patmoran2006
03-03-2011, 02:52 PM
Here comes my third crack at a mock draft since the NFL season ended; admittedly a figure that is probably three too many. I’ve always thought it was a joke people with few, if any intimate knowledge to an organization enter the business of predicting what each team in the NFL will do with their first draft picks to improve their respective teams. Factor in we’re merely into the first few days of March and there’s 32 general managers who don’t have much of an idea themselves yet of what they’ll do, and it becomes even more laughable.
Then again… it’s also fun.
At the same time, mock drafting is like an addiction for any writer. Minds run rapid with possibilities as each armchair GM with a laptop slaps a mock together in hope fans look back at and marvel at your prognostication prowess. That is unless, of course, your name is Mike Mayock and you’re the only analyst in the country to nail down Donte Whitner with the eighth overall pick in 2006. But I digress.
So with my third and what will surely be my last attempt until a few days before the actual draft, I’m reasonably confident I got the Bills third overall selection nailed down to a pair of frontrunners. A flurry of circumstances will ultimately dictate the pick as players will continue to move up and down draft boards, but between now and April 28 I think it comes down to one of two that’ll be playing for (hopefully) several years in Orchard Park.
Cam Newton and Marcell Dareus.
Let’s throw this out right now; if the Bills tab Newton, he’s not going to be the NFL Rookie of the Year. In fact, C. J. Spiller’s rookie season will seem like Thurman Thomas’ best by comparison. He already has a long way to go by way of learning the pro game and the likeliness there won’t be a full offseason of OTA’s and training camp because of the CBA doesn’t help his cause. There’s little doubt if Newton becomes a Buffalo Bill, the most productive thing he may do in 2011 is hold the clipboard for incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Having said that, Newton is the rarest of athletic quarterbacks and the Bills would be foolish to dismiss based on what he can do as a rookie. Last I checked, the Bills won’t be topping any list of Super Bowl contenders regardless of who’s the third overall pick. He’s unquestionably the type of player that will take time to develop as pro quarterback in coming over from Auburn’s spread offense. But when he does learn the game, he has the ability to be one of, if not the best quarterbacks in the league.
Another factor is Chan Gailey. While no one will confuse him as one of the game’s elite head coaches, to a man Gailey is respected as a quarterback guru who can make average ones look special. He’s done it with Kordell Stewart, Tyler Thigpen and most recently Fitzpatrick and trust me, none of them hold a candle to the God-given talent of Newton’s. Three years from now with Gailey as the teacher and a skilled supporting cast of receivers and running backs, Newton has the ceiling to be as dynamic as it gets in the NFL.
Then there’s Dareus, who many reasonably feel is a perfect fit as a solid start on the defensive line and would have a far more immediate impact than Newton. I think Dareus is the kind of player defensive coordinator George Edwards desperately was hoping Marcus Stroud could be in his defense. Dareus will never lead the NFL in sacks, quarterback pressures or forced fumbles, but he’d be a rock on the line, whether lining up as a defensive end or inside in a 4-3 tackle look. He’s steady, strong and far safer of a pick. He’ll give you production from day one and do more than just his share to avoid a repeat of eight 200+ rushing yard games by Bills opponents in 2010.
But here’s the biggest question. Can the addition of Marcell Dareus with the third pick do more for the franchise to eventually transform the Bills from a four-win team to an organization that perennially competes (legitimately) for a playoff spot? I guess that depends on if the organization feels Newton is a real franchise quarterback.
Let’s find out….
1. Carolina- Nick Fairley, DT (Auburn): There’s been plenty of chatter recently that Dareus may have passed Fairley because he’s 28 pounds heavier and more versatile in regards to scheme, but I don’t buy him going ahead of Fairley. The Panthers could easily go quarterback if new coach Ron Rivera isn’t married to Jimmy Clausen and the team can use plenty of help almost everywhere, but Fairley remains a stud defensive playmaker in this draft and should be the first overall selection.
2. Denver – Patrick Peterson, CB (LSU): I think this spot could be a huge trade down opportunity because of the two picks coming following theirs, and Denver would love to be able to slide and pick up more picks, but I don’t allow trades in my mock. The Broncos badly need help in their 4-3 defense with John Fox taking over but they’re weak almost anywhere and Peterson is the best player on the board. Even with Champ Bailey returning, it will be hard for John Elway to pass on Peterson, especially because Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn are looking a little riskier by the day.
