Buffalo's pick at 3 according to one AFC Scout

[X-Era]

Todd McShay sat down with a NFC and AFC scout and asked them some questions on the draft. Here's what the AFC scout came up with about Buffalo at 3:

AFC scout: "For me it was Blaine Gabbert (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27028/blaine-gabbert) to Buffalo at No. 3. The upside and possible reward are higher with Cam Newton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27308/cam-newton) if everything comes together for him, but he's a bigger risk (and off the board), and I give Gabbert the edge at quarterback anyway.
"The more difficult decision was taking Gabbert over Von Miller (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27009/von-miller). The Bills need an impact pass-rusher almost as much as they need a quarterback and I actually grade Miller higher than Gabbert on my overall board. At the end of the day, though, the quarterback is the most important factor if a team is going to win it all, and Gabbert has all the tools to become a franchise-type quarterback."


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=6344035

[mikemac2001]

Blaine gabbert

Puke

Fix the d please

[X-Era]

Blaine gabbert

Puke

Fix the d please

Not mutually exclusive.

[Thurmal]

Good offensive and defensive lines are the most important factor if a team is going to win it all.

You can win a Super Bowl with a halfway decent QB if your o-line is awesome and you have a solid D. You don't necessarily need a future HOF'er.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

i like gabbert and hope we draft him
that does not make me stupid or whatever
I just do believe that it all starts with the qb and we need one
ill not loos sleep over any pick though since we will still suck for at least 3 more years

[split71]

I disagree with this scout...I think out of all the names mentioned at 3, he's towards the bottom of the list.

[whkfc]

Yeah this team doesnt need a frqnchise qb. Fitzpatrick is more than capable of getting us to the promise land. 7-9 forever

[X-Era]

Good offensive and defensive lines are the most important factor if a team is going to win it all.

You can win a Super Bowl with a halfway decent QB if your o-line is awesome and you have a solid D. You don't necessarily need a future HOF'er.It isn't black and white IMO.

I don't think winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo requires a HOF'er... although the last time we sniffed it we had one. But I also see Fitz as a limiting factor regardless of how good we may get on defense. I think we need the foresight to predict accurately where he can and can't take us and work toward a better solution if the answer isn't a Super Bowl win.

I just haven't seen enough from Fitz to be convinced that he's all we need at the position. And if the Bills convince themselves they could be drafting that guy, they should do it.

Even if it's a risk, it's the method we have chosen for building our winner... risk is part of the equation regardless of the position.

[Mad Max]

Todd McShay sat down with a NFC and AFC scout and asked them some questions on the draft. Here's what the AFC scout came up with about Buffalo at 3:

AFC scout: "For me it was Blaine Gabbert (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27028/blaine-gabbert) to Buffalo at No. 3. The upside and possible reward are higher with Cam Newton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27308/cam-newton) if everything comes together for him, but he's a bigger risk (and off the board), and I give Gabbert the edge at quarterback anyway.
"The more difficult decision was taking Gabbert over Von Miller (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27009/von-miller). The Bills need an impact pass-rusher almost as much as they need a quarterback and I actually grade Miller higher than Gabbert on my overall board. At the end of the day, though, the quarterback is the most important factor if a team is going to win it all, and Gabbert has all the tools to become a franchise-type quarterback."


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=6344035

ESPN panel just talked about how Arizona is all over Blaine Gabberts nuts. The Bidwells apparently went to watch him workout. This is great news, we may have some leverage now to drop down the few spots some of us would prefer.

Drop down a few slots, pick up a 2nd rounder and do some damage. We can then take a Defensive stud in the first (Quinn, Fairley, Bowers), a TE (Rudoplh, Stocker) and OL (Pouncey, Sherrod) in the second. Maybe Golem (Kaepernick) in the third.

Best available from there on..we're much improved.

[baalworship]

Von Miller or Blaine Gabbert will be the pick if the draft goes

1.Newton
2.Dareus

If we're going to roll the dice might as well do it with a QB over a linebacker. But if we pass on Gabbert I won't be upset. Afterall, it's Nix and Gailey's job on the line and I trust them to make an informed choice.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Yeah this team doesnt need a frqnchise qb. Fitzpatrick is more than capable of getting us to the promise land. 7-9 forever
That, of course, assumes Blaine Gabbert is a franchise QB. Most indications are he's not-- in fact, the suggestions I've seen is that he's pretty much Mr. Mediocrity.


