Why do people keep saying "It doesn't look like Luck is coming out"?

[Thief]

OK, QB is on the tops of the Bills list, according to Ralph C. Wilson. Luck is the best QB according to 90% of the experts, fans, and writers.

But, why do I keep hearing/reading over and over again that it doesn't look like Luck is going to come out? How exactly does that look? Or, how exactly does it not look like Luck is coming out?

[DraftBoy]

-He has struggled at times this season
-His coach is no fan of ours
-He is only a RS SO
-He has said he wants to get his degree first
-With CBA uncertainty there is less incentive to leave early

[Thief]

-He has struggled at times this season
-His coach is no fan of ours
-He is only a RS SO
-He has said he wants to get his degree first
-With CBA uncertainty there is less incentive to leave earlySo you are saying it is total speculation? Wouldn't that describe every underclassman QB? And, aren't there even bigger reasons to come out, rather than stay, especially if you are still projected #1?

[DraftBoy]

So you are saying it is total speculation? Wouldn't that describe every underclassman QB? And, aren't there even bigger reasons to come out, rather than stay, especially if you are still projected #1?

No Im saying its educated guessing. There are factors that exist now that didnt exist before that are negatively affecting him in the eyes of fans.

There could be, but the same was true for Bradford and he saw no reason to rush it and while he got hurt, he still ended up being #1.

[wmoz11]

The only substantial bit of fact is that he says he wants to graduate first. Now, he could be on track to do so for all we know.

All the other crap mentioned is speculation at best.

[mrbojanglezs]

The only substantial bit of fact is that he says he wants to graduate first. Now, he could be on track to do so for all we know.

All the other crap mentioned is speculation at best.


heard he can graduate this summer with a few summer classes

[TacklingDummy]

He'll come out, why? $$$

It's not like we are talking about a borderline Top 10 pick, Luck will go in the first 2 selections. There is no reason for him to chance injury or playing bad by staying in college.

[trapezeus]

well, i think if the rookies are sacrificed like every expects in the CBA, the money (guaranteed portion will be smaller).

Then if he wants to graduate, it might be worth it to him.
also if they really do hate the bills, he could gamble that a different team is worse than us and ends up with the top pick.

i know nothing about college football and what not, but i think the money may not be as influential as it once was.

[DraftBoy]

He'll come out, why? $$$

It's not like we are talking about a borderline Top 10 pick, Luck will go in the first 2 selections. There is no reason for him to chance injury or playing bad by staying in college.

Bradford dispells that argument and its almost a guarantee that a new CBA will not institute an immediate hard rookie cap.

[DraftBoy]

heard he can graduate this summer with a few summer classes

Who did you hear that from?

Most academic records are kept private.

[Extremebillsfan247]

I'm not too concerned about whether or not he decides to come out. There are other options available if he decides to not come out. We will all know soon enough. If he does come out, and we are fortunate enough to have the top pick, he will most likely end up as a Bill, if not then I'm not going to stress on it.

[better days]

Bradford dispells that argument and its almost a guarantee that a new CBA will not institute an immediate hard rookie cap.

Others have stayed in school & were drafted lower than if they came out early, Brohm is an example. I disagree about the cap. It is a guarantee that any new cba will include an immediate rookie cap. The owners have already said as much.

[DraftBoy]

Others have stayed in school & were drafted lower than if they came out early, Brohm is an example. I disagree about the cap. It is a guarantee that any new cba will include an immediate rookie cap. The owners have already said as much.

No its not. There will be a rookie cap but right now it looks like it may be put gradually into place.

[better days]

No its not. There will be a rookie cap but right now it looks like it may be put gradually into place.

What is your source on this matter? EVERYTHING I have heard & read says otherwise.

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

He'll come out, why? $$$

It's not like we are talking about a borderline Top 10 pick, Luck will go in the first 2 selections. There is no reason for him to chance injury or playing bad by staying in college.

