Forked Thread: Drafting a QB in the first round

[OpIv37]

Forked from: Interesting fact about QB's drafted by round since Brady (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showpost.php?postid=3411225)


After Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round in the 2000 draft, how many QB's drafted after that, and outside of the 1st round, made the playoffs as a starter?

Answer: 3

Drew Brees, the 32 pick, which is a 1st round pick now.
David Garrard, picked 108 overall in the 4th, went to the playoffs as a starter in the 2007 season.
Matt Cassel went this year for KC.

So in the 10 years since Brady was drafted in the 6th round, only 3 QB's have been drafted outside of the 1st round and have taken the team to the playoffs as the starter.

Out of 98 QB picks outside of round 1 since 2000, only 3 have done it.

* Starter- started greater than 8 regular season games in that year.

Edit----- Include Tony Romo who was undrafted in 2003- also made he playoffs which makes it 4% unless we want to add all the undrafted QB's since 2000 to the mix that haven't made the playoffs.

Some of you apparently don't understand the difference between correlation and causality. Statistics- numbers like this- prove there is a relationship between QB's drafted in the first round and making the playoffs. However, that doesn't prove that drafting a QB in the first round causes teams to make the playoffs.

Need proof?
Buffalo drafted JP Losman in the first round.
Cleveland drafted Brady Quinn in the first round.
Eli Manning was the #1 overall draft pick and he did win a SB for the Giants, but this year he was sitting at home when the playoffs began.

Most likely, the reason that teams with first round QB's make it to the playoffs is because the FO's that selected them are good at drafting and did their homework first, not just on the QB but on all their draft picks.

In addition to that, Buffalo's need for a first-round caliber QB doesn't mean there is one worthy of our pick. Remember when we reached for Donte Whitner because we needed a S? Remember when we traded back into the first round to reach for John McCargo because we needed a DT? Remember when we traded back into the first round and reached for JP Losman because we needed a QB?

So, what are we going to do? Pick Blaine Gabbert, a guy that no one even mentioned until January (ie, well after the college football season ended)? Pick Jake Locker, whom people are only discussing because Andrew Luck didn't declare? Christian Ponder? Please.

Yes, the Bills need a QB. We also have several other positions that are in much more desperate shape than QB, which means we have the luxury (if you can call it that) of considering both need and BPA with the #3 pick. But forcing a QB at #3 in this draft is just stupid. It's a good way to set this franchise back another 3 or 4 years.

[Bangarang]

Cam Newton here we come.

[OpIv37]

Cam Newton here we come.

Vince Young II. The guy's a headcase- no thanks.

[djjimkelly]

we are going D

take it to the bank!!!

[Bangarang]

Vince Young II. The guy's a headcase- no thanks.

Why can't he be Josh Freeman II? Newton isn't on the same level of being a headcase as Young.

[OpIv37]

Why can't he be Josh Freeman II? Newton isn't on the same level of being a headcase as Young.

You're right- he's worse.

[Bangarang]

You're right- he's worse.

I wasn't aware that Newton threatened to commit suicide and got into altercations with his coaching staff.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Why can't he be Josh Freeman II? Newton isn't on the same level of being a headcase as Young.
Exactly what about him leads you to believe Newton will be a manic depressive like Young? Not saying he will be good or great even.

[Prov401]

Newton is going to be a good QB in this league.

But he isn't worth the pick at 3. Bowers, Dareus, or Peterson will be the pick IMO.

[Bangarang]

Exactly what about him leads you to believe Newton will be a manic depressive like Young? Not saying he will be good or great even.

I'm not saying he'll be anything like Young. The opposite in fact.

[OpIv37]

Exactly what about him leads you to believe Newton will be a manic depressive like Young? Not saying he will be good or great even.

The guy stole a laptop.

The guy got caught cheating on academics THREE TIMES.

The guy requested money in exchange for his athletic services (ok, well his father did, but he knew about it).

Clearly, he thinks the rules don't apply to him. If you want to trust a guy like that to learn a system and stay within its boundaries, you're just asking for trouble. He may not be bipolar like VY but he'll be just as uncoachable.

[Philagape]

A guy who cheats on his exams makes me think he's the next Billy Joe Hobert

[Beebe's Kid]

The guy stole a laptop.

The guy got caught cheating on academics THREE TIMES.

