Draft order, relevant games, predictions.

[YardRat]

Carolina 2-13 - locked in, at Atlanta.
Denver 4-11 - home vs San Diego.
Cincinnati 4-11 - at Baltimore.
Buffalo 4-11 - at NY Jets.
San Fran 5-10 - home vs Arizona.
Houston 5-10 - home vs Jacksonville.
Detroit 5-10 - home vs Minnesota
Dallas 5-10 - at Philadelphia.
Cleveland 5-10 - home vs Pittsburgh.
Arizona 5-10 - at San Fran.

If Buffalo loses...Cincinnati loses, and San Diego runs for the bus. Bills pick third. Final standings =

Carolina 2-14
Cincinnati 4-12
Buffalo 4-12

If Buffalo wins...San Fran, Detroit, Dallas and Cleveland lose to remain at 5 wins, Denver wins to get to 5, and Arizona and Houston win to get to 6. Bills pick 8th. Maybe 7th, if Detroit can handle Minnesota.

Carolina 2-14
Cincinnati 4-12
San Fran 5-11
Denver 5-11
Dallas 5-11
Cleveland 5-11
Detroit 5-11
Buffalo 5-11
Houston 6-10
Arizona 6-10

[psubills62]

If the Bills and Cincy both lose, then we could still pick in front of them. We will need KC and Jacksonville both to lose, and at least one of San Diego/Indy to win.

At this point, best case scenario is Buffalo/Cincy losing, Denver winning. Indy wins and KC/Jax both lose. Then we're tied with Cincy in terms of SOS and we will hopefully win the coin toss.

[T-Long]

sweet. Thanks for the info fellas

[ParanoidAndroid]

If the Bills and Cincy both lose, then we could still pick in front of them. We will need KC and Jacksonville both to lose, and at least one of San Diego/Indy to win.

At this point, best case scenario is Buffalo/Cincy losing, Denver winning. Indy wins and KC/Jax both lose. Then we're tied with Cincy in terms of SOS and we will hopefully win the coin toss.

Will there be a coin toss if Buffalo beat Cinci earlier this year?

[TacklingDummy]

Where would the Bills be picking without the meaningless Bengals, Lions, Browns victories?

[SquishDaFish]

Where would the Bills be picking without the meaningless Bengals, Lions, Browns victories?

Give it a break TD. I rather win a few games rather then be winless. Doesnt matter where you pick its who you pick

[BillsWin]

All the ifs ands and buts make my head hurt. I just watch the game on Sunday and pray things work out.

[psubills62]

Will there be a coin toss if Buffalo beat Cinci earlier this year?

Yes. Head to head has no bearing on draft order.

[The Natrix]

At this point, best case scenario is Buffalo/Cincy losing, Denver winning. Indy wins and KC/Jax both lose. Then we're tied with Cincy in terms of SOS and we will hopefully win the coin toss.

Knowing the Bills, this situation will play out but they'll lose the coin flip. Then Cincy will take Luck and the Bengals will get to the AFC championship next season.

[MikeInRoch]

Where would the Bills be picking without the meaningless Bengals, Lions, Browns victories?

Irrelevant.

[soapman]

Cinci picking 2 is irrelevant. They won't be looking at QB if Carolina doesn't pick Luck at 1....I don't think at least.

[Buddo]

Yes. Head to head has no bearing on draft order.

Are you sure about that?

I know that if it does, it's about the last determining factor before a coin toss, but that would still put the Bungles ahead of us, even if SOS becomes the same..

I'd also say that it isn't as clear cut as people think, in respect of SOS. That can change quite a bit dependant on how a lot of results go, it isn't simply a case of if one team wins their SOS will be 'this', as it's determined by the whole record of the teams they played against during the season. That can allow for some quite odd swings in SOS after the last games have all been played.

As of now, I think the only assumption you can genuinely make, is that the Bills will pick no higher than 2nd, and no lower than 9th (because although there are 6 teams on 5 wins already, two of them - the Cards and 49ers - play each other).

[YardRat]

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING


Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage. If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1. Strength of schedule.
2. Division/conference tie-breakers, if applicable.
3. Coin flip.

[Buddo]

But what are the division/conference breakers? Would they include head to head?

[Night Train]

I'm really not in the panic others are over winning the game today. I follow college and know the actual suspects near the top of this draft.

Luck should come out. CB Peterson of LSU is near the top. Ditto for WR Green of Georgia. CB Amukamara of Nebraska. WR Blackmon of Oklahoma St. Even QB Mallett of Arkansas (don't like him at all).

