Draft Position

[psubills62]

Just so it's clear, I'm not one of the people rooting for the Bills to lose so they get a better draft pick. I personally think that's abhorrent and that people should be rooting more for Nix and co. to draft the best player wherever we pick.

That being said, I know a lot of discussion has occurred regarding draft position, so I though I'd start this thread and keep it going for the last 4 weeks to monitor where we are in the draft and where we could be.

I actually don't mind drafting early (possibly getting a stud on one side of the ball), or somewhat later ( 7-10 range, better value for linemen, especially OL, at that range). However, this thread is mainly for people who want to draft in a high spot (whether or not you want the Bills to win or lose).

Hopefully this will be an informative thread.

Now, let's delve into the numbers, shall we?

Current draft position:
1. Carolina Panthers (1-11), SOS = 0.5833
2. Detroit Lions (2-10), SOS = 0.5677
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10), SOS = 0.5729
4. Buffalo Bills (2-10), SOS = 0.58854
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-9), SOS = 0.47396
6. Denver Broncos (3-9), SOS = 0.5156
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-8), SOS = 0.5104
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-8), SOS = 0.526

That's as far as I got. As you can see, we're actually not that far behind Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati in terms of SOS. In case people are curious how many actual games we're behind those teams in SOS, here's a quick breakdown:

Carolina's opponents' current record: 112-80
Detroit's opponents' current record:109-83
Cincinnati's opponents' current record:110-82
Buffalo's opponents' current record:113-79

As you can see, we're all within a few games, and we're only one game behind Carolina. We're still right in the mix for the #2, and possibly even the #1 overall pick.

I started trying to calculate maximum and minimum possible SOS's for each team, but with the interplay between teams' schedules, it got too complicated. However, I can list who we want to root for each week.

Obviously, if you want to draft as high as possible, you want to root for each team on this list. There are actually 4 games remaining in the season that pit two teams from this list against each other. They are:

Arizona @ Carolina
Dallas @ Arizona
Arizona @ San Francisco
Denver @ Arizona

As you can see, Arizona plays a huge role in the draft position here at the top, and there are a guaranteed 4 wins to be added to those teams. If Buffalo does not win any more games, best case scenario in my mind is Carolina beating Arizona, Arizona then beating Dallas and/or San Fran, then Denver beating the Cardinals.

In terms of Carolina winning one more game...there's a distinct, though somewhat slim, possibility. Obviously Arizona is going to hell in a handbasket, so there's a chance Carolina wins that game. Also, the Panthers play Pittsburgh and Atlanta as their final two games. If both of those teams have created enough separation in their division races, there's again a chance that they'll rest their starters. Not sure that even then the Panthers could win, though.

So anyway, here is a list of teams we want to root against in order to help reduce our SOS:

1. Always root against division opponents - this takes priority over everyone else on here
2. Against AFC North and NFC North teams, as well as KC, Jax

Now note that some of these may seem to conflict with wanting other teams' SOS to increase. For example, if the AFC North teams lose, that actually helps Cincinnati's SOS more than it helps ours. That being said, we're looking to simply drop our SOS, period, mainly because we're looking at more than just one team, we're looking at the Lions and possibly Panthers too. So the best thing to do for now is hope that our SOS drops, even if it helps another team's SOS more. Thus, I'd personally say that rooting for our SOS to decrease takes priority.

Here's the teams we want to root for in order to hurt everyone else's SOS:
Carolina: NFC South, NFC West, NYG
Detroit: NFC North, NFC East, StL, TB
Cincinnati: AFC North, NFC South, SD, Ind

I'd mention Arizona, Denver, San Fran and Dallas' non-common opponents as well, but their SOS's are low enough at this point that I'm not sure how feasible it is for our SOS to decrease lower than theirs.

Anyway, hope that was an insightful breakdown, and I'm sorry for the extremely long post. I'll try to keep on top of this as the season progresses. I'll also go through the games for each week and pick out what I believe to be the best teams to root for or against.

Tonight, root for Indianapolis (hurts Cincinnati).

[OpIv37]

I'm not worried about it. I have complete confidence in the FO's ability to botch the draft pick from any draft position.

[OpIv37]

great breakdown, though.

[RockStar36]

Good job.

Here is the thing that concerns me when I looked at it. Bills still play NE and NYJ. That is going to increase their SOS considerably. I've accepted that the 4th is probably the best. Carolina will no doubt have the #1 so to me draft 2nd or 4th makes no difference.

[mayotm]

great breakdown, though.Did you decide not to hijack the thread with one of your "the Bills suck" rants?

[hydro]

:bf1: Great post! Looks like you put a lot of work into it and it wasn't hard to follow either.

[DraftBoy]

Well done!

Clearly that advanced degree is paying off!

[trapezeus]

i don't know if there is anything other to say to the original post. just print it out as a reminder really.

I'm reallly just responding to bump this so other read it.

[Mindbender]

Nice post!

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

Andrew Luck needs to be a Buffalo Bill.

[OpIv37]

Andrew Luck needs to be a Buffalo Bill.

and like I said in another thread- I need world peace and a winning lotto ticket. But that's not gonna happen either.

[psubills62]

Good job.

Here is the thing that concerns me when I looked at it. Bills still play NE and NYJ. That is going to increase their SOS considerably. I've accepted that the 4th is probably the best. Carolina will no doubt have the #1 so to me draft 2nd or 4th makes no difference.

We also play Miami. It is concerning that we play all of our division rivals (which will hurt our SOS considerably if we lose all 3). However, remember that most every other team on that list is also playing divisional opponents at the end of the year:

Carolina: plays Atlanta twice
Detroit: plays GB and Minnesota
Cincinnati: plays Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Baltimore

So you can see that if all of us lose to our divisional opponents, it does hurt us more than Carolina and Detroit, but the same as Cincinnati. I'm hoping (wish I could have run the numbers on possible SOS's) that Carolina and Detroit's previous opponents will win enough to alter their SOS's.

I was actually surprised at how close the SOS numbers were, and I think we're close enough that each week can make a big difference.

[psubills62]

Well done!

Clearly that advanced degree is paying off!

I sure hope that calculating SOS doesn't require an advanced degree. Though considering the state of math nowadays...wouldn't be terribly surprised.

[psubills62]

I'm not worried about it. I have complete confidence in the FO's ability to botch the draft pick from any draft position.

In that case...you want us to win, win, win, and you want to do the opposite of what I suggest. Because I'm sure you'd rather pay a busted pick a $20 million contract instead of a $50 million one.

[Dr. Lecter]

I sure hope that calculating SOS doesn't require an advanced degree. Though considering the state of math nowadays...wouldn't be terribly surprised.


He lives in Georgia.

[OpIv37]

We also play Miami. It is concerning that we play all of our division rivals (which will hurt our SOS considerably if we lose all 3). However, remember that most every other team on that list is also playing divisional opponents at the end of the year:

Carolina: plays Atlanta twice
Detroit: plays GB and Minnesota
Cincinnati: plays Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Baltimore

So you can see that if all of us lose to our divisional opponents, it does hurt us more than Carolina and Detroit, but the same as Cincinnati. I'm hoping (wish I could have run the numbers on possible SOS's) that Carolina and Detroit's previous opponents will win enough to alter their SOS's.

I was actually surprised at how close the SOS numbers were, and I think we're close enough that each week can make a big difference.

but if we win, then SOS doesn't matter because we have more wins. If anyone wants us to lose just to improve draft position, it seems like it's a wasted effort. We'd need Carolina, Cincy and Detroit to go on a run.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Andrew Luck needs to be a Buffalo Bill.

