patmoran2006
04-27-2011, 08:20 AM
I’m both energized and disheartened about the NFL draft finally being on our doorsteps. Excited that months of speculation finally end and give us plenty of new material to dissect and discuss. Depressed because the NFLPA and league owners can’t get a deal done, which translates to months (and maybe more) of endless legal mumbo jumbo nobody can or wants to understand.
After four previous mock draft warm-ups that began on January 28, this is the equivalent of a final exam. For the record, last year’s BSD two round mock (http://www.buffalosportsdaily.com/bsd-2010-nfl-mock-draft-41-picks/) had Buffalo taking Derrick Morgan and Roger Saffold. Sure, I was wrong—but wouldn’t Buffalo be better off right now if I were right?
Not surprisingly, I’ve had Buffalo selecting a different player in each of my four previous 2011 mocks: Patrick Peterson, Cameron Jordan, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert.
None are the pick in my final mock.
Let’s jump right into it, since this mock is already painstakingly long to decipher.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton (QB), Auburn- I don’t envy Panthers’ general manager Marty Hurney. I’d bet money he would love to trade out of this spot, but don’t think he’ll be able to. The team drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round just a year ago. Are they ready to demote him to permanent second stringer after just one season? Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson would all be safer picks, but the feeling is Hurney just can’t pass on Newton’s astronomical ceiling. Newton is raw, inexperienced and many think he has character issues that will prohibit his dedication towards being the best player he can be. He also happens to have the physical tools that can completely revolutionize the game. Quite possibly, there’s never been a prospect with his combination of size, speed, physical girth and arm strength. The Panthers, who have become utterly irrelevant, need to roll the dice.
2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller (OLB), Texas A&M- The consensus pick all along has been Marcell Dareus but Von Miller is the best defensive playmaker of this draft and new head coach John Fox is in love with him. The Broncos are going to run a 4-3 defense and Miller is regarded as a 3-4 guy, but he can disguised in a lot of a looks and the bottom line is Miller is a complete matchup nightmare for any offense. If this pick does happen, it’s probably going to excite a lot of Buffalo Bills fans. I could also still see Patrick Peterson going here. The feeling got from people I talk to is that John Elway likes Dareus a lot, but isn’t sure he’s a game-changer and although the Broncos clearly have a hole in the middle of their defense, there should be some quality tackles available in the second round.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus (DL), Alabama- Let me tell you guys something right now—- until the last minute I had Dareus slotted to Denver with the second pick. In what will be a surprise to many, especially to those who follow mocks all over the internet, I did not have the Bills tabbing Miller at three. Instead, I penciled in Cameron Jordan in a shocker. I can’t express enough how high the Bills organization is a whole a about Jordan. It’s to the point they almost refuse to discuss him publicly. Jordan is the best fit for the Bills defense in this draft, and that’s including Dareus or anyone else. If I’m wrong about Denver’s pick and Dareus is off the board, I think they could “reach” for Jordan.
However, Buddy Nix will probably dancing a jig to see Dareus there. He improves the defensive line from the first day he steps foot in Orchard Park. He will mainly play defensive end opposite Dwan Edwards and between Kyle Williams. Like his Pro Bowl (alternate) counterpart, Dareus is versatile and has the ability to play multiple positions along the line.