3. Buffalo – Cam Newton, QB (Auburn): This is the third different player I have slotted for the Bills in three mocks. Finally, I think I may be done moving this selection around. Ultimately, I feel Buddy Nix recognizes this truly is a quarterback driven league and while Ryan Fitzpatrick is a nice feel-good story, Buffalo is never going to contend with him behind center. The Bills have never gambled this high on a quarterback and this could be their first. At the end of the day, Newton has the potential to revolutionize the position and the combination of Chan Gailey getting to work with him along with Fitzpatrick in tow so he’s not rushed make Newton the pick.
Of all the opinions I’ve read and heard, Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News’ resonates the most. He said it perfect; a great quarterback will win you more games than any great defensive end. The biggest deterrent, as discussed at the top, could be the CBA. If it drags out and Newton has to miss OTAS and large chunks of training camps, his pick is a complete wash in 2011 as opposed to a defensive player who can contribute right away. This is something not lost on anyteam thinking about drafting a quarterback.
Lastly, and this swings to me Newton again in a big way, a likely rookie wage scale makes a Newton gamble less financially stressful to Ralph Wilson. Do NOT discount that.
(Editors Note: I know I’ll catch a lot of flack for not even mentioning Blaine Gabbert to the Bills. Frankly, without any intimate sources regarding Buffalo’s front office feelings on him, I just don’t think the organization will be that interested in him).
4. Cincinnati – Blaine Gabbert, QB (Missouri): I’ll keep this short and sweet; I believe Carson Palmer when he says he’d rather retire than go on playing for the Bengals. Nobody knows when, but Palmer will eventually be traded with San Francisco or Seattle seeming like great fits. In my mind, this puts Gabbert ahead of A.J. Green, who nearly everyone has going to the Bengals because of their mess of a receiver situation.
5. Arizona- Von Miller, LB (Texas A&M): Back with the second pick I said Denver would love to trade down. The Cardinals, desperately in need of a quarterback would be the top candidate to move up three spots. No one is talking about it now, but for Bills fans who wanting Newton, this could be the trade that prevents it. But in keeping with my no-trade mock spirit, the Cardinals have to settle for Miller, who would replace Joey Porter and give Arizona a big boost in the pass rush.
6. Cleveland- A.J. Green, WR (Georgia): Dick Jauron is the new defensive coordinator and the Browns could use some help on the front four, but what position on this team is worst than wide receiver? Mike Holmgren is locked into Colt McCoy as the future and Green gives him a legit weapon.
7. San Francisco- Robert Quinn, DE (North Carolina): There’s no doubt the 49ers will be in the market for a quarterback via trade, free agency or the draft. I anticipate them drafting a quarterback in the second or third round, even if they are able to land someone in a trade. Robert Quinn fits in nicely here.
8. Tennessee- Da’Quan Bowers, DE (Clemson): Yet another team in the top ten that could use a quarterback. It’s a shame Andrew Luck didn’t enter the draft as this top ten would’ve played out so much differently. Injury concerns have Bowers slip a little but the small slide ends right here.
9. Dallas – Marcell Dareus, DL (Alabama): The other candidate I have going to Buffalo if it’s not Newton, Jerry Jones will feel great about getting him right here, even with cornerback Prince Amukamara on the board.
10. Washington – Cameron Jordan, DE (California): Mike Shanahan can do anything with this pick and the Skins’ are definitely looking for a quarterback. This could easily be a spot for the first shocker of the draft, with perhaps Jake Locker or Ryan Mallet going way higher than anyone anticipated or even mammoth defensive tackle Stephen Pea, who unlike Albert Haynesworth is a true 3-4 tackle. In the end, Jordan is a great value pick and would give Brian Orakpo much needed help with the pass rush.
11. Houston – Prince Amukamara, CB (Nebraska): Wade Phillips takes over what’s been a pathetic pass defense and although they could use help in the front seven just as much, there’s no way the second best corner in the draft is getting past this spot.
12. Minnesota – Jake Locker, QB (Washington): Leslie Frazier has security as the head coach and therefore, the luxury of developing a quarterback. Though his production was disappointing in college, Locker has so many quality physical tools that make him intriguing and with Travares Jackson the current leading man, Locker could easily be the pick with the idea of him starting in 2012 in mind.
13. Detroit- Tyron Smith, OT (USC): Julio Jones could be a mild surprise pick here, but the Lions have to do everything possible to protect Matt Stafford better. Since I have Smith as my top rated tackle, it only make sense for him to come off the board right now.