ESPN panel just talked about how Arizona is all over Blaine Gabberts nuts. Arizona, the same people that drafted Matt Leinart at #10. I wouldn't exactly trust their judgment.

[T-Long]

That AFC scout must have been me! Gabbert at #3

[mrbojanglezs]

ESPN panel just talked about how Arizona is all over Blaine Gabberts nuts. The Bidwells apparently went to watch him workout. This is great news, we may have some leverage now to drop down the few spots some of us would prefer.

Drop down a few slots, pick up a 2nd rounder and do some damage. We can then take a Defensive stud in the first (Quinn, Fairley, Bowers), a TE (Rudoplh, Stocker) and OL (Pouncey, Sherrod) in the second. Maybe Golem (Kaepernick) in the third.

Best available from there on..we're much improved.

perfect scenario if we can do that, pick up another 2nd and still take miller or whoever

[TigerJ]

It's not my choice, but I understand it. In fact I've said, if Gailey and Nix are convinced that the QB who is still available at #3 (between Newton and Gabbert) is going to be a franchise type QB, they should pick him. I've also said, if they do and they're wrong, they'll pay with their jobs.

[Mad Max]

That, of course, assumes Blaine Gabbert is a franchise QB. Most indications are he's not-- in fact, the suggestions I've seen is that he's pretty much Mr. Mediocrity.

Arizona, the same people that drafted Matt Leinart at #10. I wouldn't exactly trust their judgment.

Who's trusting Arizona? I said THEY are reported to like him..which opens up the possibility of us trading out of our spot so THEY can draft him.

[justasportsfan]

Yeah this team doesnt need a frqnchise qb. Fitzpatrick is more than capable of getting us to the promise land. 7-9 forever
Fitz may not be the qb to take us to the promise land but is Gabbert the one to without a D ? If the D stops everyone from rushing, the O will be on the field often enough to score more points .

[Bmax]

Todd McShay sat down with a NFC and AFC scout and asked them some questions on the draft. Here's what the AFC scout came up with about Buffalo at 3:

AFC scout: "For me it was Blaine Gabbert (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27028/blaine-gabbert) to Buffalo at No. 3. The upside and possible reward are higher with Cam Newton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27308/cam-newton) if everything comes together for him, but he's a bigger risk (and off the board), and I give Gabbert the edge at quarterback anyway.
"The more difficult decision was taking Gabbert over Von Miller (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27009/von-miller). The Bills need an impact pass-rusher almost as much as they need a quarterback and I actually grade Miller higher than Gabbert on my overall board. At the end of the day, though, the quarterback is the most important factor if a team is going to win it all, and Gabbert has all the tools to become a franchise-type quarterback."


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=6344035


I was talking about this with my cousin today we both feel the Bills will go Gabbert...

Bmax...

[Novacane]

Question for those that like Gabbert. What is your answer to the critics who say he is inaccurate on everything but short throws?

[psubills62]

Todd McShay sat down with a NFC and AFC scout and asked them some questions on the draft. Here's what the AFC scout came up with about Buffalo at 3:

AFC scout: "For me it was Blaine Gabbert (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27028/blaine-gabbert) to Buffalo at No. 3. The upside and possible reward are higher with Cam Newton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27308/cam-newton) if everything comes together for him, but he's a bigger risk (and off the board), and I give Gabbert the edge at quarterback anyway.
"The more difficult decision was taking Gabbert over Von Miller (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27009/von-miller). The Bills need an impact pass-rusher almost as much as they need a quarterback and I actually grade Miller higher than Gabbert on my overall board. At the end of the day, though, the quarterback is the most important factor if a team is going to win it all, and Gabbert has all the tools to become a franchise-type quarterback."


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&id=6344035
After reading that section and briefly skimming the rest, that sounds like it's simply the scout's opinion on who they should take, not based on anything they've heard coming out of Buffalo.

Interesting, but at the same time, all scouts see things differently. I still don't think it will be Gabbert. The Bills have shown at least twice that they can pass on the "popular" QB pick if they don't think he's worth it. I think they'll do so again, because there will be a number of guys who are much more worth the #3 pick sitting there.

[YardRat]

The Bills need an impact pass-rusher almost as much as they need a quarterback

Epic fail...We need an impact pass rusher/defensive stud far more badly than a quarterback.

[X-Era]

Question for those that like Gabbert. What is your answer to the critics who say he is inaccurate on everything but short throws?How many throws did he make that were long or intermediate as a function of how many throws he made overall? Mizzou's offense was a dink and dunk spread offense where he thrived at getting 1st downs and moving the chains.