The guy requested money in exchange for his athletic services (ok, well his father did, but he knew about it).

Clearly, he thinks the rules don't apply to him. If you want to trust a guy like that to learn a system and stay within its boundaries, you're just asking for trouble. He may not be bipolar like VY but he'll be just as uncoachable.

How do you know this? It has been stated that he didn't know about it. That could be bull****, but you don't know it's bull****.

The argument cannot be filled with a bunch of fabricated information, passed off as fact, and hold any merit.

Also...Cam does not have to be compared, exclusively, to other black QB's. He and Vince Young are two completely different people. They do not have to be compared, in fact it distorts the debate.

If you don't think Cam Newton will be good in the NFL, that's fine. It's an opinion, and you can have those. Your opinion becomes invalid if you make **** up, and make piss poor parallels between players, simply because they are both black QB's.

[Bangarang]

The guy stole a laptop.

The guy got caught cheating on academics THREE TIMES>

The guy requested money in exchange for his athletic services (ok, well his father did, but he knew about it).

Clearly, he thinks the rules don't apply to him. If you want to trust a guy like that to learn a system and stay within its boundaries, you're just asking for trouble. He may not be bipolar like VY but he'll be just as uncoachable.

Supposedly, he purchased a stolen laptop. You, nor I, know the truth to that story so you don't have to twist it around to support your argument.

He cheated and plagiarized. He was a moron. Doesn't mean he can't be successful in the NFL.

All these blemishes happened during his time at Florida. There's no reports of him doing anything stupid at Blinn College. Nor are there any reports that he did anything stupid at Auburn besides the pay for play scandal, which was never really tied to Cam anyway.

So aside from immature and stupid instances at Florida, his teammates and coaching staff say he's a hard working, humble individual. There's nothing that points to him being uncoachable.

So far, all you're doing is regurgitating the same stuff that people who blindly hate Newton keep repeating. Do you think that these student athletes don't cheat? I'll let you in on a secret, most of these players don't even go to class. Cam was just caught doing it.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Supposedly, he purchased a stolen laptop. You, nor I, know the truth to that story so you don't have to twist it around to support your argument.

He cheated and plagiarized. He was a moron. Doesn't mean he can't be successful in the NFL.

All these blemishes happened during his time at Florida. There's no reports of him doing anything stupid at Blinn College. Nor are there any reports that he did anything stupid at Auburn besides the pay for play scandal, which was never really tied to Cam anyway.

So aside from immature and stupid instances at Florida, his teammates and coaching staff say he's a hard working, humble individual. There's nothing that points to him being uncoachable.

So far, all you're doing is regurgitating the same stuff that people who blindly hate Newton keep repeating. Do you think that these student athletes don't cheat? I'll let you in on a secret, most of these players don't even go to class. Cam was just caught doing it.
Op do you have any answers for this?

[THATHURMANATOR]

How do you know this? It has been stated that he didn't know about it. That could be bull****, but you don't know it's bull****.

The argument cannot be filled with a bunch of fabricated information, passed off as fact, and hold any merit.

Also...Cam does not have to be compared, exclusively, to other black QB's. He and Vince Young are two completely different people. They do not have to be compared, in fact it distorts the debate.

If you don't think Cam Newton will be good in the NFL, that's fine. It's an opinion, and you can have those. Your opinion becomes invalid if you make **** up, and make piss poor parallels between players, simply because they are both black QB's.
Or this?

[TacklingDummy]

Op, who should the Bills draft? They need your approval.

[OpIv37]

Op do you have any answers for this?
Really? You guys are going to buy the "i didnt know it was stolen" and the "I didn't know my dad was trying to get paid for my work" lines?

Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

[OpIv37]

Op, who should the Bills draft? They need your approval.
If they'd have asked for my approval in the past, we'd have Orakpo and we wouldn't have Whitner.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Really? You guys are going to buy the "i didnt know it was stolen" and the "I didn't know my dad was trying to get paid for my work" lines?

Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?
Might as well since you continue to compare him to VY, even though there aren't really any similarities between the two other than they are both black.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?
Yes because we will never win it all without a Franchise QB.

[OpIv37]

Might as well since you continue to compare him to VY, even though there aren't really any similarities between the two other than they are both black.
They're both uncoachable. That's the similarity.