Bradford got hurt & still got the money. Can't see that happening again. Luck might want to avoid a rookie wage scale. It's coming.:whoosh:

[Mad Max]

Bradford dispells that argument and its almost a guarantee that a new CBA will not institute an immediate hard rookie cap.

Bradford had a 50 TD, Heisman winning, National Championship Game appearance season the season before his injury. The season prior to that season was pretty spectacular as well.

Those were some substantial laurels to rest on which carried him to his #1 overall selection. It didn't hurt that there were no other name QB's in the same draft either.

If Luck gets injured he won't have anywhere near Bradford's level of accomplishments to buoy his stock. He'll also have at least 1-2 other name QB's that he'll be competing with for draft position. That's all assuming that a potential injury isn't career threatening.

If he is consensus #1 after this season, he would be foolish to stay in school, and Harbaugh would not be acting in his best interest steering him away from the Buffalo Bills.

[Buffalo Thriller]

If Luck doesnt show up, Locker or Mallet will be ours.

[tampabay25690]

So you are saying it is total speculation? Wouldn't that describe every underclassman QB? And, aren't there even bigger reasons to come out, rather than stay, especially if you are still projected #1?

They say it all over National publications...
When the time comes we will know if he does or not.
If I was a player I would want to know what is going on with the labor agreement 1st..

[Ingtar33]

there are 3 reasons people are "saying" it looks like Luck isn't coming out, 1 is an objective reason, the other two are subjective. We'll start with the objective reason Luck won't come out.

- Luck has stated he will not leave college until he graduates. Period. End of discussion. If he doesn't have enough credits to graduate before NFL training camp starts he won't come out in this draft. This is his 3rd year in college. There is no way to know if he has enough credits to graduate this summer... but somehow I doubt it, having been a student athlete myself, (granted I am a dumbass) it seems unlikely he will be ready to graduate early.

now for the subjective reasons.

- Jim Harbaugh, Jim Kelly, Ralph Wilson, and the Buffalo Bills - Harbaugh hates Kelly, which might lead him to advise Luck to stay out of this draft if the Bills are sitting on the no.1 pick. Secondly, the Bills are not a stellar franchise, neither a top spot for free agents nor an "ideal" spot to live for a young multi-millionaire... throw in the fact luck has publically claimed he won't enter the draft till he graduates, and he has a ready made excuse to avoid playing for the Bills. If he has any interest in leaving a mark in NFL history books, he would be well advised to stay away from a middling franchise with a crappy owner and uncertain future.

- Uncertainty about the CBA and the 2011 season. if the 2011 season is going to be canceled or interrupted in a lockout or strike, if the whole CBA is going to be rewritten radically (remember the NHL CBA included a retroactive pay cut to existing contracts) then he might just be best off to stay in school in 2011, have fun with his friends, graduate from college, maybe contend for a national title and a Heisman trophy, and just avoid the headache of a prolonged work stoppage and no pay ruining his rookie season.

[Albany,n.y.]

Harbaugh has a fight with Kelly many years ago & he "hates" Kelly. Really? Where's the evidence?
Harbaugh "is no fan of ours" because he thought it was in his best interests to stay where he had a top QB instead of taking the mess with no QB that Gailey took. Really? Where's the evidence that staying with a winner & the best QB in college, instead of going to a pro team with no QB means he dislikes the Bills?

[Ingtar33]

Harbaugh has a fight with Kelly many years ago & he "hates" Kelly. Really? Where's the evidence?
Harbaugh hates the Bills because he thought it was in his best interests to stay where he had a top QB instead of taking the mess with no QB that Gailey took. Really? Where's the evidence that staying with a winner & the best QB in college, instead of going to a pro team with no QB means he hates the Bills?

obviously you don't know what objective and subjective mean.

[TacklingDummy]

If Luck leaves he'll probably be the #1 pick.
If Luck stays he'll be drafted after Barkley.
Costing him millions.

