Buddy Nix's draft history

[psubills62]

DISCLAIMERS: 1) I don't pretend that Buddy Nix was directly responsible for every pick here, 2) this list is purely a representation of the drafts during his time at San Diego, 3) I'm also not guaranteeing Nix will follow the same pattern that these drafts did, 4) conclusions from this "analysis" are in no way universal, as every draft is different, team needs are different, etc.

The only purpose of this thread is to show people how Nix may draft in the future based on how the Chargers' drafts went with him as a significant figure in the war room.

That being said, here's the first round picks by the Chargers from 2001-2008 (Nix's tenure there):

2001: RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5 overall)
2002: CB Quentin Jammer (#5 overall)
2003: CB Sammy Davis (#30 overall)
2004: QB Eli Manning (#1 overall)
2005: OLB Shawne Merriman (#12 overall), DE Luis Castillo (#28 overall)
2006: CB Antonio Cromartie (#19 overall)
2007: WR Craig Davis (#30 overall)
2008: CB Antoine Cason (#27 overall)

I should also note that they drafted QB Drew Brees #32 overall in 2001 (first pick of the 2nd round).

As you can see, all the people who don't want Patrick Peterson may very well end up being disappointed. The Chargers chose CB's in the first round four times out of nine possible picks. They also focused almost solely on skill positions in the first round, with the 2005 draft being the only exception.

A further positional breakdown of all the Chargers' picks between 2001 and 2008:
QB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot is 82nd overall
RB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot of 114th overall
WR: 5 chosen, average of 91st overall
TE: 3 chosen, average of 134th overall
OT: 10 chosen, average of 169th overall
OG/C: 5 chosen, average of 150th overall
DE: 3 chosen, average of 65th overall
DT: 2 chosen, average of 214th overall
LB: 9 chosen, average of 121st overall
DB: 11 chosen, average of 83rd overall

Also, DB Paul Oliver was chosen in the supplemental draft (4th round), and was not included in this analysis. One punter, one kicker, and two FB's were chosen as well, but were not included.

Before discussing any overall conclusions, I think it would be helpful to compare the Chargers' first draft with Nix to our first draft with him as GM. Here are the picks from the Chargers' 2001 draft:
Round 1, #5. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB
Round 2, #32. Drew Brees, QB
Round 3, #67. Tay Cody, CB
Round 4, #112. Carlos Polk, LB
Round 5, #132. Elliot Silvers, OT
Round 5, #139. Zeke Moreno, LB
Round 7, #201. Brandon Gorin, OT
Round 7, #244. Robert Carswell, DB

So in both cases (our 2010 draft and Chargers' 2001 draft), a RB was taken in the top 10. Also, in the later rounds two LB's were chosen and two OT's were chosen. Overall, fairly similar drafts, with a couple differences.

Another thing to note is that the Chargers did not draft a single DL from 2001-2003.

What can we make of this? Since this post is fairly haphazard so far, here's some numbers to put a little order back into the post:
1) Three positions that the Chargers focused on while Nix was there were DB's, LB's, and OT's, in that order regarding priority. One thing that I am unsure of is if the Chargers ever transitioned from a 4-3 to 3-4 during those 8 years, which may have cause the high number of LB's to be drafted.
2) Very few DL were chosen, but when they were, DE's got very high priority.
3) When they (the Chargers with Nix) got a chance to draft a QB, they did so. They managed to get two quality, franchise guys - Rivers (from trading Manning) and Brees. Three of the four QB's chosen by the Chargers in that time span were selected in the first three rounds.
4) DB's had a high priority, especially CB's.
5) While a lot of OT's were chosen, only two were selected higher than the 5th round (Courtney Van Buren and Marcus McNeill).
6) It seems the majority of San Diego's picks in the top 2-3 rounds worked out pretty well - Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Nick Hardwick, Eric Weddle, Antoine Cason, Igor Olshansky, Luis Castillo, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Drayton Florence, Ben Leber, etc.
7) 2008 was the only draft where the Chargers didn't select at least one LB.

What does this mean for 2011's draft?
1) Based on this, I'd expect Peterson or Dareus to be the first round pick (in that order). DE's and CB's both seem to have high priority.
2) I'd expect a DE to be drafted within the first three rounds. Olshansky and Castillo were both drafted high within a year of each other. I think the DL is something of a priority for the Bills, and I suspect it was for the Chargers then too.
3) I seriously doubt any RB's will be drafted (:phew:)
4) I'd expect 2+ OL to be selected.
5) Even if Peterson is not the first round pick, I have little doubt we'll get 1-2 DB's somewhere in this draft.
6) At least one LB will be taken, probably in the middle rounds (3-5)
7) I believe they'll take a QB in the first 3 rounds.


