Blaine Gabbert...Can he throw it deep?

[DraftBoy]

Rotoworld's Evan Silve present a fantastic point today, pulled from the Miami Herald;
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6451/blaine-gabbert


Sources tell the Miami Herald that NFL teams are worried about Blaine Gabbert's completion percentage on throws of five or more yards.Gabbert's completion rate reportedly drops "dramatically" beyond five yards, and "more so than most other QBs" in the 2011 class. We've heard this criticism more than once. Gabbert's yards-per-attempt averaged ranked just eighth in the Big 12 conference last season. This will do nothing to dispel the notion that Gabbert is a media and possibly agent-created elite prospect.

Now many wil cling to the fact that his WR's sucked last season (and believe me they did), however his career number is only 7.31 ypa.

Thoughts?

[TacklingDummy]

Makes Trent Edwards look like he was throwing bombs.

[justasportsfan]

thats the thing about Gabbert and Newton, too many questionmarks to be drafted at #3.

[alohabillsfan]

A good QB makes the Oline, the RB and the WR's better. Look what Fitz did for his handfull of misfit toys? Leading receiver 7th rounder, UDFA's everywhere! A LT that was another 7th rounder? QB's make them better, stop making excuses for a avg at best QB. If you have to surround him with franchise talent then he aint worth the pick and cannot be considered a franchise QB. IMHO.
P.S. He just reminds me to much of Losman in the pocket.

[Luisito23]

Just say no to Gabbert!

[trapezeus]

my first round pick needs to know how to tackle a running back. that's the only criteria that i'm following.

i don't know how many poor drafts i have in me before i throw in the towel and just become a bills fan who watches games on the TV.

[mikemac2001]

Gabbert I'll puke

Newton i don't want but his potential will lessen the rage

Draft d and get our qb next year if fitz sucks

[Saratoga Slim]

There are some franchises that would be warranted in choosing either, but I don't think this one can handle the risk of another first round disappointment - especially of the QB variety. As much as I'd like to throw the dice on finally getting a true franchise QB in here, I'll feel a lot better with just a solid, low fanfare draft that starts with a name like Marcel Dareus, Von Miller or maybe even Patrick Peterson.

[X-Era]

Rotoworld's Evan Silve present a fantastic point today, pulled from the Miami Herald;
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6451/blaine-gabbert



Now many wil cling to the fact that his WR's sucked last season (and believe me they did), however his career number is only 7.31 ypa.

Thoughts?
I think it's interesting and potentially noteworthy. I'd like to see the data. I want to see how many attempts there were at different distances.

I mean my first thought, using his 2010 numbers, and from watching him so much, is that they ran that dink and dunk offense and 72% of his completions came from under 15 yards (301 completions with 65 beyond 15 yards, and 32 beyond 25, that leaves 217 that were shorter than 15 yards). I don't think he had a lot of long throw attempts by design. When 156 of your 301 completions are 1st downs, why take lower percentage shots down field? And I think the reads were usually short with one target, if that wasn't an option, he was usually scrambling and trying to find deeper guys on the run or simply running it.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/434/1017263/passing/situational.html

That's a long way of saying that I'd like to see what he would do in situations with multiple reads and with options at several different depths. From a passing perspective, I never got a sense that he was a poor thrower when throwing long. He has the arm, and mechanics. His footwork could be better but isn't bad now. I think it's more likely that the long throws weren't usually planned and that he tried to make them on the run or under pressure... that he didn't have planned options beyond the first, short guy.

It would help to see the data and get a sense for completions vs. attempts at those distances.

[Night Train]

Thoughts?

Yes.

Don't draft him. Go Defense.

[Prov401]

Below 50% cmp% on 3rd downs...

6.7 yards per attempt...

And some people here want this clown...

Nix, please show us you aren't that stupid.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Rotoworld's Evan Silve present a fantastic point today, pulled from the Miami Herald;
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6451/blaine-gabbert



Now many wil cling to the fact that his WR's sucked last season (and believe me they did), however his career number is only 7.31 ypa.

Thoughts?
The answer to the original question is yes, he can throw it deep. He's just not very accurate as your article points out. His accuracy with the deep ball isn't a new discovery though, and has been known for some time. Even I knew about it since his name first started popping up on this message board as a possible future Bills QB, and I'm no scout. It sticks out in his stats like a sore thumb. But, you could make the point that stats don't tell you the whole story, and like you say, he didn't exactly have great receivers to throw to. You could also blame it on the offensive scheme since there are many different variations of a spread offense.

Would I still take him knowing that? yes. Would I take him at 3? no. But I wouldn't take Newton at 3 either, and I think he is very talented. However, because the talent level at QB in this years draft is so thin, teams are almost being forced to either roll the dice on one of these QBs, or move on, and take a less talented QB in the later rounds who could probably start for you, but wont be good enough to get you to a post season. But that's my opinion.

[tampabay25690]

DB
You know how I feel since we were just talking about him this AM....
Im still trying to figure out how he is a 1st round talent....

They talked about this all day on NFL radio....

[stuckincincy]

Rotoworld's Evan Silve present a fantastic point today, pulled from the Miami Herald;
http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6451/blaine-gabbert



Now many wil cling to the fact that his WR's sucked last season (and believe me they did), however his career number is only 7.31 ypa.

Thoughts?


I'm not a big fan of Gabbert - but here's the historical NFL leaders in ypa:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/7_1580_Best_passers_in_history%3A_Yards_Per_Attempt.html

[DraftBoy]

I'm not a big fan of Gabbert - but here's the historical NFL leaders in ypa:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/7_1580_Best_passers_in_history%3A_Yards_Per_Attempt.html

Comparing NFL numbers to college though isn't going to be a fair comparison. College numbers (especially passing ones) should be far higher in college.

[stuckincincy]

Comparing NFL numbers to college though isn't going to be a fair comparison. College numbers (especially passing ones) should be far higher in college.


Well - that's stats for ya.

Does college performance predict pro performance? Sometimes it does, sometimes (mostly) it doesn't.

Personally, I like Dalton. I find him a gritty player who finds a way to win. In college, at least.

2010 Ypa of 9.04, 27 tds, 6 ints, 8 sacks, longest completion - 93 yd, 166.48 passer rating.

[cookie G]

Below 50% cmp% on 3rd downs...


Using the cfbstats link, I did a quick comparison to others to see if their completion percentage went that low on 3rd down. (it takes about 5 minutes).

Among those I checked:

Bradford
Mallett
Todd Reesing of Kansas
Chase Daniel
McCoy
Stafford
Freeman


No one else had such a drop in percentage. And Gabbert did basically the same thing both years.

That's not a good sign.

Gabbert's become a product of the NFL Network.