I took a shot at analyzing this in this post:

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showpost.php?p=3438252&postcount=9

Heres my thoughts on that:

I mean my first thought, using his 2010 numbers, and from watching him so much, is that they ran that dink and dunk offense and 72% of his completions came from under 15 yards (301 completions with 65 beyond 15 yards, and 32 beyond 25, that leaves 217 that were shorter than 15 yards). I don't think he had a lot of long throw attempts by design. When 156 of your 301 completions are 1st downs, why take lower percentage shots down field? And I think the reads were usually short with one target, if that wasn't an option, he was usually scrambling and trying to find deeper guys on the run or simply running it.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/...tuational.html (http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/434/1017263/passing/situational.html)

That's a long way of saying that I'd like to see what he would do in situations with multiple reads and with options at several different depths. From a passing perspective, I never got a sense that he was a poor thrower when throwing long. He has the arm, and mechanics. His footwork could be better but isn't bad now. I think it's more likely that the long throws weren't usually planned and that he tried to make them on the run or under pressure... that he didn't have planned options beyond the first, short guy.

It would help to see the data and get a sense for completions vs. attempts at those distances.

-------------------------------------------

As with all arguments this late in the game, my sense is that people have their minds pretty much made up and if you're not a fan of drafting a QB at 3, it won;t matter much what I or anyone else might say.

Here's an interesting opinion that I noticed today:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/09000d5d81f24692/Gabbert-vs-past-1st-rd-QBs?module=HP_video

[Bangarang]

Need I remind everyone that the Colts won the Super Bowl with the worst run defense in the league because of their QB.

[Novacane]

So you think it was more a product of the system. That's a fair answer. I want the Bills to go defense but would not hate a Gabbert pick.

[YardRat]

Need I remind everyone that the Colts won the Super Bowl with the worst run defense in the league because of their QB.

Bull****.

Manning got them to the playoffs with the worst regular season run defense, but without the Colt D stepping up, BIG TIME, in the playoffs it would have just been another early exit for Indy.

[psubills62]

Bull****.

Manning got them to the playoffs with the worst regular season run defense, but without the Colt D stepping up, BIG TIME, in the playoffs it would have just been another early exit for Indy.
Yeah, thanks to some guy named Bob Sanders.

[psubills62]

Besides, does anyone really think Gabbert will be on the level of Peyton Manning, or even close? The idea of that is just ludicrous to me.

[justasportsfan]

Need I remind everyone that the Colts won the Super Bowl with the worst run defense in the league because of their QB.
actually Peyton carried them throughout the regular season with a horrible run D.Their D picked it up in the playoffs especially the run D.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/team?seasonId=2006&seasonType=POST&Submit=Go

[ServoBillieves]

Which new pass rusher on the Jets, Patsies and/or Fish is beating the RT and interior line to beat the hell out of Gabbert in his rookie season?

Who is blocking for this "possible franchise QB?"

So many people want answers at name positions right now, and are so, so, SO damn stupid. I will bite my tongue, eat my words, and give up mad ZB's if we draft one of the mediocre QB's first round. If we want to shove mediocrity in to the 3rd position, then this organization has proven it's point to me that it does not want to win.

I've spent over 10 years trusting the Front Office, and that FO has not provided. A lack of free agency has sucked ass, but at the same time, each of these players have done this to themselves.

Ugh... whatever.

[X-Era]

Bull****.

Manning got them to the playoffs with the worst regular season run defense, but without the Colt D stepping up, BIG TIME, in the playoffs it would have just been another early exit for Indy.I would agree with that but it's fair to say that Indy didn't win a SB because of defense and with only an average quarterback. Other teams have done that, but not Indy.

[X-Era]

Which new pass rusher on the Jets, Patsies and/or Fish is beating the RT and interior line to beat the hell out of Gabbert in his rookie season?

Who is blocking for this "possible franchise QB?"

So many people want answers at name positions right now, and are so, so, SO damn stupid. I will bite my tongue, eat my words, and give up mad ZB's if we draft one of the mediocre QB's first round. If we want to shove mediocrity in to the 3rd position, then this organization has proven it's point to me that it does not want to win.

I've spent over 10 years trusting the Front Office, and that FO has not provided. A lack of free agency has sucked ass, but at the same time, each of these players have done this to themselves.