As I mentioned in the disclaimer, none of these are hard and fast rules. These are primarily my expectations for the 2011 draft based on 1) the Chargers' drafts with Nix on board, and 2) our 2010 draft with Nix at the helm.

What do you guys think about this? Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?

[zone]

Nice writeup you put a lot of work into it.

I think that Nix most likely has his thoughts on how to re-build a team and will probably follow some kind of formula. I think that building a team for western NY may differ slightly than building a team for southern California, but that is just my opinion.

[psubills62]

Nice writeup you put a lot of work into it.

I think that Nix most likely has his thoughts on how to re-build a team and will probably follow some kind of formula. I think that building a team for western NY may differ slightly than building a team for southern California, but that is just my opinion.
There are other factors to consider with a northeastern team, but you're right that there's probably a general formula Nix is going to try to follow.

[BidsJr]

I agree with most of this, I predicted last year the we would go Spiller/McCoy with the first 2 picks. Obviously I overvalued him as he went quite a bit later on in the draft.

Considering how unimpactful Jammer has been as a #5 overall pick, I am sceptical that Peterson goes @ #3. As I have stated no CB is worth a top #3 pick ever.....

[DraftBoy]

Id be interested to see how their FA corresponds with that analysis. Im trying to remember if they brought in much OL or DL help.

[jimbledsoe]

PSU, thanks for getting that info. It is very interesting. My hope is that where a player, or what position that player plays is not Nix's concern. My hope is he cares about how they play at that position, and how they can play in the NFL.

[psubills62]

Id be interested to see how their FA corresponds with that analysis. Im trying to remember if they brought in much OL or DL help.

I would like to see that too. I was too lazy to look that sort of thing up, unfortunately.

[Nighthawk]

DISCLAIMERS: 1) I don't pretend that Buddy Nix was directly responsible for every pick here, 2) this list is purely a representation of the drafts during his time at San Diego, 3) I'm also not guaranteeing Nix will follow the same pattern that these drafts did, 4) conclusions from this "analysis" are in no way universal, as every draft is different, team needs are different, etc.

The only purpose of this thread is to show people how Nix may draft in the future based on how the Chargers' drafts went with him as a significant figure in the war room.

That being said, here's the first round picks by the Chargers from 2001-2008 (Nix's tenure there):

2001: RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5 overall)
2002: CB Quentin Jammer (#5 overall)
2003: CB Sammy Davis (#30 overall)
2004: QB Eli Manning (#1 overall)
2005: OLB Shawne Merriman (#12 overall), DE Luis Castillo (#28 overall)
2006: CB Antonio Cromartie (#19 overall)
2007: WR Craig Davis (#30 overall)
2008: CB Antoine Cason (#27 overall)

I should also note that they drafted QB Drew Brees #32 overall in 2001 (first pick of the 2nd round).

As you can see, all the people who don't want Patrick Peterson may very well end up being disappointed. The Chargers chose CB's in the first round four times out of nine possible picks. They also focused almost solely on skill positions in the first round, with the 2005 draft being the only exception.

A further positional breakdown of all the Chargers' picks between 2001 and 2008:
QB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot is 82nd overall
RB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot of 114th overall
WR: 5 chosen, average of 91st overall
TE: 3 chosen, average of 134th overall
OT: 10 chosen, average of 169th overall
OG/C: 5 chosen, average of 150th overall
DE: 3 chosen, average of 65th overall
DT: 2 chosen, average of 214th overall
LB: 9 chosen, average of 121st overall
DB: 11 chosen, average of 83rd overall

Also, DB Paul Oliver was chosen in the supplemental draft (4th round), and was not included in this analysis. One punter, one kicker, and two FB's were chosen as well, but were not included.

Before discussing any overall conclusions, I think it would be helpful to compare the Chargers' first draft with Nix to our first draft with him as GM. Here are the picks from the Chargers' 2001 draft:
Round 1, #5. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB
Round 2, #32. Drew Brees, QB
Round 3, #67. Tay Cody, CB
Round 4, #112. Carlos Polk, LB
Round 5, #132. Elliot Silvers, OT
Round 5, #139. Zeke Moreno, LB
Round 7, #201. Brandon Gorin, OT
Round 7, #244. Robert Carswell, DB

So in both cases (our 2010 draft and Chargers' 2001 draft), a RB was taken in the top 10. Also, in the later rounds two LB's were chosen and two OT's were chosen. Overall, fairly similar drafts, with a couple differences.