[THATHURMANATOR]

They're both uncoachable. That's the similarity.
Never have heard anyone say Newton was uncoachable. Where have you?

[djjimkelly]

If they'd have asked for my approval in the past, we'd have Orakpo and we wouldn't have Whitner.


and we would have had baluga last year and a solid RT for the next 10 years

[OpIv37]

Yes because we will never win it all without a Franchise QB.
Then you better start scouting high school seniors and college freshmen now, because if we draft Newton now, we will be drafting another QB in the top 5 in 3-4 years.

[djjimkelly]

newton is not gonna be a bill

ill guarantee it

not buddy nix style no chance in hell its gonna happen

[Bangarang]

Really? You guys are going to buy the "i didnt know it was stolen" and the "I didn't know my dad was trying to get paid for my work" lines?

Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

Nobody here knows the whole truth. You're conveniently pretending like you do to support your side of the argument.

[OpIv37]

Never have heard anyone say Newton was uncoachable. Where have you?
The guy cheats at academics rather than study. Then he went to a jr college where he was the best athlete on the field by far. You think he's going to bother to learn a playbook?

[OpIv37]

Nobody here knows the whole truth. You're conveniently pretending like you do to support your side of the argument.

Let me repeat: you just stated that you don't know the whole truth. Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

If you are wrong, then you just spent millions of dollars and the opportunity to draft a better player on a headcase. The smart move is finding a talented player with fewer character questions.

[justasportsfan]

They're both uncoachable. That's the similarity.

I know Vince Young isn't but although I am not high on Newton I've never heard that he isn't when it comes to football.

[Bangarang]

The guy cheats at academics rather than study. Then he went to a jr college where he was the best athlete on the field by far. You think he's going to bother to learn a playbook?

Not only are you ignoring everyone calling you out on your super weak arguments, but you're grasping at straws to try and make some sort of a valid point.

Are you just going to speculate the entire time?

[trapezeus]

newton has a lot of red flags at this point. we aren't simply commenting on one issue with him.

Off the field:
- cheating
- father's scandal on pay scam

On field
- Jr.
- runs a lot
- one read system
- 1 successful year.

His on field play alone screams Maybin. He's doing it for one year. Had he not had his off the field issues, he'd be best served learning a little more. instead, he has to come out because the NCAA will kill him. The NCAA will let you punk off school, but they'll be damned if you are making money and they aren't.

So now, you draft this kid who will have to learn on your dime instead of on teh school's dime for an additional year. I don't know.

I see a kid who has been athletically the best all his life, never getting caught with shady deals (not one, but several allegeded situations), and could have close to $30MM thrown his way to not have to play immediately. IF he has typically relied on his talent alone, he may be prove hard to get to commit to putting in some hard hours with the playbook.

If the bills think they can get around this and he wows them, fine. But from what i've read, it seems like a huge risk for a team that desperately needs a day 1 starter on D to be taking.

[Bangarang]

Let me repeat: you just stated that you don't know the whole truth. Is that a risk you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

If you are wrong, then you just spent millions of dollars and the opportunity to draft a better player on a headcase. The smart move is finding a talented player with fewer character questions.

Stop contradicting yourself. You already bashed our inability to draft quality players before, now you're saying that we shouldn't draft Newton because we'd miss out on drafting a better player.

Make up your mind. Do you or do you not have confidence in management to make the correct choices with our draft picks?

[THATHURMANATOR]

The guy cheats at academics rather than study. Then he went to a jr college where he was the best athlete on the field by far. You think he's going to bother to learn a playbook?
Um I don't know. Did he not know the plays at Auburn?

You chastise us for making assumptions yet you make ones that are more broad..

[OpIv37]

Not only are you ignoring everyone calling you out on your super weak arguments, but you're grasping at straws to try and make some sort of a valid point.

Are you just going to speculate the entire time?
See, this is what you dont get: whether or not my argument is weaknor is a straw man argument is irrelevant. You are trying to make it about me rather than address the fact that you are advocating using the #3 draft pick on a guy with questionable character.

Just like I don't know for sure that he was involved in the laptop or "pay to play" incidents, you don't know for sure that he wasn't. And we do know that he was involved in the academic cheating incidents.

So, I repeat: are you willing to risk the #3 draft pick on someone who has, at best, questionable character?

[OpIv37]

Um I don't know. Did he not know the plays at Auburn?

