Draft- QB situation

[X-Era]

There is some noise about how may QB's may go in round 1.

By my estimation, that number should only be 2.

However, I'm hearing numbers like 5 or even 6. Personally, I think that's nuts and don't see anymore than 3, or maybe 4.

But, If the number is 5 or 6 and the Bills hope to get one in the 2nd round, they may not address it early at all. Some of you may jump up and down with joy. But those of us who don't think Fitz is any better than average will feel like we will then go into the next year with QB as one of our top needs again. Because, we won't feel like the 6th or 7th best QB is much of a legit prospect as our long term answer. Obviously a player may over achieve, but it's far from likely. for those of us wanting the most legit answer this year, a QB at 3 makes sense. Because if you wait (under this scenario, you are way down on your list by your next pick).

And, if you think that player is going to go at 4, 5, 6, or 7 overall It's not a reach to take him at 3... that comment is based on where they will go, not where you think they should go. The league sets the value, not the scouts or fans.

If you think only 2 will go in the 1st, you could wait until the 2nd and have a decent selection of guys with a good chance to make it. The value at that point, if you skipped it round 1, is better where you get pick of the litter of your 3rd ranked guy. That said, the rankings of the top two could easily be the same which makes either Newton or Gabbert a viable option at 3.

One quick note:

If we don't add a legit prospect this year, Fitz will be our 2011 starter and will go into his FA year as our 2 year starter... Starting pay is between 7 and 10 mill per year for a QB. He should and will ask that. If we choose not to pay it, we have no starter in 2012, and go into next years draft with a monstrous and transparent need. And (using our plan for building our team) will end up with a rookie as our starting QB with no time to groom him from the bench.

We can talk trades for a legit QB but that just doesn't seem like a real option under the Nix regime.

[Luisito23]

It's crazy how many teams are gonna reach for pure desperation, and need...I'm hoping it's not us, but you know how it goes. :wtf:

[Ginger Vitis]

Basically what you are saying is the Bills should take Blaine Gabbert at 3?

[X-Era]

It's crazy how many teams are gonna reach for pure desperation, and need...I'm hoping it's not us, but you know how it goes. :wtf:QB is the most reached for position IMO.

We pick at 3. If we "reach" by taking a QB that we think will go before even pick 10... that's not much of a reach at all.

Drafting a QB will always be a risk and probably more so than any other position. If that's your only method for building your team (like it is for us according to Nix), you're stuck dealing with the risk... and at that point I want the best prospect I can get... Considering that pick will likely never be #1 overall, you're not talking about a sure thing.

[X-Era]

Basically what you are saying is the Bills should take Blaine Gabbert at 3?If you came to that conclusion, I'm saying it has merit.

As I have said over and over, I am fine with many different players at 3. But, I have no problem with Gabbert or Newton at 3.

[Prov401]

Some are blind and don't realize that Ryan Mallett is without question the best QB in this draft. He can make any throw there is to make. His arm strength and accuracy are both there. Teams have taken notice that he has had the best combine, and pro day of any of the top QB's taken when it comes to throwing the football. Mallett's touch is crazy good. Some are still skeptical of unfounded character issues that all of his teammates and coaches have never once brought up. But I'm sure GM's will come to their own conclusions. He satisfies the QB rule many here all of a sudden live by.

So, there will definitely be at least 3 QB's taken in the first round, and I wouldn't be shocked if Mallett is selected before cutie pie Gabbert.'

Also, many teams have taken a liking to Jake Locker, most notably the Titans. I don't think they take him at 8, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade back into the first round to select him.

I think 4 QB's go in the first round. (Newton, Mallett, Gabbert, Locker).

[Prov401]

Also, I'm still confused as to why people on here want Blaine Gabbert. Sell him to me, I'm begging ya.

Below 48% cmp% on 3rd downs...

6.7 yards per attempt...

Jimmy Clausen had better numbers coming out of college.

A spread offense, and this guy barley gets over 3,000 yards passing. I thought we were over the dink and dunk QB's here in Buffalo?

Oh....

6.7 yards per attempt.