At least some people still want the Bills to take Blaine Gabbert, but in this scenario I think Dareus is a no-brainer. Even if they somehow passed on Dareus, I don’t think the Bills would take Gabbert so high in the draft.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Blaine Gabbert (QB), Missouri- Some people are buying Carson Palmer being done with the Bengals while others aren’t. Personally, I’m sold on his Cincinnati career being over. This situation has Palmer to Miami written all over it whenever trades are eventually allowed. For now, that makes this pick come down to Gabbert or A.J. Green. Terrell Owens won’t be back and Chad OchoCinco probably won’t be either. But Gabbert has the ability to start in my opinion quicker than any other quarterback prospect and if all things are equal, you got to take the quarterback before the receiver. As has been noted, I don’t trades and wouldn’t be shocked to see Arizona move up to to get Gabbert (a dream scenario for Buffalo), but if he’s on the board for the Bengals it’s where I see him landing. The Bengals need a receiver to but with no guarantee who will be on the board after this crazy first round, they better get their guy now. For the record, Buffalo passing on Gabbert automatically makes his career worth closely monitoring.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson (CB), LSU- Lord have mercy, do the Cardinals ever need a quarterback. However, I don’t think it’s coming via the draft as Ken Wisenhunt hardly wants to wait around to develop a starter. If Gabbert doesn’t fall into their lap they’ll go another direction with this pick. Patrick Peterson may not the biggest need on the team but arguably he’s the top rated prospect of the entire draft. Pair him next to Dominque-Rodgers Cromartie and the Cardinals got the makings of a wonderful cornerback combo.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green (WR), Georgia- There’s been plenty of speculation that Green will end up going to Cincinnati at four, but if he’s on the board for the Browns this should be an easy pick. Cleveland can and will address their beleaguered defense, but they really need to start getting offensive weapons around Colt McCoy if they want him to succeed. Green is one of the highest ranked players on everyone’s draft board and can bring excitement to a humdrum Cleveland passing game.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn (DE), North Carolina- The 49ers are one of many teams in need of a quarterback, but taking Jake Locker for them this early doesn’t make sense. Maybe Jim Harbaugh sees something in Alex Smith others don’t. Perhaps they make a trade or sign a free agent eventually. I don’t know– is it possible Harbaugh is secretly hoping to go 0-16 so he can re-unite with Andrew Luck next year? Quinn has all the physical tools to be a big difference maker in the NFL.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley (DT), Auburn- Once thought to be the top pick of the draft, Fairley’s mini-slide ends here. Tennessee is one of many teams in need of a quarterback and recent rumors have them targeting Andy Dalton, but I can’t see that happening this early. Fairley will have the advantage of now former college coach Tracy Rocker coaching the defensive line. He’s sure to vouch for Fairley, who’s offseason has seen a plethora of character and motivation concern issues raised.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith (OT), USC- I’ll keep this one short and sweet— if Smith is good enough for Dallas Morning News writer Rick Gosselin to project him here, that’s good enough for me. However, with Jordan and J.J. Watt available at this spot, Jerry Jones will have a lot to think about. He’s never drafted an offensive tackle in the first round.
10. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker (QB), Washington- This pick has classic Mike Shanahan written all over it. Word on the street (and the internet) is Locker reminds Shanny of Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler; two guys the coach knows very well from his time in Denver. Don’t ask me why as this is merely a hunch, but I got a suspicion when it’s all said and done, Locker is going to end up being the best quarterback of this class. I think he got a raw deal in college behind a very bad football team. He has a ton of ability and even if he’s considered a reach being a top 10 pick (trust me he will be), this is a good spot for the Skins to get their quarterback.
11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara (CB), Nebraska- This is my last Jordan mention of this article because if he’s on the board there’s no way he’s getting past Houston. Since he isn’t, Houston will take Amukamara as they try to rectify a putrid pass defense. Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator and will be running a 3-4, which should exclude Fairley or Bowers from being the choice. Some think Amukamara is a better cover corner than Peterson. Houston should, and probably will jump on him.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Cameron Jordan (DE), California- I was very tempted to slot him to Buffalo with the third pick, especially since I’m confident in how much the Bills like him. Let’s put it this way– I can guarantee you Jordan is among the top six on the Bills’ big board. Still, the need for him drops for a while following Buffalo. Minnesota would be a perfect for him, even though he’s regarded as a 3-4 end by nature. Jordan is equally capable of playing end on a 4-3, will help the Vikings already stout run defense and be a player Leslie Frazier can use in a variety of ways for years to come. Personally, I think he could easily end up being the steal of round one.
13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo (OT), Boston College- It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the Lions top priority needs to be finding blockers to help keep Matt Stafford in one piece going forward. Castonzo is regarded as a guy that can come in and start immediately.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones (WR), Alabama- There is a 0.0% chance the Rams pass on Jones if he’s on the board. Sam Bradford would be crying tears of joy if this happens. If he’s gone, Bowers will probably be the pick.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey (OL), Florida- Although Mark Ingram is in the majority of mocks to Miami, I don’t see the same value others apparently are. The Dolphins have to get better on the line if they want to beat divisional opponents like New England and the New York Jets and Pouncey could be a stud in this league. If Locker is on the board however, he could end up here, and this could also be the place for the draft’s first quarterback reach— Christian Ponder. I think Miami would love to move down from this spot, especially since they don’t have a second round pick after the Brandon Marshall trade last year. In the end, the Dolphins were pursue a veteran quarterback through free agency or the draft.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Da’Quan Bowers (DE), Clemson- The farther along this mock I get, the stronger feeling I get Ponder is going to go higher than anyone expects. The Jags will give strong thought to him but ultimately this is where Bowers’ slide ends. A lot of teams are scared off by his knee, but it only takes one to pull the trigger. Ironically, several weeks ago he was considered a near-lock to Buffalo in my book.
