Bill Parcells QB Formula

[The King]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment




Bill Parcells is famous in NFL Draft circles for his formula, as it were, for drafting quarterbacks. Per the Parcells criteria, quarterbacks must be senior college graduates with three years of starting experience and at least 23 wins.


I think a big factor is intellegints. The athleticism and arm strength sure are important but I think the smarter QB's are able to develop and become effective regardless of system. I think of guys like Fitzy, Ryan, Tebow, Brady and Hasslebeck. When being scouted a lot people had issues with these guys... but they all have a mind for the position and have been able to fit in regardless of the circumstances.

At this point I would sacrifice raw talent for a guy who has a brain for football. Whoever that may be in this years class.

[BidsJr]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment



I think a big factor is intellegints.



LOL

[THATHURMANATOR]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment



I think a big factor is intellegints.
HILARIOUS.

[chernobylwraiths]

OMG!

[The King]

:bravo:

[Night Train]

Bucks

[Bangarang]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment



I think a big factor is intellegints.

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/15/simpsons_nelson_haha2.jpg

[The King]

While I was trying to be funny, I was also trying to induce some kind of dialogue on this topic.

[Dr. Lecter]

Christian Ponder meets all of the criteria except wins - he has 22.

[ddaryl]

Yeah the intelligints mis-spelling jumped out on me too.

Cerebral QB's IMO do have a higher chance of success IMO. If yuo can read D's and make proper adjustments your chances of success increases.

If you have a great arm but can't read D's then your JP Losman.

If you have an average arm, but can't read D's your Trent Edwards

[chernobylwraiths]

While I was trying to be funny, I was also trying to induce some kind of dialogue on this topic.

There is some merit to it IMO. A guy who has started that many college games has experience. Winning that many games means he likely has won a high percentage of his games which is also a plus in that he must know how to win.

Does anyone know what QBs Parcells has drafted? Not just coached but actually drafted when he had some power.

[The King]

Christian Ponder meets all of the criteria except wins - he has 22.

He seems to be in an offense that sputtered.

[The King]

There is some merit to it IMO. A guy who has started that many college games has experience. Winning that many games means he likely has won a high percentage of his games which is also a plus in that he must know how to win.

Does anyone know what QBs Parcells has drafted? Not just coached but actually drafted when he had some power.

Bledsoe and Pennington were two I know he directly wanted... I know he was against Henne

[Ginger Vitis]

I know he was against Henne

I have heard this as well.. I wonder if Parcells let Jeff Ireland make all the decisions for the Phins on draft day..

This so called formula makes me feel a little better about Christian Ponder.. I think his senioer season was marred by injury and would like to get Ponder in the 3rd Round

[RandolphDuke]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment



I think of guys like Fitzy, Ryan, Tebow, Brady and Hasslebeck.

I would add Doug Flutie, Brian St Pierre, Glenn Foley, and Tim Hasselbeck to this list.

[The King]

I would add Doug Flutie, Brian St Pierre, Glenn Foley, and Tim Hasselbeck to this list.

Yea you like BC guys?

[RandolphDuke]

Yea you like BC guys?
I'm just going by all the scientific journals which state BC grads have the highest IQ's, hottest wives, and biggest dongs. That's not my BC diploma talking. That's science, gents.

[The King]

I'm just going by all the scientific journals which state BC grads have the highest IQ's, hottest wives, and biggest dongs. That's not my BC diploma talking. That's science, gents.

I think BC has like a 96% grad rate on their football team. Second to only ND.

[RandolphDuke]

I think BC has like a 96% grad rate on their football team. Second to only ND.
BC consistently finishes higher than notre dame in graduation rate, but this year ND topped us in "sexual assaults perpetrated by football players that ultimately resulted in the victim's tragic suicide which was subsequently covered up by a shamefully corrupt administration."

But this thread is about qb's. Parcells was right: go with someone who knows how to win. I would add that it's good to go with someone who can take a loss and bounce back. Further, understand that the nfl is different and that you arent going to win every game (Vince Young, Ryan Leaf).

[Mr. Pink]

So according to this Parcells formula...

Where are Ken Dorsey, Joe Germaine and Gino Toretta now?

