QB in the first Round

[jdbillsfan]

8 of the 12 playoff teams have a QB that was drafted in the 1st round. If you count Drew Brees who was the first pick in the second round, that is 9....75%

Without manipulating the data too much, the Seahawks have a worse record than both the giants and the bucs, which is two more qbs that were drafted in the first round. 8 out of 12 seems to prove the point, but if you add Brees and Freeman or Eli, then it goes up to 10-12, which is over 80%.

QB isn't the only factor in bringing a team to the playoffs, strong D, running game, etc. but it is a fairly telling stat.

Its always nice to hit on a 6th rounder like Brady, but seems like most successful QB's are drafted in the first round.

[Bangarang]

Re: QB in the first Round

Fitz is not the answer. Don't care if we draft him in the 1st round or 7th round, but we need a guy that can be the man for many years to come.

[BidsJr]

Re: QB in the first Round

Nice job digging that up. QB is the most important position in all of Football.

[Beebe's Kid]

Re: QB in the first Round

I don't care if there is a guy there or not...with a stat like that you have to have a 1st round QB...and we have to have him now!!

[cocamide]

Re: QB in the first Round

I don't care if there is a guy there or not...with a stat like that you have to have a 1st round QB...and we have to have him now!!

I think the stat's a little misleading. 8 out of the 12 QBs are 1st rounders, that's about 66.6%. I was bored enough to look at the teams that have 1st round QBs and it seems to be about 18 out of 32 for around 56%. The teams are listed below, let me know if I made any mistakes. A completely random sampling of the 32 teams would give about 7 out of the 12 teams having 1st round QBs. 8 out of 12 versus 7 out of 12 (if it was just random) doesn't seem to be much different or significant. Anyone with some background in statistics?

Basically, it doesn't seem that there's a correlation between having a 1st round QB and being a playoff team. That stats you presented are just representative of the entire NFL.

Teams with first round QBs: Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Raiders, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Bears, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, 49ers

Teams without first round QBs: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Browns, Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks

Teams that were iffy were the Broncos (they ended up starting a 1st rounder) and Lions (they ended up having to start a non-first rounder).

[OpIv37]

Re: QB in the first Round

It's called luck.

Yes, we need a franchise QB. Unfortunately, no QB in this draft is worthy of the #3 pick. So, we can pick a QB in the 1st but it ain't getting us to the playoffs.

Our demand does nothing to increase supply.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: QB in the first Round

8 of the 12 playoff teams have a QB that was drafted in the 1st round. If you count Drew Brees who was the first pick in the second round, that is 9....75%.

The two lowest-picked QB in the playoffs (Hasselbeck was picked in the 6th, but at #184 higher than Brady) were both selected by the Patriots.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: QB in the first Round

It's called luck.

He decided to stay in school.

[YardRat]

Re: QB in the first Round

The top 8 teams in the league, fewest points allowed, are in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, NY Jets, New Orleans and New England.

KC is 11th (for a total of 9 of 12 also), Philly 22, Indy 23, Seattle 25.

The first four have proven historically that defense wins, regardless of the QB.
Atlanta's success this season is more indicative of defense and a run-heavy offense.
If you think Sanchez is a bigger cog for the Jets than their defense, I can't help you.
New Orleans is pretty balanced, Brady and New England are an anomaly.
Indy is notorious for under-achieving in the playoffs, except for the one season their defense completely stepped up.

Build a dominant defense, and QB's become interchangeable.

[Night Train]

Re: QB in the first Round

Look at all the first round busts at QB. That list is infinite.

There is no bigger gamble than selecting a QB in the first round. If you miss, like MOST do, your franchise pays for that error many years over. So GM"s better do their homework and make sure that prized QB can succeed on and off the field.

[X-Era]

Re: QB in the first Round

I think the stat's a little misleading. 8 out of the 12 QBs are 1st rounders, that's about 66.6%. I was bored enough to look at the teams that have 1st round QBs and it seems to be about 18 out of 32 for around 56%. The teams are listed below, let me know if I made any mistakes. A completely random sampling of the 32 teams would give about 7 out of the 12 teams having 1st round QBs. 8 out of 12 versus 7 out of 12 (if it was just random) doesn't seem to be much different or significant. Anyone with some background in statistics?

Basically, it doesn't seem that there's a correlation between having a 1st round QB and being a playoff team. That stats you presented are just representative of the entire NFL.

Teams with first round QBs: Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Raiders, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Bears, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, 49ers

Teams without first round QBs: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Browns, Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks

Teams that were iffy were the Broncos (they ended up starting a 1st rounder) and Lions (they ended up having to start a non-first rounder).

Wheres the lack of a correlation? Do more non 1st round QB's go the playoffs or do more 1st round QB's go to the playoffs?

[X-Era]

Re: QB in the first Round

It's called luck.

Yes, we need a franchise QB. Unfortunately, no QB in this draft is worthy of the #3 pick. So, we can pick a QB in the 1st but it ain't getting us to the playoffs.

Our demand does nothing to increase supply.

Wheres the data for that statement? You could very well end up being right, but there is too much left to be determined and the offseason affects these rankings. We simply don't know yet.

[better days]

Re: QB in the first Round

I think the stat's a little misleading. 8 out of the 12 QBs are 1st rounders, that's about 66.6%. I was bored enough to look at the teams that have 1st round QBs and it seems to be about 18 out of 32 for around 56%. The teams are listed below, let me know if I made any mistakes. A completely random sampling of the 32 teams would give about 7 out of the 12 teams having 1st round QBs. 8 out of 12 versus 7 out of 12 (if it was just random) doesn't seem to be much different or significant. Anyone with some background in statistics?

Basically, it doesn't seem that there's a correlation between having a 1st round QB and being a playoff team. That stats you presented are just representative of the entire NFL.

Teams with first round QBs: Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Raiders, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Bears, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, 49ers

Teams without first round QBs: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Browns, Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks

Teams that were iffy were the Broncos (they ended up starting a 1st rounder) and Lions (they ended up having to start a non-first rounder).

Well, if you compare the teams with 1st rnd QB's to the teams without, there are many more GOOD teams in the 1st rnd QB list than the other list.

[ddaryl]

Re: QB in the first Round

yes we simply must draft a 1st rd QB regardless because when we draft that 1st rd QB we will be rewarded automatically with playoff success and many Superbowl's.

It seems blatantly obvious that drafting a 1st rd QB for the sake of it will pay us many dividends

[better days]

Re: QB in the first Round

Look at all the first round busts at QB. That list is infinite.

There is no bigger gamble than selecting a QB in the first round. If you miss, like MOST do, your franchise pays for that error many years over. So GM"s better do their homework and make sure that prized QB can succeed on and off the field.

The reason there are so many QB busts in the 1st rnd is because there are so many QB's taken in the 1st because it is such an important position. I don't think teams that miss on a QB pays for missing anymore than if they had drafted a LT that failed in the 1st.

They only pay because they still don't have the QB they are looking for. Look at Miami for example. They hit on the LT in Long, but are still a bad team because they don't have a QB. They could have had Matt Ryan instead & they would be a far better team today, but they were afraid to take a chance on him.