For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

[X-Era]

Here's McShay's tweets, short and sweet:

"FYI-this is why players rise/fall this time of yr(at least for me).Finally off road, have all coach-copy tape and three wks to grind tape."

http://twitter.com/#!/McShay13/status/36472944087531520

"Dudes who think I'm suddenly adjusting an opinion on a player in early Feb for any other reason have no concept of the process..."

http://twitter.com/#!/McShay13/status/36474084996939776

As I've said, after the season is done, draftnicks get a chance to further digest the season... teams do as well.

[YardRat]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

I have no issue with talking heads adjusting their rankings during the off-season from watching game film...I have a problem with guys rising and falling based on combine and pro day results.

McShay may be just getting around to catching up on film, but scouting departments have been keeping an eye on most of these guys throughout the season.

[Thief]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

If the combine and pro days couldn't effect your rating no one would watch them.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

If the combine and pro days couldn't effect your rating no one would watch them.

you misunderstand, the combine is just the top layer, its not the foundation.

[Thief]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

you misunderstand, the combine is just the top layer, its not the foundation.

And how exactly does my post lead you to believe that is my understanding?

It is really a simple concept. If the combine was meaningless, they wouldn't do it.

[alohabillsfan]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

The Combine was originally held to defray medical and travel costs. The combine today is just a marketing tool and used to keep people talking about the NFL. Anyone that uses a stop watch to pick players is an idiot. The most usefull parts of the combine are medial evaluations and interviews period. The other stuff is fluff.

[k-oneputt]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

How exactly are the Bills picking their players then ? It surely hasn't been from superior scouting and predicting how players will translate to the NFL.

[DraftBoy]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

How exactly are the Bills picking their players then ? It surely hasn't been from superior scouting and predicting how players will translate to the NFL.

Each scout must take 3 shots of Patron, be spun around in an office chair 7 times, and then throw a dart at the draft board. Most darts is the pick!

[OpIv37]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

If the combine and pro days couldn't effect your rating no one would watch them.

it can in a way.

If a guy who's slated to go as a top 10 pick shows great measurables at the combine, maybe he goes top 5. Or, maybe a mid-late 1st round guy runs a really slow 40 and drops to the early 2nd round. Or maybe a team switches their #1 and #2 guys at a certain position based on combine performances.

Stuff like that makes sense.

The problem is when some guy who is slotted to go in the mid-20's based on how he played ACTUAL FOOTBALL during the season suddenly jumps into the top 10 because of how he does on a track without pads or contact.

[Thief]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

it can in a way.

If a guy who's slated to go as a top 10 pick shows great measurables at the combine, maybe he goes top 5. Or, maybe a mid-late 1st round guy runs a really slow 40 and drops to the early 2nd round. Or maybe a team switches their #1 and #2 guys at a certain position based on combine performances.

Stuff like that makes sense.

The problem is when some guy who is slotted to go in the mid-20's based on how he played ACTUAL FOOTBALL during the season suddenly jumps into the top 10 because of how he does on a track without pads or contact.

Agreed.

I have heard GMs say it is used a confirmation tool. But, what do you think happens if some of your concerns are confirmed? What do you think happens when their expections are succeded? You can't simply not do anything and leave the guy were you had him previously every single time. I would say this can move them a few spots. What if peterson runs a 4.2 like he is predicting? What if AJ Green runs a 4.6?

There are also times when a player "slips under the radar" then runs a 4.3, or some other measureable, prompting scouts across the nation to take a closer look at his tapes. I would think this has had a significant impact several times in the course of draft history. It only takes one team to fall in love. (Raiders- Russel, etal)

Height and weight surely has had an impact. (D Brees- height, T. Cody-weight)

What about the interveiw (as someone mentioned). I think that helped Tebow. It could also make or break Newton.

Is it a tell all? Not even close. But, it surely has an "impact".

[better days]

Re: For those who can't get why prospects rise and fall after the season is over

Each scout must take 3 shots of Patron, be spun around in an office chair 7 times, and then throw a dart at the draft board. Most darts is the pick!

Patron............OK..........as long as it's not Jagermeister.