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Just so it's clear, I'm not one of the people rooting for the Bills to lose so they get a better draft pick. I personally think that's abhorrent and that people should be rooting more for Nix and co. to draft the best player wherever we pick.
That being said, I know a lot of discussion has occurred regarding draft position, so I though I'd start this thread and keep it going for the last 4 weeks to monitor where we are in the draft and where we could be.
I actually don't mind drafting early (possibly getting a stud on one side of the ball), or somewhat later ( 7-10 range, better value for linemen, especially OL, at that range). However, this thread is mainly for people who want to draft in a high spot (whether or not you want the Bills to win or lose).
Hopefully this will be an informative thread.
Now, let's delve into the numbers, shall we?
Current draft position:
1. Carolina Panthers (1-11), SOS = 0.5833
2. Detroit Lions (2-10), SOS = 0.5677
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10), SOS = 0.5729
4. Buffalo Bills (2-10), SOS = 0.58854
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-9), SOS = 0.47396
6. Denver Broncos (3-9), SOS = 0.5156
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-8), SOS = 0.5104
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-8), SOS = 0.526
That's as far as I got. As you can see, we're actually not that far behind Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati in terms of SOS. In case people are curious how many actual games we're behind those teams in SOS, here's a quick breakdown:
Carolina's opponents' current record: 112-80
Detroit's opponents' current record:109-83
Cincinnati's opponents' current record:110-82
Buffalo's opponents' current record:113-79
As you can see, we're all within a few games, and we're only one game behind Carolina. We're still right in the mix for the #2, and possibly even the #1 overall pick.
I started trying to calculate maximum and minimum possible SOS's for each team, but with the interplay between teams' schedules, it got too complicated. However, I can list who we want to root for each week.
Obviously, if you want to draft as high as possible, you want to root for each team on this list. There are actually 4 games remaining in the season that pit two teams from this list against each other. They are:
Arizona @ Carolina
Dallas @ Arizona
Arizona @ San Francisco
Denver @ Arizona
As you can see, Arizona plays a huge role in the draft position here at the top, and there are a guaranteed 4 wins to be added to those teams. If Buffalo does not win any more games, best case scenario in my mind is Carolina beating Arizona, Arizona then beating Dallas and/or San Fran, then Denver beating the Cardinals.
In terms of Carolina winning one more game...there's a distinct, though somewhat slim, possibility. Obviously Arizona is going to hell in a handbasket, so there's a chance Carolina wins that game. Also, the Panthers play Pittsburgh and Atlanta as their final two games. If both of those teams have created enough separation in their division races, there's again a chance that they'll rest their starters. Not sure that even then the Panthers could win, though.
So anyway, here is a list of teams we want to root against in order to help reduce our SOS:
1. Always root against division opponents - this takes priority over everyone else on here
2. Against AFC North and NFC North teams, as well as KC, Jax
Now note that some of these may seem to conflict with wanting other teams' SOS to increase. For example, if the AFC North teams lose, that actually helps Cincinnati's SOS more than it helps ours. That being said, we're looking to simply drop our SOS, period, mainly because we're looking at more than just one team, we're looking at the Lions and possibly Panthers too. So the best thing to do for now is hope that our SOS drops, even if it helps another team's SOS more. Thus, I'd personally say that rooting for our SOS to decrease takes priority.
Here's the teams we want to root for in order to hurt everyone else's SOS:
Carolina: NFC South, NFC West, NYG
Detroit: NFC North, NFC East, StL, TB
Cincinnati: AFC North, NFC South, SD, Ind
I'd mention Arizona, Denver, San Fran and Dallas' non-common opponents as well, but their SOS's are low enough at this point that I'm not sure how feasible it is for our SOS to decrease lower than theirs.
Anyway, hope that was an insightful breakdown, and I'm sorry for the extremely long post. I'll try to keep on top of this as the season progresses. I'll also go through the games for each week and pick out what I believe to be the best teams to root for or against.
Tonight, root for Indianapolis (hurts Cincinnati).
