Why Cam Newton will struggle as a Pro

[Pinkerton Security]

Limited experience in reading defenses

Newton basically ran a one-read offense at Auburn and wasn't asked to go through the complex read progressions he'll have to go through in the NFL.
One way to illustrate this is by noting that he threw only 12 checkdown-type passes in nine games against FBS opponents. A checkdown is usually a throw of last resort at the end of the reading progression, and his low attempt volume here should be a reason for concern. At Auburn, if Newton didn't find his receiver, he usually just tucked the ball and ran. While this may have worked in college, it won't be as effective in the NFL, where linebackers will be far better suited to punish him for that decision.
His experience questions are compounded by fact that just over 20 percent of his throws against FBS teams last year were screen passes. A screen is really a rush attempt in disguise and thus doesn't call for much in the way of reading a defense.
Limited evidence of an ability to hit passes when forced to scramble

It is assumed that Newton can be a playmaker through the air when he is forced to leave the pocket. He possesses that ability, but the 2010 season offered little in the way of metric evidence of that skill.
Newton did complete 7 of 11 passes against FBS teams last year on plays in which his receivers had to adjust their routes because of his scrambling. That is slightly more than one completion every two games, but the number is also somewhat deceptive, because four of the completions came in the SEC championship game against South Carolina alone. Take those out and Newton had only three scramble completions in nine FBS contests. While his completion percentage is high, the low volume of attempts is not exactly proof positive that he is a passing threat on the run.
Comes up very short in 'The Parcells Rules' for drafting quarterbacks

In his long tenure as a successful talent evaluator, Bill Parcells came up with a set of seven criteria he used when drafting quarterbacks. These include: being a three-year starter, a senior in college, a college graduate, starting 30 games, winning 23 games, having a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 60 percent.
These are a high set of standards, but quarterbacks who meet them have superb NFL track records.
For proof, consider the first-round draft picks who have met those criteria in the BCS era (1999-2010): Byron Leftwich (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=4465), Matt Leinart (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=9596), Eli Manning (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5526), Chad Pennington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=2149), Philip Rivers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5529) and Tim Tebow (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=13200). Four of those quarterbacks have led their teams to playoff berths, and one has won the Super Bowl.
Now check out how Newton stacks up in these areas: He is a one-year FBS starter and a junior who did not graduate college. He started 14 games, had 14 wins, posted a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion rate of 65.4 percent.
That means he meets only two of the seven criteria -- the touchdown-to-interception ratio and the completion percentage. He falls far short of meeting the Parcells bar.


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?id=6192612


The article also goes on to describe these other reasons:
- High volume of coaching changes: Newton has had four offensive coordinators in his six high school and college seasons. That number will increase to five in seven seasons once he reaches the pros...wont doom him but will hinder him for sure
- Coachability: the author points out that Newton has worked under some big time coaches, including Urban Meyer while at Florida, and has not really improved his mechanics, so why are NFL coaches going to magically fix this? There are also obvious question marks about his leadership and maturity.


Im not gonna be terribly upset if we draft him because I think he is an incredible talent and an amazing athlete, but people do need to make 100% sure they realize he is a work in progress, not a stud.

[ddaryl]

RC Fishers statistical analysis article on Newton

http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Newton_2-24-2011.htm



It's not that high pass attempts equals success, if so Graham Harrell or David Klinger would be the best QBs ever. It's just that "mobile" QB's seem to throw less (makes sense, they run a lot more), but that focus on their running ability may open college defenses up so much that it allows these "mobile" QBs to inflate their passing stats on a per pass basis. Rarely, very rarely...almost never has the highly mobile QB ever become an elite NFL passing QB. Cam Newton may be the next "mobile" QB to fall into that trap.

[Philagape]

If people want an outstanding athlete with a live arm who's a dual threat, why not Colin Kaepernick? He's much better value in the third round (if he lasts that long) than Newton is in the first.
Kaepernick is the only QB ever to have 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 rushing.
He has good intangibles, and unlike Newton, he's a four-year starter.

[Ebenezer]

Friends don't let friends draft Newton at 3.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Pffffft, who cares? He's a QB, QB's make your team win superbowls, we wanna win Superbowls. Cam is the obvious choice as he is a QB.

[ChristopherWalken]

If people want an outstanding athlete with a live arm who's a dual threat, why not Colin Kaepernick? He's much better value in the third round (if he lasts that long) than Newton is in the first.
Kaepernick is the only QB ever to have 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 rushing.
He has good intangibles, and unlike Newton, he's a four-year starter.

I'm with ya.

I'd much rather gamble a 3rd or even a 2nd for Kaepernick than gamble a 1st for Newton and bypass a guy like Dareus or Bowers.

[justasportsfan]

If people want an outstanding athlete with a live arm who's a dual threat, why not Colin Kaepernick? He's much better value in the third round (if he lasts that long) than Newton is in the first.
Kaepernick is the only QB ever to have 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 rushing.
He has good intangibles, and unlike Newton, he's a four-year starter.


IF Kaepernick was the Auburn qb, IMO he would have done just as well as Newton.