The Bills don't NEED Luck, there is no single player that your team should rely upon for success. And just so you get my point...:jig:

[OpIv37]

He lives in Georgia.

I'm pretty sure that in Georgia, they give you a math degree if you can count to 21 without removing your pants.

[psubills62]

Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Glad some of your found it relatively easy to follow. Here's the summaries for this week's slate of games (I have omitted the Bills game to avoid the "root for the Bills to lose" arguments - the team in bold is who we should root FOR):

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Games this week:
1. [B]Indy vs. Ten
Breakdown: Easy enough, root for Indy. Nobody on the list of bad teams (Hereby referred to as LoBT) plays <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:state> without playing Indy.

2. <st1:city w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:place></st1:city>
Breakdown: Again, easy. Root for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:city> to pick up another win. If Steelers happen to win, it's not huge because that then increases <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:city>'s SOS.

3. <st1:city w:st="on">Oakland</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:city>
Breakdown: An Oakland win would hurt <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state>, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denver</st1:place></st1:city>, and San Fran. But again, I don't see us catching any of those teams in SOS (maybe possible, but unlikely). <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:place></st1:city> winning would hurt us and Dallas. Thus, I believe it's best to root for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Oakland</st1:place></st1:city> to win so our SOS is helped.

4. <st1:placename w:st="on">Tampa</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Bay</st1:placetype> vs. <st1:state w:st="on">Washington</st1:state>
Breakdown: Definitely root for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Tampa</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">Bay</st1:placetype></st1:place> to win this. That would hurt <st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city> and <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:city>. We could really use a Buccaneer win here. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Detroit</st1:place></st1:city> actually played both of these teams once, so no matter who wins it adds 1 win and 1 loss to their SOS.

5. New York Giants vs. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:place></st1:state>
Breakdown: This one is a little difficult. The Giants winning would hurt <st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city> and help us and <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Detroit</st1:place></st1:city> (double). Going back to what I said earlier about our SOS taking priority, I'm going to say that rooting for the Giants is best. Especially if <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Carolina</st1:place></st1:city> ends up winning a game to tie us in record.

6. <st1:city w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city>
Breakdown: Root for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Carolina</st1:place></st1:city>.

7. <st1:city w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>
Breakdown: Root for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Detroit</st1:place></st1:city>.

8. <st1:city w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:place></st1:city>
Breakdown: At this point, again, I'm not sure the teams currently behind us will have high enough SOS's that we will draft ahead of them with the same record. Thus, I'm inclined to root for <st1:city w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:city> here (hurts <st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city> and <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Dallas</st1:place></st1:city>).

9. <st1:city w:st="on">Seattle</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:place></st1:city>
Breakdown: Root for San Fran. No matter who wins, it doesn't help or hurt any of the teams on the LoBT, so might as well root for a team that can escape the LoBT.

10. New England vs. <st1:city w:st="on">Chicago</st1:city>
Breakdown: This game affects all of the top four (<st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city>, <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>, <st1:city w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:city>, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:place></st1:city>). If <st1:city w:st="on">Chicago</st1:city> wins, it helps our SOS, hurts <st1:city w:st="on">Detroit</st1:city>'s SOS, hurts <st1:city w:st="on">Carolina</st1:city>'s, helps <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:city>. A <st1:place w:st="on">New England</st1:place> win would be the opposite. We need to root for <st1:city w:st="on">Chicago</st1:city>, and we could really use a <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Chicago</st1:place></st1:city> win (though I'm not sure how likely it is).

11. <st1:city w:st="on">Denver</st1:city> vs. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arizona</st1:place></st1:state>
Breakdown: Flip a coin. Either one winning works for us. Probably want to root for <st1:state w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arizona</st1:place></st1:state> (I know, contrary to my statement in the OP). <st1:state w:st="on">Arizona</st1:state> winning would hurt <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Carolina</st1:place></st1:city>.

12. <st1:city w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on">San Diego</st1:city>
Breakdown: Root for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San Diego</st1:place></st1:city>. A KC loss would help our SOS, and a <st1:city w:st="on">San Diego</st1:city><st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"> win would hurt Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:city>'s.

13. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:city> vs. NYJ
Breakdown: Doesn't really matter for our SOS. NYJ winning would hurt <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denver</st1:place></st1:city>'s SOS, but that's about it.

14. <st1:city w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Dallas</st1:place></st1:city>
Breakdown: <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Dallas</st1:place></st1:city> winning obviously hurts their draft position. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:place></st1:city> winning hurts San Fran’s SOS. I don’t think we should be terribly concerned either way, especially since I see San Fran and Dallas winning 1 or 2 more games each.
<o:p> </o:p>
15. <st1:city w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:city> vs. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Breakdown: This is a difficult one. A Baltimore win hurts us, hurts Cincinnati doubly, and hurts Carolina. Again, hard to say...but I'd go with rooting for Houston. Houston winning would help all of us except Detroit. Another thing to consider is that if Baltimore loses, Pittsburgh may clinch the division early and play their backups against Carolina in Week 16.</st1:place></st1:city>

<st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"></st1:place></st1:city>
<st1:city w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Finally, I understand if you can't bring yourself to root for a particular team if I suggest it (not like cheering for a team helps them win at all anyway). But if you, for example, hate the Jets, then you can simply take solace in the idea that their winning might help our draft position.
</st1:place></st1:city>

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

The Bills don't NEED Luck, there is no single player that your team should rely upon for success. And just so you get my point...:jig:
The Bills do need Luck. Fact.:yawn:

[psubills62]

but if we win, then SOS doesn't matter because we have more wins. If anyone wants us to lose just to improve draft position, it seems like it's a wasted effort. We'd need Carolina, Cincy and Detroit to go on a run.

The SOS still matters (maybe) if we win, due to draft position compared to Denver, etc. Like I said, I'm not a fan of wanting to lose for draft position. I'm simply laying out the case based on certain scenarios, specifically if we lose our last 4 games.

[Dr. Lecter]

I'm pretty sure that in Georgia, they give you a math degree if you can count to 21 without removing your pants.
DB did that and still could only count to 20.5.

[BidsJr]

IF Carolina can join the 2 win teams and allow Cinci or Detroit the #1 pick it would be a huge deal. That would allow the chance for Buffalo or Carolina to trade up into the pick with the best offer to grab Luck.

So if we really wanted him, all we would have to do is outbid Carolina for the rights to the #1 pick.

[psubills62]

IF Carolina can join the 2 win teams and allow Cinci or Detroit the #1 pick it would be a huge deal. That would allow the chance for Buffalo or Carolina to trade up into the pick with the best offer to grab Luck.

So if we really wanted him, all we would have to do is outbid Carolina for the rights to the #1 pick.

I'm not so sure Cincy would pass on Luck...Palmer hasn't looked good since his major injury in the playoffs. Detroit probably would, though, so Detroit getting the top pick would not be bad.

[BidsJr]

I'm not so sure Cincy would pass on Luck...Palmer hasn't looked good since his major injury in the playoffs. Detroit probably would, though, so Detroit getting the top pick would not be bad.


Maybe so, but as it stands Detroit would get the pick if the draft was today.

[DraftBoy]

I'm pretty sure that in Georgia, they give you a math degree if you can count to 21 without removing your pants.

That's why I majored in Poly Sci, three toe taps and you're good to go! :up:

[DraftBoy]

DB did that and still could only count to 20.5.

Which to this day I still contend is the same.

