Ickybaluky
04-21-2011, 05:43 PM
Must read, IMO.
LINK (http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/brian-billick-nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-make-or-break-head-coaches-career-042011)
Some highlights:
First, the obvious. Of the 17 teams that did not have a winning record (and I don’t consider 8-8 a winning record), all but Seattle are in the front end of the draft and only Dallas and Houston have a quantifiable presence at the quarterback position.
Each is in desperate search for a quarterback with the exception of Denver, Detroit and St. Louis, which have each taken a QB in the first round the last two years. Conclusion: You need a quarterback to win in this league. Brilliant, right?
Next, there were 15 teams last year with winning records of nine or more wins. Of those 15 teams, 13 were led by quarterbacks taken in the first round -- New England, obviously, with Tom Brady and Kansas City with Matt Cassel.
So what do these facts mean? It means you have about a six percent chance of winning in this league without a quarterback that is not selected in the first round. Unfortunately, if you do select a quarterback in the first round you only have about a 50-50 chance of him being worthy of that pick.
The three of us had a common mentor in Bill Walsh.
When I sat down to co-author the book “The Winning Edge” with Bill he made this observation:
“I am not sure, as a coach, taking a QB in the first round is worth the risk. No matter how competent you are at evaluating that position, the variables as to whether a QB will develop adequately, are to a large degree, outside of your control. And, if you are known as an offensive coach, particularly if your reputation is built on working with QB’s, and you miss on a first round pick. I am not sure you can survive that. Not just with that team, but in the industry.”
So having said all that, have at it. Go pick that QB.
LINK (http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/brian-billick-nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-make-or-break-head-coaches-career-042011)
Some highlights:
First, the obvious. Of the 17 teams that did not have a winning record (and I don’t consider 8-8 a winning record), all but Seattle are in the front end of the draft and only Dallas and Houston have a quantifiable presence at the quarterback position.
Each is in desperate search for a quarterback with the exception of Denver, Detroit and St. Louis, which have each taken a QB in the first round the last two years. Conclusion: You need a quarterback to win in this league. Brilliant, right?
Next, there were 15 teams last year with winning records of nine or more wins. Of those 15 teams, 13 were led by quarterbacks taken in the first round -- New England, obviously, with Tom Brady and Kansas City with Matt Cassel.
So what do these facts mean? It means you have about a six percent chance of winning in this league without a quarterback that is not selected in the first round. Unfortunately, if you do select a quarterback in the first round you only have about a 50-50 chance of him being worthy of that pick.
The three of us had a common mentor in Bill Walsh.
When I sat down to co-author the book “The Winning Edge” with Bill he made this observation:
“I am not sure, as a coach, taking a QB in the first round is worth the risk. No matter how competent you are at evaluating that position, the variables as to whether a QB will develop adequately, are to a large degree, outside of your control. And, if you are known as an offensive coach, particularly if your reputation is built on working with QB’s, and you miss on a first round pick. I am not sure you can survive that. Not just with that team, but in the industry.”
So having said all that, have at it. Go pick that QB.