[X-Era]

-He has struggled at times this season
-His coach is no fan of ours
-He is only a RS SO
-He has said he wants to get his degree first
-With CBA uncertainty there is less incentive to leave earlyWhat he said.

[Thief]

there are 3 reasons people are "saying" it looks like Luck isn't coming out, 1 is an objective reason, the other two are subjective. We'll start with the objective reason Luck won't come out.

- Luck has stated he will not leave college until he graduates. Period. End of discussion. If he doesn't have enough credits to graduate before NFL training camp starts he won't come out in this draft. This is his 3rd year in college. There is no way to know if he has enough credits to graduate this summer... but somehow I doubt it, having been a student athlete myself, (granted I am a dumbass) it seems unlikely he will be ready to graduate early.

now for the subjective reasons.

- Jim Harbaugh, Jim Kelly, Ralph Wilson, and the Buffalo Bills - Harbaugh hates Kelly, which might lead him to advise Luck to stay out of this draft if the Bills are sitting on the no.1 pick. Secondly, the Bills are not a stellar franchise, neither a top spot for free agents nor an "ideal" spot to live for a young multi-millionaire... throw in the fact luck has publically claimed he won't enter the draft till he graduates, and he has a ready made excuse to avoid playing for the Bills. If he has any interest in leaving a mark in NFL history books, he would be well advised to stay away from a middling franchise with a crappy owner and uncertain future.

- Uncertainty about the CBA and the 2011 season. if the 2011 season is going to be canceled or interrupted in a lockout or strike, if the whole CBA is going to be rewritten radically (remember the NHL CBA included a retroactive pay cut to existing contracts) then he might just be best off to stay in school in 2011, have fun with his friends, graduate from college, maybe contend for a national title and a Heisman trophy, and just avoid the headache of a prolonged work stoppage and no pay ruining his rookie season.Thank you, nice reply. However, I don't buy the second (I know you didn't represent it as fact). What head coach wants to lose his best player? And, what head coach could really tell one not to come out if they were going to be #1? I don't think a college head coach could risk his rep telling a student he wouldn't want to play for a team because he got into a fight with their QB over a decade ago, and because their town doesn't have enough clubs. I hear this one all the time too, I just don't see it. I see every coach in college with any integrity reluctlantly telling his QB to declare if they are a clear #1.

I heard around the way that his father is strongly advising him to take the money.

Draftboy, if the rookie cap will be implemently slowly, would that be one more huge reason not to wait?

[don137]

If the Bills have the #1 overall pick and next season is canceled I wonder if the Bills would get the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Personally, I highly doubt it but who knows. If that does happen then they could really be in a good spot ( and have a lot of money tied up in two players).

[X-Era]

If the Bills have the #1 overall pick and next season is canceled I wonder if the Bills would get the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Personally, I highly doubt it but who knows. If that does happen then they could really be in a good spot ( and have a lot of money tied up in two players).I have heard that's how it works.

[YardRat]

That's the way I understand it....draft order remains the same.

Don't underestimate the motivation behind Luck's comment regarding graduating before declaring...it's a nice fallback if the draft picture doesn't look too rosy in his eyes when the pecking order is in place.

[Nighthawk]

Bradford dispells that argument and its almost a guarantee that a new CBA will not institute an immediate hard rookie cap.

It is NEVER good to not come out when the hype is at the highest. Makes ZERO sense.

[Dr. Lecter]

If there is no 2011 season, nobody really knows what the 2012 draft order will be like, but I would expect some kind of NHL like solution with a weighted lottery.

I would also expect the Patriots to somehow win that lottery

[Dr. Lecter]

If Luck leaves he'll probably be the #1 pick.
If Luck stays he'll be drafted after Barkley.
Costing him millions.
You really think he will go after Barkley? Really? Based on what?

[Nighthawk]

If there is no 2011 season, nobody really knows what the 2012 draft order will be like, but I would expect some kind of NHL like solution with a weighted lottery.