Another thing to note is that the Chargers did not draft a single DL from 2001-2003.

What can we make of this? Since this post is fairly haphazard so far, here's some numbers to put a little order back into the post:
1) Three positions that the Chargers focused on while Nix was there were DB's, LB's, and OT's, in that order regarding priority. One thing that I am unsure of is if the Chargers ever transitioned from a 4-3 to 3-4 during those 8 years, which may have cause the high number of LB's to be drafted.
2) Very few DL were chosen, but when they were, DE's got very high priority.
3) When they (the Chargers with Nix) got a chance to draft a QB, they did so. They managed to get two quality, franchise guys - Rivers (from trading Manning) and Brees. Three of the four QB's chosen by the Chargers in that time span were selected in the first three rounds.
4) DB's had a high priority, especially CB's.
5) While a lot of OT's were chosen, only two were selected higher than the 5th round (Courtney Van Buren and Marcus McNeill).
6) It seems the majority of San Diego's picks in the top 2-3 rounds worked out pretty well - Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Nick Hardwick, Eric Weddle, Antoine Cason, Igor Olshansky, Luis Castillo, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Drayton Florence, Ben Leber, etc.
7) 2008 was the only draft where the Chargers didn't select at least one LB.

What does this mean for 2011's draft?
1) Based on this, I'd expect Peterson or Dareus to be the first round pick (in that order). DE's and CB's both seem to have high priority.
2) I'd expect a DE to be drafted within the first three rounds. Olshansky and Castillo were both drafted high within a year of each other. I think the DL is something of a priority for the Bills, and I suspect it was for the Chargers then too.
3) I seriously doubt any RB's will be drafted (:phew:)
4) I'd expect 2+ OL to be selected.
5) Even if Peterson is not the first round pick, I have little doubt we'll get 1-2 DB's somewhere in this draft.
6) At least one LB will be taken, probably in the middle rounds (3-5)
7) I believe they'll take a QB in the first 3 rounds.


As I mentioned in the disclaimer, none of these are hard and fast rules. These are primarily my expectations for the 2011 draft based on 1) the Chargers' drafts with Nix on board, and 2) our 2010 draft with Nix at the helm.

What do you guys think about this? Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?

Well, I may be disappointed, but that list backs up my belief about CB's not being difference makers and not worth a top 5 pick. Picking a CB that high is stupid and rarely is a good thing...sorry, it would be just another stupid move by this franchise.

[psubills62]

Well, I may be disappointed, but that list backs up my belief about CB's not being difference makers and not worth a top 5 pick. Picking a CB that high is stupid and rarely is a good thing...sorry, it would be just another stupid move by this franchise.

I'm not trying to argue about who would be a good or bad pick, I'm just saying Nix's history indicates a priority on CB's. Nix himself may be looking back on that list right now and saying "Man, drafting a CB really would be a dumb idea."

[better days]

I agree with zone, PSU nice work. When the Chargers did draft CB's however, I think they already had a pretty good DL & LB's Also aside from Jammer, they were all chosen near the end of the 1st rnd.

[madness]

I definitely see the pattern... BPA.

[justasportsfan]

I definitely see the pattern... BPA.

I was wondering if the players he drafted were bpa's at that time.

[Nighthawk]

I'm not trying to argue about who would be a good or bad pick, I'm just saying Nix's history indicates a priority on CB's. Nix himself may be looking back on that list right now and saying "Man, drafting a CB really would be a dumb idea."

I know, I just hope that this organization finally starts doing things right and taking the BPA at a position that doesn't justify the pick, is not doing the right thing. We've got lots of time to discuss how they'll f**k it up...AGAIN!

[psubills62]

I was wondering if the players he drafted were bpa's at that time.

Good question, wish I had the answer.

[TacklingDummy]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to?

[Nighthawk]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to?

Exactly...the Spiller pick last year has me worried for this draft.

[better days]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to?

I think the firing of Shotty was the biggest mistake that franchise made. No telling how many times they could have gone to the Super Bowl if they had not done so.

[psubills62]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to?