[BuffaloBlitz83]

Week 15 Cards vs Panthers... could be interesting.

If Cleveland beats us Sunday, we'll lose out

[BuffaloBlitz83]

Week 15 Bengals vs Browns will be interesting too

[Dr. Taylor Zaius]

IF Carolina can join the 2 win teams and allow Cinci or Detroit the #1 pick it would be a huge deal. That would allow the chance for Buffalo or Carolina to trade up into the pick with the best offer to grab Luck.

So if we really wanted him, all we would have to do is outbid Carolina for the rights to the #1 pick.
Yes! Yes!:bow: :drool2:

[better days]

Just so it's clear, I'm not one of the people rooting for the Bills to lose so they get a better draft pick. I personally think that's abhorrent and that people should be rooting more for Nix and co. to draft the best player wherever we pick.

That being said, I know a lot of discussion has occurred regarding draft position, so I though I'd start this thread and keep it going for the last 4 weeks to monitor where we are in the draft and where we could be.

I actually don't mind drafting early (possibly getting a stud on one side of the ball), or somewhat later ( 7-10 range, better value for linemen, especially OL, at that range). However, this thread is mainly for people who want to draft in a high spot (whether or not you want the Bills to win or lose).

Hopefully this will be an informative thread.

Now, let's delve into the numbers, shall we?

Current draft position:
1. Carolina Panthers (1-11), SOS = 0.5833
2. Detroit Lions (2-10), SOS = 0.5677
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10), SOS = 0.5729
4. Buffalo Bills (2-10), SOS = 0.58854
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-9), SOS = 0.47396
6. Denver Broncos (3-9), SOS = 0.5156
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-8), SOS = 0.5104
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-8), SOS = 0.526

That's as far as I got. As you can see, we're actually not that far behind Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati in terms of SOS. In case people are curious how many actual games we're behind those teams in SOS, here's a quick breakdown:

Carolina's opponents' current record: 112-80
Detroit's opponents' current record:109-83
Cincinnati's opponents' current record:110-82
Buffalo's opponents' current record:113-79

As you can see, we're all within a few games, and we're only one game behind Carolina. We're still right in the mix for the #2, and possibly even the #1 overall pick.

I started trying to calculate maximum and minimum possible SOS's for each team, but with the interplay between teams' schedules, it got too complicated. However, I can list who we want to root for each week.

Obviously, if you want to draft as high as possible, you want to root for each team on this list. There are actually 4 games remaining in the season that pit two teams from this list against each other. They are:

Arizona @ Carolina
Dallas @ Arizona
Arizona @ San Francisco
Denver @ Arizona

As you can see, Arizona plays a huge role in the draft position here at the top, and there are a guaranteed 4 wins to be added to those teams. If Buffalo does not win any more games, best case scenario in my mind is Carolina beating Arizona, Arizona then beating Dallas and/or San Fran, then Denver beating the Cardinals.

In terms of Carolina winning one more game...there's a distinct, though somewhat slim, possibility. Obviously Arizona is going to hell in a handbasket, so there's a chance Carolina wins that game. Also, the Panthers play Pittsburgh and Atlanta as their final two games. If both of those teams have created enough separation in their division races, there's again a chance that they'll rest their starters. Not sure that even then the Panthers could win, though.

So anyway, here is a list of teams we want to root against in order to help reduce our SOS:

1. Always root against division opponents - this takes priority over everyone else on here
2. Against AFC North and NFC North teams, as well as KC, Jax

Now note that some of these may seem to conflict with wanting other teams' SOS to increase. For example, if the AFC North teams lose, that actually helps Cincinnati's SOS more than it helps ours. That being said, we're looking to simply drop our SOS, period, mainly because we're looking at more than just one team, we're looking at the Lions and possibly Panthers too. So the best thing to do for now is hope that our SOS drops, even if it helps another team's SOS more. Thus, I'd personally say that rooting for our SOS to decrease takes priority.

Here's the teams we want to root for in order to hurt everyone else's SOS:
Carolina: NFC South, NFC West, NYG
Detroit: NFC North, NFC East, StL, TB
Cincinnati: AFC North, NFC South, SD, Ind

I'd mention Arizona, Denver, San Fran and Dallas' non-common opponents as well, but their SOS's are low enough at this point that I'm not sure how feasible it is for our SOS to decrease lower than theirs.

Anyway, hope that was an insightful breakdown, and I'm sorry for the extremely long post. I'll try to keep on top of this as the season progresses. I'll also go through the games for each week and pick out what I believe to be the best teams to root for or against.

Tonight, root for Indianapolis (hurts Cincinnati).

You don't mind drafting early? You should hope the Bills get the earliest pick possible. The draft is 7 rounds, not 1. If a team picks early in round 1 they pick early in every round.

[psubills62]

You don't mind drafting early? You should hope the Bills get the earliest pick possible. The draft is 7 rounds, not 1. If a team picks early in round 1 they pick early in every round.

I realize that. In fact, I believe that's what I was trying to convey previously. I don't think picking early in rounds 2-7 matters as much as round 1. Contracts are also something to consider. The earlier we pick, the more money we have to spend on said pick. If we could get a guy at pick 10 who contributes just as much as a guy at pick 4, then why not save 30+ million we could use elsewhere, like free agency?

[Beebe's Kid]

Wait..so all we have to do is root for the worst teams to win.... ****, we can handle that!! We've been doing it for years!!

[psubills62]

Wait..so all we have to do is root for the worst teams to win.... ****, we can handle that!! We've been doing it for years!!

I was going for a little more in-depth analysis...but yes, that's pretty much the gist of it.

[Nighthawk]

Good work and I'd love for the Bills to be able to have a shot at Luck. That would be a fantastic Christmas gift!

[better days]

I realize that. In fact, I believe that's what I was trying to convey previously. I don't think picking early in rounds 2-7 matters as much as round 1. Contracts are also something to consider. The earlier we pick, the more money we have to spend on said pick. If we could get a guy at pick 10 who contributes just as much as a guy at pick 4, then why not save 30+ million we could use elsewhere, like free agency?

Well, Nix has said the Bills will build through the draft, not free agency. Don't expect to see any money spent on high priced free agents. With the new CBA rookies will be very cheap in comparison to vets.

By picking early in rnds 2-7 the Bills will have a greater choice of players to pick from than a team picking later.

[dannyek71]

<Insert bust name here> should still be available at our spot.

[psubills62]

Well, Nix has said the Bills will build through the draft, not free agency. Don't expect to see any money spent on high priced free agents. With the new CBA rookies will be very cheap in comparison to vets.

By picking early in rnds 2-7 the Bills will have a greater choice of players to pick from than a team picking later.

Doubt the CBA will take effect before this coming draft. The Bills still went out and signed some guys in FA last year, right? If they save $30 million, that's 3 contributing veterans that could be brought in at 10 million per. They don't have to spend it all.

Yes, obviously, but there's also obviously no way the Bills will be picking THAT much later than what they are. If they've got a draft plan in mind, I doubt picking 4th vs. 7th in the 4th round is really going to kill them.

Besides...when the Bills tie for a particular record, they actually move up as the draft goes on. If the draft was to be held today, the Bills would be picking 4th in the first round, 3rd in the second round, and 2nd in the 3rd round because they've tied with their record, but have a higher SOS.

[trapezeus]

i heard if you can't count to 21, but you do count all your teeth with a minimum of having 5 teeth, you still get the degree. Ahhh, Georgia.