That being said, I know a lot of discussion has occurred regarding draft position, so I though I'd start this thread and keep it going for the last 4 weeks to monitor where we are in the draft and where we could be.
I actually don't mind drafting early (possibly getting a stud on one side of the ball), or somewhat later ( 7-10 range, better value for linemen, especially OL, at that range). However, this thread is mainly for people who want to draft in a high spot (whether or not you want the Bills to win or lose).
Hopefully this will be an informative thread.
Now, let's delve into the numbers, shall we?
Current draft position:
1. Carolina Panthers (1-11), SOS = 0.5833
2. Detroit Lions (2-10), SOS = 0.5677
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10), SOS = 0.5729
4. Buffalo Bills (2-10), SOS = 0.58854
5. Arizona Cardinals (3-9), SOS = 0.47396
6. Denver Broncos (3-9), SOS = 0.5156
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-8), SOS = 0.5104
8. Dallas Cowboys (4-8), SOS = 0.526
That's as far as I got. As you can see, we're actually not that far behind Carolina, Detroit, and Cincinnati in terms of SOS. In case people are curious how many actual games we're behind those teams in SOS, here's a quick breakdown:
Carolina's opponents' current record: 112-80
Detroit's opponents' current record:109-83
Cincinnati's opponents' current record:110-82
Buffalo's opponents' current record:113-79
As you can see, we're all within a few games, and we're only one game behind Carolina. We're still right in the mix for the #2, and possibly even the #1 overall pick.
I started trying to calculate maximum and minimum possible SOS's for each team, but with the interplay between teams' schedules, it got too complicated. However, I can list who we want to root for each week.
Obviously, if you want to draft as high as possible, you want to root for each team on this list. There are actually 4 games remaining in the season that pit two teams from this list against each other. They are:
Arizona @ Carolina
Dallas @ Arizona
Arizona @ San Francisco
Denver @ Arizona
As you can see, Arizona plays a huge role in the draft position here at the top, and there are a guaranteed 4 wins to be added to those teams. If Buffalo does not win any more games, best case scenario in my mind is Carolina beating Arizona, Arizona then beating Dallas and/or San Fran, then Denver beating the Cardinals.
In terms of Carolina winning one more game...there's a distinct, though somewhat slim, possibility. Obviously Arizona is going to hell in a handbasket, so there's a chance Carolina wins that game. Also, the Panthers play Pittsburgh and Atlanta as their final two games. If both of those teams have created enough separation in their division races, there's again a chance that they'll rest their starters. Not sure that even then the Panthers could win, though.
So anyway, here is a list of teams we want to root against in order to help reduce our SOS:
1. Always root against division opponents - this takes priority over everyone else on here
2. Against AFC North and NFC North teams, as well as KC, Jax
Now note that some of these may seem to conflict with wanting other teams' SOS to increase. For example, if the AFC North teams lose, that actually helps Cincinnati's SOS more than it helps ours. That being said, we're looking to simply drop our SOS, period, mainly because we're looking at more than just one team, we're looking at the Lions and possibly Panthers too. So the best thing to do for now is hope that our SOS drops, even if it helps another team's SOS more. Thus, I'd personally say that rooting for our SOS to decrease takes priority.
Here's the teams we want to root for in order to hurt everyone else's SOS:
Carolina: NFC South, NFC West, NYG
Detroit: NFC North, NFC East, StL, TB
Cincinnati: AFC North, NFC South, SD, Ind
I'd mention Arizona, Denver, San Fran and Dallas' non-common opponents as well, but their SOS's are low enough at this point that I'm not sure how feasible it is for our SOS to decrease lower than theirs.
Anyway, hope that was an insightful breakdown, and I'm sorry for the extremely long post. I'll try to keep on top of this as the season progresses. I'll also go through the games for each week and pick out what I believe to be the best teams to root for or against.
Tonight, root for Indianapolis (hurts Cincinnati).
Great post! Looks like you put a lot of work into it and it wasn't hard to follow either.
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