[DraftBoy]

IF Kaepernick was the Auburn qb, IMO he would have done just as well as Newton.

Cant buy that.

One of the reason Auburn was so successful was due to Newton's ability to convert down and short with his legs. It was almost impossible to drive him backwards or just take him down with a simple tackle. He almost always fell forward to gain that needed 2-3 yards.

Kap is not the same way as a runner.

[justasportsfan]

10000 yards passing and 4000 yards rushing, I could see the playcalls made to suit his abilities just like with Cam .

[Figster]

A league Built for Cam Newton

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=sprow_chris&id=6191189&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft2011%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dsprow_chris%26id%3d6191189

[dasaybz]

So since he was asked at Auburn to play to his strengths, and do whatever it took to win games, it won't equate to the NFL? I don't see how this means he won't be able to make the reads or play a pro style offense. Also, NFL teams get burned all the time by scrambling QBs tucking and running if nobody is open.

Now, if it was shown that Newton was consistently having problem running a pro style offense, and was getting picked off left and right because he couldn't read a defense, that's another story. But to try and say a guy won't be a good NFL player because he wasn't asked to do certain things in college is just a huge assumption. I hate when these articles are written factual, when it just truly isn't.

[psubills62]

A league Built for Cam Newton

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=sprow_chris&id=6191189&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft2011%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dsprow_chris%26id%3d6191189

Media-driven, you mean?

[Extremebillsfan247]

First, experience isn't something your born with. Experience happens over time. Second, if your questioning the offense he played in, you have to throw Gabbert in that conversation for playing in the same kind of offense Newton did. What's even worse for Gabbert is that he has been in that system longer than Newton has. It could potentially take longer for Gabbert to undo the process he has become so accustomed to. Finally, Newton did more with one season at Auburn playing against some of the top teams in the country than it takes most college QBs 3 seasons to accomplish. That's why all 32 teams were at his pro day. Not a lot of 1 year QBs get that kind of respect, trust me on that.

[Pinkerton Security]

So since he was asked at Auburn to play to his strengths, and do whatever it took to win games, it won't equate to the NFL? I don't see how this means he won't be able to make the reads or play a pro style offense. Also, NFL teams get burned all the time by scrambling QBs tucking and running if nobody is open.

Now, if it was shown that Newton was consistently having problem running a pro style offense, and was getting picked off left and right because he couldn't read a defense, that's another story. But to try and say a guy won't be a good NFL player because he wasn't asked to do certain things in college is just a huge assumption. I hate when these articles are written factual, when it just truly isn't.

Its been shown with somewhat empirical evidence that guys who run Pro-style offenses instead of relying on their athletic ability become better QB's...take a look at nearly all of the best QB's in the NFL for evidence, other than Vick, and hes definitely the exception to the rule. Its obviously not a given, I'd just prefer to use a high pick on a proven stud with a high ceiling than draft a guy with a little bit higher ceiling but a comparatively high chance of turning out to be a total bust. Again, I said I wouldnt be horribly upset if we drafted Newton but I just think hes the epitome of Boom-or-Bust and Id rather take a more sure thing at this point.

[Pinkerton Security]

First, experience isn't something your born with. Experience happens over time. Second, if your questioning the offense he played in, you have to throw Gabbert in that conversation for playing in the same kind of offense Newton did. What's even worse for Gabbert is that he has been in that system longer than Newton has. It could potentially take longer for Gabbert to undo the process he has become so accustomed to. Finally, Newton did more with one season at Auburn playing against some of the top teams in the country than it takes most college QBs 3 seasons to accomplish. That's why all 32 teams were at his pro day. Not a lot of 1 year QBs get that kind of respect, trust me on that.

I dont want Gabbert in round 1 either, in fact I'd rather have Newton at 3 than Gabbert.

Also, just because someone is an exceptional 1 year wonder doesnt make him anything other than a 1 year wonder...there is no disputing the fact that Newton, as a passer, is extremely raw and isnt ready to throw against NFL defenses right now.

[better days]

A league Built for Cam Newton

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=sprow_chris&id=6191189&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft2011%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dsprow_chris%26id%3d6191189

All that work & the best he could do was 50 of 60. That is with NO DEFENSE rushing Cam or covering the receivers. NOT GOOD ENOUGH. The NFL is a passing league, not a running league.

[dasaybz]

Its been shown with somewhat empirical evidence that guys who run Pro-style offenses instead of relying on their athletic ability become better QB's...take a look at nearly all of the best QB's in the NFL for evidence, other than Vick, and hes definitely the exception to the rule. Its obviously not a given, I'd just prefer to use a high pick on a proven stud with a high ceiling than draft a guy with a little bit higher ceiling but a comparatively high chance of turning out to be a total bust. Again, I said I wouldnt be horribly upset if we drafted Newton but I just think hes the epitome of Boom-or-Bust and Id rather take a more sure thing at this point.
I'm not sold on drafting Newton either. However, there's really nobody else in the NFL to compare him to, other than Vick, and Vick has had a very solid career.