[ServoBillieves]

I'll be the moron here for a minute... but how many draft picks do we have this year? And what rounds are the extras? I think an extra (and early) 4th for Marshawn, but any others?

[better days]

Doubt the CBA will take effect before this coming draft. The Bills still went out and signed some guys in FA last year, right? If they save $30 million, that's 3 contributing veterans that could be brought in at 10 million per. They don't have to spend it all.

Yes, obviously, but there's also obviously no way the Bills will be picking THAT much later than what they are. If they've got a draft plan in mind, I doubt picking 4th vs. 7th in the 4th round is really going to kill them.

Besides...when the Bills tie for a particular record, they actually move up as the draft goes on. If the draft was to be held today, the Bills would be picking 4th in the first round, 3rd in the second round, and 2nd in the 3rd round because they've tied with their record, but have a higher SOS.

You may be right, there may not be a new CBA before the draft. In that event, I would not be surprised to see teams hold off on signing draft choices until there is a CBA.

I expect some mid to low level FA signings, but I don't think that money will be an issue with that anyway.

[psubills62]

I'll be the moron here for a minute... but how many draft picks do we have this year? And what rounds are the extras? I think an extra (and early) 4th for Marshawn, but any others?

As far as I can remember, the 4th rounder is the only extra one we have.

[psubills62]

You may be right, there may not be a new CBA before the draft. In that event, I would not be surprised to see teams hold off on signing draft choices until there is a CBA.

I expect some mid to low level FA signings, but I don't think that money will be an issue with that anyway.

Yeah, you're right - I've read several places that the draft picks probably won't be signed if there is no CBA. We'll have to see, that will be a very interesting negotiation.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The Bills do need Luck. Fact.:yawn:

What grade are you in?

[Nighthawk]

What grade are you in?

It doesn't matter what grade he is in...he's right, the Bills would be much better with Luck.

[better days]

It doesn't matter what grade he is in...he's right, the Bills would be much better with Luck.

What he is wrong about is the ability the Bills will have to draft Luck.

[X-Era]

What he is wrong about is the ability the Bills will have to draft Luck.We can't move up?

[better days]

We can't move up?

Maybe, maybe not. It depends if that team wants him or not. I would say the chances of trading up to draft Luck are about as good as drawing an inside straight.

[X-Era]

Maybe, maybe not. It depends if that team wants him or not. I would say the chances of trading up to draft Luck are about as good as drawing an inside straight.Looks to me like that's about a 21.6% chance... that seems about right. I simply am saying it can't be ruled out. Nix has personally scouted him, if the team gets a hard-on for him, maybe they make a move. Especially is they pick 2nd and Carolina picks 1. I know Clausen has looked bad, but they drafted two (Clausen and Pike), and may think they have bigger needs or want to give Clausen a shot for another year. Moving to two to take a CB like Peterson or a WR like Green may make sense for them. They could use either.

It probably would cost us a 1st and 3rd to move up that one spot. And so adding Luck may mean you lose a Carrington level player. But we couldn't have added another FA that would have given us Carrington's production in year one? I mean we can;t supplement the 2011 roster which lost a 3rd rounder by adding just one additional FA?

I mean if we assume Luck becomes what many think he will and is a franchise, top 10 in the league QB, would it be better than a potential top 10 in the league DE? DT? I'd say so. And the cost would be a 3rd round pick (player).

[better days]

Looks to me like that's about a 21.6% chance... that seems about right. I simply am saying it can't be ruled out. Nix has personally scouted him, if the team gets a hard-on for him, maybe they make a move. Especially is they pick 2nd and Carolina picks 1. I know Clausen has looked bad, but they drafted two (Clausen and Pike), and may think they have bigger needs or want to give Clausen a shot for another year.

I would not rule it out entirely, just saying it's not likely. If the Panthers have the 1st pick, their (soon to be) new front office has nothing invested in either Clausen or Pike & Clausen has looked terrible thus far.

If Jimmy wants to be the QB in Carolina in the future, he better start winning some games so Carolina does not have the 1st pick.

I agree, I would trade up for him if possible, but as I said that team may want Luck themselves.

[X-Era]

I would not rule it out entirely, just saying it's not likely. If the Panthers have the 1st pick, their (soon to be) new front office has nothing invested in either Clausen or Pike & Clausen has looked terrible thus far.

If Jimmy wants to be the QB in Carolina in the future, he better start winning some games so Carolina does not have the 1st pick.I agree it seems unlikely.

[Joe Fo Sho]

It doesn't matter what grade he is in...he's right, the Bills would be much better with Luck.

He is wrong to say that the Bills need him, followed by 'fact.'

[better days]

He is wrong to say that the Bills need him, followed by 'fact.'

Well the Bills do need a long term franchise QB. I don't know if Luck is that guy though.

[Nighthawk]

Well the Bills do need a long term franchise QB. I don't know if Luck is that guy though.

Who the hell else is there in the draft better than Luck?

[TigerJ]

I believe the first tiebreaker is head to head. The Bills, having beaten both Detroit and Cincinnati, lose that tie breaker (the winner of the game loses draft position) so strentght of schedule is irrelevant when it comes to Cincinnati and Detroit. If they have a better record, the Bills draft earlier. If they have the same record, Buffalo drafts after they do. Strength of schedule only matters to teams that have not played each other.

[Mr. Pink]

I believe the first tiebreaker is head to head. The Bills, having beaten both Detroit and Cincinnati, lose that tie breaker (the winner of the game loses draft position) so strentght of schedule is irrelevant when it comes to Cincinnati and Detroit. If they have a better record, the Bills draft earlier. If they have the same record, Buffalo drafts after they do. Strength of schedule only matters to teams that have not played each other.


Strength of Schedule is the only tiebreaker when it comes to the draft.

And if you and another team are tied with SoS then they flip a coin.

[ServoBillieves]

My thoughts with the drafting of Luck...

As of right now, we obviously have the 4th pick. Detroit has Stafford, Cincinnati has Palmer, and Carolina just drafted Clausen, who is currently starting. They also drafted Pike, and has some form of security with Moore.

IF... and a raging IF, is if Carolina is comfortable and goes to one of their other needs (WR in Green), could Luck fall to us?

I'd think of it as...

Carolina: Green
Detroit: Needs a CB desperately, so they go Patrick Patterson
Cinci: Goes Dareus or Bowers to revamp their D
Buffalo: Luck... I mean, I know most people know they can't pass up on this guy, but it's a possibility.

If not, and we can't land Dareus, I would love to move back and pick up Adrian Clayborn. He's been a bit unproductive this year, but he was a FREAK last season, and could be the answer to the missing 94 on this team. I actually would like to know what DB has to say about him as a first rounder.

[kingJofNYC]

Yeah, but even if they do decide to pass on him, with 3 teams in front of us and plenty of teams in need of a franchise QB, someone's going to try and jump us.

[TigerJ]

Strength of Schedule is the only tiebreaker when it comes to the draft.

And if you and another team are tied with SoS then they flip a coin.

OK. At this point in the season, I don't think SoS is going to change a whole lot. I usually rely on the Great Blue North Draft Report for draft order. They calculate Strength of Schedule on the basis of all opponents, including those opponents they have not yet faced in the season. I know some web sites only base it on past games during the season. By the calculations of www.gbnreport.com (http://www.gbnreport.com), Buffalo is playing the hardest schedle in the league this season.

