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Mock drafts, especially this time of year, are about as reliable as Rafael Palmeiro’s testimony at a Congressional steroids hearing . Players will rise and fall at the combine, pro days and in interviews. I’ll bet anything at least one guy among my current top 34 falls into the third round while another not listed will go in the top 15.
Honestly, I’m predominantly attracted to this draft from Buffalo’s perspective far more than other years because of Cam Newton. It’s been long said the Bills need a franchise quarterback and if Buddy Nix concludes he’s that guy, he’ll be there with the third pick. The fact he’s a Heisman Trophy winner, would create a league wide buzz and put butts in the seats at Ralph Wilson Stadium will not be lost on management, or at least Mr. Wilson himself, even if Nix could care less.
From what we’ve seen, read and heard about Newton, he could be the next Ben Roethlisberger just as easily as transforming into JaMarcuss Russell version 2.0.
Conversely, if Nix doesn’t want Newton, as many expect he won’t, there’s a plethora of gifted defenders to choose from at pick three, ranging from perceived needs to the straight-up best player available hypothesis.
Which route will Nix go? I’m as fascinated as you are. For the time being, this is how I’m rolling with my 34-pick mock draft. I stop at 34 because this is a Buffalo-based publication and frankly, I’m not concerned with who the Houston Texans tab with the 42nd pick.
I’ve limited my Bills choice down to three players at this point.
Without further ado…
1. Carolina- Nick Fairley, DT (Auburn): New Carolina coach Ron Rivera will have at least some input in this decision and I think he may prefer the safer and more athletic Patrick Peterson. Fairley is going to have some major character issues coming into the league, if he doesn’t already, but his talent level is as good as it gets in this class at a position the Panthers stink at.
2. Denver- Da’Quan Bowers, DE (Clemson): Just like Carolina, Peterson will be another possibility here, especially with Champ Bailey being an aging free agent. New coach John Fox will run a 4-3 defense and Bowers is the best at that position in this class.
3. Buffalo- Patrick Peterson, CB (LSU): You better take Nix at his word when he says he’s taken the best player available regardless of position. Could the Bills use a defensive linemen or a potential franchise quarterback at this spot more? Sure, but no one in this draft has the athleticism of Peterson, who many think can be the next Charles Woodson.
Plus, it’s foolish to think the Bills don’t have any need at cornerback. Leodis McKelvin was wildly inconsistent last year, Terrence McGee is aging and breaking down before our very eyes, and Drayton Florence commits as many penalties as he makes big plays- not to mention he’s a pending free agent (who I’d like to see brought back).
Peterson claimed this week during interviews at the Senior Bowl that he plans on running a sub-4.3/40-yard dash.
A cornerback with the third pick?!??!?? Folks, the draft is seven rounds, not one.
4. Cincinnati- A.J. Green, WR (Georgia): He’s neck-and-neck with Peterson for the “best player available” label by many. Terrell Owens won’t be back and neither will Chad OchoCinco/Johnson. Green is a special talent and perhaps this makes grumpy Carson Palmer happier.
5. Arizona- Von Miller, OLB (Texas A&M): Quarterback is a bigger need but head coach Ken Wisenhunt may not have the luxury of time to wait around for one to develop. Expect the Cardinals to target Donovan McNabb or maybe Marc Bulger in free agency. Miller’s stock is soaring up the draft board and could be the best pass rusher in the draft.
6. Cleveland- Marcel Dareus, DL (Alabama): The Browns ran a 3-4 under Eric Mangini and will probably switch to a 3-4 with Pat Shurmur. Regardless of what they run Dareus is a good fit at either.
** Note** For the record…if Peterson is off the board before the third pick I think Dareus is one of two other guys the Bills may take.
7. San Francisco- Prince Amukamara, CB (Nebraska): With Jim Harbaugh taking over the reigns as head coach, the 49ers have plenty of time to develop a young quarterback should they choose so. The problem is they’re probably the most talented team in the NFC West from top to bottom and can win now. I expect them to fill the quarterback position via free agency (Vince Young) or trade (Kevin Kolb perhaps) and target the best player available. To me that’s Amukamara, who could make an impact immediately, especially since Nate Clements looks like a fossil at this point and could soon be gone.