17. New England Patriots: J.J. Watt (DE), Wisconsin- There is no way the Patriots are keeping all three of their first 33 picks; it’s just not their style. They will keep this one for sure if Watt is on the board. The Patriots want to upgrade their pass rush and Watt can help improve it immediately. I’m keeping a close eye on Watt, especially after colleague Sal Capaccio reported a few weeks ago that Nix liked him a lot. Could he be a Bills target should they trade down?
18. San Diego Chargers: Ryan Kerrigan (OLB), Purdue- We’re getting to the point where you start to hear the word “value” an awful lot. The Chargers could go offensive line here but Kerrigan represents better value for the organization.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder (OT), Colorado- I’m willing to bet the Giants would love to get their hands on Pouncey, who I projected as being off the board. Tom Coughlin loves drafting cornerbacks early, which could bring Jimmy Smith or Aaron Williams into play. But Solder is the best player available at this stage and he is needed on a line reeling in parts.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith (DE), Missouri- There’s a lot of talk about the Bucs moving up and trying to get Amukamara, but they’d be thrilled to have Smith fall for them if they stay at 20. This is a team clearly on the rise and if they can pick up a few quality defenders in this draft— look out.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Corey Liuget (DT), Illinois- Regarded by many as the best of the second tier of tackles after Dareus and Fairley, Liuget would represent good value by the Chiefs, especially because they need help in the middle.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi (OT), Wisconsin- It’s hard to question something Bill Polian does, but the Colts haven’t done a good enough job of getting quality lineman around Peyton Manning in recent years. They could target a defensive tackle with their first pick, but I think they find Manning a solid tackle on the offensive side of things.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith (CB), Colorado- The Eagles have traded out of their first pick six times in the last eight years and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again. If they don’t, offensive line and defensive end could be needs, but neither are as big as finding a cornerback to play alongside Asante Samuel. Smith should be the pick.
24. New Orleans Saints: Cameron Heyward (DE), Ohio State- The Saints have to generate a better pass rush than they did last year and Heyward would look real good on the other side of Will Smith. I want to note a source tells me the Bills are pretty high on this kid and with the probability of him being around in round two very low, the Bills could look to move up from pick No. 34 should they not address defensive line with the third overall pick. I would assume they’d have to take Gabbert at three for any chance of this happening.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Christian Ponder (QB), Florida State- I’ve heard plenty of noise from people about the Seahawks taking a big liking to Andy Dalton, and they’ve also entertained Ryan Mallet and Jake Locker recently. But should the Seahawks grab a quarterback late in the first, and I think they will, I’m projecting Ponder as their guy. This will break Andre Reed’s tweeting heart.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Williams (CB), Texas- Baltimore would jump all over Cameron Heyward if he’s still on the board. He’s not, so it’s time to find the next best option. Current starting corners Chris Carr and Josh Wilson could both become free agents depending on the CBA situation and Domonique Foxworth is coming of a torn ACL.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Akeem Ayers (LB), UCLA- The Falcons need help at outside linebacker and without question, Ayers is the best in this class after Miller. Many teams are worried about Ayers’ slow 40-time at his pro day (4.69), but he’s an excellent pass rusher and scouts say he plays at good football speed.
28. New England Patriots: Mark Ingram (RB), Alabama- This is a pick that would be surprising to see the Patriots keep. If this mock goes remotely as close to what I’m projecting, some team is going to want to move here to grab Dalton or Mallett. The Patriots are always a willing trading partner but if they keep the pick they’d be thrilled to have Ingram join the running back mix with BenJarvus Green and Danny Woodhead.
29. Chicago Bears: Danny Watkins (OG), Baylor- The Bears can certainly use a strong, physical wide receiver, but Watkins would be the pick if available. The best guard on the board, he can help protect Jay Cutler. Chris Williams was shifted last year to guard, which could give them a pair of young studs in the interior, though Williams hasn’t developed into the player they hoped he’d be quite yet.