You chastise us for making assumptions yet you make ones that are more broad..
Again, is that a chance you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

No draft pick is a slam dunk, but you're talking about taking the riskiest guy at the least predictable position. If you guys are so blinded by the need for a QB that you can't see this, then I feel sorry for you.

[Bangarang]

See, this is what you dont get: whether or not my argument is weaknor is a straw man argument is irrelevant. You are trying to make it about me rather than address the fact that you are advocating using the #3 draft pick on a guy with questionable character.

Just like I don't know for sure that he was involved in the laptop or "pay to play" incidents, you don't know for sure that he wasn't. And we do know that he was involved in the academic cheating incidents.

So, I repeat: are you willing to risk the #3 draft pick on someone who has, at best, questionable character?

If that player at #3 turns into a great NFL player and helps win us games then people can question his character all they want. So yeah, I'd be fine with it.

[EDS]

Stop contradicting yourself. You already bashed our inability to draft quality players before, now you're saying that we shouldn't draft Newton because we'd miss out on drafting a better player.

Make up your mind. Do you or do you not have confidence in management to make the correct choices with our draft picks?

I am not Op, but I do not have confidence in the Bills management to make the correct choices.

Are you really questioning whether Newton is a risky pick at #3 overall?

[Prov401]

I can care less about the laptop and cheating issues he had at Florida. I guarantee you many first round picks have cheated in school at one point or another. Cam got caught, big deal. He made mistakes early on, and purchased a stolen laptop. He was immature, and he got punished for it. Some people make me laugh. Mike Vick can do the time and get second chances in the eye's of many, but Cam Newton buys a laptop that he may or may not have known was stolen, and cheats on a test, and he is labeled as some scumbag who is not coach-able. Oh and let's compare him mostly to Vince Young just because he's black, and nothing more.

He carries himself well in interviews, and seems like a humbled kid. I think he is going to wow many people in the next coming weeks, and to be honest, I don't think the Bills will have a shot to draft him, as I think Carolina will end up taking him #1 overall.

[Beebe's Kid]

Again, is that a chance you are willing to take with the #3 overall draft pick?

No draft pick is a slam dunk, but you're talking about taking the riskiest guy at the least predictable position. If you guys are so blinded by the need for a QB that you can't see this, then I feel sorry for you.

Don't feel sorry for me, brother.

Would I like to have a QB with Newtons size/skills that I know could play in the NFL? Who wouldn't?

I don't know if he can or not. I am not even saying you are wrong. My main point was that you are passing off assumptions as facts, in order to strengthen your case.

There are a lot of red flags when it comes to Newton, but you also should be able to admit that sometimes people that have gone through some difficult times, as a result of paying consequences are not always damned to repeat.

The offenses that Newton made were minor offenses. Granted they may be indicative of some serious character flaws, but they also may be situations that he was able to take away valuable lessons.

It is not like he has shown that he has the ability to kill with his bare hands for pleasure.

I, necessarily don't need this guy to be a Bill...I am one of the "thick" ones that thinks that we could put something together with Fitz. I just don't think the argument needs to be peppered with opinions and speculation that is being sold as fact.

[OpIv37]

I can care less about the laptop and cheating issues he had at Florida. I guarantee you many first round picks have cheated in school at one point or another. Cam got caught, big deal. He made mistakes early on, and purchased a stolen laptop. He was immature, and he got punished for it. Some people make me laugh. Mike Vick can do the time and get second chances in the eye's of many, but Cam Newton buys a laptop that he may or may not have known was stolen, and cheats on a test, and he is labeled as some scumbag who is not coach-able. Oh and let's compare him mostly to Vince Young just because he's black, and nothing more.

He carries himself well in interviews, and seems like a humbled kid. I think he is going to wow many people in the next coming weeks, and to be honest, I don't think the Bills will have a shot to draft him, as I think Carolina will end up taking him #1 overall.
For the last time, the comparison to Young has to do with being uncoachable, not race. If I wanted to compare him to a failed black QB to make a point, I would have used Jamarcus Russell.

And yes, Michael Vick got a 2nd chance, but it didn't cost the Eagles the #3 overall draft pick to give him one. I'm not opposed to giving people 2nd chances, but I am opposed to using the #3 overall draft pick on someone who has to prove they don't have character issues.