8. Tennessee- Blaine Gabbert, QB (Missouri): This could be a situation where owner Bud Adams insists the team takes one, even with a new coach coming on board to replace Jeff Fisher. I’m anything but sold on Gabbert being top 10 worthy despite numerous reports suggesting otherwise, but it’s inconsequential as I predict Adams’ insistence lands the top rated QB prospect here.
9. Dallas- Cameron Jordan, DE (California): The Cowboys would love to be able to go offensive tackle to better protect Tony Romo, but there’s none close to being top 10 worthy. Jordan has been unstoppable during Senior Bowl week. By the time it’s said and done, he can land in Dallas, especially if Amukamara is off the board.
10. Washington- Cam Newton, QB (Auburn): The Redskins aren’t going anywhere with the current stable of quarterbacks with or without McNabb, and Mike Shanahan wasn’t paid all that money to win a championship within two years or get fired. He’ll have the comfort of selecting Newton and take his time developing him. Newton has franchise ability but you won’t see it in the first couple of years no matter where he goes.
**Note** You may remember with the sixth pick in this mock I listed Dareus as one of two guys other than Peterson the Bills could take with the third pick. Newton, my friends, is the other one (actually I have Newton more likely to go to Buffalo than Dareus). Don’t be shocked at all if it happens. Newton’s ceiling is mountain high and Ryan Fitzpatrick played well enough to afford Chan Gailey to not rush Newton into the lineup. It comes down completely to if Nix is comfortable putting his legacy on the line with the risky boom-or-bust Newton.
11. Houston- Robert Quinn, DE (North Carolina): Quinn’s suspension this year exemplifies everything I hate about the NCAA. Had he played this year he’d probably be long gone. Wade Phillips takes over in Houston, their defense is putrid and Quinn is clearly the best player available at this point.
12. Minnesota- Aldon Smith, LB (Missouri): Quarterback obviously is their most pressing need, but the Vikings are one of three teams (Arizona, San Francisco) I envision going the veteran route to address it (Kyle Orton, anyone?) Leslie Frazier is a defense-first kind of guy and Smith could be a perfect fit, especially if Chad Greenway bolts via free agency, whenever that begins.
13. Detroit- Akeem Ayers, LB (UCLA): A solid replacement for the departing Julian Peterson, it’s either linebacker or left tackle for the Lions here. Interestingly, at this point 10 of the first 13 picks in this mock are defensive guys.
14. St. Louis- Julio Jones, WR (Alabama): The run on defense ends here. It should take St. Louis about 10 seconds or less to make this pick. Sam Bradford needs more weapons and Jones is clearly the second best receiver in this draft after Green. I’m more confident of this pick than any in the top 14.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB (Alabama): It’s highly possible both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could be gone. Quarterback would be an option if Gabbert or Newton where still here. Tony Sparano loves to run the ball and Ingram is the best in this class. He’s a big, bruising back that will fit well in the rugged AFC East.
16. Jacksonville- Ryan Kerrigan, DE (Purdue): Last year, Jags general manager sent shockwaves through mock draft circles when he took Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. The move panned out as Alualu had a great rookie season. The only way to beat the Colts in the AFC South is to pressure Peyton Manning and Kerrigan is a guy who can do just that.
17. New England (from Oakland)- Derek Sherrod, OT (Mississippi State): The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds and Bill Belichick’s job is secured. Therefore, New England can do whatever they want here. For that reason, I think quarterback Jake Locker will get a nice, long look by the organization because they’d have plenty of time to develop him, similar to what Green Bay did with Aaron Rodgers when they had Brett Favre. Ultimately I think they’ll go Sherrod with Matt Light’s future here in doubt.
18. San Diego- Cameron Heyward, DL (Ohio State): Arguably the NFL’s most disappointing team in 2010, the Chargers don’t have a lot of holes. One of them is on the defensive line and Heyward can help fix that problem.
19. New York Giants- Anthony Castonzo, OT (Boston College): The Giants need help at left tackle with William Beatty looking shaky. Castonzo could eventually develop into a top-flight tackle in this league, though it won’t happen early.
20. Tampa Bay- Adrian Clayborn, DE (Iowa): The Bucs were very close to being the league’s Cinderella story last year and if they had a better pass rush, they would’ve found themselves in the playoffs. Clayborn is the best pass rusher available. He had seven tackles for losses and 3.5 sacks with Iowa last year.
21. Kansas City- Nate Solder, OT (Colorado): Despite a solid running game, right tackle has been a major problem with the resurgent Chiefs. At this point, the first-team All-American Solder would be considered a steal.