30. New York Jets: Stephen Pea (DT), Oregon State- Rex Ryan has to replace Kris Jenkins in the middle of the Jets’ vaunted defense and Pea, who bench pressed a NFL combine-record 49 reps, would be the best candidate.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Phil Taylor (DT), Baylor- Starting nose tackle Casey Hampton will be turning 34 and his backup (Chris Hoke) is one year older. The Steelers would love to add an offensive tackle and hope that Sherrod slips to this spot, but anyone other tackle at this point wouldn’t be good value. Taylor can be developed slowly and turn into a solid frontline defender for the Steelers, who always pride themselves on defense.
32. Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod (OT), Mississippi State- Green Bay targeted Bryan Bulaga in the first round last year and could target another tackle first this time around. Sherrod is clearly the best tackle on the board. Chad Clifton is almost done and Mark Tauscher spent last season injured. Protecting Aaron Rodgers will be a high priority for the Packers over the next several years.
OUND TWO
33. New England Patriots: Torrey Smith (WR), Maryland- At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Patriots could trade out of this pick. Yeah, yeah, yeah. If they don’t, Smith could be a great fit for the Patriots’ offense as he has the ability to stretch defenses and make plays down the field; something they lack with their current crop of pass catchers.
34: Buffalo Bills: Colin Kaepernick (QB), Nevada- Until recently, I had Andy Dalton going in this spot, assuming he’s even available. Word on the street is Dalton reminds many of the Bills’ current starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. That would be fine in my book—if Fitzpatrick was 35-years old and not 28. If the kid is in many ways a carbon copy of Fitzpatrick, why draft him? Kaepernick is raw with a ton of natural ability and a very live arm. He’s the perfect kind of candidate to groom under Fitzpatrick for a year and possibly longer. Kaepernick is extremely fast and agile for his size; a trait Chan Gailey will like working with. He’ll have to work on his mechanics, particularly the full hitch in his delivery, so this is a pick to be patient with. Don’t expect anything as a rookie. Also, be warned that New England is almost a lock to trade down from 28 or 33 for a team looking for a quarterback, meaning it’s anything but a lock the Bills even have a quarterback (other than Ryan Mallett, who they won’t take) available to select at 34. If that’s the case, Kyle Rudolph would be a tremendous pick in this spot.
BILLS THIRD ROUND PICK
Round Three: Kelvin Sheppard (ILB), LSU- I’ve heard Gailey fell in love with his natural ability to be a leader during Senior Bowl week. There’s no doubt the Bills need leaders.
After four previous mock draft warm-ups that began on January 28, this is the equivalent of a final exam. For the record, last year’s BSD two round mock (http://www.buffalosportsdaily.com/bsd-2010-nfl-mock-draft-41-picks/) had Buffalo taking Derrick Morgan and Roger Saffold. Sure, I was wrong—but wouldn’t Buffalo be better off right now if I were right?
Not surprisingly, I’ve had Buffalo selecting a different player in each of my four previous 2011 mocks: Patrick Peterson, Cameron Jordan, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert.
None are the pick in my final mock.
Let’s jump right into it, since this mock is already painstakingly long to decipher.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton (QB), Auburn- I don’t envy Panthers’ general manager Marty Hurney. I’d bet money he would love to trade out of this spot, but don’t think he’ll be able to. The team drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round just a year ago. Are they ready to demote him to permanent second stringer after just one season? Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson would all be safer picks, but the feeling is Hurney just can’t pass on Newton’s astronomical ceiling. Newton is raw, inexperienced and many think he has character issues that will prohibit his dedication towards being the best player he can be. He also happens to have the physical tools that can completely revolutionize the game. Quite possibly, there’s never been a prospect with his combination of size, speed, physical girth and arm strength. The Panthers, who have become utterly irrelevant, need to roll the dice.
2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller (OLB), Texas A&M- The consensus pick all along has been Marcell Dareus but Von Miller is the best defensive playmaker of this draft and new head coach John Fox is in love with him. The Broncos are going to run a 4-3 defense and Miller is regarded as a 3-4 guy, but he can disguised in a lot of a looks and the bottom line is Miller is a complete matchup nightmare for any offense. If this pick does happen, it’s probably going to excite a lot of Buffalo Bills fans. I could also still see Patrick Peterson going here. The feeling got from people I talk to is that John Elway likes Dareus a lot, but isn’t sure he’s a game-changer and although the Broncos clearly have a hole in the middle of their defense, there should be some quality tackles available in the second round.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus (DL), Alabama- Let me tell you guys something right now—- until the last minute I had Dareus slotted to Denver with the second pick. In what will be a surprise to many, especially to those who follow mocks all over the internet, I did not have the Bills tabbing Miller at three. Instead, I penciled in Cameron Jordan in a shocker. I can’t express enough how high the Bills organization is a whole a about Jordan. It’s to the point they almost refuse to discuss him publicly. Jordan is the best fit for the Bills defense in this draft, and that’s including Dareus or anyone else. If I’m wrong about Denver’s pick and Dareus is off the board, I think they could “reach” for Jordan.