I'm hoping the Bills are wise enough to see they need DL help in a 4-3 set ( which is good for Kyle Williams ). They need a DT and another DE within the first 3-4 picks in the draft that can play. I see Carrington as someone who needs to play. Stroud looks done and Dwan Edwards is nothing special.

A MLB not named Poz is also a big need.

DT/DE Darius of Alabama, DT Fairley of Auburn, DE Bowers of Clemson, DT Paea of Oregon St....if any of those and a couple others are still there, then why the attention grabbing act of " OMG, We're picking 8th or 9th ! We blew it ! "

These guys would instantly help updrade the D line, if that's what the Bills wish to do.

I will not be impressed with anyone screaming if the Bills do win today. It's blind leading the blind.

[YardRat]

But what are the division/conference breakers? Would they include head to head?

I would say Yes...the following would kick in before a coin toss.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs


Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs


Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss. Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES


Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."

[Albany,n.y.]

Give it a break TD. I rather win a few games rather then be winless. Doesnt matter where you pick its who you pick
If the player you want to pick gets picked a player or two before you pick, you end up with Marshawn Lynch instead of Patrick Willis and JP Losman, after trading away the pick that a year later would get you Aaron Rodgers, instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Talk about a double screwing-missing out by 2 picks of getting Roethlisberger-who Donahoe tried desperately to trade up for, then trading the 2005 pick to Dallas & watching Green Bay take Rodgers & see him become a franchise QB.
How can you make the statement that it doesn't matter where you pick after seeing the Bills miss key players, that they wanted by a couple of picks? If you really think it doesn't matter, you must have been lost on a desert island the last decade as the Bills watched the player they coveted the most go somewhere else because they won 1 extra meaningless game.
Lombardi, had it right-winning isn't everything, but it's the only thing. He wasn't talking about the difference between winning game 5 or staying at 4 for the season in the final game. He was talking about winning championships. That starts with impact players-the ones who the Bills keep missing on acquiring because they won 5 games instead of 4, 6 games instead of 5, 7 games instead of 6 etc. When you've clinched last place EVERY game is a meaningless game.

[SquishDaFish]

If the player you want to pick gets picked a player or two before you pick, you end up with Marshawn Lynch instead of Patrick Willis and JP Losman, after trading away the pick that a year later would get you Aaron Rodgers, instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Talk about a double screwing-missing out by 2 picks of getting Roethlisberger-who Donahoe tried desperately to trade up for, then trading the 2005 pick to Dallas & watching Green Bay take Rodgers & see him become a franchise QB.
How can you make the statement that it doesn't matter where you pick after seeing the Bills miss key players, that they wanted by a couple of picks? If you really think it doesn't matter, you must have been lost on a desert island the last decade as the Bills watched the player they coveted the most go somewhere else because they won 1 extra meaningless game.
Lombardi, had it right-winning isn't everything, but it's the only thing. He wasn't talking about the difference between winning game 5 or staying at 4 for the season in the final game. He was talking about winning championships. That starts with impact players-the ones who the Bills keep missing on acquiring because they won 5 games instead of 4, 6 games instead of 5, 7 games instead of 6 etc. When you've clinched last place EVERY game is a meaningless game.

First off its not where you pick its HOW you pick. Have we been screwing it up YES but its not because of where we picked. The draft is a crapshoot you need to pick right. How do you know for sure the Bills even wanted Big Ben seeing that they couldnt tell talent back then at all.

[YardRat]

If the player you want to pick gets picked a player or two before you pick, you end up with Marshawn Lynch instead of Patrick Willis and JP Losman, after trading away the pick that a year later would get you Aaron Rodgers, instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Talk about a double screwing-missing out by 2 picks of getting Roethlisberger-who Donahoe tried desperately to trade up for, then trading the 2005 pick to Dallas & watching Green Bay take Rodgers & see him become a franchise QB.
How can you make the statement that it doesn't matter where you pick after seeing the Bills miss key players, that they wanted by a couple of picks? If you really think it doesn't matter, you must have been lost on a desert island the last decade as the Bills watched the player they coveted the most go somewhere else because they won 1 extra meaningless game.
Lombardi, had it right-winning isn't everything, but it's the only thing. He wasn't talking about the difference between winning game 5 or staying at 4 for the season in the final game. He was talking about winning championships. That starts with impact players-the ones who the Bills keep missing on acquiring because they won 5 games instead of 4, 6 games instead of 5, 7 games instead of 6 etc. When you've clinched last place EVERY game is a meaningless game.