22. Indianapolis- Stephen Paea, DT (Oregon State) : You never know what Bill Polian is going to do, which considering his splendid track record is not a bad thing. The Colts would love a left tackle here but with the top three already gone, the run-stuffing Paea makes perfect sense. The 311-pounder was a first-team All-American and while he isn’t much of a pass rusher, good luck clearing him from running lanes.
23. Philadelphia- Gabe Carimi, OT (Wisconsin): A lot of people think a cornerback next to Asante Samuel is the bigger need, but Mike Vick must be protected better. Winston Justice was awful at right tackle and eventually benched. Carimi can become his replacement.
24. New Orleans- J.J. Watt, DE (Wisconsin): He happens to be the best player available and the Saints could use help with their pass rush. Running back Mikel LeShoure is a strong possibility as well.
25. Seattle- Jake Locker, QB (Washington): Pete Carroll fell in love with Matt Hasselbeck after he beat the Saints in the playoffs, but there’s little tread left on those tires. This is the perfect spot for Locker, who can sit behind Hasselbeck for at least one full season. I’m not sold on Charlie Whitehurst one bit.
** Note** If, and this is a huge if considering Nix’s desire to accumulate, not surrender draft picks, the Bills decide to move up for a specific player, very possibly a quarterback, this could be the spot to do it. Nix dealt with Seattle this past season with the Marshawn Lynch trade, and Seattle would probably love to move back and stock up on picks.
26. Baltimore- Torrey Smith, WR (Maryland): The aging Ravens receivers let Joe Flacco down in their playoff loss at Pittsburgh. Anquan Boldin will be back but Derek Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh may not. Regardless, Smith is an explosive receiver who scored a school-record 12 touchdowns last year. He’s also a quality returner.
27. Atlanta- Brandon Harris, CB (Miami/Fla): Atlanta won’t soon forget Aaron Rodgers torching them in the postseason. Harris is the third rated corner in the draft by nearly everyone and this seems to be a good spot for him to land. He’ll end a two-year skid of no Miami players being drafted in the first round.
28. New England- Jon Baldwin, WR (Pittsburgh): With their second pick of round one the Patriots continue to surround Brady with weapons. Baldwin has some maturity issues but Belichick will keep him check. The Patriots need receivers and he’s clearly the best available late in the first round.
29. Chicago- Tyron Smith, OT (USC): Watching Jay Cutler get beat up all season, there’s little doubt what the Bears need the most help at. This would be the fifth offensive tackle off the board.
30. New York Jets- Kyle Rudolph, TE (Notre Dame): Rex Ryan will want the best player on the board and Rudolph is that guy. With Dustin Keller in tow, Mark Sanchez would have a pair of dangerous tight ends to throw to. New York saw how well a pair of tight ends threats worked for New England with rookies Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
31. Pittsburgh- Mike Pouncey, G/C (Florida): His brother Maurkice was a rookie Pro Bowl selection for the Steelers as a rookie in 2010. The Steelers would be tickled if his kid brother was still on the board. He can instantly become a starter at guard for Pittsburgh in 2011.
32. Green Bay- Allen Bailey, DE (Miami/Fla): Obviously picking last gives you insight to our projected Super Bowl winner. The Packers could lose Cullen Jenkins to a big payday in free agency following the season. Bailey would be an excellent developmental replacement.
Round Two
33. New England- Mikel LeShoure, RB (Illinois): The Patriots are always stockpiling future draft picks and I’d be hardly surprised if that didn’t continue before this pick. This would be their third selection in the first 33. If they keep the pick, they could go with the second-best running back on the board in LeShoure. He ran for 1,697 yards, rushed for 17 touchdowns and would blend in fine with BenJarvus Green and Danny Woodhead.
34. Buffalo- Martez Wilson, ILB (Illinois): The top rated inside linebacker prospect on the board, the Bills desperately need help in the middle of their linebacking unit. Even if Paul Posluszny is brought back as expected, Buffalo needs an upgrade over grizzly vets Andra Davis, Akin Ayodele or Reggie Torbor; all journeyman closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Buffalo was dead-last in the league against the run and it’s largely because they gave up chunks of yards up the middle. Wilson at 6-feet-4 and 250-pounds has stout size to be a force up the middle. The junior early entry missed most of 2009 with a herniated disk in his neck, but came back to lead his team with 112 tackles in 2010. He also had four sacks and an interception.