However, Buddy Nix will probably dancing a jig to see Dareus there. He improves the defensive line from the first day he steps foot in Orchard Park. He will mainly play defensive end opposite Dwan Edwards and between Kyle Williams. Like his Pro Bowl (alternate) counterpart, Dareus is versatile and has the ability to play multiple positions along the line.
At least some people still want the Bills to take Blaine Gabbert, but in this scenario I think Dareus is a no-brainer. Even if they somehow passed on Dareus, I don’t think the Bills would take Gabbert so high in the draft.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Blaine Gabbert (QB), Missouri- Some people are buying Carson Palmer being done with the Bengals while others aren’t. Personally, I’m sold on his Cincinnati career being over. This situation has Palmer to Miami written all over it whenever trades are eventually allowed. For now, that makes this pick come down to Gabbert or A.J. Green. Terrell Owens won’t be back and Chad OchoCinco probably won’t be either. But Gabbert has the ability to start in my opinion quicker than any other quarterback prospect and if all things are equal, you got to take the quarterback before the receiver. As has been noted, I don’t trades and wouldn’t be shocked to see Arizona move up to to get Gabbert (a dream scenario for Buffalo), but if he’s on the board for the Bengals it’s where I see him landing. The Bengals need a receiver to but with no guarantee who will be on the board after this crazy first round, they better get their guy now. For the record, Buffalo passing on Gabbert automatically makes his career worth closely monitoring.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson (CB), LSU- Lord have mercy, do the Cardinals ever need a quarterback. However, I don’t think it’s coming via the draft as Ken Wisenhunt hardly wants to wait around to develop a starter. If Gabbert doesn’t fall into their lap they’ll go another direction with this pick. Patrick Peterson may not the biggest need on the team but arguably he’s the top rated prospect of the entire draft. Pair him next to Dominque-Rodgers Cromartie and the Cardinals got the makings of a wonderful cornerback combo.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green (WR), Georgia- There’s been plenty of speculation that Green will end up going to Cincinnati at four, but if he’s on the board for the Browns this should be an easy pick. Cleveland can and will address their beleaguered defense, but they really need to start getting offensive weapons around Colt McCoy if they want him to succeed. Green is one of the highest ranked players on everyone’s draft board and can bring excitement to a humdrum Cleveland passing game.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn (DE), North Carolina- The 49ers are one of many teams in need of a quarterback, but taking Jake Locker for them this early doesn’t make sense. Maybe Jim Harbaugh sees something in Alex Smith others don’t. Perhaps they make a trade or sign a free agent eventually. I don’t know– is it possible Harbaugh is secretly hoping to go 0-16 so he can re-unite with Andrew Luck next year? Quinn has all the physical tools to be a big difference maker in the NFL.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley (DT), Auburn- Once thought to be the top pick of the draft, Fairley’s mini-slide ends here. Tennessee is one of many teams in need of a quarterback and recent rumors have them targeting Andy Dalton, but I can’t see that happening this early. Fairley will have the advantage of now former college coach Tracy Rocker coaching the defensive line. He’s sure to vouch for Fairley, who’s offseason has seen a plethora of character and motivation concern issues raised.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith (OT), USC- I’ll keep this one short and sweet— if Smith is good enough for Dallas Morning News writer Rick Gosselin to project him here, that’s good enough for me. However, with Jordan and J.J. Watt available at this spot, Jerry Jones will have a lot to think about. He’s never drafted an offensive tackle in the first round.
10. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker (QB), Washington- This pick has classic Mike Shanahan written all over it. Word on the street (and the internet) is Locker reminds Shanny of Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler; two guys the coach knows very well from his time in Denver. Don’t ask me why as this is merely a hunch, but I got a suspicion when it’s all said and done, Locker is going to end up being the best quarterback of this class. I think he got a raw deal in college behind a very bad football team. He has a ton of ability and even if he’s considered a reach being a top 10 pick (trust me he will be), this is a good spot for the Skins to get their quarterback.
