Chances of Bills having the #1 draft pick?

[HAMMER]

This team could beat the Lions, possibly the Bengals, and maybe upset a division foe (Miami). Are thirteen losses going to land us in the #1 slot? Not sure it will. Dallas has a rough schedule and a second string QB, Carolina has a rough schedule and is playing musical QB's. I know we are in the drivers seat but will we stay there? I don't think so.

Dallas' Remaining Schedule
Sun, Nov. 14 @ N.Y. Giants (FOX) 3:15 PM Travel
Sun, Nov. 21 DETROIT (FOX) presented by Dr Pepper Noon* Purchase
Thu., Nov. 25 NEW ORLEANS (FOX) presented by AT&T 3:15 PM Purchase
Sun, Dec. 5 @ Indianapolis (Fox) 3:15 PM* Travel
Sun, Dec. 12 PHILADELPHIA (NBC) presented by University of Phoenix 7:20 PM* Purchase
Sun, Dec. 19 WASHINGTON (FOX) presented by Walmart Noon* Purchase
Sat, Dec. 25 @ Arizona (NFL NETWORK/THE 33CW) 6:30 PM Travel
Sun, Jan. 2 @ Philadelphia (FOX) Noon* Travel

Carolinas' Remaining Schedule
10 Sun, Nov 14th, 2010 at Tampa_Bay 01:00 PM Raymond James Stadium
11 Sun, Nov 21st, 2010 Baltimore 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
12 Sun, Nov 28th, 2010 at Cleveland 01:00 PM Cleveland Browns Stadium
13 Sun, Dec 5th, 2010 at Seattle 04:15 PM Qwest Field
14 Sun, Dec 12th, 2010 Atlanta 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
15 Sun, Dec 19th, 2010 Arizona 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
16 Thu, Dec 23rd, 2010 at Pittsburgh 08:20 PM Heinz Field
17 Sun, Jan 2nd, 2011 at Atlanta 01:00 PM Georgia Dome

[patmoran2006]

I think Carolina will finish 2-14.. I'm not positive, but it looks like the Bills if tied with them would have the harder schedule, so Carolina would 'win" a tiebreaker.

In my opinion, IF your purpose of rooting for rest of season is based on #1 draft pick (mine isnt), I think the Bills can only win one game.

[patmoran2006]

I'm not worried about Dallas..There's no way they dont take OT with their first pick, that OL is BRUTAL

[X-Era]

First, we have a one game lead on the top pick. I think that could be huge. However, we may end up with the strongest strength of schedule which means any team that ends with the same record picks before us.

Second, I think we may win this game. But we may not win another.

Lastly, I still think Dallas will win 3 maybe 4 of the remainder of their games. Carolina is a real threat and may not win another game. However, TB, Clev, and Ari are winnable games for them if the can get their run game going.

If Dallas holds the top pick and Luck declares, they may not take him. Carolina almost surely will, IMO.

But I see us having a real shot at the top pick.

[X-Era]

I'm not worried about Dallas..There's no way they dont take OT with their first pick, that OL is BRUTALProblem is, no OT is worthy of a top 5 pick this year, maybe not even top 10 or 15.

I see them taking a DE or DT, possibly even Peterson the CB.

[elltrain22]

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.

[Nublar7]

As the standings sit right now, the Bills have a higher SOS then both the Panthers and Cowboys.

Panthers: .551
Cowboys: .564
Bills: .574

Obviously with still half the season to go, those numbers will fluctuate. What it means though, if the Bills, Panthers and Cowboys would all have the same record at this very moment, the Bills would pick third.

Again the SOS will change, but if the Bills want that 1st overall pick, they better not end up tied with another team with the same record. In fact, the Bills currently have the highest SOS in the entire league, which means they would lose the draft pick tie-breaker with every team in the league.

[HAMMER]

As the standings sit right now, the Bills have a higher SOS then both the Panthers and Cowboys.

Panthers: .551
Cowboys: .564
Bills: .574

Obviously with still half the season to go, those numbers will fluctuate. What it means though, if the Bills, Panthers and Cowboys would all have the same record at this very moment, the Bills would pick third.