[X-Era]

Some are blind and don't realize that Ryan Mallett is without question the best QB in this draft. He can make any throw there is to make. His arm strength and accuracy are both there. Teams have taken notice that he has had the best combine, and pro day of any of the top QB's taken when it comes to throwing the football. Mallett's touch is crazy good. Some are still skeptical of unfounded character issues that all of his teammates and coaches have never once brought up. But I'm sure GM's will come to their own conclusions. He satisfies the QB rule many here all of a sudden live by.

So, there will definitely be at least 3 QB's taken in the first round, and I wouldn't be shocked if Mallett is selected before cutie pie Gabbert.'

Also, many teams have taken a liking to Jake Locker, most notably the Titans. I don't think they take him at 8, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade back into the first round to select him.

I think 4 QB's go in the first round. (Newton, Mallett, Gabbert, Locker).I don't think 4 QB's in the 1st is crazy... as I've said. I don't think that it should go that way, but it could.

I will tell you now that, IMO, Mallett over Gabbert is crazy. Obviously I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[X-Era]

Also, I'm still confused as to why people on here want Blaine Gabbert. Sell him to me, I'm begging ya.

Below 48% cmp% on 3rd downs...

6.7 yards per attempt...

Jimmy Clausen had better numbers coming out of college.

A spread offense, and this guy barley gets over 3,000 yards passing. I thought we were over the dink and dunk QB's here in Buffalo?

Oh....

6.7 yards per attempt.You're hen picking numbers, I won't play that game.

I have watched him a lot and I like everything he brings. I won't judge his rank based on what we think we can read into his numbers. That's a part of it, but I like what I actually see from him on the field way more.

Forget what you think my opinion is worth for a second... tell me why so many think he should be ranked so high... are they all crazy? I mean what motivates McShay, Mayock, and Kiper to make such lofty rankings of him? And if you think everyone is crazy, what counter-argument do you bring that makes them look nuts?

[Prov401]

I don't think 4 QB's in the 1st is crazy... as I've said. I don't think that it should go that way, but it could.

I will tell you now that, IMO, Mallett over Gabbert is crazy. Obviously I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

I respect your opinions, and I do believe Gabbert will get selected over Mallett. But, it wouldn't shock me if Gabbert fell.

To me, Gabbert is set up for failure. He has a ton of pressure on him, and to be honest, he isn't that good. To put it this way, I've yet to find a highlight or video that has made me go.. HOLY S%#$ we need to draft this guy!!! And sitting there with the 3rd pick in the draft, and a pick that hopefully only comes around once for us, you need to have that feeling about a player. That's just me.

Ryan Mallett has steadily improved every year. He has his pros and cons as well. To me, he is without question the best passer among any QB's in this draft. His 40 time was definitely a disaster, however, Tom Brady's 40 time was almost just as bad. I'm in no way saying Mallett will go on to have a career like Brady's, but I think we have to realize that pocket awareness and 40 time are two totally different things. Mallett will absolutely need a good O-Line to succeed in this league, like Brady has had his entire career.

With all that said, I still believe Mallett will have a better career than Gabbert. I see Mallett going to the Vikings at 12, and Gabbert is just a mystery to me. I think San fran and Tennessee are two big wild cards because I think Gabbert is going to fall. Obviously, I could be wrong.

[Prov401]

You're hen picking numbers, I won't play that game.

I have watched him a lot and I like everything he brings. I won't judge his rank based on what we think we can read into his numbers. That's a part of it, but I like what I actually see from him on the field way more.

Forget what you think my opinion is worth for a second... tell me why so many think he should be ranked so high... are they all crazy? I mean what motivates McShay, Mayock, and Kiper to make such lofty rankings of him? And if you think everyone is crazy, what counter-argument do you bring that makes them look nuts?

Those same guys also had Clausen going in the first and being a great QB.

[X-Era]

To me, Gabbert is set up for failure. He has a ton of pressure on him, and to be honest, he isn't that good. To put it this way, I've yet to find a highlight or video that has made me go.. HOLY S%#$ we need to draft this guy!!! And sitting there with the 3rd pick in the draft, and a pick that hopefully only comes around once for us, you need to have that feeling about a player. That's just me.

