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patmoran2006
10-26-2010, 11:01 AM
People have searched high and low for the biggest difference between the 2009 Buffalo Bills and the winless version that’s dropped six straight to begin this season. The front office is supervised by a new general manager, the coaching staff almost entirely new and the team is in a laborious process of trying to revamp the defense via a largely (to this point) fruitless 3-4 transformation.

Terrell Owens is gone, as is Aaron Schobel, Josh Reed and most recently Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch.

But when you look at the numbers and how they factor into games, the biggest reason the Bills are 0-6 and last year’s six-win season seems like a Super Bowl run by comparison, is pretty darn obvious.

Interceptions—- or I should say lack of them.


Last year by the time Buffalo concluded their sixth game in the Meadowlands against the Jets, they had 10 interceptions under the belt, including an absurd six in a road game against the Jets alone. Two of those picks through six games, one each by Schobel and Donte Whitner, were returned for touchdowns. The Bills would finish the 2009 seasons with 28 interceptions; first in the AFC and behind only Green Bay for the tops in the entire NFL.

This year is a drastically different tale. Six games into 2010 and Buffalo finds themselves last… dead last in the NFL with only one interception. To draw a comparison, DeAngelo Hall had four times the amount of picks in one game Sunday that the Bills collectively have as a team for the entire season.

Need this be clearer? There have been 212 interceptions tossed in the NFL as of Monday afternoon. The Bills are responsible for exactly one of them.

The Bills secondary has been entirely banned from the interception party. Their one turnover via the air came courtesy of linebacker Andra Davis, who was the beneficiary of a tipped pass early in the Jacksonville game.

The biggest culprit thus far has been talented safety Jairus Byrd. Right now if they were to insert a picture next to the definition of “sophomore slump”, Byrd’s mug shot would fill it. Last year at this time Byrd was in a first year groove unlike anything this organization had seen before. He was up to three interceptions by the time the sixth game was over, and would be up to eight when Buffalo’s ninth game (against Houston) was completed. He finished the season with a team rookie record nine interceptions and was voted into the Pro Bowl.

This year he can’t buy a football to reach his hands. It’s been rare for him to even be in position to pick off a pass and when he has, he hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity. One could argue that team’s have been staying away from him far more this season, but that holds only a limited amount of water. He’s been thrown at plenty over the middle as the Bills are proving weekly they’re powerless at defending the middle of the field.
He’s far from the only one with troubles.

Leodis McKelvin picked off two passes as a rookie in 2008 and seemed prime for a breakout season after missing most of last year with a broken leg. He’s done nothing this year. Ditto for Drayton Florence and oft-injured Terrence McGee. George Wilson had four interceptions last year but hasn’t come close to one in 2010.

And don’t even get me started about Whitner.

Of course, it’s not entirely the secondary’s fault. The foundation for a high number of interceptions often stems with a strong, or at least respectable pass rush that accompanies it. The Bills have produced just eight sacks in six games, the fourth-lowest in the NFL. Last season’s pass rush hardly represented the Pittsburgh Steel Curtain of the 1970’s, but the unit did get to the quarterback 32 times.

We’re six games into the season and there is an eight-way tie for the Bills sack lead. That may sound good at first glance, but the problem is none of the leaders have more than one. Heck, an aging Schobel still had 10 sacks last year— maybe losing him hurt the team more than we figured, though to the Bills credit it was he, not the organization, that cut ties.

For all the imaginative play calling and high profile analysis that comes with professional football, the formula for winning in generally quite simple. You win the turnover battle and the odds jump considerably that you’ll come out victorious.

Interceptions are a critical part of the turnover formula and to this point, the team has failed miserably.

Unfortunately, with Florence and Whitner’s contracts running out and McGee proving to be a bigger injury liability with each passing year, it looks like secondary help may have to be added to the Bills already mammoth list of offseason needs.