[Ingtar33]

Drew Bledsoe was a junior...

anyway, the Parcells "formula" is a lot of hooky nonsense, the big deal for me back when it was my job, was number of starts. I needed to see a min of 24 starts before i seriously considered a kid for the draft; ideally 3 full seasons, but 24 or more was great... frankly, the ideal number was around 37 college starts... 3 full seasons... but you do see some success with some 2 year starters

if you look at the success numbers of qbs drafted in round one, there is a cutoff around 24 starts... those drafted in round 1 with less were universally disasters... while those with more, generally stood a fair chance to be good (the chances improving the closer you got to 37 starts).

its not a predictor of success, rather one of failure. QBs with less then 24 starts in college drafted in round 1 generally suck in the pros... period.

~again... this is not a predictor of success, there are plenty of 1st round QBs with 24+ starts in college who suck. this is a predictor of failure. the number of successful 1st round QBs with LESS then 24 starts in college... well i don't think there is a single one in the league at the moment...

if you stick to that rule you'll skip a lot of flash in the pan flavor of the month type busts.


the only other stat that i really cared about was completion percentage... they needed at least a 60% in college. Again... this is not a predictor of success, rather one of failure. those who failed to get a 60% completion percentage generally sucked in the pros.

[YardRat]

Parcells isn't exactly known for his prowess with QB's, is he?

[X-Era]

I thought this article was interesting.


http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment



I think a big factor is intellegints. The athleticism and arm strength sure are important but I think the smarter QB's are able to develop and become effective regardless of system. I think of guys like Fitzy, Ryan, Tebow, Brady and Hasslebeck. When being scouted a lot people had issues with these guys... but they all have a mind for the position and have been able to fit in regardless of the circumstances.

At this point I would sacrifice raw talent for a guy who has a brain for football. Whoever that may be in this years class.Parcells drafted Chuck Clements, Kent Graham, Chad Pennington, and Chad Henne as a head coach or GM.

Should we really listen to Parcells on how to draft QB's?

[X-Era]

There is some merit to it IMO. A guy who has started that many college games has experience. Winning that many games means he likely has won a high percentage of his games which is also a plus in that he must know how to win.

Does anyone know what QBs Parcells has drafted? Not just coached but actually drafted when he had some power.Just looked up the list.

[Extremebillsfan247]

The problem with the formula is that its like everything else, a crap shoot. Here is a list as an example of Senior QBs from the past and present that posted at least 20 wins in the College ranks. Although there are a lot of great names on this list, not all played 3 seasons as starters, example: Tom Brady. Also, not all of them panned out at the pro level either.

Note: the numbers to the left are the amount of victories each player had in College.

42 David Greene 2001-04 Georgia
39 Peyton Manning 1994-97 Tennessee
38 Ken Dorsey 1999-02 Miami (Fla)
37 Dan Marino 1979-82 Pittsburgh
37 Matt Leinart 2002-05 Southern California
37 Ty Detmer 1988-91 BYU
36 John Rauch 1945-48 Georgia
35 Chad Pennington 1997-99 Marshall
35 Chris Leak 2003-06 Florida
35 Chuck Ealey 1969-71 Toledo
35 Chuck Long 1982-85 Iowa
35 Donovan McNabb 1995-98 Syracuse
35 Eric Crouch 1998-01 Nebraska
35 Jay Barker 1991-94 Alabama
34 Casey Clausen 2000-03 Tennessee
34 Lance McIlhenny 1980-83 Southern Methodist
34 Philip Rivers 2000-03 North Carolina St
33 Chad Henne 2004-07 Michigan
33 Corey Pullig 1992-95 Texas A&M
33 Mark Herrmann 1977-80 Purdue
33 Tommie Frazier 1992-95 Nebraska
32 Chris Weinke 1997-00 Florida St
32 Danny White 1971-73 Arizona State
32 Danny Wuerffel 1993-96 Florida
32 Paul Pinegar 2002-05 Fresno St
32 Rodney Williams 1985-88 Clemson
32 Steve Davis 1973-75 Oklahoma
31 *Patrick White 2005-08 West Virginia
31 Timmy Chang 2000-04 Hawaii
30 *Colt McCoy 2006-08 Texas
30 Brooks Bollinger 2000-03 Wisconsin
30 Cade McNown 1995-98 UCLA
30 Doug Flutie 1981-84 Boston College
30 Jamelle Holieway 1985-88 Oklahoma
30 Vince Young 2003-05
29 Sammy Baugh
28 Turner Gill
27 Jason White, Kordell Stewart
25 Brad Smith, Matt Ryan, Troy Smith
24 Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ell Roberson, Robbie Bosco
23 Charlie Ward, Steve Spurrier, Troy Aikman
22 Archie Manning, Bob Griese, Jim Kelly, Jim Plunkett, Kerry Collins, Tee Martin
20 Fran Tarkenton, James Street, Joe Theismann, Tom Brady

[YardRat]

Parcells drafted Chuck Clements, Kent Graham, Chad Pennington, and Chad Henne as a head coach or GM.