Sorry, but this has very little to do with this thread. There's nothing in here about whether or not the Chargers' draft history is the correct way of doing things. It's just about seeing what we may be able to expect from the draft, not whether it's right or wrong.

[EDS]

DISCLAIMERS: 1) I don't pretend that Buddy Nix was directly responsible for every pick here, 2) this list is purely a representation of the drafts during his time at San Diego, 3) I'm also not guaranteeing Nix will follow the same pattern that these drafts did, 4) conclusions from this "analysis" are in no way universal, as every draft is different, team needs are different, etc.

The only purpose of this thread is to show people how Nix may draft in the future based on how the Chargers' drafts went with him as a significant figure in the war room.

That being said, here's the first round picks by the Chargers from 2001-2008 (Nix's tenure there):

2001: RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5 overall)
2002: CB Quentin Jammer (#5 overall)
2003: CB Sammy Davis (#30 overall)
2004: QB Eli Manning (#1 overall)
2005: OLB Shawne Merriman (#12 overall), DE Luis Castillo (#28 overall)
2006: CB Antonio Cromartie (#19 overall)
2007: WR Craig Davis (#30 overall)
2008: CB Antoine Cason (#27 overall)

I should also note that they drafted QB Drew Brees #32 overall in 2001 (first pick of the 2nd round).

As you can see, all the people who don't want Patrick Peterson may very well end up being disappointed. The Chargers chose CB's in the first round four times out of nine possible picks. They also focused almost solely on skill positions in the first round, with the 2005 draft being the only exception.

A further positional breakdown of all the Chargers' picks between 2001 and 2008:
QB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot is 82nd overall
RB: 4 chosen, average overall draft slot of 114th overall
WR: 5 chosen, average of 91st overall
TE: 3 chosen, average of 134th overall
OT: 10 chosen, average of 169th overall
OG/C: 5 chosen, average of 150th overall
DE: 3 chosen, average of 65th overall
DT: 2 chosen, average of 214th overall
LB: 9 chosen, average of 121st overall
DB: 11 chosen, average of 83rd overall

Also, DB Paul Oliver was chosen in the supplemental draft (4th round), and was not included in this analysis. One punter, one kicker, and two FB's were chosen as well, but were not included.

Before discussing any overall conclusions, I think it would be helpful to compare the Chargers' first draft with Nix to our first draft with him as GM. Here are the picks from the Chargers' 2001 draft:
Round 1, #5. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB
Round 2, #32. Drew Brees, QB
Round 3, #67. Tay Cody, CB
Round 4, #112. Carlos Polk, LB
Round 5, #132. Elliot Silvers, OT
Round 5, #139. Zeke Moreno, LB
Round 7, #201. Brandon Gorin, OT
Round 7, #244. Robert Carswell, DB

So in both cases (our 2010 draft and Chargers' 2001 draft), a RB was taken in the top 10. Also, in the later rounds two LB's were chosen and two OT's were chosen. Overall, fairly similar drafts, with a couple differences.

Another thing to note is that the Chargers did not draft a single DL from 2001-2003.

What can we make of this? Since this post is fairly haphazard so far, here's some numbers to put a little order back into the post:
1) Three positions that the Chargers focused on while Nix was there were DB's, LB's, and OT's, in that order regarding priority. One thing that I am unsure of is if the Chargers ever transitioned from a 4-3 to 3-4 during those 8 years, which may have cause the high number of LB's to be drafted.
2) Very few DL were chosen, but when they were, DE's got very high priority.
3) When they (the Chargers with Nix) got a chance to draft a QB, they did so. They managed to get two quality, franchise guys - Rivers (from trading Manning) and Brees. Three of the four QB's chosen by the Chargers in that time span were selected in the first three rounds.
4) DB's had a high priority, especially CB's.
5) While a lot of OT's were chosen, only two were selected higher than the 5th round (Courtney Van Buren and Marcus McNeill).
6) It seems the majority of San Diego's picks in the top 2-3 rounds worked out pretty well - Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill, Nick Hardwick, Eric Weddle, Antoine Cason, Igor Olshansky, Luis Castillo, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Drayton Florence, Ben Leber, etc.
7) 2008 was the only draft where the Chargers didn't select at least one LB.

