/quarterbacks/070425

Most of us probably could have guessed the number 1 and 2 positions on the list QB and WR respectively, but I would have thought that the actual percentages would have been higher.

The article states that the QB position for example is a 53% bust rate, which is for all intents and purposes a coin toss. That to me is not bad odds for the most important position on the field, considering the potential reward if the coin comes up heads. Look over the list and notice how many of the non bust QB's went to or got very close to the Super Bowl, very interesting.

Timely.

IMO, it changes little to nothing. Teams draft QB's every year, and IMO, this year we will be.

Here's the core data:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

CB's and S's are down there so I guess we should be drafting more of them since we haven't drafted enough corners or taken any safeties lately.

OL is a bit unfair because it lumps G, C, and OT together yet the bust rate for T's is much higher than C's and G's which are usually not taken in the 1st round. That also hold true for S's.

Players Picked in First Round
OL -- 70
DE - 55
CB - 52
WR -- 51
LB -- 48
DT - 42
RB -- 41
QB -- 30
S -- 19

Again, it doesn't matter because teams in need of a QB do it every year despite these numbers.

And again, and most importantly, I didn't make the rules for rebuilding our franchise, Nix did. He has shown and stated he wont be signing the big free agents or trading for big name players, that he will build through the draft.

We need a franchise QB, so that means we must draft one.

BTW, the percentage gets worse in every round after the 1st for all positions as well. So, your most likely to get a good player at any position in the 1st round.

[Mad Max]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

CB's and S's are down there so I guess we should be drafting more of them since we haven't drafted enough corners or taken any safeties lately.

Ya our braintrust (term used very loosely), probably had statistics that mirrored these, hence our abundance of DB picks this decade.

We need a franchise QB, so that means we must draft one.

We can only hope. I think we will. A fresh franchise QB always fills seats, which Ralphie will love...and this time it won't be cost prohibitive either (after the new CBA)...so maybe our luck is finally changing a bit.

[Beebe's Kid]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

Ralphie doesn't need a franchise QB to fill seats...he doesn't even need a serviceable pro.

IF there is a new CBA, and it is in effect, that doesn't only benefit us. Rookie salaries a out of control.

[Buffalo Thriller]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

Never draft a Black QB

[Mad Max]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

Ralphie doesn't need a franchise QB to fill seats...he doesn't even need a serviceable pro.
.........

We'll see. A 20% decline in season ticket sales is a pretty loud and clear statement by the fanbase IMO.

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

But if you hit on one you have the most valuable asset for years.

[jamesiscool]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

Never draft a Black QB

thats a little aggressive. i dont think ski color matters when it comes to qb play. go back to alabama and kiss yur cousin mother.

[Mad Max]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

thats a little aggressive. i dont think ski color matters when it comes to qb play. go back to alabama and kiss yur cousin mother.

lol, ignorant is another word. A little simple math shows that the black QB's actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys (small sample size notwithstanding).

[better days]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

lol, ignorant is another word. A little simple math shows that the black QB's actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys (small sample size notwithstanding).

I would take Josh Freeman in a heatbeat.

[jamesiscool]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

mcnabb vince young vick freeman and hell jason campbell are all better than any qb on our roster imo. the success rate for white qb's may be better than "black" qb's but honestly how many qb's play in a pro style nfl offense offense where their skillset is geared towards the nfl's style of play?

now how many of them aren't white? its a fraction of a fraction. hence why the success rate for white qb's is much better. its simple arithmetic.

[Oaf]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

We should have been picking LBs two of the last three 1st picks we've used on RBs. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...backers/070425

[X-Era]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

We should have been picking LBs two of the last three 1st picks we've used on RBs. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...backers/070425

I could seriously watch that dude fall down the stairs over and over.

[Mad Max]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

mcnabb vince young vick freeman and hell jason campbell are all better than any qb on our roster imo. the success rate for white qb's may be better than "black" qb's but honestly how many qb's play in a pro style nfl offense offense where their skillset is geared towards the nfl's style of play?

now how many of them aren't white? its a fraction of a fraction. hence why the success rate for white qb's is much better. its simple arithmetic.

What?

...the black QB's (on that list) actually have a significantly lower failure rate than the white guys...=the black guys succeeded more often the white guys on that list...


...is what I said.

[X-Era]

Re: 1st round Draft bust analysis

BTW, did you go through the list on the OL? There are a lot of players that he claims arent busts that are far from studs.