Should we really listen to Parcells on how to draft QB's?

Bledsoe, also.

[we are]

Parcells drafted Chuck Clements, Kent Graham, Chad Pennington, and Chad Henne as a head coach or GM.

Should we really listen to Parcells on how to draft QB's?

and passed on matt ryan

[X-Era]

Bledsoe, also.Yes, he hit on Bledsoe but they were also picking #1 overall that year.

[Ingtar33]

i'll expand upon my previous point...

these are the division 1-A QBs taken from 1998-2010 in the first 2 rounds of the nfl draft; sorted by the number of starts

QBs with fewer then 25 starts in college (24 or fewer) were universal disasters... and you'll notice the number of failures or "projects" shoots up under 37 starts.

--------------37 or more starts-------------------------
kolb - 62%
rivers - 64%
quinn - 58%
campbell - 64%
mcnabb - 63%
p.manning - 63%
pennington - 64%
cutler - 57%
e.manning - 61%
beck - 63%
culpepper - 65%
mcnown - 55%
palmer - 58%
tebow - 67%
leinart - 65%
roethlisburger - 66%
stafford -57%
losman - 57%
brees - 62%
young - 64%

--------------less than 37 starts-------------------------
jackson - 54%
leftwich - 65%
grossman - 62%
russell - 63%
clausen - 64%
boller - 50%
clemens - 62%
stanton - 64%
carter - 57%
bradford - 68%
couch - 67%
freeman - 59%
rogers - 64%
alex smith - 67%

--------------less than 25 starts-------------------------
leaf - 53%
carr - 64%
sanchez - 64%
king - 61%
vick - 53%
harrington - 55%
ramsey - 57%
tuiasosopo - 57%
akili smith- 58%


Now completion percentage doesn't mean a whole lot... though those with less then 60% again generally are failures... the guys in red had both less then 37 starts and less then 60% college completion percentage... the guys bolded in black had both

[Extremebillsfan247]

i'll expand upon my previous point...

these are the division 1-A QBs taken from 1998-2010 in the first 2 rounds of the nfl draft; sorted by the number of starts

QBs with fewer then 25 starts in college (24 or fewer) were universal disasters... and you'll notice the number of failures or "projects" shoots up under 37 starts.

--------------37 or more starts-------------------------
kolb - 62%
rivers - 64%
quinn - 58%
campbell - 64%
mcnabb - 63%
p.manning - 63%
pennington - 64%
cutler - 57%
e.manning - 61%
beck - 63%
culpepper - 65%
mcnown - 55%
palmer - 58%
tebow - 67%
leinart - 65%
roethlisburger - 66%
stafford -57%
losman - 57%
brees - 62%
young - 64%

--------------less than 37 starts-------------------------
jackson - 54%
leftwich - 65%
grossman - 62%
russell - 63%
clausen - 64%
boller - 50%
clemens - 62%
stanton - 64%
carter - 57%
bradford - 68%
couch - 67%
freeman - 59%
rogers - 64%
alex smith - 67%

--------------less than 25 starts-------------------------
leaf - 53%
carr - 64%
sanchez - 64%
king - 61%
vick - 53%
harrington - 55%
ramsey - 57%
tuiasosopo - 57%
akili smith- 58%


Now completion percentage doesn't mean a whole lot... though those with less then 60% again generally are failures... the guys in red had both less then 37 starts and less then 60% college completion percentage... the guys bolded in black had both Deleted

[Tatonka]

so i guess we are drafting kellen Clemons from Boise st.

[Extremebillsfan247]

so i guess we are drafting kellen Clemons from Boise st.I would start warming up to the idea of Ponder in the 3rd round. lol From the look of things, this draft for the Bills will be defense intensive early.

[HAMMER]

I thought this article was interesting.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2011/1/20/1946076/2011-nfl-draft-is-bill-parcells-qb-formula-antiquated?ref=yahoo#add-comment

I think a big factor is intellegints. The athleticism and arm strength sure are important but I think the smarter QB's are able to develop and become effective regardless of system. I think of guys like Fitzy, Ryan, Tebow, Brady and Hasslebeck. When being scouted a lot people had issues with these guys... but they all have a mind for the position and have been able to fit in regardless of the circumstances.

At this point I would sacrifice raw talent for a guy who has a brain for football. Whoever that may be in this years class.