I just hate how these articles are written though, like there's some secret formula out there saying that Newton just doesn't add up. The guy is a physical freak, he puts in the work, and seems to have the right attitude about winning. I'm going to be curious to see how his career ends up.

[dasaybz]

Plus, I think Newton would be a great fit in Gailey's offense. The Bills basically run a spread offense anyways. The potential that we would possibly have on offense with Newton, Spiller, and Stevie is certainly intriguing.

[better days]

I'm not sold on drafting Newton either. However, there's really nobody else in the NFL to compare him to, other than Vick, and Vick has had a very solid career.

I just hate how these articles are written though, like there's some secret formula out there saying that Newton just doesn't add up. The guy is a physical freak, he puts in the work, and seems to have the right attitude about winning. I'm going to be curious to see how his career ends up.

Until Vick came to the Eagles, his passing was very mediocre. I don't see Newton as being any better than Vince Young. So if you want that kind of QB, just sign Young when the Titans cut him.

[Extremebillsfan247]

I dont want Gabbert in round 1 either, in fact I'd rather have Newton at 3 than Gabbert.

Also, just because someone is an exceptional 1 year wonder doesnt make him anything other than a 1 year wonder...there is no disputing the fact that Newton, as a passer, is extremely raw and isnt ready to throw against NFL defenses right now.
There isn't a QB in this draft that is ready to step in on day one in my opinion. Would you trust Locker to run the Bills offense this year? how about Mallet, Dalton, Kaepernick? All of them have problems that wont be corrected in one offseason of OTA's and mini camps. Does that mean they aren't going to be any good? Not even the leagues best scouts know that yet. They all require the one thing your knocking Newton for, experience. No matter what offense they ran or how many years they ran it in college, college is not the NFL, just ask the pride of Notre Dame, Jimmy Clausen. JMO

[Pinkerton Security]

There isn't a QB in this draft that is ready to step in on day one in my opinion. Would you trust Locker to run the Bills offense this year? how about Mallet, Dalton, Kaepernick? All of them have problems that wont be corrected in one offseason of OTA's and mini camps. Does that mean they aren't going to be any good? Not even the leagues best scouts know that yet. They all require the one thing your knocking Newton for, experience. No matter what offense they ran or how many years they ran it in college, college is not the NFL, just ask the pride of Notre Dame, Jimmy Clausen. JMO

No i dont really want any of them honestly...I would love to have Andrew Luck somehow though haha

[X-Era]

Well that settles it. KC, RC, and the sunshine band have officially released the "facts" about how Newton will fail in the NFL.

I will be interested to read their formal instructions to the 32 NFL teams directing them not to draft him, and especially the 8 that reportedly plan to hold a private workout. They will also likely send copies to Kiper, McShay, and others letting them know that they are wrong in their assessments placing Newton in the top 10.

At least the issue is dead and we can forget about Newton since the Bills now have the facts and can close the door on drafting him.

[dasaybz]

Until Vick came to the Eagles, his passing was very mediocre. I don't see Newton as being any better than Vince Young. So if you want that kind of QB, just sign Young when the Titans cut him.
Vince Young has a very poor arm, and throws almost sideways. He's also a headcase and doesn't have the scrambling ability of Newton. I would be very very surprised if Newton's career isn't much better than Young's.

[better days]

Vince Young has a very poor arm, and throws almost sideways. He's also a headcase and doesn't have the scrambling ability of Newton. I would be very very surprised if Newton's career isn't much better than Young's.

Time will tell, but I will not be surprised at all if Newton has a career very similar to Young. Newton may have a stronger arm than Young, but I don't know that he is any more accurate than him. A strong arm without accuracy is of little use.

[Pinkerton Security]

Well that settles it. KC, RC, and the sunshine band have officially released the "facts" about how Newton will fail in the NFL.

I will be interested to read their formal instructions to the 32 NFL teams directing them not to draft him, and especially the 8 that reportedly plan to hold a private workout. They will also likely send copies to Kiper, McShay, and others letting them know that they are wrong in their assessments placing Newton in the top 10.

At least the issue is dead and we can forget about Newton since the Bills now have the facts and can close the door on drafting him.

Its not like this is the first person to speculate about the fact the Newton may struggle adjusting to the pro game...

[psubills62]

Teams will also have to consider that they pretty much won't be able to contact their draft picks, get them the playbook, etc. Development may take significantly longer this year than other years, and thus developmental prospects may be an even riskier investment.

[Tatonka]

If people want an outstanding athlete with a live arm who's a dual threat, why not Colin Kaepernick? He's much better value in the third round (if he lasts that long) than Newton is in the first.
Kaepernick is the only QB ever to have 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 rushing.
He has good intangibles, and unlike Newton, he's a four-year starter.

amen brother.

[djjimkelly]

the nfl is not a decathlon or some olympic event

who cares that cam is a great athlete

he cant throw for ****

[X-Era]

Its not like this is the first person to speculate about the fact the Newton may struggle adjusting to the pro game...Absolutely correct. Nor will it be the last, before, during, or after the draft.

On players as polarizing as Newton, you will see comments just as polar. It's all opinion, and no one knows what will happen.

That's my point.