Again the SOS will change, but if the Bills want that 1st overall pick, they better not end up tied with another team with the same record. In fact, the Bills currently have the highest SOS in the entire league, which means they would lose the draft pick tie-breaker with every team in the league.

This had been pointed out in the second post in this thread.

[Novacane]

This is a big week. If we don't beat Detroit we have to be the favorites for the top pick. If we beat Detroit I think the Panthers are the favorites. I wish I knew if Luck was going to declare. If he's not in the draft I don't care if we get the top pick. If I knew he was going to declare I'd be rooting for 0-16.

[X-Era]

This is a big week. If we don't beat Detroit we have to be the favorites for the top pick. If we beat Detroit I think the Panthers are the favorites. I wish I knew if Luck was going to declare. If he's not in the draft I don't care if we get the top pick. If I knew he was going to declare I'd be rooting for 0-16.Vick and McNabb are both free agents. Luck has until Jan 15th to declare which means we would have 6 weeks to decide if we want to go after McNabb or Vick when free agency opens on Mar 1st... assuming we have free agency based on the CBA situation. Point is, Luck declaring happens before FA if that happens so we can determine our next moves based on what he decides regardless.

The top pick may or may not be necessary to get Luck if he declares.

[Commissioner]

Vick and McNabb are both free agents. Luck has until Jan 15th to declare which means we would have 6 weeks to decide if we want to go after McNabb or Vick when free agency opens on Mar 1st... assuming we have free agency based on the CBA situation. Point is, Luck declaring happens before FA if that happens so we can determine our next moves based on what he decides regardless.

The top pick may or may not be necessary to get Luck if he declares.

If we end up with the #1 pick and Luck declares in January.... sign him in January. Don't even let him waste his time at the combine and don't even pretend like we might take someone else.

[Commissioner]

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.

I don't see Carolina winning anymore games this season.. and if they end up with the #1 pick, they will take Luck even though they have Clausen.

Clausen has looked absolutely terrible, and they don't even have enough confidence in him to let him take his lumps during a lost season. If you got a chance to take a prospect like Luck ... you take him.

[Nublar7]

This had been pointed out in the second post in this thread.I didn't see the SOS numbers in post #2. So, your welcome.

[Albany,n.y.]

Even if, big if, Carolina and Dallas both have worse records than us, I don't see them taking a QB w/ the 1st pick. Carolina just took 2 rookies last year, and Dallas still has Tony Homo. I also don't see either of these teams finishing w/ worse records than us. Dallas will win 2-3 more games, especially since they have gotten rid of WAde Phillips. Carolina might win 1-2 more games, but we are, at best, going to win 1-2 games, with the tough schedule coming up.
Luck will be the #1 pick no matter who is drafting. They'll either keep the pick & take Luck or trade him for a king's ransom. If it's the Bills they better take Luck if they don't want the fans to tear down the Ralph. If it's Carolina, they're not going to pass on Luck because they drafted Clausen & Pike. Neither is in the same league as Luck and most likely that will be quite literal in a few years. Dallas is the only one of the top 3 contenders that is anywhere near set at QB, and they are the same team that drafted Troy Aikman & Steve Walsh with the #1 picks in the regular & supplemental draft in the same year. They either draft Luck or JJ starts to work the phone lines for the best deal if they're drafting 1st.

[X-Era]

Luck will be the #1 pick no matter who is drafting. They'll either keep the pick & take Luck or trade him for a king's ransom. If it's the Bills they better take Luck if they don't want the fans to tear down the Ralph. If it's Carolina, they're not going to pass on Luck because they drafted Clausen & Pike. Neither is in the same league as Luck and most likely that will be quite literal in a few years. Dallas is the only one of the top 3 contenders that is anywhere near set at QB, and they are the same team that drafted Troy Aikman & Steve Walsh with the #1 picks in the regular & supplemental draft in the same year. They either draft Luck or JJ starts to work the phone lines for the best deal if they're drafting 1st.Theres 67.5 million reasons for Dallas not to draft a QB.

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

I'm not worried about Dallas..There's no way they dont take OT with their first pick, that OL is BRUTAL
Don't be so sure they wouldn't take Luck.:chug:

[Mr. Pink]

Don't be so sure they wouldn't take Luck.:chug:


Then what do they do with Romo and all the money invested in him?