[Oaf]

Any conspirators believe that Carolina tanking it on purpose, with "controlling their own destiny" and all? :ontome:

[ServoBillieves]

OK. At this point in the season, I don't think SoS is going to change a whole lot. I usually rely on the Great Blue North Draft Report for draft order. They calculate Strength of Schedule on the basis of all opponents, including those opponents they have not yet faced in the season. I know some web sites only base it on past games during the season. By the calculations of www.gbnreport.com (http://www.gbnreport.com), Buffalo is playing the hardest schedle in the league this season.

A lot of people have said since day 1 that we have the hardest strength of schedule, so I'll back you 100% on this one.

As for us actually having it, I think this team has proved they can play with the big dogs. Other than the Vikings, apparently. So we need a healthy O-Line, and a strong pass rush.

[X-Era]

My thoughts with the drafting of Luck...

As of right now, we obviously have the 4th pick. Detroit has Stafford, Cincinnati has Palmer, and Carolina just drafted Clausen, who is currently starting. They also drafted Pike, and has some form of security with Moore.

IF... and a raging IF, is if Carolina is comfortable and goes to one of their other needs (WR in Green), could Luck fall to us?

I'd think of it as...

Carolina: Green
Detroit: Needs a CB desperately, so they go Patrick Patterson
Cinci: Goes Dareus or Bowers to revamp their D
Buffalo: Luck... I mean, I know most people know they can't pass up on this guy, but it's a possibility.

If not, and we can't land Dareus, I would love to move back and pick up Adrian Clayborn. He's been a bit unproductive this year, but he was a FREAK last season, and could be the answer to the missing 94 on this team. I actually would like to know what DB has to say about him as a first rounder.I could happen but the only team that is out for Luck is Detroit. Palmer is possibly gone after this year.

Carolina could pass on him but I really don't even think that's likely. What may be more likely is for them to trade out of the top spot and down just a few spots. But that would be based on them seeing a bigger need and finding value in the extra pick or picks.

[SABURZFAN]

Just so it's clear, I'm not one of the people rooting for the Bills to lose so they get a better draft pick. I personally think that's abhorrent and that people should be rooting more for Nix and co. to draft the best player wherever we pick.

That being said, I know a lot of discussion has occurred regarding draft position, so I though I'd start this thread and keep it going for the last 4 weeks to monitor where we are in the draft and where we could be.

I actually don't mind drafting early (possibly getting a stud on one side of the ball), or somewhat later ( 7-10 range, better value for linemen, especially OL, at that range). However, this thread is mainly for people who want to draft in a high spot (whether or not you want the Bills to win or lose).

Hopefully this will be an informative thread.

Now, let's delve into the numbers, shall we?

Current draft position:
1. Carolina Panthers (1-11), SOS = 0.5833
2. Detroit Lions (2-10), SOS = 0.5677
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10), SOS = 0.5729
4. Buffalo Bills (2-10), SOS = 0.58854
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-9), SOS = 0.47396
6. Denver Broncos (3-9), SOS = 0.5156
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-8), SOS = 0.5104
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-8), SOS = 0.526

That's as far as I got. As you can see, we're actually not that far behind Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati in terms of SOS. In case people are curious how many actual games we're behind those teams in SOS, here's a quick breakdown:

Carolina's opponents' current record: 112-80
Detroit's opponents' current record:109-83
Cincinnati's opponents' current record:110-82
Buffalo's opponents' current record:113-79

As you can see, we're all within a few games, and we're only one game behind Carolina. We're still right in the mix for the #2, and possibly even the #1 overall pick.

I started trying to calculate maximum and minimum possible SOS's for each team, but with the interplay between teams' schedules, it got too complicated. However, I can list who we want to root for each week.

Obviously, if you want to draft as high as possible, you want to root for each team on this list. There are actually 4 games remaining in the season that pit two teams from this list against each other. They are:

Arizona @ Carolina
Dallas @ Arizona
Arizona @ San Francisco
Denver @ Arizona

As you can see, Arizona plays a huge role in the draft position here at the top, and there are a guaranteed 4 wins to be added to those teams. If Buffalo does not win any more games, best case scenario in my mind is Carolina beating Arizona, Arizona then beating Dallas and/or San Fran, then Denver beating the Cardinals.

In terms of Carolina winning one more game...there's a distinct, though somewhat slim, possibility. Obviously Arizona is going to hell in a handbasket, so there's a chance Carolina wins that game. Also, the Panthers play Pittsburgh and Atlanta as their final two games. If both of those teams have created enough separation in their division races, there's again a chance that they'll rest their starters. Not sure that even then the Panthers could win, though.

So anyway, here is a list of teams we want to root against in order to help reduce our SOS:

1. Always root against division opponents - this takes priority over everyone else on here
2. Against AFC North and NFC North teams, as well as KC, Jax

Now note that some of these may seem to conflict with wanting other teams' SOS to increase. For example, if the AFC North teams lose, that actually helps Cincinnati's SOS more than it helps ours. That being said, we're looking to simply drop our SOS, period, mainly because we're looking at more than just one team, we're looking at the Lions and possibly Panthers too. So the best thing to do for now is hope that our SOS drops, even if it helps another team's SOS more. Thus, I'd personally say that rooting for our SOS to decrease takes priority.

Here's the teams we want to root for in order to hurt everyone else's SOS:
Carolina: NFC South, NFC West, NYG
Detroit: NFC North, NFC East, StL, TB
Cincinnati: AFC North, NFC South, SD, Ind

I'd mention Arizona, Denver, San Fran and Dallas' non-common opponents as well, but their SOS's are low enough at this point that I'm not sure how feasible it is for our SOS to decrease lower than theirs.

Anyway, hope that was an insightful breakdown, and I'm sorry for the extremely long post. I'll try to keep on top of this as the season progresses. I'll also go through the games for each week and pick out what I believe to be the best teams to root for or against.

Tonight, root for Indianapolis (hurts Cincinnati).


#4 puts the Bills in postion for DL Nick Fairley

[better days]

I could happen but the only team that is out for Luck is Detroit. Palmer is possibly gone after this year.

Carolina could pass on him but I really don't even think that's likely. What may be more likely is for them to trade out of the top spot and down just a few spots. But that would be based on them seeing a bigger need and finding value in the extra pick or picks.

I am very familiar with the Panthers because they play in the Bucs division & I am a Bucs fan. I would say QB is the #1 need on that team by far.

[X-Era]

I am very familiar with the Panthers because they play in the Bucs division & I am a Bucs fan. I would say QB is the #1 need on that team by far.That would be 3 draft picks on QB's in 2 years. Not saying it can't happen but that might seem unlikely. It basically means your convinced after only a small number of games that Clausen can never be the guy.

[better days]

That would be 3 draft picks on QB's in 2 years. Not saying it can't happen but that might seem unlikely. It basically means your convinced after only a small number of games that Clausen can never be the guy.

Well, the new HC & front office will have no ties to past mistakes & if Clausen suddenly starts to play well, the Panthers would be in a position where they could trade either him or Luck.

[BillsFever21]

If the NFL GM's think Luck will be as great as many posters on here do then he will be the 1st pick in the draft regardless on who ends up with the 1st pick. Somebody would move up to get him if the team picking #1 didn't want/need him.

Even if it was a team like Detroit that just drafted a high QB and won't draft another one they would most definitely trade that pick if the league thinks as highly of Luck as some here do. Somebody would offer them a king's ransom to move up and draft him.

[YardRat]

Strength of Schedule is the only tiebreaker when it comes to the draft.

And if you and another team are tied with SoS then they flip a coin.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING


Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage. If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

[BillsFever21]

I don't think drafting Clausen last year would affect Carolina's decision if Luck is supposed to be the next Joe Montana like everyone around here thinks.

