Need vs BPA... Let's Examine...

[Mahdi]

Ok lots of talk these days on drafting our first pick to address need vs picking the best player available....

I think a lot gets lost in this discussion when you factor in busts and potential busts, so for the sake of argument let's throw the whole bust possibility out.

Let us pretend there is no possibility of bust for ANY pick in the whole draft. So basically the grade the player is given prior to the draft is the potential he meets in the NFL.


Ie. Luck would have been a 99, Peterson a 98, Fairley is a 96, AJ Green is a 94 and Dareus is a 93 based on general consensus.


So my question to the "draft according to need people" is this, if you knew for sure that Peterson was going to be a sure fire PBer and Dareus was going to be a notable starter who would you choose?

If you could draft Peterson and then a player in the second round on the DL that was graded out to be a day 1 starter would you rather have that or Dareus (notable starter) and someone in the second round who was a day one starter?


Basically, would you not rather take the player at 3 that you believed had a higher chance of becoming a NFL star?

[buffalobillsfan95]

I would take bpa available because if u know there a Payton manning quality player u gotta take them no matter what position

[DraftBoy]

Taking bust out of the argument is basically catering the entire argument to make your point and thus defeating the point of even having the discussion.

[methos4ever]

Well for the sake of this argument, I would assume that since we're drafting at 3 and 34, we'll be drafting two players that have first round grades/points. So say a 95-98 and a 89-93.

If that's the case, I'd go with the best player at both, because I don't know if I'm ever going to be in a position to get that many good players in succession again. I'd also have an edge toward need as in real life if the scores are close. So if there's a 98 for Peterson and then a player at 34 is between two 90s that are either bpa or need, I'd go need.

[justasportsfan]

Obviously you'd like to draft a future star but there's no way of knowing who will be a star. If it were that easy people would have drafted Brady with the first pick.

[Philagape]

When you have an opportunity to draft top three, you should get a future Hall-of-Famer. A special player who is above the need to plug a hole; rather, someone to build around. Holes can be plugged at the beginning of the second and third rounds.

[EDS]

Ok lots of talk these days on drafting our first pick to address need vs picking the best player available....

I think a lot gets lost in this discussion when you factor in busts and potential busts, so for the sake of argument let's throw the whole bust possibility out.

Let us pretend there is no possibility of bust for ANY pick in the whole draft. So basically the grade the player is given prior to the draft is the potential he meets in the NFL.


Ie. Luck would have been a 99, Peterson a 98, Fairley is a 96, AJ Green is a 94 and Dareus is a 93 based on general consensus.


So my question to the "draft according to need people" is this, if you knew for sure that Peterson was going to be a sure fire PBer and Dareus was going to be a notable starter who would you choose?

If you could draft Peterson and then a player in the second round on the DL that was graded out to be a day 1 starter would you rather have that or Dareus (notable starter) and someone in the second round who was a day one starter?


Basically, would you not rather take the player at 3 that you believed had a higher chance of becoming a NFL star?

Obviously anyone would pick a guy that is definitely going to be a PBer over a guy who is only going to be a notable starter. Problem is, you never know which you are going to get, even if one has a slightly higher rating.

At the end of the day, it is about building the best team.

Peterson is a great athlete but it is not entirely clear he is better in coverage than Amukamara. The Bills were awful this past season yet none of their draft picks were day one starters, so I don't think we can make any clear determinations on whether the #3 pick or even a second round pick is going to be a day one starter.

Again, I would feel more comfortable taking a corner early if I trusted Buddy Nix's drafting skills, but that is not the case.

[finsrclowns]

When you have an opportunity to draft top three, you should get a future Hall-of-Famer.


I'm not going to do it but anyone that cares to could make that statement look awfully silly. The precentage of guys that are headed to the hall from top 3 picks isn't all that great. And based on the last decade the odds that the Bills would pick a hall of famer seem close to zero.

[Philagape]

I'm not going to do it but anyone that cares to could make that statement look awfully silly. The precentage of guys that are headed to the hall from top 3 picks isn't all that great. And based on the last decade the odds that the Bills would pick a hall of famer seem close to zero.

Based on the last decade, the Bills shouldn't draft at all. Every approach has failed.

The Bills have won the Super Bowl in 0 percent of their seasons, so by your reasoning they should just fold.

What's silly is letting anything this team has done before determine what it should do now.
What point are you trying to make? That they shouldn't try to get an elite, potential HOFer?

[Prov401]

I'm rooting for Peterson at 3.

[OpIv37]

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

[Philagape]

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

Do you count CB as one of those needs? If not, it's a pretty big issue if Peterson is sitting there at 3

[YardRat]

I'll bite.

Even though I'm a fan of Peterson, and wouldn't be terribly upset if the Bills took him, under the scenario presented I would skip the CB and go with the d-lineman with the highest grade, in this case Fairley, especially considering they are so close.

Run and stop the run, baby. Winning starts in the trenches.

Now, if the disparity between the CB and closest DE were 5 points or more, I'd go with Peterson.

[X-Era]

I'll bite.