I actually agree. It was hard to find video of his highlights out there. I had gone through and looked for the plays that I thought really stood out and really didn't find much at all on him. It really surprised me that he didn't have more of his great plays on the net.

But, I can tell you from watching him that he had plenty and the more I watched him, the more I liked him.

I've been a huge fan for many months and long before the off-season. That's based on watching him play in and play out.

[X-Era]

Those same guys also had Clausen going in the first and being a great QB.If your point is only that you can't take what the draft guru's say and etch it in stone, I agree.

And Clausen last year showed again that there may be a significant difference between what these guys see and what the teams see.

So, yes, you could see something that media or fans predicted on draft day. But, I just don't think it's likely.

[Prov401]

You're hen picking numbers, I won't play that game.

I have watched him a lot and I like everything he brings. I won't judge his rank based on what we think we can read into his numbers. That's a part of it, but I like what I actually see from him on the field way more.

Forget what you think my opinion is worth for a second... tell me why so many think he should be ranked so high... are they all crazy? I mean what motivates McShay, Mayock, and Kiper to make such lofty rankings of him? And if you think everyone is crazy, what counter-argument do you bring that makes them look nuts?

Also, I read into numbers. I think you have to. His numbers aren't sexy at all. He has trouble hitting receivers past 15 yards, and doesn't have the greatest touch.

Against four top-35 defenses (Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma State and Navy) Gabbert completed just 46.3 percent of his attempts for an average of 208.5 yards. The Tigers lost all those games.

Youtube is filled with videos of Gabbert skipping passes, running around and throwing into the flats like someone we all know.

I think Gabbert is the one guy that is picked every year by analysts alike to break out into some mega star, but in the end turns out to be average. It happens every single year.

[Prov401]

I actually agree. It was hard to find video of his highlights out there. I had gone through and looked for the plays that I thought really stood out and really didn't find much at all on him. It really surprised me that he didn't have more of his great plays on the net.

But, I can tell you from watching him that he had plenty and the more I watched him, the more I liked him.

I've been a huge fan for many months and long before the off-season. That's based on watching him play in and play out.

And honestly, I've watched one game he was in, so everything I'm basing off this kid is from the net. Not only from youtube, but from forums and other discussion boards.

I'm just not a fan. I'm not rooting for the kid to collapse, but I am rooting for the Bills to go in another direction. I just finally want a great player with our first pick. I'm sick of striking out year in and year out. I'm done with the 'potential' pick. I want immediate results. And maybe Gabbert turns into a superstar and I'll feel dumb about everything I've been saying about him... Or maybe I won't.

[X-Era]

Also, I read into numbers. I think you have to. His numbers aren't sexy at all. He has trouble hitting receivers past 15 yards, and doesn't have the greatest touch.

Against four top-35 defenses (Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma State and Navy) Gabbert completed just 46.3 percent of his attempts for an average of 208.5 yards. The Tigers lost all those games.

Youtube is filled with videos of Gabbert skipping passes, running around and throwing into the flats like someone we all know.

I think Gabbert is the one guy that is picked every year by analysts alike to break out into some mega star, but in the end turns out to be average. It happens every single year.OK, please give your link to the stats you're using.

If you want to look at this, you should also consider several other pieces of information.

I haven't seen a number that shows how many attempts he had of over 15 yards... in fact, I haven't been able to find the actual stats that show his completion % drops if it's over 15 yards. Please provide the actual stat if you find that, not just someone making that claim.

Here's what I found when I did some math on the numbers I could find:

Using his 2010 numbers, and from watching him so much, they ran that dink and dunk offense and 72% of his completions came from under 15 yards (301 completions with 65 beyond 15 yards, and 32 beyond 25, that leaves 217 that were shorter than 15 yards). I don't think he had a lot of long throw attempts by design. When 156 of your 301 completions are 1st downs, why take lower percentage shots down field? And I think the reads were usually short with one target, if that wasn't an option, he was usually scrambling and trying to find deeper guys on the run or simply running it.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/...tuational.html (http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/player/434/1017263/passing/situational.html)

I'd like to see what he would do in situations with multiple reads and with options at several different depths. From a passing perspective, I never got a sense that he was a poor thrower when throwing long. He has the arm, and mechanics. His footwork could be better but isn't bad now. I think it's more likely that the long throws weren't usually planned and that he tried to make them on the run or under pressure... that he didn't have planned options beyond the first, short guy.