Clausen was only a 2nd round draft pick which means there isn't a ton of money invested in him. It's not like he was a Top draft pick or even a 1st round selection at that. Not to mention he looked lost this year. Plus there will be a new regime coming in which doesn't have any ties to him.

Plus it can't hurt your team to have two good QB's. If Clausen developed or if somebody else liked him they would be able to recoup something from him and trade him for another draft pick. Or at the very worse you have a backup QB.

Look at San Diego. They had Drew Brees and still drafted Phillip Rivers. Even though Brees didn't explode onto the scene until after Rivers was drafted they still used a high pick on him when they had a young QB.

[YardRat]

Look at San Diego. They had Drew Brees and still drafted Phillip Rivers. Even though Brees didn't explode onto the scene until after Rivers was drafted they still used a high pick on him when they had a young QB.

Maybe if they had taken Fitzgerald, Hall, Williams or Taylor instead of a QB they would have hoisted a trophy by now. Fitz opposite Jackson, or Hall opposite Cromartie with Brees at QB and they beat the Patriots in the conference championship? (Technically they drafted Manning, also.)

[X-Era]

I don't think drafting Clausen last year would affect Carolina's decision if Luck is supposed to be the next Joe Montana like everyone around here thinks.

Clausen was only a 2nd round draft pick which means there isn't a ton of money invested in him. It's not like he was a Top draft pick or even a 1st round selection at that. Not to mention he looked lost this year. Plus there will be a new regime coming in which doesn't have any ties to him.

Plus it can't hurt your team to have two good QB's. If Clausen developed or if somebody else liked him they would be able to recoup something from him and trade him for another draft pick. Or at the very worse you have a backup QB.

Look at San Diego. They had Drew Brees and still drafted Phillip Rivers. Even though Brees didn't explode onto the scene until after Rivers was drafted they still used a high pick on him when they had a young QB.They had Brees for a few years before that move and thought they knew what they had in him. They then drafted Rivers, I don't think Carolina knows what they have yet in Clausen. And a 2nd round pick is a pretty high pick to spend on a guy you only tryout for one year. I could see them trying to move down.

[Don't Panic]

They had Brees for a few years before that move and thought they knew what they had in him. They then drafted Rivers, I don't think Carolina knows what they have yet in Clausen. And a 2nd round pick is a pretty high pick to spend on a guy you only tryout for one year. I could see them trying to move down.

I don't know... I think if there's any team of the bunch who will take Luck for sure at #1 it is Carolina. Claussen could be insurance next year or bait to recoup a later pick. I know Detroit won't take Luck, and I have doubts about Cincy, although anything is possible there. I hope if we don't get it, Detroit does (unlikely, but still hopeful). That way we will be in good position to trade up IF Nix thinks it is worth it.

[X-Era]

I don't know... I think if there's any team of the bunch who will take Luck for sure at #1 it is Carolina. Claussen could be insurance next year or bait to recoup a later pick. I know Detroit won't take Luck, and I have doubts about Cincy, although anything is possible there. I hope if we don't get it, Detroit does (unlikely, but still hopeful). That way we will be in good position to trade up IF Nix thinks it is worth it.Don't forget that this job could be Cowhers and he may not like the idea of a rookie at all. Shanny went after McNabb, Cowher may go after any of the possible guys who may be out there.

[Don't Panic]

Don't forget that this job could be Cowhers and he may not like the idea of a rookie at all. Shanny went after McNabb, Cowher may go after any of the possible guys who may be out there.

Good point and I think that would be the case. I can't see Cowher drafting Luck if he's Carolina's head coach. But I could see a lot of other people going that route. We'll see what Claussen does in the next four weeks. If he plays well, they may win a game or two and take themselves out of the hunt. If he doesn't, then they will have the #1 pick and some questions at QB. That = bad for us if you want Luck as a Bill. So... go Claussen!

[X-Era]

Good point and I think that would be the case. I can't see Cowher drafting Luck if he's Carolina's head coach. But I could see a lot of other people going that route. We'll see what Claussen does in the next four weeks. If he plays well, they may win a game or two and take themselves out of the hunt. If he doesn't, then they will have the #1 pick and some questions at QB. That = bad for us if you want Luck as a Bill. So... go Claussen!I think any HC would like a solid vet to go with a rookie. Cowher could add a guy like Palmer, and then may feel good about Claussen as his prospect.

Matt Moore is a FA, and if your Cowher would you rather keep him or get a guy like Palmer? That's not even close.

I think the Bills can afford to take a shot at a rookie QB of the future since they have Fitz. But Carolina only has rookies. Adding another without a vet seems too risky for a guy like Cowher or frankly any new HC.

[better days]

I think any HC would like a solid vet to go with a rookie. Cowher could add a guy like Palmer, and then may feel good about Claussen as his prospect.

Matt Moore is a FA, and if your Cowher would you rather keep him or get a guy like Palmer? That's not even close.

I think the Bills can afford to take a shot at a rookie QB of the future since they have Fitz. But Carolina only has rookies. Adding another without a vet seems too risky for a guy like Cowher or frankly any new HC.

I seriously doubt Cowher would feel good about Clausen for anything but a back up & maybe not even that if he sees anything in Pike.

[X-Era]

I seriously doubt Cowher would feel good about Clausen for anything but a back up & maybe not even that if he sees anything in Pike.I could see that. The issue is more about whether he would be comfortable having his QB depth chart read Luck, Claussen, and Pike... with no vet, and a few likely to be out there.

I just can't see that. I think it more likely that he goes the Bills route and adds a guy who can start now. Furthermore, he may go the Shanny route and get a highly touted vet like a Palmer.

And at that point, we would take the picks and address other areas with a move down and two 1st year guys like Claussen and Pike or still take Luck?

[Don't Panic]

This update should be interesting... I think the Luck sweepstakes just ended for us today. Not that I have a problem with that... getting on of the best DLmen in the draft works just fine for me if we can't have Luck. Plus, Bills win baby!

[psubills62]

This update should be interesting... I think the Luck sweepstakes just ended for us today. Not that I have a problem with that... getting on of the best DLmen in the draft works just fine for me if we can't have Luck. Plus, Bills win baby!

The Luck sweepstakes definitely ended today. I think in the end, we're only hurt by about 1 spot in terms of draft position, and that depends on how our SOS turns out in comparison to Detroit's.

[X-Era]

This update should be interesting... I think the Luck sweepstakes just ended for us today. Not that I have a problem with that... getting on of the best DLmen in the draft works just fine for me if we can't have Luck. Plus, Bills win baby!Trading up is still an option. I think it's highly unlikely but its not unheard of.

A lot can change still on rankings. But, if our top D player isn't there, you could still see talk of Newton or Mallett.

[EDS]

I could see that. The issue is more about whether he would be comfortable having his QB depth chart read Luck, Claussen, and Pike... with no vet, and a few likely to be out there.

I just can't see that. I think it more likely that he goes the Bills route and adds a guy who can start now. Furthermore, he may go the Shanny route and get a highly touted vet like a Palmer.

And at that point, we would take the picks and address other areas with a move down and two 1st year guys like Claussen and Pike or still take Luck?

Cowher knows what he is doing. There is absolutely no way he takes a high priced fading veteran (i.e., Palmer, etc.) as his QB over a potential stud like Luck. Remember, he started Big Ben as a rookie. He would try and lean hard on his running game and hope to cobble together some type of defense. Definitely not a one year turnaround though given how bad that team is.