A warning— issues about what kind of person he is are sure to be raised in the coming months. Wilson was stabbed two years ago when he reportedly helped a friend during a fight outside a bar.
WHAT THIS MEANS
I don’t think the Bills will be interested in Ryan Mallet, even in the second round as I project he’ll still be available. If the Bills are intent on taking a potential “franchise” quarterback, they’ll grab Newton with the third pick (I don’t there’s much of a chance they’ll take Gabbert that high) or they’ll trade back into the latter half of the first if Newton slides or possibly if Nix falls in love with Locker.
Otherwise, I think it’s developmental quarterback time in the third round or later, with guys like Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton and Greg McElroy coming to mind.
I never even mentioned Gabbert, the widely regarded top quarterback prospect, as a potential Bills first round choice. I don’t think he’s a Chan Gailey type of guy.
A FEW OTHER NOTES
♦ I don’t have him sliding that far down, but if Kyle Rudolph happens to be available at pick 34, I’d be the least surprised person in the room if Buffalo grabbed him. The Bills got a first-hand look in 2010 at what effective tight ends can do to a secondary.
♦ For those wondering about Mallet, I got him going to Cincinnati exactly one pick after the Bills pass on him a second time.
♦ It’s too early in my opinion to write up a three-round mock, but for the record I currently have the Bills taking Oklahoma safety Quinton Carter in that spot.
♦ Yes, according to this current mock I have Buffalo going defense with their first three selections.
♦ It’s also too early to know exactly what picks overall the Bills will have past round three because compensatory selections need to be rewarded. Here’s what we do know: Buffalo will have the fourth pick (68th overall) of round three, the third and 25th pick (from Seattle) in round four, selection two of round five, the fourth pick of round sixth and third in round seven.
♦ Of all the players discussed, Locker is the one who can move up the most. There’s plenty of reports out there saying he’ll slip out of the first round, but I think that’s nonsense. I have him at 25 right now but would be hardly surprised if he’s a top 12 selection before this process is over.
♦ I never include trades in a mock, but I believe San Francisco, Dallas and as always, New England are prime candidates to move down the board. On the other hand, I think Houston could move up for a top defensive player while Minnesota could jump if they really love Newton or Gabbert.
Honestly, I’m predominantly attracted to this draft from Buffalo’s perspective far more than other years because of Cam Newton. It’s been long said the Bills need a franchise quarterback and if Buddy Nix concludes he’s that guy, he’ll be there with the third pick. The fact he’s a Heisman Trophy winner, would create a league wide buzz and put butts in the seats at Ralph Wilson Stadium will not be lost on management, or at least Mr. Wilson himself, even if Nix could care less.
From what we’ve seen, read and heard about Newton, he could be the next Ben Roethlisberger just as easily as transforming into JaMarcuss Russell version 2.0.
Conversely, if Nix doesn’t want Newton, as many expect he won’t, there’s a plethora of gifted defenders to choose from at pick three, ranging from perceived needs to the straight-up best player available hypothesis.
Which route will Nix go? I’m as fascinated as you are. For the time being, this is how I’m rolling with my 34-pick mock draft. I stop at 34 because this is a Buffalo-based publication and frankly, I’m not concerned with who the Houston Texans tab with the 42nd pick.
I’ve limited my Bills choice down to three players at this point.
Without further ado…
1. Carolina- Nick Fairley, DT (Auburn): New Carolina coach Ron Rivera will have at least some input in this decision and I think he may prefer the safer and more athletic Patrick Peterson. Fairley is going to have some major character issues coming into the league, if he doesn’t already, but his talent level is as good as it gets in this class at a position the Panthers stink at.
2. Denver- Da’Quan Bowers, DE (Clemson): Just like Carolina, Peterson will be another possibility here, especially with Champ Bailey being an aging free agent. New coach John Fox will run a 4-3 defense and Bowers is the best at that position in this class.
3. Buffalo- Patrick Peterson, CB (LSU): You better take Nix at his word when he says he’s taken the best player available regardless of position. Could the Bills use a defensive linemen or a potential franchise quarterback at this spot more? Sure, but no one in this draft has the athleticism of Peterson, who many think can be the next Charles Woodson.