14. St. Louis- Julio Jones, WR (Alabama): The Rams should sprint to the podium to hand this card in. Sam Bradford needs a solid weapon to progress to the next level and make no mistake about it, Jones is that guy, as long as his foot checks out there’s no way he gets past the Rams.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB (Alabama): Plenty of people will stray away from Ingram going this high after running a slow at the combine, but he’s the kind of workhorse the Dolphins love and his 40 yard time won’t scare them off. When I started putting this mock together I thought of Locker, but with so many quarterback needy teams ahead of the Dolphins, Locker benefits and will come off the board earlier than most think.
16. Jacksonville- J.J. Watt, DE (Wisconsin): The Jags can use help almost across the board defensively and Watt is the most gifted player at this stage of the first round. His stock is rising after a solid combine and it’s not like nobody knew of him before it.
17. New England- Anthony Castanzo, OT (Boston College): Matt Light will probably leave when free agency starts, the Patriots don’t have great depth on the offensive line and the kid who went to school nearby will remain in the area. A lot of experts think they’ll go pass rush first since they have three of the first 33 picks. But this helps protect their biggest asset, Tom Brady.
18. San Diego- Gabe Carimi, OT (Wisconsin): The Chargers can use plenty of help defensively, but this is the time of the draft where a run of offensive tackles could hit mid swing. There’s a lot of depth on the defensive line and the Chargers can come back with a good player in round two.
19. New York Giants- Brandon Harris, CB (Miami): Tom Coughlin always has a premium on cornerbacks and Aaron Ross has struggled badly for two straight seasons. They could easily go offensive tackle with Derek Sherrod or Nate Solder, but Harris could be a steal for them.
20. Tampa Bay- Aldon Smith, DE (Missouri): The Bucs have plenty of young talent offensively with Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount. Now it’s time to get more pieces on the defense as Tampa look to continue getting better after narrowly missing the playoffs last year despite 10 wins.
21. Kansas City- Ryan Kerrigan, DE (Purdue): At this point of the draft Kerrigan could be a steal. One of the few true 3-4 teams in the league, the Chiefs will be thrilled to add him this late in the first round.
22. Indianapolis- Derek Sherrod, OT (Mississippi State): Peyton Manning isn’t going anywhere for a while and Bill Polian will continue to try and surround him with as many quality offensive linemen as possible. Sherrod is a little rough around the edges but has the potential to be a stud.
23. Philadelphia- Nate Solder, OT (Colorado): With the tackle crop suddenly running thin in this draft, Solder will be groomed to take over right tackle, which happens to be left-hander Mike Vick’s blind side.
24. New Orleans- Adrain Clayborn, DE (Iowa): Needing more guys who can get after the passer, Clayborn would be a nice fit with the Saints. Of course, they can use a running back but the trend generally seems to be finding them closer to the middle of the draft. Any running back they take will have less pressure with Drew Brees slinging the ball.
25. Seattle- Torrey Smith, WR (Maryland): Locker could easily go here if he’s on the board and Ryan Mallet will be considered, but with the probability the team will have to wait until later to find a quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck will probably be back. Smith fits that best player available label right here, though a case could certainly be made for linebacker Justin Houston.
26. Baltimore- Titus Young, WR (Boise State): Joe Flacco desperately needs a receiver who can get down field to make plays and Young fits the bill. He’s explosive and could be a perfect deep compliment to Anquan Boldin.
27. Atlanta- Jimmy Smith, CB (Colorado): Did anyone else see what Aaron Rodgers did to this secondary in the playoffs? The Falcons need to add to their secondary. Smith is the best player this late in the first round, so this should be a no-brainer.
28. New England- Justin Houston, LB (Georgia): After addressing the offensive line with their first of two picks in this round, the Patriots would be thrilled to see Houston, who can become a quality pass rusher with this pick. Too bad, because I’d love to see him slide down to the Bills at 34.
29. Chicago- Jon Baldwin, WR (Pittsburgh): Jay Cutler definitely needs a possession receiver who can work with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. Baldwin can be that guy. They’d love to get themselves a tackle here, but Baldwin can have an immediate impact as the Bears look return to the NFC championship game.
30. New York Jets- Stephen Pea, DT (Oregon State): 49 reps at the combine? Let’s keep this short and sweet—- He won’t get past the Jets if he’s on the board this late in the first round.