[X-Era]

Cowher knows what he is doing. There is absolutely no way he takes a high priced fading veteran (i.e., Palmer, etc.) as his QB over a potential stud like Luck. Remember, he started Big Ben as a rookie. He would try and lean hard on his running game and hope to cobble together some type of defense. Definitely not a one year turnaround though given how bad that team is.I don't think it's likely at all that Luck makes it out of the top spot. But trading down a few spots after signing Palmer is an option.

As I said, no HC wants to put all your eggs in a basket with that many unproven guys. Cowher will want to win... and don't forget the defense that Cowher built as well.

[better days]

Cowher knows what he is doing. There is absolutely no way he takes a high priced fading veteran (i.e., Palmer, etc.) as his QB over a potential stud like Luck. Remember, he started Big Ben as a rookie. He would try and lean hard on his running game and hope to cobble together some type of defense. Definitely not a one year turnaround though given how bad that team is.

I disagree with how bad that team is. They need a QB & they will win some games.

[X-Era]

I can see Cinnci being interested in a DT, or Peterson as an upgrade over Wade at LCB. I'd pick Peterson. If TO is gone, maybe Green but probably not.

I think Bowers or Peterson is an option for Detroit, probably not a DT since they have Corey Williams and Suh.

Carolina also could use a DE or DT to play in their 4-3, or Peterson... probably not Green since they have Gettis and LaFell along with Smith... but Green could be an option. I could see Peterson, Dareus, Bowers, maybe Green being a fit for them; besides Luck.

[better days]

Trading up is still an option. I think it's highly unlikely but its not unheard of.

A lot can change still on rankings. But, if our top D player isn't there, you could still see talk of Newton or Mallett.

I think the question is how much Chan & Buddy like Fitz & Brohm. Fitz looks so much better under Chans coaching & offense that I really think the Bills could win with him at QB.

[SquishDaFish]

If we pick around 5 or so I wouldnt be surprised to hear Newtons name

[X-Era]

I think the question is how much Chan & Buddy like Fitz & Brohm. Fitz looks so much better under Chans coaching & offense that I really think the Bills could win with him at QB.To me, Fitz has not proven enough to have the Bills thinking they can skip QB, especially if they think they can get a franchise type. But I do think the Bills will think they can have a solid starter in Fitz for next year and that may make them more willing to take on a bigger project in a guy who needs more grooming. That's another reason I think you will hear more linking us to Newton.

[EDS]

I don't think it's likely at all that Luck makes it out of the top spot. But trading down a few spots after signing Palmer is an option.

As I said, no HC wants to put all your eggs in a basket with that many unproven guys. Cowher will want to win... and don't forget the defense that Cowher built as well.

No way a coach going in to a rebuilding situation takes a dude like Palmer over Luck. No way. Claussen is horrible and I think most people in the NFL realize he is not starter material.

[X-Era]

No way a coach going in to a rebuilding situation takes a dude like Palmer over Luck. No way. Claussen is horrible and I think most people in the NFL realize he is not starter material.Don't be so sure. I fully expect to see a vet get signed in Car.

[EDS]

Don't be so sure. I fully expect to see a vet get signed in Car.

To be a back-up/caddy, yes. To be a legit starter, no.

[TigerJ]

Any conspirators believe that Carolina tanking it on purpose, with "controlling their own destiny" and all? :ontome:I don't believe it would be coming from the coach, John Fox, who is coaching as an audition for his next coaching job. Tanking it isn't going to get him a better job somewhere else. Ialso don't think the players would purposely tank the season in spite of their coach, because they also are auditioning, whether to keep their spot on the Panthers or to improve their chances of signing with another team should the brain trust running Carolina decides to gut the team and rebuild from the ground up. Bottom line: the reasons to doubt a deliberate attempt by Carolina to play for the top draft pick far outweigh the reasons to suspect it.

[psubills62]

Updated after Monday's games

1. Carolina (1-12), SOS = 0.5913
2. Cincinnati (2-11), SOS = 0.5865
3. Denver (3-10), SOS = 0.5096
4. Detroit (3-10), SOS = 0.5529
5. Buffalo (3-10), SOS = 0.5817
6. Arizona (4-9), SOS = 0.4663
7. Dallas (4-9), SOS = 0.5288
8. San Francisco (5-8), SOS = 0.5048

We dropped 1 spot in draft order, and our SOS decreased from 0.58854 to 0.5825. You can see that we are now tied with Cincinnati for SOS, and Carolina has a higher SOS than anyone right now.

While some of the games went the way that I was hoping (see post 19 (http://billszone.com/fanzone/showpost.php?p=3375920&postcount=19)), unfortunately it wasn't the ones that helped us in the situation we're in now, with no chance of tying Carolina and Cincinnati now the only 2-win team.

Considering what happened Sunday, I'm going to switch my earlier breakdown from post 19 and say that we need to root for Minnesota to win (hurts Detroit twice as much as it hurts us).

Right now, not sure if it's possible for us to catch Denver in SOS. I think the highest we can possibly pick is #2, and we'd need a lot of help.

I only included San Fran as a 5-win team because, while there are 5 other 5-win teams, SF was the only one who started with 4 wins prior to this weekend. If the Bills win another game, I'll go ahead and include the other 5-win teams. I'm hoping for some separation before then, though.

After tonight's games, I'll go ahead and see who we need to root for next week.

[EDS]

4-12 here we come!

[psubills62]

Bump, post #92 was updated after Monday's games.

[X-Era]

It looks like its:

1) Car- won, 2 and 12, (.591 SOS)
2) Cinnci- won 3 and 11, (.587 SOS)
3) Den- Yet to play, 3 and 10, (.510 SOS)
4) Ari- Lost, 4 and 10, (.466 SOS)
5) Det- Won, 4 and 10, (.553 SOS)
6) Buff- Won, 4 and 10, (.582 SOS)

The SOS is old and Denver still has yet to play so it will change.

[Slim]

Go Arizona and Detroit!

[TacklingDummy]

It looks like its:

1) Car- won, 2 and 12, (.591 SOS)
2) Cinnci- won 3 and 11, (.587 SOS)
3) Den- Yet to play, 3 and 10, (.510 SOS)
4) Ari- Lost, 4 and 10, (.466 SOS)
5) Det- Won, 4 and 10, (.553 SOS)
6) Buff- Won, 4 and 10, (.582 SOS)

The SOS is old and Denver still has yet to play so it will change.
So the meaningless Lions, Bengals, Dolphins,and Browns wins were very meaningful?

[Slim]

Eagles just won the game on a punt return. What an amazing game. WOW.

[JD]

Grreeatttt there is just no point in winning after going 0-8. **** that "pride" bull****.. having 5-8 wins a year only keeps us mediocre thanks to ****ty draft position and our organization being inept when it comes to assessing talent there.

[psubills62]

It looks like its:

1) Car- won, 2 and 12, (.591 SOS)
2) Cinnci- won 3 and 11, (.587 SOS)
3) Den- Yet to play, 3 and 10, (.510 SOS)
4) Ari- Lost, 4 and 10, (.466 SOS)
5) Det- Won, 4 and 10, (.553 SOS)
6) Buff- Won, 4 and 10, (.582 SOS)

The SOS is old and Denver still has yet to play so it will change.

I'll update it in my Draft Position thread after the rest of the games today.