[OpIv37]

And btw, the charges against Newton in the laptop case were dropped because he voluntarily entered a court-approved pre-trial intervention program.

While this still isn't proof of anything, I find it highly unlikely that an innocent person would turn down the opportunity to prove their innocence and voluntarily submit themselves to court orders.

[TacklingDummy]

If they'd have asked for my approval in the past, we'd have Orakpo and we wouldn't have Whitner.
Hindsight, what about this coming draft? So we can get it on record.

[Prov401]

For the last time, the comparison to Young has to do with being uncoachable, not race. If I wanted to compare him to a failed black QB to make a point, I would have used Jamarcus Russell.

And yes, Michael Vick got a 2nd chance, but it didn't cost the Eagles the #3 overall draft pick to give him one. I'm not opposed to giving people 2nd chances, but I am opposed to using the #3 overall draft pick on someone who has to prove they don't have character issues.

I never said you implied your comparison was because of race. I didn't even quote you on anything. Most people run to the VY comparison because of race, because Cam can run, because he won the heisman, and the bowl game etc. But they are two different players, and I fail to see how Cam Newton is not uncoachable... explain that please.

And btw, I don't want us drafting Cam with our 3rd pick. I'm on the Fitz bandwagon for 2011 and I want the Bills going D with the 3rd pick. I also see Carolina taking a chance on Cam with their first pick.

[OpIv37]

Hindsight, what about this coming draft? So we can get it on record.
Hindsight my ass. I said I wanted Orakpo before that draft many times and there are posts on here to prove it.

[better days]

Why can't he be Josh Freeman II? Newton isn't on the same level of being a headcase as Young.

When the Bucs drafted Freeman, Morris the Bucs HC had been a Coach in Kansas & knew Freeman. He knew about Freemans work ethic, leadership, & other intangibles Josh has & knew they were great.

Could Newton be as good as Freeman? Possibily, but he could also be a Headcase like Young or a Lazy Ass like Russell. He is a much greater gamble than Freeman was for the Bucs.

[ddaryl]

Newton has plenty of red flags.
Academic cheating, stolen laptop, medlding father etc...

then there is the fact he has little college experience, and I can not include Blinn in his experience as a whole.

My money says he will score low on the wonderlic.



If we are going to take a QB Gabbert is the pick at #3

[THATHURMANATOR]

Newton has plenty of red flags.
Academic cheating, stolen laptop, medlding father etc...

then there is the fact he has little college experience, and I can not include Blinn in his experience as a whole.

My money says he will score low on the wonderlic.



If we are going to take a QB Gabbert is the pick at #3
Fine by me!

[TacklingDummy]

Hindsight my ass. I said I wanted Orakpo before that draft many times and there are posts on here to prove it.
Still waiting for this years selection.

[X-Era]

And btw, the charges against Newton in the laptop case were dropped because he voluntarily entered a court-approved pre-trial intervention program.

While this still isn't proof of anything, I find it highly unlikely that an innocent person would turn down the opportunity to prove their innocence and voluntarily submit themselves to court orders.Why? If he claims innocence and still loses, he's guilty and a liar. But if he accepts a intervention, innocent or not, he can show responsibility and maturity and teams can potentially chalk it up to a mistake that he was willing to own up to.

I guess I'm saying that I could see that taking the pre-trial intervention was more about how he could be viewed going forward than whether he was innocent or guilty.

[justasportsfan]

Hindsight my ass. I said I wanted Orakpo before that draft many times and there are posts on here to prove it.
we'd would have drafted Davis whom you wanted at 9 last year who blows. :whistle:

[Beebe's Kid]

Why? If he claims innocence and still loses, he's guilty and a liar. But if he accepts a intervention, innocent or not, he can show responsibility and maturity and teams can potentially chalk it up to a mistake that he was willing to own up to.

I guess I'm saying that I could see that taking the pre-trial intervention was more about how he could be viewed going forward than whether he was innocent or guilty.

This may be very true, but truth isn't what we are concerned with. Assume the worst and accept it as fact. Hold everybody to some impossible standard, then you can always piss and moan that you were let down...

Big Ben is known as a rapist, even though all of the follow up investigation in that case shows that the girl engaged in intercourse, but that it was not forced. That is not nearly as important as the initial headline.