I would also expect the Patriots to somehow win that lottery

Ughh, that would probably be correct.

[chernobylwraiths]

If there is no 2011 season, nobody really knows what the 2012 draft order will be like, but I would expect some kind of NHL like solution with a weighted lottery.

I would also expect the Patriots to somehow win that lottery

Bull****! The Cowboys or Redskins win that lottery with the Jets and Giants also high.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Bradford had a 50 TD, Heisman winning, National Championship Game appearance season the season before his injury. The season prior to that season was pretty spectacular as well.
So did Jason White but he couldn't even get a tryout.

[Mad Max]

So did Jason White but he couldn't even get a tryout.

Not sure if there's a point in there somewhere.

But Jason White, was no Sam Bradford. Bradford has prototype height, weight, arm strength ALONG with his accomplishments.

Some guys can have great accomplishments in college (like White, Heupel, Leak, etc) without the measurables, others can have prototype measurables and few accomplishments.

Most of those two categories get little NFL love, for good reason. Guys that combine the two get drafted, and when the accomplishments AND measureables look like Bradford's, then they go get drafted #1...even after an injury riddled prior season.

[bosshogg21]

I will say this till I'm blue in the face. If he is the consensus no. 1 pick...he comes out. He can only do harm to his ranking and money. I think the potential lock out is the only thing that could change that. I don't think he would want to come out and sit for a year if he didn't have to.

[Thief]

If he came out and got the max money, and there was a lock out, wouldn't he just fininsh his degree and get the best of both?

[X-Era]

I think Luck would be in consideration for the #1 overall pick in any year at this point. So, coming out shouldn't be based on that for him. Risk of injury would be something he should carefully weigh.

As for the notion that he would stay if he's "stuck" with the Bills, thats silly. Any team picking that high has a steep road to climb. I cant see a prospect staying so that he can score the Browns over the Bills for example. I cant see that.

I think there is a real chance that Luck comes out and that we would draft him.

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

So did Jason White but he couldn't even get a tryout.
Jason White had two very bum knees. That's why he couldn't play pro ball. He also had 2 tryouts: Titans & Chiefs. Get your facts straight.:ignore:

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Jason White had two very bum knees. That's why he couldn't play pro ball. He also had 2 tryouts: Titans & Chiefs. Get your facts straight.:ignore:
It's called hyperbole, Taylor. Something you should know about. :down: And, if I recall, it wasn't until several weeks after the draft that anybody decided to give him anything resembling a chance.

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

It's called hyperbole, Taylor. Something you should know about. :down: And, if I recall, it wasn't until several weeks after the draft that anybody decided to give him anything resembling a chance.
My name is Doc Zaius, not Taylor. I simply corrected a falsehood that White had received no tryouts and yes it was weeks after the draft. White was quite a mobile QB before all the knee problems began. A real shame.:whistle:

[X-Era]

Bounced more of the off topic stuff to the Spam Board:

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=197431

[TacklingDummy]

You really think he will go after Barkley? Really? Based on what?
Skills, performance, and potential.

[TacklingDummy]

Plus I slept at a Quality Inn last night.

[elltrain22]

-He has struggled at times this season
-His coach is no fan of ours
-He is only a RS SO
-He has said he wants to get his degree first
-With CBA uncertainty there is less incentive to leave early

Not to debuke anything you ever say, b/c you're probably right, but he's is the consensus #1 pick, and I just think its very hard for a guy to walk away from possibly making multi-millions. You can say Locker did it last year, but look what happen to him this year. Locker, went from being a probable #1 overall pick in last years draft to a top 10 maybe 15 pick.

With that said, he better go out, b/c I love this kid in a Bills unie.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Not sure if there's a point in there somewhere. Neither am I, but if there was a point, it's that there is a real risk of lowering your stock by going back for another season at the college level.

[X-Era]

And with the 1st pick in the 2011 draft, the Buffalo Bills select...