What does this mean for 2011's draft?
1) Based on this, I'd expect Peterson or Dareus to be the first round pick (in that order). DE's and CB's both seem to have high priority.
2) I'd expect a DE to be drafted within the first three rounds. Olshansky and Castillo were both drafted high within a year of each other. I think the DL is something of a priority for the Bills, and I suspect it was for the Chargers then too.
3) I seriously doubt any RB's will be drafted (:phew:)
4) I'd expect 2+ OL to be selected.
5) Even if Peterson is not the first round pick, I have little doubt we'll get 1-2 DB's somewhere in this draft.
6) At least one LB will be taken, probably in the middle rounds (3-5)
7) I believe they'll take a QB in the first 3 rounds.


As I mentioned in the disclaimer, none of these are hard and fast rules. These are primarily my expectations for the 2011 draft based on 1) the Chargers' drafts with Nix on board, and 2) our 2010 draft with Nix at the helm.

What do you guys think about this? Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?

The reason they did not draft many DT is because they already had one of the best, Jamal Williams, on their roster. They also brought in Marcellus Wiley in free agency that first year.

They definitely used free agency to supplement that defense with guys like Wiley and Donnie Edwards.

[madness]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to?
:spit: Yes, I much prefer the Bills past failures over the Chargers obvious failure to reach the SB.


San Diego Chargers
Nix left Buffalo with John Butler and A. J. Smith after the 2000 season. He was initially the Director of Pro Player Personnel (2000–2001), but after Butler died, Smith was promoted to General Manager, and Nix to Assistant General Manager.

Nix's job with the Chargers was to oversee both pro and college scouting and to be one of the main decision makers in each NFL Draft. Nix was a major reason the Chargers turned around from a losing football team to a rebuilt, winning team. In 2004, three players Nix drafted were selected to the 2005 Pro Bowl. In 2005, six players Nix drafted were selected to the 2006 Pro Bowl. In 2006, eleven players Nix drafted were selected to the 2007 Pro Bowl. In 2007, eight players Nix drafted were selected to the 2008 Pro Bowl.

The Chargers won four out of the last five AFC West titles with Nix as Assistant GM and Director of Player Personnel, in charge of college scouting and instrumental to the decision making process of their NFL drafts.

[psubills62]

The reason they did not draft many DT is because they already had one of the best, Jamal Williams, on their roster. They also brought in Marcellus Wiley in free agency that first year.

They definitely used free agency to supplement that defense with guys like Wiley and Donnie Edwards.

You're absolutely right.

According to Williams' wikipedia page, the Chargers switched to a 3-4 in 2004. That's the year they drafted Olshansky, then they took Castillo in the next year's draft.

[methos4ever]

Id be interested to see how their FA corresponds with that analysis. Im trying to remember if they brought in much OL or DL help.
Ask and ye shall receive:

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/4/25/1442814/a-glimpse-of-the-future-from-san


The logical starting point is to outline what the Chargers had when Nix first got there, and then see who they added in the first year, and trends over the Chargers' ascent.

2000 Chargers
Most notably, the Chargers were coming off a 1-15 season in 2000. As kaisertown wrote about last month, there wasn't much going for them on their offensive line, with Vaughn Parker their best lineman. The Ryan Leaf fiasco was in its death throws, and Jim Harbaugh was no longer with the team. Terrell Fletcher led the team with 384 yards rushing. Tight end Freddie Jones led the team with 71 receptions, and Curtis Conway added 53 catches.

The defense played a 4-3 under head coach Mike Riley, with Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau getting little help outside DTs John Parrella and Jamal Williams, and FS Mike Dumas. Safe to say that the 2000 Chargers make the 2009 Bills look great in comparison.

2001 Additions
The 2000 off-season brought in some help via free agency. A group of Buffalo cast-offs were brought in to change the culture of losing and add talent: Doug Flutie, Marcellus Wiley, John Holecek, and Sam Rogers. Flutie started the entire season, going 5-11, and Wiley added 13 sacks. The team also added WR Tim Dwight, who caught 25 balls and returned a punt for a touchdown. San Diego also traded for OT Roman Oben.

The 2001 draft added LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, two linebackers, two offensive linemen and two defensive backs. Only Tomlinson and Brees played roles in the Chargers' future.

2002-2005 Drafts: The Rebuilding Period
Over the next four drafts, the most critical to the Chargers' success, San Diego focused on the defense. They added two first round and two second round defensive backs, two defensive ends and two outside linebackers early. Eli Manning, Vincent Jackson, Nick Hardwick, Tonoi Fonoti, Courtney Van Buren, and Nate Kaeding were also added inside the first three rounds. (Manning was also obviously traded for Philip Rivers.)