The same thing happened with Lynch and the $20 from the cop's wife. It turned out that she gave him her phone number on the $20, but nobody cared about that.

Newton stole, he took money, blah blah blah. What does the truth matter??

[X-Era]

Some of you apparently don't understand the difference between correlation and causality. Statistics- numbers like this- prove there is a relationship between QB's drafted in the first round and making the playoffs. However, that doesn't prove that drafting a QB in the first round causes teams to make the playoffs.
Two things:

1) No other single factor can be shown to cause teams to make the playoffs, other than wins of course. I think we all should see this as a total lump sum scenario where many factors can go together to give a likelihood for the playoffs.

2) The reverse is also true that getting a QB from any other round also does not cause a team to make the playoffs.

The end result is simply that you are more likely to go to the playoffs with a 1st round QB than with any other version of QB... and its by a factor of ten in the past 10 years.


Most likely, the reason that teams with first round QB's make it to the playoffs is because the FO's that selected them are good at drafting and did their homework first, not just on the QB but on all their draft picks.

Totally agree, again, the lump sum scenario.


In addition to that, Buffalo's need for a first-round caliber QB doesn't mean there is one worthy of our pick. Remember when we reached for Donte Whitner because we needed a S? Remember when we traded back into the first round to reach for John McCargo because we needed a DT? Remember when we traded back into the first round and reached for JP Losman because we needed a QB?

So, what are we going to do? Pick Blaine Gabbert, a guy that no one even mentioned until January (ie, well after the college football season ended)? Pick Jake Locker, whom people are only discussing because Andrew Luck didn't declare? Christian Ponder? Please. So if no one said he was worthy before January, but now pretty much everyone says he's worthy of a top ten pick, which version was right? This assumes people who follow the draft can't change their rankings, which just plain isn't reality. Or are we simply selectively choosing when a player was ranked, and where to fit our personal preference? I've said it over and over, the Bills will be making the choice. If they make that choice, because they thought he was worthy, I have no issue with it.


Yes, the Bills need a QB. We also have several other positions that are in much more desperate shape than QB, which means we have the luxury (if you can call it that) of considering both need and BPA with the #3 pick. But forcing a QB at #3 in this draft is just stupid. It's a good way to set this franchise back another 3 or 4 years. The team should not reach, but who decides whether it's a reach or not?

[better days]

Why? If he claims innocence and still loses, he's guilty and a liar. But if he accepts a intervention, innocent or not, he can show responsibility and maturity and teams can potentially chalk it up to a mistake that he was willing to own up to.

I guess I'm saying that I could see that taking the pre-trial intervention was more about how he could be viewed going forward than whether he was innocent or guilty.

As a Gator fan, I knew about this story when it happened. When the police came to his dorm room, Newton threw the computer out the window.

Can you tell me why an innocent person would throw a computer the police were looking for out the window?

[tcb5033]

The guy cheats at academics rather than study. Then he went to a jr college where he was the best athlete on the field by far. You think he's going to bother to learn a playbook?


Um, Aaron Rodgers also went to JuCo and as we can see, he turned out just fine. As for thinking the rules don't apply to him....it seems to work for Big Ben and most of the rest of the NFL players who break the law.

Btw, if you haven't seen the infamous stolen laptop yet, do yourself a favor and check it out....
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2010/cam-newton-stolen-laptop-pictures/

[better days]

Um, Aaron Rodgers also went to JuCo and as we can see, he turned out just fine. As for thinking the rules don't apply to him....it seems to work for Big Ben and most of the rest of the NFL players who break the law.

Btw, if you haven't seen the infamous stolen laptop yet, do yourself a favor and check it out....
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2010/cam-newton-stolen-laptop-pictures/

Quite a bit of difference going to a Jr College because nobody offers you a scholorship as Rogers did than being forced to leave a GREAT D1 School that did give you a scholorship as Newton did.

Rogers also only spent his 1st year in Jr College which would have been his freshman year at a D1 School so he did not really miss any time playing at the D1 level because he would have been on the bench as a freshman.

[OpIv37]

Um, Aaron Rodgers also went to JuCo and as we can see, he turned out just fine. As for thinking the rules don't apply to him....it seems to work for Big Ben and most of the rest of the NFL players who break the law.