TacklingDummy
10-26-2010, 11:24 AM
Simple, get pressure on the QB and picks will come.

patmoran2006
10-26-2010, 11:31 AM
Simple, get pressure on the QB and picks will come.
I wouldn't call last year's front seven, pressure-the-QB driven team either, and they still had 28 picks.

trapezeus
10-26-2010, 11:34 AM
even without a great pass rush last year, the bills were gashed alive to the tune of 200+ yards rushing. teams literally don't have to throw on us. and everyone is coming up for run support.

and until we actually get a lb to run with a RB or a TE occassionally, safeties aren't going to be roaming around taking names. They'll be coming way up to play those two positions.

I hear what you are saying, but i also think a stronger front seven will fix this.

DraftBoy
10-26-2010, 11:38 AM
Im thinking last year was more being in the right place and getting the right ball bounce other than actual skillful INT's.

How many of Byrd's picks were off deflections? While Im not saying it doesnt take skill to be in the right spot, because it does, however it impossible to always know how the ball will bounce off a guys hand.

justasportsfan
10-26-2010, 11:52 AM
OUr db's are struggling with the 3-4.

Extremebillsfan247
10-26-2010, 12:14 PM
If you can't stop the run, teams will be less likely to throw the ball. That means no pass rush, with out a pass rush, QBs will pick you apart all day. However, it works both ways. If you can't cover receivers, and allow them to consistently get open, you still have no pass rush because it doesn't take long in the NFL for a QB to find the open guy. Our DBs this year are either underachieving, or this is just how they play, and overachieved last year giving everyone the false impression that they were of any good. JMO

naugem
10-26-2010, 12:23 PM
I think it has more to do with the change of coaches and schemes.

hydro
10-26-2010, 12:25 PM
OUr db's are struggling with the 3-4.

The 3-4 that we never use?

NC-BILLS44
10-26-2010, 12:26 PM
Simple equation: Pressure QB = INTs ### No Pressure = No INTs

Extremebillsfan247
10-26-2010, 12:28 PM
I think it has more to do with the change of coaches and schemes.You are right, that does have a lot to do with the struggles on defense as a whole. George Edwards has forced a lot of these players into positions they haven't played before and expect them to beat some of the better offenses in the NFL. That's just not happening. I think its why we are seeing such a disparity in points and yardage gains against us.

Extremebillsfan247
10-26-2010, 12:30 PM
The bottom line is this, we need a better LB core. Without that, we will continue to struggle on defense in a 3-4. Our entire unit of LBs suck.

McBFLO
10-26-2010, 12:31 PM
You get the idea for this article from Chris Brown? He wrote basically the same thing at 9:30 this morning on his blog.

cookie G
10-26-2010, 12:59 PM
Im thinking last year was more being in the right place and getting the right ball bounce other than actual skillful INT's.

How many of Byrd's picks were off deflections? While Im not saying it doesnt take skill to be in the right spot, because it does, however it impossible to always know how the ball will bounce off a guys hand.

Well, you've got the bolded part right.

They are down substantially in nearly every passing statistical category from last year. YPG is up nearly 50, YPA increased from 6.0 to 7.7, they've already given up as many passing TD's as they did all of last year. Opposing passing efficiency has doubled from last year.

They didn't all just forget how to defend against the pass in one year. People are getting behind the DB's (and the LB's), more than they had at any time in the last 3 years.

The guy playing the chess game with the defense is screwing up....

badly.

Ingtar33
10-26-2010, 02:01 PM
I wouldn't call last year's front seven, pressure-the-QB driven team either, and they still had 28 picks.

32 sacks were good for 18th last year... 2 per game.

we're not even managing a sack per game right now.

we couldn't stop the run last year either

PromoTheRobot
10-26-2010, 02:09 PM
Great article. Can always count on you to find the turd in the punch bowl. Maybe after you get down moaning about the lack of picks on the Bills you can do a story about all the UDFA gems we do find, or is positive stuff not what you're looking for?

PTR

RockStar36
10-26-2010, 03:06 PM
"Interceptions are overrated." - Donte Whitner

Jan Reimers
10-26-2010, 03:20 PM
I'm disturbed by the title of this piece. It should read, "Bills' Lack of Picks Is Disturbing."

