Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

[HAMMER]

This team could beat the Lions, possibly the Bengals, and maybe upset a division foe (Miami). Are thirteen losses going to land us in the #1 slot? Not sure it will. Dallas has a rough schedule and a second string QB, Carolina has a rough schedule and is playing musical QB's. I know we are in the drivers seat but will we stay there? I don't think so.

Dallas' Remaining Schedule
Sun, Nov. 14 @ N.Y. Giants (FOX) 3:15 PM Travel
Sun, Nov. 21 DETROIT (FOX) presented by Dr Pepper Noon* Purchase
Thu., Nov. 25 NEW ORLEANS (FOX) presented by AT&T 3:15 PM Purchase
Sun, Dec. 5 @ Indianapolis (Fox) 3:15 PM* Travel
Sun, Dec. 12 PHILADELPHIA (NBC) presented by University of Phoenix 7:20 PM* Purchase
Sun, Dec. 19 WASHINGTON (FOX) presented by Walmart Noon* Purchase
Sat, Dec. 25 @ Arizona (NFL NETWORK/THE 33CW) 6:30 PM Travel
Sun, Jan. 2 @ Philadelphia (FOX) Noon* Travel

Carolinas' Remaining Schedule
10 Sun, Nov 14th, 2010 at Tampa_Bay 01:00 PM Raymond James Stadium
11 Sun, Nov 21st, 2010 Baltimore 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
12 Sun, Nov 28th, 2010 at Cleveland 01:00 PM Cleveland Browns Stadium
13 Sun, Dec 5th, 2010 at Seattle 04:15 PM Qwest Field
14 Sun, Dec 12th, 2010 Atlanta 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
15 Sun, Dec 19th, 2010 Arizona 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
16 Thu, Dec 23rd, 2010 at Pittsburgh 08:20 PM Heinz Field
17 Sun, Jan 2nd, 2011 at Atlanta 01:00 PM Georgia Dome

[patmoran2006]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

I think Carolina will finish 2-14.. I'm not positive, but it looks like the Bills if tied with them would have the harder schedule, so Carolina would 'win" a tiebreaker.

In my opinion, IF your purpose of rooting for rest of season is based on #1 draft pick (mine isnt), I think the Bills can only win one game.

[patmoran2006]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

I'm not worried about Dallas..There's no way they dont take OT with their first pick, that OL is BRUTAL

[X-Era]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

First, we have a one game lead on the top pick. I think that could be huge. However, we may end up with the strongest strength of schedule which means any team that ends with the same record picks before us.

Second, I think we may win this game. But we may not win another.

Lastly, I still think Dallas will win 3 maybe 4 of the remainder of their games. Carolina is a real threat and may not win another game. However, TB, Clev, and Ari are winnable games for them if the can get their run game going.

If Dallas holds the top pick and Luck declares, they may not take him. Carolina almost surely will, IMO.

But I see us having a real shot at the top pick.

[X-Era]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

I'm not worried about Dallas..There's no way they dont take OT with their first pick, that OL is BRUTAL

Problem is, no OT is worthy of a top 5 pick this year, maybe not even top 10 or 15.

I see them taking a DE or DT, possibly even Peterson the CB.

[elltrain22]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.

[Nublar7]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

As the standings sit right now, the Bills have a higher SOS then both the Panthers and Cowboys.

Panthers: .551
Cowboys: .564
Bills: .574

Obviously with still half the season to go, those numbers will fluctuate. What it means though, if the Bills, Panthers and Cowboys would all have the same record at this very moment, the Bills would pick third.

Again the SOS will change, but if the Bills want that 1st overall pick, they better not end up tied with another team with the same record. In fact, the Bills currently have the highest SOS in the entire league, which means they would lose the draft pick tie-breaker with every team in the league.

[HAMMER]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

As the standings sit right now, the Bills have a higher SOS then both the Panthers and Cowboys.

Panthers: .551
Cowboys: .564
Bills: .574

Obviously with still half the season to go, those numbers will fluctuate. What it means though, if the Bills, Panthers and Cowboys would all have the same record at this very moment, the Bills would pick third.

Again the SOS will change, but if the Bills want that 1st overall pick, they better not end up tied with another team with the same record. In fact, the Bills currently have the highest SOS in the entire league, which means they would lose the draft pick tie-breaker with every team in the league.

This had been pointed out in the second post in this thread.

[Novacane]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

This is a big week. If we don't beat Detroit we have to be the favorites for the top pick. If we beat Detroit I think the Panthers are the favorites. I wish I knew if Luck was going to declare. If he's not in the draft I don't care if we get the top pick. If I knew he was going to declare I'd be rooting for 0-16.

[X-Era]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

This is a big week. If we don't beat Detroit we have to be the favorites for the top pick. If we beat Detroit I think the Panthers are the favorites. I wish I knew if Luck was going to declare. If he's not in the draft I don't care if we get the top pick. If I knew he was going to declare I'd be rooting for 0-16.

Vick and McNabb are both free agents. Luck has until Jan 15th to declare which means we would have 6 weeks to decide if we want to go after McNabb or Vick when free agency opens on Mar 1st... assuming we have free agency based on the CBA situation. Point is, Luck declaring happens before FA if that happens so we can determine our next moves based on what he decides regardless.

The top pick may or may not be necessary to get Luck if he declares.

[Commissioner]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

Vick and McNabb are both free agents. Luck has until Jan 15th to declare which means we would have 6 weeks to decide if we want to go after McNabb or Vick when free agency opens on Mar 1st... assuming we have free agency based on the CBA situation. Point is, Luck declaring happens before FA if that happens so we can determine our next moves based on what he decides regardless.

The top pick may or may not be necessary to get Luck if he declares.

If we end up with the #1 pick and Luck declares in January.... sign him in January. Don't even let him waste his time at the combine and don't even pretend like we might take someone else.

[Commissioner]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.

I don't see Carolina winning anymore games this season.. and if they end up with the #1 pick, they will take Luck even though they have Clausen.

Clausen has looked absolutely terrible, and they don't even have enough confidence in him to let him take his lumps during a lost season. If you got a chance to take a prospect like Luck ... you take him.

[Nublar7]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

This had been pointed out in the second post in this thread.

I didn't see the SOS numbers in post #2. So, your welcome.

[Albany,n.y.]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.

Luck will be the #1 pick no matter who is drafting. They'll either keep the pick & take Luck or trade him for a king's ransom. If it's the Bills they better take Luck if they don't want the fans to tear down the Ralph. If it's Carolina, they're not going to pass on Luck because they drafted Clausen & Pike. Neither is in the same league as Luck and most likely that will be quite literal in a few years. Dallas is the only one of the top 3 contenders that is anywhere near set at QB, and they are the same team that drafted Troy Aikman & Steve Walsh with the #1 picks in the regular & supplemental draft in the same year. They either draft Luck or JJ starts to work the phone lines for the best deal if they're drafting 1st.

[X-Era]

Re: Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

Luck will be the #1 pick no matter who is drafting. They'll either keep the pick & take Luck or trade him for a king's ransom. If it's the Bills they better take Luck if they don't want the fans to tear down the Ralph. If it's Carolina, they're not going to pass on Luck because they drafted Clausen & Pike. Neither is in the same league as Luck and most likely that will be quite literal in a few years. Dallas is the only one of the top 3 contenders that is anywhere near set at QB, and they are the same team that drafted Troy Aikman & Steve Walsh with the #1 picks in the regular & supplemental draft in the same year. They either draft Luck or JJ starts to work the phone lines for the best deal if they're drafting 1st.

Theres 67.5 million reasons for Dallas not to draft a QB.