Btw, if you haven't seen the infamous stolen laptop yet, do yourself a favor and check it out....
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2010/cam-newton-stolen-laptop-pictures/

Aaron Rodgers didn't have the character questions that Cam Newton had.
Aaron Rodgers got to sit behind Brett Favre for 4 years. We don't have a Brett Favre and we don't have 4 years.

You are invoking the Billszone mantra of using the exception to prove the rule and comparing two dissimilar situations.

Remember when we hired Dick Jauron and people on this board said "well Bellicheck did great in NE after failing in Cleveland?" Remember when people compared Roscoe Parrish's size to Steve Smith's? Remember when people compared Aaron Maybin's size to Dwight Freeney's? How'd those situations work out?

[OpIv37]

Two things:

1) No other single factor can be shown to cause teams to make the playoffs, other than wins of course. I think we all should see this as a total lump sum scenario where many factors can go together to give a likelihood for the playoffs.

2) The reverse is also true that getting a QB from any other round also does not cause a team to make the playoffs.

The end result is simply that you are more likely to go to the playoffs with a 1st round QB than with any other version of QB... and its by a factor of ten in the past 10 years.

There are two problems with this. The first is that you are still confusing correlation with causality. Just because picking a first round QB can be used to predict playoff success statistically does not mean that having a first round QB CAUSES plaiyoffs. Statistics can only show correlation. They cannot show or prove causality. If you don't believe me, I can go break out the list of 1st round QB's who never made the playoffs, or maybe made it once in 5 or 6 years. You know as well as I do that it's a VERY long list.

The second fallacy is the SINGLE part. There is no single factor that causes teams to go to the playoffs. It's a combination of good management, good coaching, good drafting, good FA decisions and players playing up to their potential, amongst other things. In fact, I'm pretty sure you'll agree with this based on what you already said:



Totally agree, again, the lump sum scenario.






So if no one said he was worthy before January, but now pretty much everyone says he's worthy of a top ten pick, which version was right? This assumes people who follow the draft can't change their rankings, which just plain isn't reality. Or are we simply selectively choosing when a player was ranked, and where to fit our personal preference? I've said it over and over, the Bills will be making the choice. If they make that choice, because they thought he was worthy, I have no issue with it.

The team should not reach, but who decides whether it's a reach or not?

I'm ok with people changing their rankings DURING the season when guys are playing. I'm ok with guys tinkering with their draft charts now, especially since we know exactly who has declared. What makes me nervous is when guys suddenly shoot up the draft charts when there are no football games. Hell, we haven't even had pro days or the combine yet. If someone is shooting up draft charts now, it's based on something other than football. And that's what sends up a red flag for me.

[OpIv37]

oh and as far as deciding whether or not it's a reach, I agree there is some subjectivity to it, and there really is no way to tell until the player has a chance to play.

But when the overwhelming majority of draftniks have a guy going in a certain range and a team picks him 15 or 20 picks ahead of that range, it's a reach. See Ginn Jr, Ted.

[X-Era]

There are two problems with this. The first is that you are still confusing correlation with causality. Just because picking a first round QB can be used to predict playoff success statistically does not mean that having a first round QB CAUSES plaiyoffs. Statistics can only show correlation. They cannot show or prove causality. If you don't believe me, I can go break out the list of 1st round QB's who never made the playoffs, or maybe made it once in 5 or 6 years. You know as well as I do that it's a VERY long list.
No, I'm not confused at all. I feel the total sum of the parts of the team will determine its success. I am saying that QB is a very significant part of the equation and that the majority of playoff teams in the past 10 years have found the answer to that part of the puzzle to be a 1st round QB. I see no reason we shouldn't follow suit.


The second fallacy is the SINGLE part. There is no single factor that causes teams to go to the playoffs. It's a combination of good management, good coaching, good drafting, good FA decisions and players playing up to their potential, amongst other things. In fact, I'm pretty sure you'll agree with this based on what you already said. I fully get this and have been saying just that all along.