[Pinkerton Security]

Don't be so sure they wouldn't take Luck.:chug:

they'd trade down a spot before drafting luck...or at least they'd be ******ed not to

[OpIv37]

This team could beat the Lions, possibly the Bengals, and maybe upset a division foe (Miami). Are thirteen losses going to land us in the #1 slot? Not sure it will. Dallas has a rough schedule and a second string QB, Carolina has a rough schedule and is playing musical QB's. I know we are in the drivers seat but will we stay there? I don't think so.

Dallas' Remaining Schedule
Sun, Nov. 14 @ N.Y. Giants (FOX) 3:15 PM Travel
Sun, Nov. 21 DETROIT (FOX) presented by Dr Pepper Noon* Purchase
Thu., Nov. 25 NEW ORLEANS (FOX) presented by AT&T 3:15 PM Purchase
Sun, Dec. 5 @ Indianapolis (Fox) 3:15 PM* Travel
Sun, Dec. 12 PHILADELPHIA (NBC) presented by University of Phoenix 7:20 PM* Purchase
Sun, Dec. 19 WASHINGTON (FOX) presented by Walmart Noon* Purchase
Sat, Dec. 25 @ Arizona (NFL NETWORK/THE 33CW) 6:30 PM Travel
Sun, Jan. 2 @ Philadelphia (FOX) Noon* Travel

Carolinas' Remaining Schedule
10 Sun, Nov 14th, 2010 at Tampa_Bay 01:00 PM Raymond James Stadium
11 Sun, Nov 21st, 2010 Baltimore 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
12 Sun, Nov 28th, 2010 at Cleveland 01:00 PM Cleveland Browns Stadium
13 Sun, Dec 5th, 2010 at Seattle 04:15 PM Qwest Field
14 Sun, Dec 12th, 2010 Atlanta 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
15 Sun, Dec 19th, 2010 Arizona 01:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
16 Thu, Dec 23rd, 2010 at Pittsburgh 08:20 PM Heinz Field
17 Sun, Jan 2nd, 2011 at Atlanta 01:00 PM Georgia Dome

But would Dallas or Carolina even pick a QB if they had the #1 or 2? Carolina just got Claussen and Dallas is committed to Romo. This actually may not be a bad thing because we could end up with someone like Luck for slightly less money (not that I care about Ralph's money after the way he's bilked fans for years, but if the new CBA has a cap, it will help).

[ghz in pittsburgh]

But would Dallas or Carolina even pick a QB if they had the #1 or 2? Carolina just got Claussen and Dallas is committed to Romo. This actually may not be a bad thing because we could end up with someone like Luck for slightly less money (not that I care about Ralph's money after the way he's bilked fans for years, but if the new CBA has a cap, it will help).

Not a chance! Luck is highly touted with comparisons to Bradford and Manning (Peyton that is). People with those attributes (instead of physical attributes) are as sure bets as they come. There will be teams lining up to get to #1 pick, assuming the team at the pole position is willing to trade.

Frankly I see the Bills offering arms and legs for that if they don't get that #1 position.

[OpIv37]

Not a chance! Luck is highly touted with comparisons to Bradford and Manning (Peyton that is). People with those attributes (instead of physical attributes) are as sure bets as they come. There will be teams lining up to get to #1 pick, assuming the team at the pole position is willing to trade.

Frankly I see the Bills offering arms and legs for that if they don't get that #1 position.

lmao- I love it how, despite all the QB busts in recent years, everyone assumes Luck is a "sure bet." When it comes to QB's, there is no such thing.

[Mr. Pink]

lmao- I love it how, despite all the QB busts in recent years, everyone assumes Luck is a "sure bet." When it comes to QB's, there is no such thing.


Tim Couch was a can't miss prospect too!

And plenty of people thought Leaf was the better prospect between him and Manning.

Funny part is Lockers stock is gonna rise through the combine because NFL GMs are enamored with measurables. It almost wouldn't surprise me if there's a big debate of who the best QB of this class is come March between him and Luck.