Plus, it’s foolish to think the Bills don’t have any need at cornerback. Leodis McKelvin was wildly inconsistent last year, Terrence McGee is aging and breaking down before our very eyes, and Drayton Florence commits as many penalties as he makes big plays- not to mention he’s a pending free agent (who I’d like to see brought back).
Peterson claimed this week during interviews at the Senior Bowl that he plans on running a sub-4.3/40-yard dash.
A cornerback with the third pick?!??!?? Folks, the draft is seven rounds, not one.
4. Cincinnati- A.J. Green, WR (Georgia): He’s neck-and-neck with Peterson for the “best player available” label by many. Terrell Owens won’t be back and neither will Chad OchoCinco/Johnson. Green is a special talent and perhaps this makes grumpy Carson Palmer happier.
5. Arizona- Von Miller, OLB (Texas A&M): Quarterback is a bigger need but head coach Ken Wisenhunt may not have the luxury of time to wait around for one to develop. Expect the Cardinals to target Donovan McNabb or maybe Marc Bulger in free agency. Miller’s stock is soaring up the draft board and could be the best pass rusher in the draft.
6. Cleveland- Marcel Dareus, DL (Alabama): The Browns ran a 3-4 under Eric Mangini and will probably switch to a 3-4 with Pat Shurmur. Regardless of what they run Dareus is a good fit at either.
** Note** For the record…if Peterson is off the board before the third pick I think Dareus is one of two other guys the Bills may take.
7. San Francisco- Prince Amukamara, CB (Nebraska): With Jim Harbaugh taking over the reigns as head coach, the 49ers have plenty of time to develop a young quarterback should they choose so. The problem is they’re probably the most talented team in the NFC West from top to bottom and can win now. I expect them to fill the quarterback position via free agency (Vince Young) or trade (Kevin Kolb perhaps) and target the best player available. To me that’s Amukamara, who could make an impact immediately, especially since Nate Clements looks like a fossil at this point and could soon be gone.
8. Tennessee- Blaine Gabbert, QB (Missouri): This could be a situation where owner Bud Adams insists the team takes one, even with a new coach coming on board to replace Jeff Fisher. I’m anything but sold on Gabbert being top 10 worthy despite numerous reports suggesting otherwise, but it’s inconsequential as I predict Adams’ insistence lands the top rated QB prospect here.
9. Dallas- Cameron Jordan, DE (California): The Cowboys would love to be able to go offensive tackle to better protect Tony Romo, but there’s none close to being top 10 worthy. Jordan has been unstoppable during Senior Bowl week. By the time it’s said and done, he can land in Dallas, especially if Amukamara is off the board.
10. Washington- Cam Newton, QB (Auburn): The Redskins aren’t going anywhere with the current stable of quarterbacks with or without McNabb, and Mike Shanahan wasn’t paid all that money to win a championship within two years or get fired. He’ll have the comfort of selecting Newton and take his time developing him. Newton has franchise ability but you won’t see it in the first couple of years no matter where he goes.
**Note** You may remember with the sixth pick in this mock I listed Dareus as one of two guys other than Peterson the Bills could take with the third pick. Newton, my friends, is the other one (actually I have Newton more likely to go to Buffalo than Dareus). Don’t be shocked at all if it happens. Newton’s ceiling is mountain high and Ryan Fitzpatrick played well enough to afford Chan Gailey to not rush Newton into the lineup. It comes down completely to if Nix is comfortable putting his legacy on the line with the risky boom-or-bust Newton.
11. Houston- Robert Quinn, DE (North Carolina): Quinn’s suspension this year exemplifies everything I hate about the NCAA. Had he played this year he’d probably be long gone. Wade Phillips takes over in Houston, their defense is putrid and Quinn is clearly the best player available at this point.
12. Minnesota- Aldon Smith, LB (Missouri): Quarterback obviously is their most pressing need, but the Vikings are one of three teams (Arizona, San Francisco) I envision going the veteran route to address it (Kyle Orton, anyone?) Leslie Frazier is a defense-first kind of guy and Smith could be a perfect fit, especially if Chad Greenway bolts via free agency, whenever that begins.
13. Detroit- Akeem Ayers, LB (UCLA): A solid replacement for the departing Julian Peterson, it’s either linebacker or left tackle for the Lions here. Interestingly, at this point 10 of the first 13 picks in this mock are defensive guys.
