Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

[Mahdi]

Ok lots of talk these days on drafting our first pick to address need vs picking the best player available....

I think a lot gets lost in this discussion when you factor in busts and potential busts, so for the sake of argument let's throw the whole bust possibility out.

Let us pretend there is no possibility of bust for ANY pick in the whole draft. So basically the grade the player is given prior to the draft is the potential he meets in the NFL.


Ie. Luck would have been a 99, Peterson a 98, Fairley is a 96, AJ Green is a 94 and Dareus is a 93 based on general consensus.


So my question to the "draft according to need people" is this, if you knew for sure that Peterson was going to be a sure fire PBer and Dareus was going to be a notable starter who would you choose?

If you could draft Peterson and then a player in the second round on the DL that was graded out to be a day 1 starter would you rather have that or Dareus (notable starter) and someone in the second round who was a day one starter?


Basically, would you not rather take the player at 3 that you believed had a higher chance of becoming a NFL star?

[buffalobillsfan95]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

I would take bpa available because if u know there a Payton manning quality player u gotta take them no matter what position

[DraftBoy]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

Taking bust out of the argument is basically catering the entire argument to make your point and thus defeating the point of even having the discussion.

[methos4ever]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

Well for the sake of this argument, I would assume that since we're drafting at 3 and 34, we'll be drafting two players that have first round grades/points. So say a 95-98 and a 89-93.

If that's the case, I'd go with the best player at both, because I don't know if I'm ever going to be in a position to get that many good players in succession again. I'd also have an edge toward need as in real life if the scores are close. So if there's a 98 for Peterson and then a player at 34 is between two 90s that are either bpa or need, I'd go need.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

Obviously you'd like to draft a future star but there's no way of knowing who will be a star. If it were that easy people would have drafted Brady with the first pick.

[Philagape]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

When you have an opportunity to draft top three, you should get a future Hall-of-Famer. A special player who is above the need to plug a hole; rather, someone to build around. Holes can be plugged at the beginning of the second and third rounds.

[EDS]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

Ok lots of talk these days on drafting our first pick to address need vs picking the best player available....

I think a lot gets lost in this discussion when you factor in busts and potential busts, so for the sake of argument let's throw the whole bust possibility out.

Let us pretend there is no possibility of bust for ANY pick in the whole draft. So basically the grade the player is given prior to the draft is the potential he meets in the NFL.


Ie. Luck would have been a 99, Peterson a 98, Fairley is a 96, AJ Green is a 94 and Dareus is a 93 based on general consensus.


So my question to the "draft according to need people" is this, if you knew for sure that Peterson was going to be a sure fire PBer and Dareus was going to be a notable starter who would you choose?

If you could draft Peterson and then a player in the second round on the DL that was graded out to be a day 1 starter would you rather have that or Dareus (notable starter) and someone in the second round who was a day one starter?


Basically, would you not rather take the player at 3 that you believed had a higher chance of becoming a NFL star?

Obviously anyone would pick a guy that is definitely going to be a PBer over a guy who is only going to be a notable starter. Problem is, you never know which you are going to get, even if one has a slightly higher rating.

At the end of the day, it is about building the best team.

Peterson is a great athlete but it is not entirely clear he is better in coverage than Amukamara. The Bills were awful this past season yet none of their draft picks were day one starters, so I don't think we can make any clear determinations on whether the #3 pick or even a second round pick is going to be a day one starter.

Again, I would feel more comfortable taking a corner early if I trusted Buddy Nix's drafting skills, but that is not the case.

[finsrclowns]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

When you have an opportunity to draft top three, you should get a future Hall-of-Famer.

I'm not going to do it but anyone that cares to could make that statement look awfully silly. The precentage of guys that are headed to the hall from top 3 picks isn't all that great. And based on the last decade the odds that the Bills would pick a hall of famer seem close to zero.

[Philagape]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

I'm not going to do it but anyone that cares to could make that statement look awfully silly. The precentage of guys that are headed to the hall from top 3 picks isn't all that great. And based on the last decade the odds that the Bills would pick a hall of famer seem close to zero.

Based on the last decade, the Bills shouldn't draft at all. Every approach has failed.

The Bills have won the Super Bowl in 0 percent of their seasons, so by your reasoning they should just fold.

What's silly is letting anything this team has done before determine what it should do now.
What point are you trying to make? That they shouldn't try to get an elite, potential HOFer?

[Prov401]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

I'm rooting for Peterson at 3.

[OpIv37]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

[Philagape]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

Do you count CB as one of those needs? If not, it's a pretty big issue if Peterson is sitting there at 3

[YardRat]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

I'll bite.

Even though I'm a fan of Peterson, and wouldn't be terribly upset if the Bills took him, under the scenario presented I would skip the CB and go with the d-lineman with the highest grade, in this case Fairley, especially considering they are so close.

Run and stop the run, baby. Winning starts in the trenches.

Now, if the disparity between the CB and closest DE were 5 points or more, I'd go with Peterson.

[X-Era]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

I'll bite.

Even though I'm a fan of Peterson, and wouldn't be terribly upset if the Bills took him, under the scenario presented I would skip the CB and go with the d-lineman with the highest grade, in this case Fairley, especially considering they are so close.

Run and stop the run, baby. Winning starts in the trenches.

Now, if the disparity between the CB and closest DE were 5 points or more, I'd go with Peterson.

I think the crux of this discussion is whether you should pass up a higher ranked player just because it isn't an immediate need.

Theoretically you probably shouldn't. But in many circumstances it may not make sense to take that player. Like if you have atop 5, young QB and your drafting #1 overall and Luck is there for example.

[Prov401]

Re: Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

Out of all positions and players that are worth a top 5 pick, I think Peterson would definitely qualify as being the BPA at his position worthy of a top 5 pick.