Value of Draft Pick - Is Something Wrong?

[malo]

I'd say Lynch is above average talent, no?

I’d like to know what percentage of 4th round draft picks end up being better than average. I’d be willing to guess it’s a small percentage. I don’t see why the value of a proven talent isn’t more than the gamble of a draft pick. Same with the Randy Moss trade. I think it’s a product of the monkey see, monkey do, behavior that’s rampant in the NFL. I don't understand why the value of a draft pick is so high.

[Jan Reimers]

I'd say Lynch is above average talent, no?

I’d like to know what percentage of 4th round draft picks end up being better than average. I’d be willing to guess it’s a small percentage. I don’t see why the value of a proven talent isn’t more than the gamble of a draft pick. Same with the Randy Moss trade. I think it’s a product of the monkey see, monkey do, behavior that’s rampant in the NFL. I don't understand why the value of a draft pick is so high.
For once, I agree with you, and have said pretty much the same thing. I don't understand dumping a 24 year old, power runner with 2 1,000 rushing seasons for a couple of mid/low draft picks who may never amount to crap.

[Ebenezer]

1,000 yard seasons don't mean anything any more. You can never run for 100 yards in a game and still get a 1000.

[Stewie]

You guys are assuming there are no extenuating circumstances. In NE, Randy didn't want to be there without a new contract, and it looks like they didn't want it be a distraction. Maybe Marshawn just wore out his welcome in Buffalo. It happens.

[Mr. Pink]

Lynch is and was a dime a dozen NFL RB.

They can be found in every round of the NFL draft.

[ServoBillieves]

Lynch is and was a dime a dozen NFL RB.

They can be found in every round of the NFL draft.

Ryan Torain

[Buddo]

I'd say Lynch is above average talent, no?

I’d like to know what percentage of 4th round draft picks end up being better than average. I’d be willing to guess it’s a small percentage. I don’t see why the value of a proven talent isn’t more than the gamble of a draft pick. Same with the Randy Moss trade. I think it’s a product of the monkey see, monkey do, behavior that’s rampant in the NFL. I don't understand why the value of a draft pick is so high.

There are probably a plethora of reasons. You can start with the one where he's got a target on his back from his 'previous'.
Additional picks come in very useful when a team actually has a specific player in mind.
Joe Montana was a 4th rounder I believe....
Every team needs guys who simply 'do a job'. You get these with the mid to lower round picks (in theory).
Draft picks after the first round, work out to be fairly inexpensive in the short term.
Attitudes, mindsets etc. can also come into play, especially if there's a feeling that someone can become a distraction. Team 'chemistry' is important.

[better days]

Anyone that thinks this was a good trade name me one 4th rnd pick in the last 10 years by the Bills that would be better than Lynch.

If Nix is as bad at drafting as some on this board think, this was a BAD trade.

Unless Nix has a great draft next year, I will join the Nix haters club because of this trade & the Kelsey contract.

[Ed]

You don't think trading for a guy that's one bad decision away from an 8-16 game suspension is a gamble?

[Ed]

Anyone that thinks this was a good trade name me one 4th rnd pick in the last 10 years by the Bills that would be better than Lynch.

If Nix is as bad at drafting as some on this board think, this was a BAD trade.

Unless Nix has a great draft next year, I will join the Nix haters club because of this trade & the Kelsey contract.
Well that's not really saying much since we haven't drafted well in any rounds over the last 10 years.

[RoscoeMagic]

Anyone that thinks this was a good trade name me one 4th rnd pick in the last 10 years by the Bills that would be better than Lynch.

If Nix is as bad at drafting as some on this board think, this was a BAD trade.

Unless Nix has a great draft next year, I will join the Nix haters club because of this trade & the Kelsey contract.

Terrence McGee.

[cocamide]

1,000 yard seasons don't mean anything any more. You can never run for 100 yards in a game and still get a 1000.

Thank you. One thousand yards can be achieved by averaging 62.5 yards per game; it's not very impressive.

We had three pretty damn good running backs, and with all of the holes on this squad, we should at least try to get something for one of those three backs and try to plug one of those holes. Will the fourth round pick amount to something great? Probably not. But in the long run, Lynch wasn't part of the plan, so why not trade him? We can at least use the pick to help plug one of our holes on the O or D lines.

[Mr. Pink]

Anyone that thinks this was a good trade name me one 4th rnd pick in the last 10 years by the Bills that would be better than Lynch.

If Nix is as bad at drafting as some on this board think, this was a BAD trade.

Unless Nix has a great draft next year, I will join the Nix haters club because of this trade & the Kelsey contract.