Some other notes: San Diego focused six later round picks on offensive linemen; they went after mostly taller receivers and tight ends that could also run well; tall 5-technique ends were a priority, as they drafted four in the time frame. And they added three running backs besides Tomlinson. No nose tackles were drafted.



http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2010/2/15/1310721/dont-expect-o-line-to-be-huge

That article covers the FA aspect as well (focusing in particular on the O-line)

[YardRat]

I'm on Petersons bandwagon as much as anybody maybe, and have said I wouldn't be too upset if that was the pick, but I have to admit I would also be somewhat disappointed if we stood at #3 and passed up on Fairley, Bowers or Dareus. That disappointment would be tempered, of course, if we managed to pick up some quality free agents for the d-line and LBers.

Regardless of draft strategies or apparent tendencies, etc, the most important factoid is that during Nix's involvement with the Chargers they went from sem-trainwreck to the playoffs and even Super Bowl favorites at times.

BTW...Nice work psu, and thanks for the time and effort.

[Extremebillsfan247]

"Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?" No it doesn't. San Diego was a different team with different needs and coaching philosophies. Then you have to consider whether he had influence on those draft decisions and how much etc. The results here will be different than they were in San Diego. There is no A.J. Smith here.

[ServoBillieves]

Let's just hope we get a Nix's 04-06 draft for the next 3 years... and then damn, we have a competitor.

I still get physically sick knowing we took... John McCargo, Ashton Youboty, and, man he was late but I still have to throw him in since his shirt is in my closet... Ko Simpson instead of Marcus McNeill in 06.

[paranoid]

How many Super Bowls have the Chargers been to? Were there a bunch of "Woo-hoos! We're going to the Super Bowl!" phrases in the OP that I missed, or was the guy just trying to give us something to think about in terms of expectations for the inevitably disappointing draft we can expect in April?

[EDS]

"Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?" No it doesn't. San Diego was a different team with different needs and coaching philosophies. Then you have to consider whether he had influence on those draft decisions and how much etc. The results here will be different than they were in San Diego. There is no A.J. Smith here.

Let us also not forgot that A.J. Smith was part of the regime in Buffalo that, beginning in 1990, used four first round picks in five years on defensive backs (Henry Jones, James Williams, Jeff Burris and Thomas Smith). Henry Jones was the only one of those guys who had a meaningful career in Buffalo.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Let us also not forgot that A.J. Smith was part of the regime in Buffalo that, beginning in 1990, used four first round picks in five years on defensive backs (Henry Jones, James Williams, Jeff Burris and Thomas Smith). Henry Jones was the only one of those guys who had a meaningful career in Buffalo.Right, which is all the more reason to assume that Nix now being a GM will have a slightly different approach when it comes to who he drafts and who he doesn't.

[better days]

"Does this change your expectations in any way for the 2011 draft?" No it doesn't. San Diego was a different team with different needs and coaching philosophies. Then you have to consider whether he had influence on those draft decisions and how much etc. The results here will be different than they were in San Diego. There is no A.J. Smith here.

Thank God there is no A.J. Smith here. That S.D. team has gone down hill since Butler died.

[psubills62]

Alright guys, I put this together way back in January. I have been planning on bumping it to see how wrong or right I might be. Any further thoughts on it now?

[psubills62]

What does this mean for 2011's draft?
1) Based on this, I'd expect Peterson or Dareus to be the first round pick (in that order). DE's and CB's both seem to have high priority.
2) I'd expect a DE to be drafted within the first three rounds. Olshansky and Castillo were both drafted high within a year of each other. I think the DL is something of a priority for the Bills, and I suspect it was for the Chargers then too.
3) I seriously doubt any RB's will be drafted (:phew:)
4) I'd expect 2+ OL to be selected.
5) Even if Peterson is not the first round pick, I have little doubt we'll get 1-2 DB's somewhere in this draft.
6) At least one LB will be taken, probably in the middle rounds (3-5)
7) I believe they'll take a QB in the first 3 rounds.
Well...it appears some of my predictions were off, but not by a whole lot, at least so far. Not bad for predictions in January.

As I mentioned in another thread, I still see ~2 OL being taken in the late rounds. I also expect a LB and a DB to be selected on Saturday. That's 4 of 6 picks. If I had to guess the other two, I'd say QB and either a WR or TE.

I would not expect to see a DL or RB for the rest of the draft. Just my opinion, and obviously some of the really late picks are crapshoots. Hopefully we can continue to glean some more insight in the future out of Nix's draft history.