31. Pittsburgh- Benjamin Ijalana, OL (Villanova): A bit of a project pick here, I got him over Mike Pouncey, who everyone else seems to have penciled in to the Steelers in large part because his brother is already here. With development, I’m told Ijalana can develop into one of the biggest steals of the draft.
32. Green Bay – Cameron Heyward, DE (Ohio State): With Cullen Jenkins possibly leaving via free agency and Ryan Pickett being 34-years old, the Super Bowl champs would love to welcome Heyward into the mix. Shame too, because my original hope was to have Heyward slip to the Bills two picks later, but my mock is based on what I think 32 different teams will do, not what I want to happen for Buffalo.
ROUND TWO
33. New England- Mike LeShoure, RB (Illinois): A strong, physical type of running back that would form a nice trio with Ben-Jarvis Green and Danny Woodhead and could someday develop into their feature back.
4. Buffalo- Martez Wilson, ILB (Illinois): Since this is a copycat league and division rivals New England and New York have pummeled the Bills defense with their tight ends, I am very, very tempted to insert Kyle Rudolph into this spot, of whom many compare to Rob Gronkowski. The pick would further bolster the offense and God knows the Bills could use an adequate tight end. But even though I’ve heard the Bills will target defensive help almost exclusively when/if free agency starts, I can’t fathom Nix passing on defense for two straight rounds.
A lot of analysts project Wilson as an outside linebacker. People I’ve talked to say he’ more than capable of remaining inside on a 3-4. Regardless of where he lines up, and don’t forget the Bills are allegedly committed to a hybrid defense, Wilson can be a playmaker and I like his flexibility enough to take him over Akeem Ayers, who many will be surprised to find him still on my board. Ayers may have more natural talent, but word I hear is he’s often unmotivated and probably didn’t win himself many fans in scouting departments with a lackluster combine performance.
THINGS OF NOTE
I left Ryan Mallet off my first 34 picks, although I can actually see him going as high as 10th overall to Washington. Without question the biggest enigma of this draft, Mallet has all the physical tools but doesn’t seem to offer much more, though he seems to be working on it since the NFL podium disaster last week. His dazzling on-field performance the following day was a good start. Still, Ryan Leaf v2.0 is not an unfair assessment.
Other notable names not in my top 34 include Rudolph, Ayers and Mike Pouncey, though I certainly wouldn’t wager on any being around at pick 35.
Then again… it’s also fun.
At the same time, mock drafting is like an addiction for any writer. Minds run rapid with possibilities as each armchair GM with a laptop slaps a mock together in hope fans look back at and marvel at your prognostication prowess. That is unless, of course, your name is Mike Mayock and you’re the only analyst in the country to nail down Donte Whitner with the eighth overall pick in 2006. But I digress.
So with my third and what will surely be my last attempt until a few days before the actual draft, I’m reasonably confident I got the Bills third overall selection nailed down to a pair of frontrunners. A flurry of circumstances will ultimately dictate the pick as players will continue to move up and down draft boards, but between now and April 28 I think it comes down to one of two that’ll be playing for (hopefully) several years in Orchard Park.
Cam Newton and Marcell Dareus.
Let’s throw this out right now; if the Bills tab Newton, he’s not going to be the NFL Rookie of the Year. In fact, C. J. Spiller’s rookie season will seem like Thurman Thomas’ best by comparison. He already has a long way to go by way of learning the pro game and the likeliness there won’t be a full offseason of OTA’s and training camp because of the CBA doesn’t help his cause. There’s little doubt if Newton becomes a Buffalo Bill, the most productive thing he may do in 2011 is hold the clipboard for incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Having said that, Newton is the rarest of athletic quarterbacks and the Bills would be foolish to dismiss based on what he can do as a rookie. Last I checked, the Bills won’t be topping any list of Super Bowl contenders regardless of who’s the third overall pick. He’s unquestionably the type of player that will take time to develop as pro quarterback in coming over from Auburn’s spread offense. But when he does learn the game, he has the ability to be one of, if not the best quarterbacks in the league.
Another factor is Chan Gailey. While no one will confuse him as one of the game’s elite head coaches, to a man Gailey is respected as a quarterback guru who can make average ones look special. He’s done it with Kordell Stewart, Tyler Thigpen and most recently Fitzpatrick and trust me, none of them hold a candle to the God-given talent of Newton’s. Three years from now with Gailey as the teacher and a skilled supporting cast of receivers and running backs, Newton has the ceiling to be as dynamic as it gets in the NFL.