11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara (CB), Nebraska- This is my last Jordan mention of this article because if he’s on the board there’s no way he’s getting past Houston. Since he isn’t, Houston will take Amukamara as they try to rectify a putrid pass defense. Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator and will be running a 3-4, which should exclude Fairley or Bowers from being the choice. Some think Amukamara is a better cover corner than Peterson. Houston should, and probably will jump on him.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Cameron Jordan (DE), California- I was very tempted to slot him to Buffalo with the third pick, especially since I’m confident in how much the Bills like him. Let’s put it this way– I can guarantee you Jordan is among the top six on the Bills’ big board. Still, the need for him drops for a while following Buffalo. Minnesota would be a perfect for him, even though he’s regarded as a 3-4 end by nature. Jordan is equally capable of playing end on a 4-3, will help the Vikings already stout run defense and be a player Leslie Frazier can use in a variety of ways for years to come. Personally, I think he could easily end up being the steal of round one.
13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo (OT), Boston College- It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the Lions top priority needs to be finding blockers to help keep Matt Stafford in one piece going forward. Castonzo is regarded as a guy that can come in and start immediately.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones (WR), Alabama- There is a 0.0% chance the Rams pass on Jones if he’s on the board. Sam Bradford would be crying tears of joy if this happens. If he’s gone, Bowers will probably be the pick.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey (OL), Florida- Although Mark Ingram is in the majority of mocks to Miami, I don’t see the same value others apparently are. The Dolphins have to get better on the line if they want to beat divisional opponents like New England and the New York Jets and Pouncey could be a stud in this league. If Locker is on the board however, he could end up here, and this could also be the place for the draft’s first quarterback reach— Christian Ponder. I think Miami would love to move down from this spot, especially since they don’t have a second round pick after the Brandon Marshall trade last year. In the end, the Dolphins were pursue a veteran quarterback through free agency or the draft.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Da’Quan Bowers (DE), Clemson- The farther along this mock I get, the stronger feeling I get Ponder is going to go higher than anyone expects. The Jags will give strong thought to him but ultimately this is where Bowers’ slide ends. A lot of teams are scared off by his knee, but it only takes one to pull the trigger. Ironically, several weeks ago he was considered a near-lock to Buffalo in my book.
17. New England Patriots: J.J. Watt (DE), Wisconsin- There is no way the Patriots are keeping all three of their first 33 picks; it’s just not their style. They will keep this one for sure if Watt is on the board. The Patriots want to upgrade their pass rush and Watt can help improve it immediately. I’m keeping a close eye on Watt, especially after colleague Sal Capaccio reported a few weeks ago that Nix liked him a lot. Could he be a Bills target should they trade down?
18. San Diego Chargers: Ryan Kerrigan (OLB), Purdue- We’re getting to the point where you start to hear the word “value” an awful lot. The Chargers could go offensive line here but Kerrigan represents better value for the organization.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder (OT), Colorado- I’m willing to bet the Giants would love to get their hands on Pouncey, who I projected as being off the board. Tom Coughlin loves drafting cornerbacks early, which could bring Jimmy Smith or Aaron Williams into play. But Solder is the best player available at this stage and he is needed on a line reeling in parts.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith (DE), Missouri- There’s a lot of talk about the Bucs moving up and trying to get Amukamara, but they’d be thrilled to have Smith fall for them if they stay at 20. This is a team clearly on the rise and if they can pick up a few quality defenders in this draft— look out.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Corey Liuget (DT), Illinois- Regarded by many as the best of the second tier of tackles after Dareus and Fairley, Liuget would represent good value by the Chiefs, especially because they need help in the middle.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi (OT), Wisconsin- It’s hard to question something Bill Polian does, but the Colts haven’t done a good enough job of getting quality lineman around Peyton Manning in recent years. They could target a defensive tackle with their first pick, but I think they find Manning a solid tackle on the offensive side of things.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith (CB), Colorado- The Eagles have traded out of their first pick six times in the last eight years and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again. If they don’t, offensive line and defensive end could be needs, but neither are as big as finding a cornerback to play alongside Asante Samuel. Smith should be the pick.
