Questions: For the boards draft gurus, and data specialists

[Extremebillsfan247]

Every year around this time, a lot of talk is tossed around about the draft with a lot of focus on QBs, Dlinemen, Olinemen, etc. What is rarely ever discussed though, and what I would be interested in finding out is what percentages of Juniors who declare for the draft actually succeed at the pro level, and how they stack up against Seniors who are drafted. Is there really a difference? Does that extra year in college really matter anymore? Who is more likely to succeed at the next level? Who is at greater risk of being a bust? What makes a junior get taken higher in the draft than his senior counterparts?

I don't even know if these questions can be answered on a message board. But there are a few very knowledgeable posters here who might know these things so I decided to give it a shot and see where this goes. Any input is welcomed though.

[psubills62]

Good question.

I don't have the numbers, but there's a few things that should be clarified first. One is what qualifies success? A breakdown of Pro Bowl players, All-Pro players, MVP's, etc., would probably be good. Obviously there is no one measure of success, but something else to add would be # of games played/started, # of years in the league. I'd like to see on average how long each lasts in the league.

Another problem is a red-shirt. How do red-shirt juniors compare to true or RS seniors? How do RS sophomores compare to true juniors? I think two breakdowns would be appropriate: 1) official college standing (RS sophomore, RS junior, junior, RS senior, senior) and 2) number of years removed from high school.

This sounds like something I'd like to do, but I'm not sure I have the time right now. Plus, it seems it would be a little difficult to find out all of this (what college year players were in when drafted, level of success, etc.).

[Extremebillsfan247]

Good question.

I don't have the numbers, but there's a few things that should be clarified first. One is what qualifies success? A breakdown of Pro Bowl players, All-Pro players, MVP's, etc., would probably be good. Obviously there is no one measure of success, but something else to add would be # of games played/started, # of years in the league. I'd like to see on average how long each lasts in the league.

Another problem is a red-shirt. How do red-shirt juniors compare to true or RS seniors? How do RS sophomores compare to true juniors? I think two breakdowns would be appropriate: 1) official college standing (RS sophomore, RS junior, junior, RS senior, senior) and 2) number of years removed from high school.

This sounds like something I'd like to do, but I'm not sure I have the time right now. Plus, it seems it would be a little difficult to find out all of this (what college year players were in when drafted, level of success, etc.).

It would be nice to have someone break it all down and maybe write an article on it to post on Billszone? I would definitely read that. JMO

[DraftBoy]

You're talking about hours and hours of number crunching and research. Im not sure many have the required time to do it.

[ddaryl]

Google is our friend

I found this write up so far. It is older but gives some insight worth discussion

http://min.scout.com/2/857899.html


2008 – It’s still too early to tell, but of the 11 underclassmen drafted, more than half had little to no impact. Darren McFadden (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249023) (4th overall) struggled to live up to the “Next Adrian Peterson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4176315)” tag, Vernon Gholston (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3244585) (6) never got off the bench and Derrick Harvey (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3723607) (8) held out and registered just four sacks. On the flip side, Jerod Mayo (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3723718) (10), Jonathan Stewart (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3735373) (13) and Branden Albert (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3542598) (15) more than lived up to expectations.

2007 – The draft produced two superstars early in Calvin Johnson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3698764) (2) and Adrian Peterson (7), along with solid performers in Marshawn Lynch (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3661926) (12), Greg Olsen (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4208327) (31) and Anthony Gonzalez (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4217505) (32). But of the 14 underclassmen taken, more were busts than booms, including top pick JaMarcus Russell (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249031), Ted Ginn (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4215408) (9), Jarvis Moss (17), Reggie Nelson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3631846) (21) and Robert Meacham (27).

2006 – A total of 12 underclassmen came out, including the top three picks. Mario Williams (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3661759) (1) was scoffed at when Houston took him first overall, but he has far exceeded the contributions made by Reggie Bush (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3668795) (2) and Vince Young (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3671252) (3). Vernon Davis (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3684111) (6) has been injured and in and out of the coach’s doghouse, Laurence Maroney (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3694733) (21) has been in and out of the starting lineup and John McCargo (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4007938) (26) was known only in upstate New York. The best players out of this class have been Ernie Sims (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3698780) (9), Haloti Ngata (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662160) (12), Antonio Cromartie (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4189268) (19) and Santonio Holmes (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3683543) (25), but the problems at the top make this a suspect class.