Then there’s Dareus, who many reasonably feel is a perfect fit as a solid start on the defensive line and would have a far more immediate impact than Newton. I think Dareus is the kind of player defensive coordinator George Edwards desperately was hoping Marcus Stroud could be in his defense. Dareus will never lead the NFL in sacks, quarterback pressures or forced fumbles, but he’d be a rock on the line, whether lining up as a defensive end or inside in a 4-3 tackle look. He’s steady, strong and far safer of a pick. He’ll give you production from day one and do more than just his share to avoid a repeat of eight 200+ rushing yard games by Bills opponents in 2010.
But here’s the biggest question. Can the addition of Marcell Dareus with the third pick do more for the franchise to eventually transform the Bills from a four-win team to an organization that perennially competes (legitimately) for a playoff spot? I guess that depends on if the organization feels Newton is a real franchise quarterback.
Let’s find out….
1. Carolina- Nick Fairley, DT (Auburn): There’s been plenty of chatter recently that Dareus may have passed Fairley because he’s 28 pounds heavier and more versatile in regards to scheme, but I don’t buy him going ahead of Fairley. The Panthers could easily go quarterback if new coach Ron Rivera isn’t married to Jimmy Clausen and the team can use plenty of help almost everywhere, but Fairley remains a stud defensive playmaker in this draft and should be the first overall selection.
2. Denver – Patrick Peterson, CB (LSU): I think this spot could be a huge trade down opportunity because of the two picks coming following theirs, and Denver would love to be able to slide and pick up more picks, but I don’t allow trades in my mock. The Broncos badly need help in their 4-3 defense with John Fox taking over but they’re weak almost anywhere and Peterson is the best player on the board. Even with Champ Bailey returning, it will be hard for John Elway to pass on Peterson, especially because Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn are looking a little riskier by the day.
3. Buffalo – Cam Newton, QB (Auburn): This is the third different player I have slotted for the Bills in three mocks. Finally, I think I may be done moving this selection around. Ultimately, I feel Buddy Nix recognizes this truly is a quarterback driven league and while Ryan Fitzpatrick is a nice feel-good story, Buffalo is never going to contend with him behind center. The Bills have never gambled this high on a quarterback and this could be their first. At the end of the day, Newton has the potential to revolutionize the position and the combination of Chan Gailey getting to work with him along with Fitzpatrick in tow so he’s not rushed make Newton the pick.
Of all the opinions I’ve read and heard, Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News’ resonates the most. He said it perfect; a great quarterback will win you more games than any great defensive end. The biggest deterrent, as discussed at the top, could be the CBA. If it drags out and Newton has to miss OTAS and large chunks of training camps, his pick is a complete wash in 2011 as opposed to a defensive player who can contribute right away. This is something not lost on anyteam thinking about drafting a quarterback.
Lastly, and this swings to me Newton again in a big way, a likely rookie wage scale makes a Newton gamble less financially stressful to Ralph Wilson. Do NOT discount that.
(Editors Note: I know I’ll catch a lot of flack for not even mentioning Blaine Gabbert to the Bills. Frankly, without any intimate sources regarding Buffalo’s front office feelings on him, I just don’t think the organization will be that interested in him).
4. Cincinnati – Blaine Gabbert, QB (Missouri): I’ll keep this short and sweet; I believe Carson Palmer when he says he’d rather retire than go on playing for the Bengals. Nobody knows when, but Palmer will eventually be traded with San Francisco or Seattle seeming like great fits. In my mind, this puts Gabbert ahead of A.J. Green, who nearly everyone has going to the Bengals because of their mess of a receiver situation.
5. Arizona- Von Miller, LB (Texas A&M): Back with the second pick I said Denver would love to trade down. The Cardinals, desperately in need of a quarterback would be the top candidate to move up three spots. No one is talking about it now, but for Bills fans who wanting Newton, this could be the trade that prevents it. But in keeping with my no-trade mock spirit, the Cardinals have to settle for Miller, who would replace Joey Porter and give Arizona a big boost in the pass rush.
6. Cleveland- A.J. Green, WR (Georgia): Dick Jauron is the new defensive coordinator and the Browns could use some help on the front four, but what position on this team is worst than wide receiver? Mike Holmgren is locked into Colt McCoy as the future and Green gives him a legit weapon.