They still could've (should've IMO at the time) taken Revis instead of Lynch, Ngata instead of Whitner while not trading up for McCargo and taken Marcus McNeil with their second instead, gotten Rodgers in '05 if they didn't trade that pick away for Losman, not to mention Bob Sanders in '04.

SS Sanders, QB Rodgers, LT McNeil, DT/DE Ngata, and CB Revis instead of Lynch, Whitner, McCargo and Losman just via picking wisely and not trading away picks.

It isn't where you draft...it's how and who.

[HHURRICANE]

Why in the hell would anyone want the Bills to win today? How many meaningless games have we won only to lose Big Ben in favor of J P Losman.

Draft order matters, not only for the first round, but the 2nd and 3rd rounds as well.

I am the biggest Jets fan ever today.

[HHURRICANE]

If the player you want to pick gets picked a player or two before you pick, you end up with Marshawn Lynch instead of Patrick Willis and JP Losman, after trading away the pick that a year later would get you Aaron Rodgers, instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Talk about a double screwing-missing out by 2 picks of getting Roethlisberger-who Donahoe tried desperately to trade up for, then trading the 2005 pick to Dallas & watching Green Bay take Rodgers & see him become a franchise QB.
How can you make the statement that it doesn't matter where you pick after seeing the Bills miss key players, that they wanted by a couple of picks? If you really think it doesn't matter, you must have been lost on a desert island the last decade as the Bills watched the player they coveted the most go somewhere else because they won 1 extra meaningless game.
Lombardi, had it right-winning isn't everything, but it's the only thing. He wasn't talking about the difference between winning game 5 or staying at 4 for the season in the final game. He was talking about winning championships. That starts with impact players-the ones who the Bills keep missing on acquiring because they won 5 games instead of 4, 6 games instead of 5, 7 games instead of 6 etc. When you've clinched last place EVERY game is a meaningless game.

Post of the day!!!

[NOT THE DUDE...]

i think if we pick 8/9 then we take gabe carimi or ryan kerrigan, if we lose we take fairley or dareus...

[TacklingDummy]

It isn't where you draft...it's how and who.
It's all 3.

It starts with where and meaningless victories only hurt the where.

[YardRat]

Looks like these are going to be the only relevant teams at this point...

Carolina 2-13 - locked in, at Atlanta.
Denver 4-11 - home vs San Diego.
Cincinnati 4-11 - at Baltimore.
Buffalo 4-11 - at NY Jets.

Carolina's a lock and we're going to end with 4...Cincinnati still has a chance, but doubtful they'll come back on Baltimore. If Denver beats San Diego, we move up into third.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

td cincy! 13-7

[T-Long]

worst case 4th, best case 3rd

[NOT THE DUDE...]

worst case 4th, best case 3rd

best case is 2nd if cincy and den win...

[The Natrix]

I thought best case can still be 2nd?

[SquishDaFish]

If Cincy can come back yes 2nd is best

[psubills62]

We can still get 2nd even if Cincy loses, but we'd need a coin flip to go our way.

[BuffaloBlitz83]

Is it true, We can be 2nd if Denver loses? Because of Raiders beating KC. I read that somewhere. Based on SOS

[The Natrix]

At this point, best case scenario is Buffalo/Cincy losing, Denver winning. Indy wins and KC/Jax both lose. Then we're tied with Cincy in terms of SOS and we will hopefully win the coin toss.

umm, so is this accurate or not?

[psubills62]

Is it true, We can be 2nd if Denver loses? Because of Raiders beating KC. I read that somewhere. Based on SOS

No way. Denver's SOS is far, far weaker than ours. No possible way for us to catch them. To get to 2nd, Denver has to win.

However, if Denver loses, it's very possible we can get to 3rd place. We just need Jacksonville to lose and Indy to win.

[BuffaloBlitz83]

CINCY DRIVING!

[Michael82]

Here we go! Bengals looking to make the comeback. Let's go Cincy! :pray:

[SquishDaFish]

Watch the cinci game they might win LOL

[BuffaloBlitz83]

INSIDE 10!

[BuffaloBlitz83]

to the 2!

[BuffaloBlitz83]

4th and 2 come on!

[SquishDaFish]

1 play to go. Come on CINCI!!

[SquishDaFish]

DAMN!!

[BuffaloBlitz83]

ugh

[X-Era]

We can still get 2nd even if Cincy loses, but we'd need a coin flip to go our way.Hey man. What do the SOS's look like?

[NOT THE DUDE...]