[Extremebillsfan247]

It looks like its:

1) Car- won, 2 and 12, (.591 SOS)
2) Cinnci- won 3 and 11, (.587 SOS)
3) Den- Yet to play, 3 and 10, (.510 SOS)
4) Ari- Lost, 4 and 10, (.466 SOS)
5) Det- Won, 4 and 10, (.553 SOS)
6) Buff- Won, 4 and 10, (.582 SOS)

The SOS is old and Denver still has yet to play so it will change.If Denver wins today, the next 2 weeks are going to get very interesting. lol This is starting to get good. In a way, we are kind of lucky Dallas won today, What is their sos? Just curious.

[X-Era]

If Denver wins today, the next 2 weeks are going to get very interesting. lol This is starting to get good. In a way, we are kind of lucky Dallas won today, What is their sos? Just curious.Dal- 5 and 9, .529 SOS

[Night Train]

I hope we win out and still receive an offer to trade down in April for more picks.

[mysticsoto]

Denver, Detroit, even Dallas are meaningless if they pick before us in the 1st rd. They will not take a QB. Anybody know how Carolina feels about Clausen?

[X-Era]

Denver, Detroit, even Dallas are meaningless if they pick before us in the 1st rd. They will not take a QB. Anybody know how Carolina feels about Clausen?It's debatable. I think the better question might be how they would feel about Luck.

[SquishDaFish]

Luck isnt going to come out anyway

[X-Era]

Maybe we could draft our franchise QB and draft players on the defense... it's not one or the other. Crazy idea, I know.

[T-Long]

I think when it comes down to it, Buddy and company aren't going to target a specific player going in. They are going to build their board, and when it's their time to select, they will then compare their top two players, see how close their grades are for each one, then select the one that fills their biggest need.

For example:

Let's say Newton and/or Mallett are there, along with Fairley. Let's pretend that the grades are close, I think they go with Fairley in that scenario. This is going to be one of the most interesting first rounds for the Bills since I can remember.

[X-Era]

I think when it comes down to it, Buddy and company aren't going to target a specific player going in. They are going to build their board, and when it's their time to select, they will then compare their top two players, see how close their grades are for each one, then select the one that fills their biggest need.

For example:

Let's say Newton and/or Mallett are there, along with Fairley. Let's pretend that the grades are close, I think they go with Fairley in that scenario. This is going to be one of the most interesting first rounds for the Bills since I can remember.Totally agree. And that's how it should be IMO. Don't reach.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

its gonna be kerrigan, dareus, or trade down...

[T-Long]

so, are we still in the 6th spot? Do we root for Pats or Pack tonight?

[psubills62]

Update:

1. Carolina (2-12), SOS = 0.5695
2. Denver (3-11), SOS = 0.5179
3. Cincinnati (3-11), SOS = 0.5830
4. Arizona (4-10), SOS = 0.4619
5. Detroit (4-10), SOS = 0.5484
6. Buffalo (4-10), SOS = 0.5799
7. San Francisco (5-9), SOS = 0.4888
8. Dallas (5-9), SOS = 0.5204
9. Washington (5-9), SOS = 0.5204
10. Houston (5-9), SOS = 0.5357
11. Cleveland (5-9), SOS = 0.5874
12. Minnesota (5-8), SOS = 0.5342

I'll update this post again after the SNF game. As you can see, one more win will drop us fairly significantly. Although...I do believe Arizona is playing Dallas this coming weekend and thus, Dallas should end up with another win at least.

Sorry, I forgot to put up a post telling everyone who to root for this Sunday. I'll have to remember to do that for next weekend.

[psubills62]

so, are we still in the 6th spot? Do we root for Pats or Pack tonight?

We're 6th. The Packers winning would help us the most for sure. It would hurt Detroit while helping us.

[X-Era]

Update:

1. Carolina (2-12), SOS = 0.5695
2. Denver (3-11), SOS = 0.5179
3. Cincinnati (3-11), SOS = 0.5830
4. Arizona (4-10), SOS = 0.4619
5. Detroit (4-10), SOS = 0.5484
6. Buffalo (4-10), SOS = 0.5799
7. San Francisco (5-9), SOS = 0.4888
8. Dallas (5-9), SOS = 0.5204
9. Washington (5-9), SOS = 0.5204
10. Houston (5-9), SOS = 0.5357
11. Cleveland (5-9), SOS = 0.5874
12. Minnesota (5-8), SOS = 0.5342

I'll update this post again after the SNF game. As you can see, one more win will drop us fairly significantly. Although...I do believe Arizona is playing Dallas this coming weekend and thus, Dallas should end up with another win at least.

Sorry, I forgot to put up a post telling everyone who to root for this Sunday. I'll have to remember to do that for next weekend.Looks like if we win another one with every 5 win team losing, we slide down to 11th.

[X-Era]

Merged for your viewing pleasure.

[G Wolly]

Grreeatttt there is just no point in winning after going 0-8. **** that "pride" bull****.. having 5-8 wins a year only keeps us mediocre thanks to ****ty draft position and our organization being inept when it comes to assessing talent there.

You and every one else upset that we're winning in terms of draft position, shut the **** up.

We can win games with the guys we have.

Is there room to improve? Of course. There always is.

This team isn't horrible. Just because we have a pick outside of the top 5 doesn't make us any worse.

[psubills62]

Looks like if we win another one with every 5 win team losing, we slide down to 11th.

I don't see us winning one more, and I don't see all of those 5-win teams losing out. I'm not even sure it's possible (they may play each other once or twice here). But you're right - winning one more will definitely bump us down. There are too many bad teams from the AFC/NFC West divisions that have shockingly low SOS's.

[T-Long]

To be honest, I can't see us beating New England or the Jets, so I think we end up 4-12. I think that will land the Bills a top 6 pick at worst

[X-Era]

Call it a ridiculous hunch. But, I think we might beat the Pats at home.

[psubills62]

To be honest, I can't see us beating New England or the Jets, so I think we end up 4-12. I think that will land the Bills a top 6 pick at worst

Yep, if we lose out we're guaranteed a top-6 pick. I'm not sure I like being at 6, though. If we end up with the 6th overall pick, I'd kind of prefer to trade down, depending on who falls to us.

I don't see us getting an elite guy there and I'd rather have a top 15 pick, where we can get a top OT and pick up an extra pick. I know I'm in the minority with that preference, though.

[psubills62]

Call it a ridiculous hunch. But, I think we might beat the Pats at home.

Will do :up: Haha I wouldn't be surprised to see us compete with New England, but I don't see us beating them at this point.

[ServoBillieves]

#6's in 2000

Andre Smith, OT
Vernon Gholston, OLB/DE/whatever the hell he is now
LaRon Landry, SS
Vernon Davis, TE
Pacman Jones, CB
Kellen Winslow, TE
Johnathon Sullivan, DT
Ryan Sims, DT
Richard Seymour, DT
Corey Simon, DT

... Hell of a grab bag.

[ServoBillieves]

Also, we always want to trade back, and we never do, so I think we should put that to rest, especially with not many players worth flying up the draft board to grab.

[Mr. Pink]

Also, we always want to trade back, and we never do, so I think we should put that to rest, especially with not many players worth flying up the draft board to grab.

If we're picking around 7th and AJ Green is still available, someone may want to move up to acquire him.

[Extremebillsfan247]

If we're picking around 7th and AJ Green is still available, someone may want to move up to acquire him.What if we took AJ Green because he turns out to be best player on the board? its possible. We took Spiller with both Lynch and Jackson still on the roster. Also, Gailey loves running 4 wide sets. So, adding to the receiving core might play into the so called "Always looking to improve" Gailey philosophy.