Even though I'm a fan of Peterson, and wouldn't be terribly upset if the Bills took him, under the scenario presented I would skip the CB and go with the d-lineman with the highest grade, in this case Fairley, especially considering they are so close.

Run and stop the run, baby. Winning starts in the trenches.

Now, if the disparity between the CB and closest DE were 5 points or more, I'd go with Peterson.I think the crux of this discussion is whether you should pass up a higher ranked player just because it isn't an immediate need.

Theoretically you probably shouldn't. But in many circumstances it may not make sense to take that player. Like if you have atop 5, young QB and your drafting #1 overall and Luck is there for example.

[Prov401]

is this even really a debate? When the team is as bad as the Bills, there are at least 6 major needs. I can't believe there isn't someone who qualifies as BPA for any of those positions.

Out of all positions and players that are worth a top 5 pick, I think Peterson would definitely qualify as being the BPA at his position worthy of a top 5 pick.

[YardRat]

I think the crux of this discussion is whether you should pass up a higher ranked player just because it isn't an immediate need.

Theoretically you probably shouldn't. But in many circumstances it may not make sense to take that player. Like if you have atop 5, young QB and your drafting #1 overall and Luck is there for example.

I think I answered the question...

So my question to the "draft according to need people" is this, if you knew for sure that Peterson was going to be a sure fire PBer and Dareus was going to be a notable starter who would you choose?

[Prov401]

I'll bite.

Even though I'm a fan of Peterson, and wouldn't be terribly upset if the Bills took him, under the scenario presented I would skip the CB and go with the d-lineman with the highest grade, in this case Fairley, especially considering they are so close.

Run and stop the run, baby. Winning starts in the trenches.

Now, if the disparity between the CB and closest DE were 5 points or more, I'd go with Peterson.

I agree 100% that winning starts in the trenches, and would def. take Fairley over Peterson, however Fairley doesn't look like he will drop to us. At that point, I think Peterson is the BPA.

[Beebe's Kid]

The Bills need the BPA. If that makes somebody else expendable...draft day trade!!

[YardRat]

I agree 100% that winning starts in the trenches, and would def. take Fairley over Peterson, however Fairley doesn't look like he will drop to us. At that point, I think Peterson is the BPA.

I don't think he'll be there either, but the scenario wasn't phrased in a manner that indicated position in the draft, or any of the players mentioned not being available.

[Beebe's Kid]

I agree 100% that winning starts in the trenches, and would def. take Fairley over Peterson, however Fairley doesn't look like he will drop to us. At that point, I think Peterson is the BPA.
There is a lot of time between now and the draft. There will be a shake up in the "rankings" by then.

[The Jokeman]

Take Robert Quinn, he might very well fit both roles.

[OpIv37]

Do you count CB as one of those needs? If not, it's a pretty big issue if Peterson is sitting there at 3

I'd say CB is a need but not a priority.

McGee is done. Florence is good but not great. McKelvin looks like another average player that we took in the first round cuz we suck at drafting.

[madness]

When you are in the top 3 need shouldn't even be in the discussion.

The San Diego Chargers originally held the rights to the overall first pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. With Manning being the most highly coveted player in the draft, it appeared that the Chargers' intentions were to draft Manning first overall. However, Manning (echoed by his father Archie) stated publicly that he would refuse to play for the Chargers if drafted by them. The Chargers selected him with the first pick overall nonetheless as the team had a deal in place with the New York Giants where the Giants would draft and then trade Philip Rivers and draft picks (used to pick Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding) to the Chargers for Manning.

[TigerJ]

Wouldn't it be nice to have a crystal ball when evaluating players. Given the conditions you set down, a pro bowler is enough better than a "notable starter" that you have to take the pro bowler. Drafting, unfortunately is not so nice and neat. Need is always going to be a factor that you look at. You not only need to have your player graded according to ability, attitude, college production and all the other factors that you deem important, when deciding between two players, one of whom fills a more pressing need, you have to decide how to weight the need. How much of a difference in your grade is your need worth? The answer most of the time is "not very much, but more than zero."

[Bangarang]

Take Robert Quinn, he might very well fit both roles.

Yeah....no.

[Mahdi]

Taking bust out of the argument is basically catering the entire argument to make your point and thus defeating the point of even having the discussion.
No, the point is, factoring in bust is useless because you never know who will bust and who will fulfill. All you can do is pick the best player.

[better days]

Out of all positions and players that are worth a top 5 pick, I think Peterson would definitely qualify as being the BPA at his position worthy of a top 5 pick.

Well, lets look at the 2007 draft. Darrelle Revis was chosen with the 14th pick of the draft. Two picks after Marshawn Lynch, but that is another story. Revis was considered the best player at his position & was the 1st CB taken in the draft.

Why does everyone think Revis lasted until the 14th pick? Anyone? I think is is because CB's are not valued by NFL teams as much as Linemen, both offensive & defensive.

[Mahdi]

Well, lets look at the 2007 draft. Darrelle Revis was chosen with the 14th pick of the draft. Two picks after Marshawn Lynch, but that is another story. Revis was considered the best player at his position & was the 1st CB taken in the draft.