2005 – Perhaps never has a top 10 been so hideous. This ugly draft class included top pick Alex Smith (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3630579), Pacman Jones (6), Troy Williamson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3631849) (7) and Mike Williams (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3671259) (10). While it did include superstar Shawne Merriman (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4189310) (12), only he, Aaron Rodgers (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4209055) (24) and Heath Miller (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3683553) (30) can be viewed in hindsight as success stories among the juniors.

2004 – A record-setting 15 underclassmen were drafted in the first round and, once again, the results were 50/50. It had its share of stars in Larry Fitzgerald (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249303) (3), the late Sean Taylor (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=2981648) (5), Kellen Winslow (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4209322) (6), DeAngelo Hall (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4208801) (8), Ben Roethlisberger (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3683561) (11), Tommie Harris (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4208312) (14), Vince Wilfork (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4300606) (21) and Steven Jackson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4269448) (24). But it also had its share of duds, including Reggie Williams (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3690065) (9), Michael Clayton (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4285972) (15), Kenechi Udeze (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4241821) (20), Ahmad Carroll (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4237116) (25) and Kevin Jones (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4221286) (30). All in all, there were more hits than misses and quite a few game-changers that year.

2003 – Only 10 underclassmen were taken in the first round and, of those, only three became big-time stars – Andre Johnson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3661733) (3), Terrell Suggs (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662175) (10) and Willis McGahee (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662158) (23). How different might Detroit be if they had taken Johnson instead of Charles Rogers (2)? Teams traded up to get defensive tackles Dewayne Robertson (4) and Johnathan Sullivan (6) and neither panned out. The Bears hoped to solve their quarter-century QB woes by taking Rex Grossman (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3630242) (24), but we know how that turned out. It was a bad year to take a chance on youth.

2002 – There were more hits than misses here. Julius Peppers (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662071) (2) and safety Roy Williams (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662248) (8) became defensive stars, as did Albert Haynesworth (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4208978) (15). There were some offensive stars as well, including Jeremy Shockey (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3853437) (14), but there were many more offensive misses – like Donte Stallworth (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4209197) (13), William Green (16) (instead of Clinton Portis (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4208052), who played for the Browns’ head coach in college), Ashley Lelie (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3936129) (19) and Jerramy Stevens (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4219944) (28). It wasn’t a good year for offense in ’02.

2001 – Thirteen wasn’t a lucky number for underclassmen that year. The only star-quality players to come of that draft were Justin Smith (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3971215) (4) and Nate Clements (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3684108) (21). Until his dog-fighting scandal, Michael Vick (1) made the list as a success story, but no more. This rogue’s gallery includes Gerard Warren (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249040) (3), David Terrell (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=1308957) (8), Koren Robinson (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4178844) (9), Willie Middlebrooks (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3916750) (24), Freddie Mitchell (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=1964326) (25), Michael Bennett (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4189244) (27) and Ryan Pickett (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4209052) (29). Yuck!

2000 – There were only seven underclassmen that year and the hit percentage was as high as any since. It included LaVarr Arrington (2), Jamal Lewis (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4209180) (5), Plaxico Burress (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3672449) (8), Bubba Franks (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4211149) (14), Sebastian Janikowski (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249017) (17) and Rashard Anderson (23). While some of their talents relative to their draft position can be argued, the only true dud of the bunch was former Viking Travis Taylor (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3662079) – taken 10th overall by the Ravens.

1999 – Just another example of the hit-and-miss nature of drafting underclassmen. That year saw Tim Couch go No. 1 and stink the joint out, but on the positive side, it also produced Edgerrin James (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249445) (4), Champ Bailey (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=4249807) (7), John Tait (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3630273) (14) and Jevon Kearse (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=3639230) (16). However, aside from Couch, it also had David Boston (8), Damien Woody (http://min.scout.com/a.z?s=63&p=8&c=1&nid=2981857) (17), Reggie McGrew (24) and Andy Katzenmoyer (28).

If anything, a decade of evidence has shown us that, while as many as half of the teams in the first round will end up taking an underclassmen in the first round, their success rate in the NFL is slightly under 50 percent – making them more of a risk than they may appear on face value.

[Don't Panic]

You're talking about hours and hours of number crunching and research. Im not sure many have the required time to do it.

Funny... I thought this place was a collection of people who have the time to do just that!

[TacklingDummy]

On the other hand how many seniors turned out to be busts?

[DraftBoy]

Funny... I thought this place was a collection of people who have the time to do just that!

Come now, you know people here don't do research.

[Extremebillsfan247]

On the other hand how many seniors turned out to be busts?That's another thing I'd like to try and gauge here. But, not so much on how many of them turn out to be busts, but to find out if there is a clearly defined, or any difference at all between drafting an underclassman, and a senior.