7. San Francisco- Robert Quinn, DE (North Carolina): There’s no doubt the 49ers will be in the market for a quarterback via trade, free agency or the draft. I anticipate them drafting a quarterback in the second or third round, even if they are able to land someone in a trade. Robert Quinn fits in nicely here.
8. Tennessee- Da’Quan Bowers, DE (Clemson): Yet another team in the top ten that could use a quarterback. It’s a shame Andrew Luck didn’t enter the draft as this top ten would’ve played out so much differently. Injury concerns have Bowers slip a little but the small slide ends right here.
9. Dallas – Marcell Dareus, DL (Alabama): The other candidate I have going to Buffalo if it’s not Newton, Jerry Jones will feel great about getting him right here, even with cornerback Prince Amukamara on the board.
10. Washington – Cameron Jordan, DE (California): Mike Shanahan can do anything with this pick and the Skins’ are definitely looking for a quarterback. This could easily be a spot for the first shocker of the draft, with perhaps Jake Locker or Ryan Mallet going way higher than anyone anticipated or even mammoth defensive tackle Stephen Pea, who unlike Albert Haynesworth is a true 3-4 tackle. In the end, Jordan is a great value pick and would give Brian Orakpo much needed help with the pass rush.
11. Houston – Prince Amukamara, CB (Nebraska): Wade Phillips takes over what’s been a pathetic pass defense and although they could use help in the front seven just as much, there’s no way the second best corner in the draft is getting past this spot.
12. Minnesota – Jake Locker, QB (Washington): Leslie Frazier has security as the head coach and therefore, the luxury of developing a quarterback. Though his production was disappointing in college, Locker has so many quality physical tools that make him intriguing and with Travares Jackson the current leading man, Locker could easily be the pick with the idea of him starting in 2012 in mind.
13. Detroit- Tyron Smith, OT (USC): Julio Jones could be a mild surprise pick here, but the Lions have to do everything possible to protect Matt Stafford better. Since I have Smith as my top rated tackle, it only make sense for him to come off the board right now.
14. St. Louis- Julio Jones, WR (Alabama): The Rams should sprint to the podium to hand this card in. Sam Bradford needs a solid weapon to progress to the next level and make no mistake about it, Jones is that guy, as long as his foot checks out there’s no way he gets past the Rams.
15. Miami- Mark Ingram, RB (Alabama): Plenty of people will stray away from Ingram going this high after running a slow at the combine, but he’s the kind of workhorse the Dolphins love and his 40 yard time won’t scare them off. When I started putting this mock together I thought of Locker, but with so many quarterback needy teams ahead of the Dolphins, Locker benefits and will come off the board earlier than most think.
16. Jacksonville- J.J. Watt, DE (Wisconsin): The Jags can use help almost across the board defensively and Watt is the most gifted player at this stage of the first round. His stock is rising after a solid combine and it’s not like nobody knew of him before it.
17. New England- Anthony Castanzo, OT (Boston College): Matt Light will probably leave when free agency starts, the Patriots don’t have great depth on the offensive line and the kid who went to school nearby will remain in the area. A lot of experts think they’ll go pass rush first since they have three of the first 33 picks. But this helps protect their biggest asset, Tom Brady.
18. San Diego- Gabe Carimi, OT (Wisconsin): The Chargers can use plenty of help defensively, but this is the time of the draft where a run of offensive tackles could hit mid swing. There’s a lot of depth on the defensive line and the Chargers can come back with a good player in round two.
19. New York Giants- Brandon Harris, CB (Miami): Tom Coughlin always has a premium on cornerbacks and Aaron Ross has struggled badly for two straight seasons. They could easily go offensive tackle with Derek Sherrod or Nate Solder, but Harris could be a steal for them.
20. Tampa Bay- Aldon Smith, DE (Missouri): The Bucs have plenty of young talent offensively with Josh Freeman, Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount. Now it’s time to get more pieces on the defense as Tampa look to continue getting better after narrowly missing the playoffs last year despite 10 wins.
21. Kansas City- Ryan Kerrigan, DE (Purdue): At this point of the draft Kerrigan could be a steal. One of the few true 3-4 teams in the league, the Chiefs will be thrilled to add him this late in the first round.
22. Indianapolis- Derek Sherrod, OT (Mississippi State): Peyton Manning isn’t going anywhere for a while and Bill Polian will continue to try and surround him with as many quality offensive linemen as possible. Sherrod is a little rough around the edges but has the potential to be a stud.