****ing palmer misses wide open wr... lol

[Michael82]

Son of a *****! ****ing Carson Palmer couldn't do it! He had 2 downs at the 2-yard line and couldn't get the touchdown.

[psubills62]

Hey man. What do the SOS's look like?

Let me update them really quickly, but last I checked, it all depends on KC and Jax for us, and Indy/SD for Cincy. The other stuff will all stay the same.

[Michael82]

Hey man. What do the SOS's look like?

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/article299497.ece

[Michael82]

If Indy beats Tennessee and the Texans beat the Jaguars, the Bills and Bengals would finish tied with SOS and would have to do a coin flip.

If the Broncos beat the Chargers, the worst the Bills can finish is 3rd overall pick.

[psubills62]

Cincy's opponents are 147-107 (0.5787)
Buffalo's opponents are 147-106 (0.5810)

We can still get 2nd, but need a Denver win and a coin toss to go our way. If Denver loses, we should still be able to get 3rd, since that means SD won (as long as Jax loses and Indy wins).

[EricStratton]

Since the draft isn't until April why not wait 3 hours and then we will know who beat who.

[The Natrix]

Anyone have a working link to the jags game? I can't get it for some reason.

[SquishDaFish]

Since the draft isn't until April why not wait 3 hours and then we will know who beat who.

Because rooting for teams makes watching the games that much more fun???

[SquishDaFish]

Anyone have a working link to the jags game? I can't get it for some reason.

I do on the Sunday Ticket

[Joe Fo Sho]

Since the draft isn't until April why not wait 3 hours and then we will know who beat who.

Haha, that'd be way too long. Immediate gratification, that's what I want.

[The Natrix]

nevermind, got it.

[The Natrix]

http://atdhe.net/31743/watch-jacksonville-jaguars-vs-houston-texans

[The Natrix]

7-0 Denver

[baalworship]

We need Peyton Manning to win and Trent Edwards to lose. Seems doable!

[YardRat]

Balls...San Diego is starting to roll Denver...23-7, early in the third.

[The Natrix]

Too bad Tebow Blows.

[Slim]

Balls...San Diego is starting to roll Denver...23-7, early in the third.

If Denver loses does that put us at #4?

[baalworship]

If Denver loses does that put us at #4?

No actually helps us move ahead of Cinci. We also need Indy to win and Jax to lose and then we get #3 pick.

[Slim]

No actually helps us move ahead of Cinci. We also need Indy to win and Jax to lose and then we get #3 pick.

That looks very plausible.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

No actually helps us move ahead of Cinci. We also need Indy to win and Jax to lose and then we get #3 pick.

and a coin flip?

[baalworship]

That looks very plausible.


Trent Edwards losing is always plausible!

[Slim]

and a coin flip?

I don't believe so.

[YardRat]

Tennessee is going blow-for-blow with Indy.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

**** 20-20

[baalworship]

I don't believe so.

Here is report from WGR550 website on draft order:

Draft position update


"According to WGR's Joe Buscaglia, the Bills can finish no worse than the 4th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. How can it improve?

The Bills can get the 3rd overall pick with a San Diego, Indianapolis and Houston win. The Bills will wind up in a tie for the 2nd overall pick with Cincinnati if they get a Denver, Indianapolis and Houston win.

We'll post any updates throughout the night!

Filed Under :
Topics: Sports
Social: National Football League Draft, Sports
Locations: Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego
People: Joe Buscaglia"

[psubills62]

and a coin flip?

Not if Denver loses. If Denver won, it would come down to a coin flip.

[Slim]

**** 20-20

Go Peyton.

[Mr. Pink]

Well Denver ain't winning.

[baalworship]

Houston up by 17. Means Indy win and we move up to at least #3.

[mysticsoto]

If the Titans win, I'm going to throw up. Indy just fumbled with 1:34 left! :scared:

And they're at the 34 (almost in field goal range).

[Mr. Pink]

If the Titans win, I'm going to throw up. Indy just fumbled with 1:34 left! :scared:

And they're at the 34 (almost in field goal range).


They're well within Bironas range already....and then fumble it away lol

[mysticsoto]

YES! Titans fumble...

[mysticsoto]

It's pissing me off that the Titans seem to want this game more than Indy!!! Finally...a decent grab by a WR without fumbling it...

[Luisito23]

COLTS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BuffaloBlitz83]

we are picking 3rd!

[Buffalogic]

Car - Pass on Luck to build around Clausen

Den - Pass on Luck to build around Tebow Mania

Buf - Luck