So with Fitzy fitting this mold to a T why do you even want to draft a QB this year?

[Ingtar33]

so i guess we are drafting kellen Clemons from Boise st.

no... i said that starts and comp % predicted failure not success.

they're negative stats


simply put i don't think any of the QBs this year are worth a 1st rounder.

anyone who takes one deserves to be burned badly.

Gabbert is a glorified Trent Edwards, Newton is probably a 3 or 4 year project, and has JaMarcus Russell written all over him, Mallet has too many issues that trouble me... and Locker shouldn't be sniffing round 1... probably not even round 2.

a bunch of question marks... one or two of those question marks will be over drafted this year... hell all 4 could go in round one. that doesn't mean any of them have any right to go round 1; or will turn out in the pros.

[Ickybaluky]

Bledsoe and Pennington were two I know he directly wanted... I know he was against Henne

Bledsoe only started 2 seasons in college (came out as a Junior) and won 13 games (4 as a Soph and 9 as a Jr). So much for the formula.

[Tatonka]

Ing, i feel like every year you say there are no qbs worth a first round pick. lol. is it just me?

[Tatonka]

and by the way.. im not giving you a hard time.. im just sayin.. i guess i wish i was hearing that we had a chance at a franchise guy..

so if no one is worth a first rounder.. is there anyone worth a pick at qb? any round?

[Crisis]

Ing, i feel like every year you say there are no qbs worth a first round pick. lol. is it just me?

i remember him raving about bradford

[Tatonka]

did he? maybe i didnt pay attention because i knew we didnt have a shot at him.

[Ingtar33]

Ing, i feel like every year you say there are no qbs worth a first round pick. lol. is it just me?


just you... i just don't get too high on many of them...

And yes... there are years, like this one, where i don't like any of them in the first round. the other years that i felt no qb was worth a 1st rounder were 2007, 2005 and 2002... (Russell, Quinn, Smith, Rogers, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey)

some years i've only thought the guys available were marginal first rounders but i still liked them in round one... and a once in the last decade i liked 2 qbs in the top 10, and 3 qbs in round one.

that was 2004 (amusingly the QB who went 1st overall that year, was the one i thought was the borderline first rounder, if you don't forget i was FURIOUS, when the bills failed to move up for the one guy who fell back almost to us that year; the only time i can remember being pissed off the bills f-ed up trading up to grab a player who fell in the draft); those three were obviously rivers, roethlisburger, and manning


And yes... i was sold on bradford last year, thought Matt Ryan was worth a round 1 pick a few years ago, disliked stafford at 1, but was alright with him in the first round (barely).... i thought he might be a bit of a bust... i liked Vince young in round 1, palmer (i did think palmer would probably be a bust... but felt he was worth a late first rounder)and leftwich in round 1, Drew Brees in round 1 (but not mike vick), chad pennington in round 1...

the only big miss in there is Aaron Rogers (though in my defense he did sit on a bench for 3 years before starting, and the packers were so underwhelmed by what they saw of him in practice they drafted 2 qbs when they dumped Favre)... i was too low on Palmer (not that he's been worth a 1st overall, but he's been good enough to not call him a bust)... too high on Leftwich... we'll see how vince young turns out but that one looks like a glaring mistake on my part... but then who knew he was a headcase?

[IAG]

Chad Henne...BP pick. No thanks on his philo.

[Buddo]

There are always exceptions to the 'rules'. Parcells 'theory' isn't a bad one, in respect of avoiding the more likely 'busts', but it doesn't necessarily get you a great QB.

I'm encouraged by the FO seemingly being prepared to draft a guy and sit him, but I'm not too impressed with the potential 'prospects', particularly in respect of the #3 pick, as I don't think for one moment, that there's a guy @ QB, worth taking that high, now that Luck has stayed in college. They all seem to have an extra question mark or two about them, that makes an early pick just too risky.

It also becomes an issue when you think in terms of contracts, and what value you will get out of paying a guy mega bucks, to warm the bench while he's still learning his trade. (The answer to that one being pretty much zero)

I also think that the Bills could do with drafting another QB somewhere, as although Levi has shown he's got an arm, he doesn't look too sharp at reading D's atm, and I was thoroughly disappointed with Brohm on the strength of his one outing. As we don't know if there will be a FA period, I think we need to draft another guy to bring on, as what we've got behind Fitz, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Too much of the media, seems to be concerned with wanting to have a QB taken by someone, in the top 10 picks, rather than focusing on whether or not they are actually worth that pick.