14. St. Louis- Julio Jones, WR (Alabama): The run on defense ends here. It should take St. Louis about 10 seconds or less to make this pick. Sam Bradford needs more weapons and Jones is clearly the second best receiver in this draft after Green. I’m more confident of this pick than any in the top 14.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB (Alabama): It’s highly possible both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could be gone. Quarterback would be an option if Gabbert or Newton where still here. Tony Sparano loves to run the ball and Ingram is the best in this class. He’s a big, bruising back that will fit well in the rugged AFC East.
16. Jacksonville- Ryan Kerrigan, DE (Purdue): Last year, Jags general manager sent shockwaves through mock draft circles when he took Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. The move panned out as Alualu had a great rookie season. The only way to beat the Colts in the AFC South is to pressure Peyton Manning and Kerrigan is a guy who can do just that.
17. New England (from Oakland)- Derek Sherrod, OT (Mississippi State): The Patriots have six picks in the first three rounds and Bill Belichick’s job is secured. Therefore, New England can do whatever they want here. For that reason, I think quarterback Jake Locker will get a nice, long look by the organization because they’d have plenty of time to develop him, similar to what Green Bay did with Aaron Rodgers when they had Brett Favre. Ultimately I think they’ll go Sherrod with Matt Light’s future here in doubt.
18. San Diego- Cameron Heyward, DL (Ohio State): Arguably the NFL’s most disappointing team in 2010, the Chargers don’t have a lot of holes. One of them is on the defensive line and Heyward can help fix that problem.
19. New York Giants- Anthony Castonzo, OT (Boston College): The Giants need help at left tackle with William Beatty looking shaky. Castonzo could eventually develop into a top-flight tackle in this league, though it won’t happen early.
20. Tampa Bay- Adrian Clayborn, DE (Iowa): The Bucs were very close to being the league’s Cinderella story last year and if they had a better pass rush, they would’ve found themselves in the playoffs. Clayborn is the best pass rusher available. He had seven tackles for losses and 3.5 sacks with Iowa last year.
21. Kansas City- Nate Solder, OT (Colorado): Despite a solid running game, right tackle has been a major problem with the resurgent Chiefs. At this point, the first-team All-American Solder would be considered a steal.
22. Indianapolis- Stephen Paea, DT (Oregon State) : You never know what Bill Polian is going to do, which considering his splendid track record is not a bad thing. The Colts would love a left tackle here but with the top three already gone, the run-stuffing Paea makes perfect sense. The 311-pounder was a first-team All-American and while he isn’t much of a pass rusher, good luck clearing him from running lanes.
23. Philadelphia- Gabe Carimi, OT (Wisconsin): A lot of people think a cornerback next to Asante Samuel is the bigger need, but Mike Vick must be protected better. Winston Justice was awful at right tackle and eventually benched. Carimi can become his replacement.
24. New Orleans- J.J. Watt, DE (Wisconsin): He happens to be the best player available and the Saints could use help with their pass rush. Running back Mikel LeShoure is a strong possibility as well.
25. Seattle- Jake Locker, QB (Washington): Pete Carroll fell in love with Matt Hasselbeck after he beat the Saints in the playoffs, but there’s little tread left on those tires. This is the perfect spot for Locker, who can sit behind Hasselbeck for at least one full season. I’m not sold on Charlie Whitehurst one bit.
** Note** If, and this is a huge if considering Nix’s desire to accumulate, not surrender draft picks, the Bills decide to move up for a specific player, very possibly a quarterback, this could be the spot to do it. Nix dealt with Seattle this past season with the Marshawn Lynch trade, and Seattle would probably love to move back and stock up on picks.
26. Baltimore- Torrey Smith, WR (Maryland): The aging Ravens receivers let Joe Flacco down in their playoff loss at Pittsburgh. Anquan Boldin will be back but Derek Mason and T.J. Houshmandzadeh may not. Regardless, Smith is an explosive receiver who scored a school-record 12 touchdowns last year. He’s also a quality returner.
27. Atlanta- Brandon Harris, CB (Miami/Fla): Atlanta won’t soon forget Aaron Rodgers torching them in the postseason. Harris is the third rated corner in the draft by nearly everyone and this seems to be a good spot for him to land. He’ll end a two-year skid of no Miami players being drafted in the first round.
28. New England- Jon Baldwin, WR (Pittsburgh): With their second pick of round one the Patriots continue to surround Brady with weapons. Baldwin has some maturity issues but Belichick will keep him check. The Patriots need receivers and he’s clearly the best available late in the first round.