SquishDaFish
10-26-2010, 03:28 PM
Not to mention if you look it up Im sure teams are running on us more then passing

patmoran2006
10-26-2010, 03:36 PM
You get the idea for this article from Chris Brown? He wrote basically the same thing at 9:30 this morning on his blog.
This was published at midnite last night, so no.

patmoran2006
10-26-2010, 03:37 PM
Great article. Can always count on you to find the turd in the punch bowl. Maybe after you get down moaning about the lack of picks on the Bills you can do a story about all the UDFA gems we do find, or is positive stuff not what you're looking for?

PTR

1- When you are 0-6 and on your way to your single-worst defensive season in the history of the franchise, it's not easy to find positive things to write about.

2. Having said that, I did write a "positive" piece following the game Sunday night.

jamze132
10-27-2010, 06:34 AM
Pat, don't blame the secondary for a lack of picks. Just look to the sideline for the little guy with a headset on who, as a matter of fact, has a dumbfounded and confused look on his face. George Edwards has no business whatsoever running an NFL defense. His players are out of position for 60 min each week.

TrEd FTW
10-27-2010, 06:42 AM
Great article. Can always count on you to find the turd in the punch bowl. Maybe after you get down moaning about the lack of picks on the Bills you can do a story about all the UDFA gems we do find, or is positive stuff not what you're looking for?

PTR

You're really whining about a lack of positive articles for an 0-6 team? Mind-blowing.

superbills
10-27-2010, 09:24 AM
This scheme, regardless of whether players are lining up in a 3-4, 4-3, nickel, dime, half-dollar, whatever, has players confused and out of position. Up for debate could be whether this is the fault of the players or the coach (I'll go on record saying it's the coach), but no matter whose fault it is, our defensive players are constantly second-guessing themselves, thus not putting them in position to make plays on the ball.

patmoran2006
10-27-2010, 08:18 PM
Look, Im going to concede the system is a mess, they have no pass rush, teams run on at will and our DB's often have to come up and focus on supporting it.

Having said all that, it's still laughable no matter which way you spin it that in six games a NFL secondary doesnt have a SINGLE INTERCEPTION.. Step in front of a ball, catch a break, make a great one on one play, something.

And this secondary has done nothing.

Extremebillsfan247
10-28-2010, 05:52 AM
1- When you are 0-6 and on your way to your single-worst defensive season in the history of the franchise, it's not easy to find positive things to write about.

2. Having said that, I did write a "positive" piece following the game Sunday night.

Now your starting to emulate Sully, it's pretty scary. Do I dare say, trick or treat? lol When your upset with THIS Bills team going 0-6, it only means you actually thought they had a viable team to begin with which was never true. Everyone to his mother on this board, and every other Bills board already knew before the season began that this schedule wasn't going to be a cake walk. Yet a lot of you are so shocked and surprised by it, that its spawned some kind outrageous negativity that is really way overblown. JMO Rebuilding is what it sounds like.

jamze132
10-28-2010, 07:34 AM
Look, Im going to concede the system is a mess, they have no pass rush, teams run on at will and our DB's often have to come up and focus on supporting it.

Having said all that, it's still laughable no matter which way you spin it that in six games a NFL secondary doesnt have a SINGLE INTERCEPTION.. Step in front of a ball, catch a break, make a great one on one play, something.

And this secondary has done nothing.
Obviously you missed the part where the rest of us have noticed that the players aren't able to even catch a break since they are no where near the ball. Again, check the DC. He's the biggest problem with everything on that side of the ball.

Thief
10-28-2010, 08:52 AM
I don't get this article. You mention that this same secondary was a ball hawk last year, you mention our drop off in QB pressures, and you conclude that they need secondary help?

I am pretty sure that the biggest reason they aren't getting turnovers is becasue this defense is based on QB pressures. It isn't like the cover II where you sit back and wait patiently for them to make a mistake. It calls for more single coverage and pressure on the QB. This, in theory, should make them create even more turnovers. However, there has been no pressure at all.

The biggest difference is clear. Sacks and pressures, not interceptions. The lack of interceptions is just a symptom of the real ailment.

homeslice5484
10-28-2010, 04:25 PM
We've had so many opportunities to get picks though, we just aren't in the right spot or we drop them. Good teams make the easy picks, Whitner should have had a few already.