23. Philadelphia- Nate Solder, OT (Colorado): With the tackle crop suddenly running thin in this draft, Solder will be groomed to take over right tackle, which happens to be left-hander Mike Vick’s blind side.
24. New Orleans- Adrain Clayborn, DE (Iowa): Needing more guys who can get after the passer, Clayborn would be a nice fit with the Saints. Of course, they can use a running back but the trend generally seems to be finding them closer to the middle of the draft. Any running back they take will have less pressure with Drew Brees slinging the ball.
25. Seattle- Torrey Smith, WR (Maryland): Locker could easily go here if he’s on the board and Ryan Mallet will be considered, but with the probability the team will have to wait until later to find a quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck will probably be back. Smith fits that best player available label right here, though a case could certainly be made for linebacker Justin Houston.
26. Baltimore- Titus Young, WR (Boise State): Joe Flacco desperately needs a receiver who can get down field to make plays and Young fits the bill. He’s explosive and could be a perfect deep compliment to Anquan Boldin.
27. Atlanta- Jimmy Smith, CB (Colorado): Did anyone else see what Aaron Rodgers did to this secondary in the playoffs? The Falcons need to add to their secondary. Smith is the best player this late in the first round, so this should be a no-brainer.
28. New England- Justin Houston, LB (Georgia): After addressing the offensive line with their first of two picks in this round, the Patriots would be thrilled to see Houston, who can become a quality pass rusher with this pick. Too bad, because I’d love to see him slide down to the Bills at 34.
29. Chicago- Jon Baldwin, WR (Pittsburgh): Jay Cutler definitely needs a possession receiver who can work with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. Baldwin can be that guy. They’d love to get themselves a tackle here, but Baldwin can have an immediate impact as the Bears look return to the NFC championship game.
30. New York Jets- Stephen Pea, DT (Oregon State): 49 reps at the combine? Let’s keep this short and sweet—- He won’t get past the Jets if he’s on the board this late in the first round.
31. Pittsburgh- Benjamin Ijalana, OL (Villanova): A bit of a project pick here, I got him over Mike Pouncey, who everyone else seems to have penciled in to the Steelers in large part because his brother is already here. With development, I’m told Ijalana can develop into one of the biggest steals of the draft.
32. Green Bay – Cameron Heyward, DE (Ohio State): With Cullen Jenkins possibly leaving via free agency and Ryan Pickett being 34-years old, the Super Bowl champs would love to welcome Heyward into the mix. Shame too, because my original hope was to have Heyward slip to the Bills two picks later, but my mock is based on what I think 32 different teams will do, not what I want to happen for Buffalo.
ROUND TWO
33. New England- Mike LeShoure, RB (Illinois): A strong, physical type of running back that would form a nice trio with Ben-Jarvis Green and Danny Woodhead and could someday develop into their feature back.
4. Buffalo- Martez Wilson, ILB (Illinois): Since this is a copycat league and division rivals New England and New York have pummeled the Bills defense with their tight ends, I am very, very tempted to insert Kyle Rudolph into this spot, of whom many compare to Rob Gronkowski. The pick would further bolster the offense and God knows the Bills could use an adequate tight end. But even though I’ve heard the Bills will target defensive help almost exclusively when/if free agency starts, I can’t fathom Nix passing on defense for two straight rounds.
A lot of analysts project Wilson as an outside linebacker. People I’ve talked to say he’ more than capable of remaining inside on a 3-4. Regardless of where he lines up, and don’t forget the Bills are allegedly committed to a hybrid defense, Wilson can be a playmaker and I like his flexibility enough to take him over Akeem Ayers, who many will be surprised to find him still on my board. Ayers may have more natural talent, but word I hear is he’s often unmotivated and probably didn’t win himself many fans in scouting departments with a lackluster combine performance.
THINGS OF NOTE
I left Ryan Mallet off my first 34 picks, although I can actually see him going as high as 10th overall to Washington. Without question the biggest enigma of this draft, Mallet has all the physical tools but doesn’t seem to offer much more, though he seems to be working on it since the NFL podium disaster last week. His dazzling on-field performance the following day was a good start. Still, Ryan Leaf v2.0 is not an unfair assessment.
Other notable names not in my top 34 include Rudolph, Ayers and Mike Pouncey, though I certainly wouldn’t wager on any being around at pick 35.