Ugh... whatever.What player do you suggest we draft at 3 that will block for our current quarterback? To me there isn't a single OT worthy of the 3 pick. And that means our 3 pick has nothing to do with the OT spot... were in the same situation regardless of who we take at 3.

[alohabillsfan]

Gabbert at 3 is a bust, mark it down, he is nothing special.

[OpIv37]

Not mutually exclusive.

yes they are, unless you happen to like the 27-year revolving door rebuilding plan.

This is the same **** we always do. Right now, we have a decent O and a terrible D. We'll keep staffing our D with mid-round draft picks and waiting for them to develop. By the time they do, McGee, Kyle Williams and half the O will be either washed up or gone, then we'll try to replace them with mid-round draft picks and while we're waiting for them to develop, the guys we drafted this year will be gone... rinse, repeat.

At some point, we need an immediate infusion of talent. Rebuilding is supposed to be a process. The Bills have turned it into a self-perpetuating cycle.

[Luisito23]

Blame Gabbert would be a huge disappointment for me...And I don't trust anyone in management to do the right thing.

[alohabillsfan]

yes they are, unless you happen to like the 27-year revolving door rebuilding plan.

This is the same **** we always do. Right now, we have a decent O and a terrible D. We'll keep staffing our D with mid-round draft picks and waiting for them to develop. By the time they do, McGee, Kyle Williams and half the O will be either washed up or gone, then we'll try to replace them with mid-round draft picks and while we're waiting for them to develop, the guys we drafted this year will be gone... rinse, repeat.

At some point, we need an immediate infusion of talent. Rebuilding is supposed to be a process. The Bills have turned it into a self-perpetuating cycle.


Nailed it!

I agree 100%. I would love for the Bills to use every draft pick on DEFENSE or Oline. No to QB, WR, RB, TE, K, P, or special teams demon.

[Dr. Lecter]

Nailed it!

I agree 100%. I would love for the Bills to use every draft pick on DEFENSE or Oline. No to QB, WR, RB, TE, K, P, or special teams demon.
A TE is a pretty big need.

And any position in the later rounds is fine.

[Dr. Lecter]

BTW, one thing that Nix has been very consistent about is that the 3rd pick needs to be a starter. He has also said that Fitz is the starter this year. He also has talked about improving the defense.

While it is possible that he is feeding us a line of ****, I don't think he would do it is such an obvious manner.

I just don't see a QB at #3. I really think it is Dareus or Miller, with an outside shot of a Jordan or Watt maybe after a trade if there is a willing partner.

[jamze132]

If Nix and Gailey want to be in Buffalo 3 years from now, they better take the safe pick and take Von Miller. Obviously Darius is the pick if available but they shouldn't even be gambling on a guy like friggin' Blaine Gabbert who no one on this board even heard of before a few months ago outside of some draft nerds, who still didn't rank this guy very high.

[trapezeus]

how many of the games last year were a function of just piss poor defense?

how many times did the bills score over 20 points and walked away with a loss? How many times have they let guys run for absurd numbers like 200 in a game?

QB isn't the issue. i get that fitz isn't glitzy and glamorous, but he did what was asked of him. What did the defense do? Nothing.

[Philagape]

If Nix and Gailey want to be in Buffalo 3 years from now, they better take the safe pick and take Von Miller. Obviously Darius is the pick if available but they shouldn't even be gambling on a guy like friggin' Blaine Gabbert who no one on this board even heard of before a few months ago outside of some draft nerds, who still didn't rank this guy very high.

Considering the way he was used in college and his rather one-dimensional skill set, Miller is far from a safe pick.

[better days]

Considering the way he was used in college and his rather one-dimensional skill set, Miller is far from a safe pick.

We'll see about that. It would not surprise me to see Miller be the defensive rookie of the year.

[YardRat]

I would agree with that but it's fair to say that Indy didn't win a SB because of defense and with only an average quarterback. Other teams have done that, but not Indy.

Granted Manning isn't an average QB...in the regular season. In the post season, he is.

[Bill Cody]

Since we're all speculating, I don't think we're in love with Gabbert. That's just a feeling based on next to nothing other than reading the tea leaves when Nix and Gailey have spoken. And if the draft goes Newton1 Dareus 2 as I suspect my money would be on a trade down. A team that wants Gabbert or Peterson will want to move up. And Miller is not a top 3 pick IMO. So my guess is we don't make a pick at 3.

[PTI]

Draft him and start him day 1.

[jamze132]

Considering the way he was used in college and his rather one-dimensional skill set, Miller is far from a safe pick.
More safe than Gabbert.