I'm ok with people changing their rankings DURING the season when guys are playing. I'm ok with guys tinkering with their draft charts now, especially since we know exactly who has declared. What makes me nervous is when guys suddenly shoot up the draft charts when there are no football games. Hell, we haven't even had pro days or the combine yet. If someone is shooting up draft charts now, it's based on something other than football. And that's what sends up a red flag for me. With Gabbert, many thought he was a mid to late 1st rounder. He simply has moved to top 10. For 2 reasons IMO. I don;t think many thought he would declare. I didn't expect that. And I think many didn't really watch him closely, and left his rank alone mid-season because of it. The other reason is that I think many realize how important the position is and that once Luck was out of the picture, the boards adjusted to find the top QB. And once the guys who follow the draft investigated who the top guy should be by looking closer at the games, and the whole picture, they picked Gabbert. I'm not surprised at all, at several points in the season I was ready to move him to #2 on my QB list. But he played poorly in the Neb and Tex Tech game and it caused me to hesitate. I know some people don't like how the rankings change but they do, it's just how it goes. To me it's smart. Many of their livelihood depends on their ability to successfull rank and predict players. To them, that's too much on the line to make the call on a player mid-season. A smart guy will be a bit risky but be willing to adjust based on new information. And most importantly, the teams themselves will not have the final rank on a player until the whole process is over. The will have a range, but not a final answer.

To me, Gabbert has moved up into top 10 consideration, maybe even top 5. That means, to me he moved up 10-15 places. That's not crazy... Drafting Erik Flowers in the 1st round when some draft guides didn't even have his name listed is crazy.

[X-Era]

oh and as far as deciding whether or not it's a reach, I agree there is some subjectivity to it, and there really is no way to tell until the player has a chance to play.

But when the overwhelming majority of draftniks have a guy going in a certain range and a team picks him 15 or 20 picks ahead of that range, it's a reach. See Ginn Jr, Ted.The majority of mainstream draftnicks out there have Gabbert as a top 10 selection and moreover a borderline top 5 guy so I guess there is no reach there.

One more point on the mainstream draftnicks. Many follow each others leads, and most constantly change their ranks as new opinions, or information comes out. But what are they really? People with an opinion on a player. That means anyone reading them is seeking out there opinion. It's not a definitive answer, there isn't one. So some go and read their opinion mid-season and then discard their opinion after the season is over. Is their opinion worth anything or not? I mean before the season was even over and all the games were played it was worth something. But now after all the games have been played it's worth nothing. If we trust their opinions, we should be willing to trust their opinions throughout the process.

How can you rank your boards when half the players in the 1st round may or may not even be there? (juniors). And why would you rank your board mid-season when all the games haven't even been played? And you realize that most of the reputable sources go back and review individual play after the season is over right? For Gabbert, Mayock and McShay both mentioned how they went back and watched his games more closely after the season was over. When you watch a player more closely, you shouldn't adjust your opinion on him?

And, the predictions on where a player gets drafted are not just based on where you yourself would draft him, but where a team will draft him. That's particularly true with QB's. The position is coveted. I may look at a QB and think they are worth only a late 1st pick but if they are the top QB that year, a team easily could draft him earlier based on need. Draftnicks see this and it does play a part in their ranks. I will give you another example that I think will play out this year. I don't think any OT's should go before pick 15 personally. But I think there is a great chance one will go top 10.

[jlgarsh]

Why? If he claims innocence and still loses, he's guilty and a liar. But if he accepts a intervention, innocent or not, he can show responsibility and maturity and teams can potentially chalk it up to a mistake that he was willing to own up to.

I guess I'm saying that I could see that taking the pre-trial intervention was more about how he could be viewed going forward than whether he was innocent or guilty.

Great Point X-Era! I think people forget how much an attorney can cost, especially to fight charges. Not everyone has the resources to successfully fight a court case (and let's be honest...would you really want to take your chances with the public defender?). I'm neither pro nor anti Newton at this point....I want to see how everything plays out with the combine and pro days before making up my mind.

[better days]

Great Point X-Era! I think people forget how much an attorney can cost, especially to fight charges. Not everyone has the resources to successfully fight a court case (and let's be honest...would you really want to take your chances with the public defender?). I'm neither pro nor anti Newton at this point....I want to see how everything plays out with the combine and pro days before making up my mind.

It is very rare charges are brought against people that are innocent. Even with a stolen computer in his posession if Newton did not know it was stolen, he could have said as much & given it up to the police & that would have been the end of it. Instead Newton threw the computer out a window & any lawyer would have a hard time defending that.

If Newton bought a computer he did not know was stolen, you can bet the administration at Fla would have talked to the DA & no charges would have been brought against him. If innocent, he would not have needed a lawyer.