29. Chicago- Tyron Smith, OT (USC): Watching Jay Cutler get beat up all season, there’s little doubt what the Bears need the most help at. This would be the fifth offensive tackle off the board.
30. New York Jets- Kyle Rudolph, TE (Notre Dame): Rex Ryan will want the best player on the board and Rudolph is that guy. With Dustin Keller in tow, Mark Sanchez would have a pair of dangerous tight ends to throw to. New York saw how well a pair of tight ends threats worked for New England with rookies Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
31. Pittsburgh- Mike Pouncey, G/C (Florida): His brother Maurkice was a rookie Pro Bowl selection for the Steelers as a rookie in 2010. The Steelers would be tickled if his kid brother was still on the board. He can instantly become a starter at guard for Pittsburgh in 2011.
32. Green Bay- Allen Bailey, DE (Miami/Fla): Obviously picking last gives you insight to our projected Super Bowl winner. The Packers could lose Cullen Jenkins to a big payday in free agency following the season. Bailey would be an excellent developmental replacement.
Round Two
33. New England- Mikel LeShoure, RB (Illinois): The Patriots are always stockpiling future draft picks and I’d be hardly surprised if that didn’t continue before this pick. This would be their third selection in the first 33. If they keep the pick, they could go with the second-best running back on the board in LeShoure. He ran for 1,697 yards, rushed for 17 touchdowns and would blend in fine with BenJarvus Green and Danny Woodhead.
34. Buffalo- Martez Wilson, ILB (Illinois): The top rated inside linebacker prospect on the board, the Bills desperately need help in the middle of their linebacking unit. Even if Paul Posluszny is brought back as expected, Buffalo needs an upgrade over grizzly vets Andra Davis, Akin Ayodele or Reggie Torbor; all journeyman closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. Buffalo was dead-last in the league against the run and it’s largely because they gave up chunks of yards up the middle. Wilson at 6-feet-4 and 250-pounds has stout size to be a force up the middle. The junior early entry missed most of 2009 with a herniated disk in his neck, but came back to lead his team with 112 tackles in 2010. He also had four sacks and an interception.
A warning— issues about what kind of person he is are sure to be raised in the coming months. Wilson was stabbed two years ago when he reportedly helped a friend during a fight outside a bar.
WHAT THIS MEANS
I don’t think the Bills will be interested in Ryan Mallet, even in the second round as I project he’ll still be available. If the Bills are intent on taking a potential “franchise” quarterback, they’ll grab Newton with the third pick (I don’t there’s much of a chance they’ll take Gabbert that high) or they’ll trade back into the latter half of the first if Newton slides or possibly if Nix falls in love with Locker.
Otherwise, I think it’s developmental quarterback time in the third round or later, with guys like Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton and Greg McElroy coming to mind.
I never even mentioned Gabbert, the widely regarded top quarterback prospect, as a potential Bills first round choice. I don’t think he’s a Chan Gailey type of guy.
A FEW OTHER NOTES
♦ I don’t have him sliding that far down, but if Kyle Rudolph happens to be available at pick 34, I’d be the least surprised person in the room if Buffalo grabbed him. The Bills got a first-hand look in 2010 at what effective tight ends can do to a secondary.
♦ For those wondering about Mallet, I got him going to Cincinnati exactly one pick after the Bills pass on him a second time.
♦ It’s too early in my opinion to write up a three-round mock, but for the record I currently have the Bills taking Oklahoma safety Quinton Carter in that spot.
♦ Yes, according to this current mock I have Buffalo going defense with their first three selections.
♦ It’s also too early to know exactly what picks overall the Bills will have past round three because compensatory selections need to be rewarded. Here’s what we do know: Buffalo will have the fourth pick (68th overall) of round three, the third and 25th pick (from Seattle) in round four, selection two of round five, the fourth pick of round sixth and third in round seven.
♦ Of all the players discussed, Locker is the one who can move up the most. There’s plenty of reports out there saying he’ll slip out of the first round, but I think that’s nonsense. I have him at 25 right now but would be hardly surprised if he’s a top 12 selection before this process is over.
♦ I never include trades in a mock, but I believe San Francisco, Dallas and as always, New England are prime candidates to move down the board. On the other hand, I think Houston could move up for a top defensive player while Minnesota could jump if they really love Newton or Gabbert.
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