--------------------------------

As to what you find as far as video of him on the internet, as I said, I don't think it's representative at all of what he can do.

Look, I am not someone that would argue for a guy when I didn't feel strongly about him. I don't tend to feel strongly about a guy unless I get a real strong feel for him by watching him a lot. I fully understand if someone doesn't want to feel great about a guy based on my gut opinion on him. But, I can tell you that I am very high on this guy based on what I have seen from him.

And, I would only offer that the numbers on guys like Rodgers and Sanchez may tell you something about how much stock we can put into that.

[X-Era]

And honestly, I've watched one game he was in, so everything I'm basing off this kid is from the net. Not only from youtube, but from forums and other discussion boards.

I'm just not a fan. I'm not rooting for the kid to collapse, but I am rooting for the Bills to go in another direction. I just finally want a great player with our first pick. I'm sick of striking out year in and year out. I'm done with the 'potential' pick. I want immediate results. And maybe Gabbert turns into a superstar and I'll feel dumb about everything I've been saying about him... Or maybe I won't.OK. I like your honesty.

I may be able to find a way to put up a full game or two from him. Maybe give him a full watch.

And I get you on wanting immediate results. IMO, your best shot at getting that in a QB prospect is to get on at #1 overall. We just won;t get that shot any time soon IMO. So then your stuck with developing a guy, yes there are exceptions, but I think we are in good shape with Gailey as a HC... I think he could make a prospect into something special.

[X-Era]

Heres a link to the Iowa game... his last in college.

http://espn.go.com/espn3/player?id=100472&league=NCAAF

It's ESPN 360, I hope you can view it.

[YardRat]

I would expect three QB's to go in the first round, and hopefully none to us. I will do cartwheels for every number over 3 that comes off of the board before we pick at 34, because that will just drive more defensive talent down to our pick.

Defense is the top priority, followed by offensive line.

How often does one have to repeat it? They are not a wive's tale or a myth, they are truisms and a blueprint for success....

Run and stop the run.
Offenses sell tickets, defenses win championships.
Games are won and lost in the trenches.

Anybody that truly believes that this team's highest priority is a quarterback and the first building block to success after a decade-plus of failure is drafting a QB is just refusing to pay attention.

[Beebe's Kid]

I think if the Bills thing that QB is a franchise QB, that they will think about thinking about taking him.... I think. I won't say who that is or who it isn't, or if they will or won't. You won't corner me as to who will be available and who won't. They're might bena lot of good QB's in this draft, but there may be no good QBs, as well. I think there might be some that are taken high, or some taken low...it might be a lot, or none. Take what you will from that, if you think you know what I'm thinking, you may be right or you may not be.

What I do know is that I will be able to celebrate or complain, after we are sure the plate we draft will he a good choice, or not, and then I will explain what I reall meant. All I can tell you is I'll be right, and nobody will ever be able to call me out on my pick.

[don137]

I hope 5 QBs go in the first rd. That means more talent falls to us in second round.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

when the colts drafted manning they had a crappy d and crappy O
so im sold on a qb now not keep waiting and waiting and never getting a qb

[psubills62]

My guess is that 3-4 end up going in the first round, and I think Gabbert slips. Not too far, but in the 8-12 range.

[TigerJ]

My guess is that three or four will get taken, but it will be need driven rather than value driven. Because good QBs are such a rare commodity, teams will reach for a QB in hopes of getting lucky, especially in a draft like this one where there is nothing really that close to a sure thing franchise QB to be had.

[tampabay25690]

It's crazy how many teams are gonna reach for pure desperation, and need...I'm hoping it's not us, but you know how it goes. :wtf:

I don't think it will be a reach especially when QB'S get big $$ in round 1 and most likey there will be a rookie cap...

[tampabay25690]

Im pretty sure that 4 are gone and possibly 5...