Why does everyone think Revis lasted until the 14th pick? Anyone? I think is is because CB's are not valued by NFL teams as much as Linemen, both offensive & defensive.
No, Revis lasted because he was part of a very weak CB class that year and he was the best of them. No one really thought Revis was going to be this good.

[better days]

No, Revis lasted because he was part of a very weak CB class that year and he was the best of them. No one really thought Revis was going to be this good.

No he was the BPA at his position. Show me an article that said he would not be good. I'm not buying what you are selling. The New York Jets in fact traded up in order to draft Revis. Why would the Jets trade up if they did not think he was going to be very good?

Or how about Champ Bailey? He was not drafted until the 7th pick of the draft in 1999.

[DraftBoy]

No, the point is, factoring in bust is useless because you never know who will bust and who will fulfill. All you can do is pick the best player.

Not what I was really getting at but its not important.

[Mahdi]

No he was the BPA at his position. Show me an article that said he would not be good. I'm not buying what you are selling. The New York Jets in fact traded up in order to draft Revis. Why would the Jets trade up if they did not think he was going to be very good?

Or how about Champ Bailey? He was not drafted until the 7th pick of the draft in 1999.
I never said he would not be good. I said he was not expected to be THIS good. The Jets had a horrible set of CBs were desperate for a CB that year. I remember thinking that they might have actually reached.

Revis was definitely the best CB available but it was a weak class. While this may be the strongest CB class in as long as I can remember.

Peterson, Amakamura, Ras-I Dowling, Harris, Aaron Williams... All can go in the first round with two in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15.

[better days]

I never said he would not be good. I said he was not expected to be THIS good. The Jets had a horrible set of CBs were desperate for a CB that year. I remember thinking that they might have actually reached.

Revis was definitely the best CB available but it was a weak class. While this may be the strongest CB class in as long as I can remember.

Peterson, Amakamura, Ras-I Dowling, Harris, Aaron Williams... All can go in the first round with two in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15.

Well, how about Champ Bailey? When he was drafted there was no question about his ability, there was no question he was going to be great & he was also multifaceted, yet he lasted until the 7th pick.

This was also supposed to be a strong QB class this year.

[Mahdi]

Well, how about Champ Bailey? When he was drafted there was no question about his ability, there was no question he was going to be great & he was also multifaceted, yet he lasted until the 7th pick.

This was also supposed to be a strong QB class this year.
How bout Champ Bailey?

What does that have to do with Peterson. Peterson is a much higher rated prospect than Bailey IMO.

I think the better comparison is Charles Woodson who went 4th overall the year before. Both were/are incredible athletes coming out, better than any other football players available. Both had unusual size to go with their ability and both are return specialists which displayed their body control and football sense. And if it wasn't for Manning and Leaf Woodson would have gone even higher.

[TedMock]

Well, how about Champ Bailey? When he was drafted there was no question about his ability, there was no question he was going to be great & he was also multifaceted, yet he lasted until the 7th pick.

This was also supposed to be a strong QB class this year.

"He lasted until 7th?????" You make it sound like he dropped way down the board. 1999 was the year of the bad QB, but there were several teams desperately in need of that franchise guy. Should we take a QB over Peterson? Tim Couch went 1st, McNabb 2nd, Akili Smith 3rd. I bet Cleveland and Cincy wish they took Champ. The next 3 were Edge James, Ricky Williams and Torry Holt. It's not like these three could not have been rated higher than Bailey coming out. He was still a top-10 player. Maybe the Bills have him top-3 on their board, maybe not. Maybe 1 or more of the DL are ranked ahead of him. It really depends on what his rating is.

I don't think it's that the DL is more or less important than the CB. In fact, I think one can make the other better and we've seen great defenses built both ways. We'll see Pittsburgh and the Jets this week. Pittsburgh comes at you hard and fast with the front seven. The Jets took forever to get to the QB last week, but because of great coverage downfield they got their licks in.

I am a huge fan of Dareus and really would love if he were our pick. He's insanely quick, disruptive, unselfish and extremely versatile. I'm also a huge fan of Peterson (as a SS and CB) and would love if he were our pick. He's a big DB at 220-225 and hits like a truck in the box, but also excels in coverage and in the return game with 4.4 speed. I would only hate it if we took a guy rated several points lower just to fit a "bigger" need. DL and DB are both needs. Now, if it's close, then yes, I say take the DL...if it's close.

[Bmax]

The Bills must address the front seven with one of the first two picks...Odds are that they will be successful with the number three pick if they take Dareus, Fairley or Bowers.. Sure Courtney Brown and Big Daddy Wilkinson and others failed.. But so did Charles Rodgers and others..So take a Big man...or trade down to 6 or lower and pick up a second and get someone like Miller or Quinn. If we are talking defense that this would be the best bet.. If you get an extra second you could trade that pick to m or a 3rd rd to move into the bottom of RD1 to grab Mallett or Locker if they fall..

No QB is worth takin in rd 2 or 3 other than Mallet otr Locker if they fall...We will be waiting again to next season to get our QB of the future..unless we deal a second for Kevin Kolb...


Bmax