I can name a 5th round RB in the past 10 years that's just as good as Lynch that we drafted.

Sammy Morris.

Another dime a dozen average NFL RB.

[OpIv37]

Lots of things going on here.

First, player for player trades are very rare in the NFL, and current players are almost always valued less than draft picks. Ex, Lynch was a first-rounder 3 years ago, but we'd never get a first-rounder for him now. That's just how it goes.

Second, some of you overrate Lynch's performance. 1000 yards a season is 62.5 yards a game. That's nothing spectacular. And while he's looking better, some people forget his complete decline last year. There is no guarantee he will ever return to that 1000 yard form.

Third, let's not forget that Lynch already has two strikes, which also lowers his value.

If NE got a 3rd for Moss, I'd say getting a 4th plus a conditional later round pick for Lynch is pretty damn good.

And in Moss' case, this is the last year of his contract. To keep him beyond this season, Minny will have to negotiate a multi-year deal with a HUGE cap hit. That lowers his trade value too because it adds risk to the team obtaining him.

[Pinkerton Security]

I agree with the OP though, this is becoming weird...

Santonio Holmes for a 4th rounder
Randy Moss for a 3rd and 7th
Marshawn for a 4th and conditional

Im sure there are more instances, but it seems like draft pick values are a bit on the steep side. However, when compared to these other 2 trades, we got a pretty good deal.

[Stewie]

Lots of things going on here.

First, player for player trades are very rare in the NFL, and current players are almost always valued less than draft picks. Ex, Lynch was a first-rounder 3 years ago, but we'd never get a first-rounder for him now. That's just how it goes.

Second, some of you overrate Lynch's performance. 1000 yards a season is 62.5 yards a game. That's nothing spectacular. And while he's looking better, some people forget his complete decline last year. There is no guarantee he will ever return to that 1000 yard form.

Third, let's not forget that Lynch already has two strikes, which also lowers his value.

If NE got a 3rd for Moss, I'd say getting a 4th plus a conditional later round pick for Lynch is pretty damn good.

And in Moss' case, this is the last year of his contract. To keep him beyond this season, Minny will have to negotiate a multi-year deal with a HUGE cap hit. That lowers his trade value too because it adds risk to the team obtaining him.

I agree with most everything but minny does not have to worry aobut the cap. There is no cap now, and there's no guarantee there's going to be a cap in the future. They could give him a fat bonus and slim annual salaries

[Jan Reimers]

I agree with the OP though, this is becoming weird...

Santonio Holmes for a 4th rounder
Randy Moss for a 3rd and 7th
Marshawn for a 4th and conditional

Im sure there are more instances, but it seems like draft pick values are a bit on the steep side. However, when compared to these other 2 trades, we got a pretty good deal.
I think it was Randy Moss and a 7th for a 3rd, which makes the Lynch deal look even better.

[Pinkerton Security]

I think it was Randy Moss and a 7th for a 3rd, which makes the Lynch deal look even better.

o wow really? damn...but yeah this makes my point even more relevant!

[OpIv37]

I agree with most everything but minny does not have to worry aobut the cap. There is no cap now, and there's no guarantee there's going to be a cap in the future. They could give him a fat bonus and slim annual salaries

even if there is no cap, they're basically committing to a huge amount of money to keep him without knowing exactly how much, so there is still an element of risk there.

[Extremebillsfan247]

I'd say Lynch is above average talent, no?

I’d like to know what percentage of 4th round draft picks end up being better than average. I’d be willing to guess it’s a small percentage. I don’t see why the value of a proven talent isn’t more than the gamble of a draft pick. Same with the Randy Moss trade. I think it’s a product of the monkey see, monkey do, behavior that’s rampant in the NFL. I don't understand why the value of a draft pick is so high.
Both players have shady histories in the league. With Lynch its a problem of trying to stay out of trouble in the offseason. With Moss its all bad attitude. Reputations like those hurt your trade value no matter how good of a player you may be. JMO

[Stewie]

even if there is no cap, they're basically committing to a huge amount of money to keep him without knowing exactly how much, so there is still an element of risk there.

some, but not anymore risk than risking your entire season on convincing a diva 39 year old qb to show up one more time...

[dannyek71]

Anyone that thinks this was a good trade name me one 4th rnd pick in the last 10 years by the Bills that would be better than Lynch.

If Nix is as bad at drafting as some on this board think, this was a BAD trade.

Unless Nix has a great draft next year, I will join the Nix haters club because of this trade & the Kelsey contract.
The Bills haven't drafted a decent player in the last 10 years outside of Kyle Williams. Forget the round.