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Limited experience in reading defenses
Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble
It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.
The article also goes on to describe these other reasons:
- High volume of coaching changes: Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros...wont doom him but will hinder him for sure
- Coachability: the author points out that Newton has worked under some big time coaches, including Urban Meyer while at Florida, and has not really improved his mechanics, so why are NFL coaches going to magically fix this? There are also obvious question marks about his leadership and maturity.
Im not gonna be terribly upset if we draft him because I think he is an incredible talent and an amazing athlete, but people do need to make 100% sure they realize he is a work in progress, not a stud.
Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble
It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks
In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich, Matt Leinart, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers and Tim Tebow. Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.
The article also goes on to describe these other reasons:
- High volume of coaching changes: Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros...wont doom him but will hinder him for sure
- Coachability: the author points out that Newton has worked under some big time coaches, including Urban Meyer while at Florida, and has not really improved his mechanics, so why are NFL coaches going to magically fix this? There are also obvious question marks about his leadership and maturity.
Im not gonna be terribly upset if we draft him because I think he is an incredible talent and an amazing athlete, but people do need to make 100% sure they realize he is a work in progress, not a stud.
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