24. New Orleans Saints: Cameron Heyward (DE), Ohio State- The Saints have to generate a better pass rush than they did last year and Heyward would look real good on the other side of Will Smith. I want to note a source tells me the Bills are pretty high on this kid and with the probability of him being around in round two very low, the Bills could look to move up from pick No. 34 should they not address defensive line with the third overall pick. I would assume they’d have to take Gabbert at three for any chance of this happening.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Christian Ponder (QB), Florida State- I’ve heard plenty of noise from people about the Seahawks taking a big liking to Andy Dalton, and they’ve also entertained Ryan Mallet and Jake Locker recently. But should the Seahawks grab a quarterback late in the first, and I think they will, I’m projecting Ponder as their guy. This will break Andre Reed’s tweeting heart.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Williams (CB), Texas- Baltimore would jump all over Cameron Heyward if he’s still on the board. He’s not, so it’s time to find the next best option. Current starting corners Chris Carr and Josh Wilson could both become free agents depending on the CBA situation and Domonique Foxworth is coming of a torn ACL.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Akeem Ayers (LB), UCLA- The Falcons need help at outside linebacker and without question, Ayers is the best in this class after Miller. Many teams are worried about Ayers’ slow 40-time at his pro day (4.69), but he’s an excellent pass rusher and scouts say he plays at good football speed.
28. New England Patriots: Mark Ingram (RB), Alabama- This is a pick that would be surprising to see the Patriots keep. If this mock goes remotely as close to what I’m projecting, some team is going to want to move here to grab Dalton or Mallett. The Patriots are always a willing trading partner but if they keep the pick they’d be thrilled to have Ingram join the running back mix with BenJarvus Green and Danny Woodhead.
29. Chicago Bears: Danny Watkins (OG), Baylor- The Bears can certainly use a strong, physical wide receiver, but Watkins would be the pick if available. The best guard on the board, he can help protect Jay Cutler. Chris Williams was shifted last year to guard, which could give them a pair of young studs in the interior, though Williams hasn’t developed into the player they hoped he’d be quite yet.
30. New York Jets: Stephen Pea (DT), Oregon State- Rex Ryan has to replace Kris Jenkins in the middle of the Jets’ vaunted defense and Pea, who bench pressed a NFL combine-record 49 reps, would be the best candidate.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Phil Taylor (DT), Baylor- Starting nose tackle Casey Hampton will be turning 34 and his backup (Chris Hoke) is one year older. The Steelers would love to add an offensive tackle and hope that Sherrod slips to this spot, but anyone other tackle at this point wouldn’t be good value. Taylor can be developed slowly and turn into a solid frontline defender for the Steelers, who always pride themselves on defense.
32. Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod (OT), Mississippi State- Green Bay targeted Bryan Bulaga in the first round last year and could target another tackle first this time around. Sherrod is clearly the best tackle on the board. Chad Clifton is almost done and Mark Tauscher spent last season injured. Protecting Aaron Rodgers will be a high priority for the Packers over the next several years.
OUND TWO
33. New England Patriots: Torrey Smith (WR), Maryland- At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Patriots could trade out of this pick. Yeah, yeah, yeah. If they don’t, Smith could be a great fit for the Patriots’ offense as he has the ability to stretch defenses and make plays down the field; something they lack with their current crop of pass catchers.
34: Buffalo Bills: Colin Kaepernick (QB), Nevada- Until recently, I had Andy Dalton going in this spot, assuming he’s even available. Word on the street is Dalton reminds many of the Bills’ current starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. That would be fine in my book—if Fitzpatrick was 35-years old and not 28. If the kid is in many ways a carbon copy of Fitzpatrick, why draft him? Kaepernick is raw with a ton of natural ability and a very live arm. He’s the perfect kind of candidate to groom under Fitzpatrick for a year and possibly longer. Kaepernick is extremely fast and agile for his size; a trait Chan Gailey will like working with. He’ll have to work on his mechanics, particularly the full hitch in his delivery, so this is a pick to be patient with. Don’t expect anything as a rookie. Also, be warned that New England is almost a lock to trade down from 28 or 33 for a team looking for a quarterback, meaning it’s anything but a lock the Bills even have a quarterback (other than Ryan Mallett, who they won’t take) available to select at 34. If that’s the case, Kyle Rudolph would be a tremendous pick in this spot.
BILLS THIRD ROUND PICK
Round Three: Kelvin Sheppard (ILB), LSU- I’ve heard Gailey fell in love with his natural ability to be a leader during Senior Bowl week. There’s no doubt the Bills need leaders.