Stewie's Official 2011 Prediction Thread*

[Stewie]

Since there's no way we're going to sign a FA that is good for more than 1 extra win all by himself, our team is pretty much set in place.

What will our record be this year?

I think we're 8-8.

*if there is football

[doug45]

6 - 10

[PTI]

5-11

[TMu11]

10-6

[Mindbender]

My prediction: 7-9.

Here's the Bills schedule by the way.

<table width="600" align="center" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="center">Week</td> <td align="center">Date</td> <td align="center">Time</td> <td align="center">Opponent</td> <td align="center">Stadium</td> <td align="center">TV</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">1</td> <td align="center">9/11/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td align="center">Arrowhead Stadium</td> <td align="center">CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">2</td> <td align="center">9/18/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">OAKLAND RAIDERS</td> <td align="center">Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">3</td> <td align="center">9/25/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">10/2/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td align="center">Paul Brown Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">10/9/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">PHILADELPHIA EAGLES</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center">FOX</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">6</td> <td align="center">10/16/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at New York Giants</td> <td align="center">New Meadowlands Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">7</td> <td align="center">10/23/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td colspan="3" align="center">BYE WEEK</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">8</td> <td align="center">10/30/11</td> <td align="center">4:05</td> <td align="center">WASHINGTON REDSKINS</td> <td align="center">Rogers Centre (Toronto)</td> <td align="center">FOX</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">9</td> <td align="center">11/6/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">NEW YORK JETS</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">10</td> <td align="center">11/13/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at Dallas Cowboys</td> <td align="center">Cowboys Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">11</td> <td align="center">11/20/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at Miami Dolphins</td> <td align="center">Sun Life Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">12</td> <td align="center">11/27/11</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at New York Jets</td> <td align="center">New Meadowlands Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">13</td> <td align="center">12/4/11</td> <td align="center"> 1:00</td> <td align="center">TENNESSEE TITANS</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">14</td> <td align="center">12/11/11</td> <td align="center">4:15</td> <td align="center">at San Diego Chargers</td> <td align="center">Qualcomm Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">15</td> <td align="center">12/18/11</td> <td align="center"> 1:00</td> <td align="center">MIAMI DOLPHINS</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">16</td> <td align="center">12/24/11</td> <td align="center"> 1:00</td> <td align="center">DENVER BRONCOS</td> <td align="center"> Ralph Wilson Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">17</td> <td align="center">1/1/12</td> <td align="center">1:00</td> <td align="center">at New England Patriots</td> <td align="center">Gillette Stadium</td> <td align="center"> CBS</td></tr></tbody></table>

[TacklingDummy]

4-12

Welcome to Buffalo, Luck, Barkley, Landry Jones,Nick Foles, Jonathan Martin, or Matt Kalil.

[Dr. Lecter]

Between 2 and 4 wins.

I'll say 3-13

[PTI]

You should be able to fart at least 6 wins in a league with a salary cap.

[X-Era]

4-12

Welcome to Buffalo, Luck, Barkley, Landry Jones,Nick Foles, Jonathan Martin, or Matt Kalil.Wow... that's a long list. Are you sure they are all franchise QB's? We only want sure-fire guys apparently. At this point, it looks like there will end up being a total of 1 next year and he will go at 1... and I hope I'm wrong.

[X-Era]

My prediction is 6 and 10... drafting 8 or 9 with no real shot at a sure-fire franchise QB

[DraftBoy]

2-14

[X-Era]

2-14Possible. But, I think our defense may in fact be better. However, I don't expect to put up the same numbers on offense since the league has no had a whole years worth of tape to figure out what were doing.

[justasportsfan]

Possible. But, I think our defense may in fact be better. However, I don't expect to put up the same numbers on offense since the league has no had a whole years worth of tape to figure out what were doing.

so you're saying the O will stay the same in their 2nd year under Gailey?

[stuckincincy]

My prediction is 6 and 10... drafting 8 or 9 with no real shot at a sure-fire franchise QB

X...I can't make a prediction this season - if it happens. The ko rule changes, the lockout, players failing drug tests and being out of shape, no trades, UDFAs in limbo, pre-season or no, 16 or 18 games or no.

Ugh.

BTW - thanks for the many draft threads you published. "You know your onions", if you will accept an old aphorism.

:mybills:

[PTI]

so you're saying the O will stay the same in their 2nd year under Gailey?

I expect to see a lot of what the Pats did to the Bills second time around.

[X-Era]

so you're saying the O will stay the same in their 2nd year under Gailey?I hope for better. But yeah, I think having all that tape of our offense and playing it for the 3rd time will help the Pats, Jets, and Fins. The OL will likely be a bit better which could yield more success in the run game and maybe more time for Fitz. But my worry is that teams may start to figure us out and shut us down.

[X-Era]

X...I can't make a prediction this season - if it happens. The ko rule changes, the lockout, players failing drug tests and being out of shape, no trades, UDFAs in limbo, pre-season or no, 16 or 18 games or no.

Ugh.

BTW - thanks for the many draft threads you published. "You know your onions", if you will accept an old aphorism.

:mybills:I'm good with that.

[Night Train]

5-7 wins and one more off-season. Sure like the direction.

People are finally starting to see the mess left behind by Jauron.

[Crisis]

2-14

draft andrew luck

19-0

19-0

19-0

[Bangarang]

5-11

[hemi13]

3-13

[justasportsfan]

Between 2 and 4 wins.

I'll say 3-13

10k says we have a better record than last years.

[jills]

4 - 5 wins max

[DraftBoy]

Possible. But, I think our defense may in fact be better. However, I don't expect to put up the same numbers on offense since the league has no had a whole years worth of tape to figure out what were doing.

Wouldnt shock me if both units are actually worse this year.

[Dr. Lecter]

Wouldnt shock me if both units are actually worse this year.
How could the defense be worse?

Come on.

How?

[DraftBoy]

How could the defense be worse?

Come on.

How?

No pass rush, new starting SS (possibly a rookie), possible rookies at nickle, dime, and ILB. You insert that much youth, you will see a lot of mistakes get made. Not to mention we sure as hell better hope that Byrd rebounds to something or else we are going just as bad v. the pass as we were v. the run.

[Dr. Lecter]

No pass rush, new starting SS (possibly a rookie), possible rookies at nickle, dime, and ILB. You insert that much youth, you will see a lot of mistakes get made. Not to mention we sure as hell better hope that Byrd rebounds to something or else we are going just as bad v. the pass as we were v. the run.


They had no pass rush last year too. There will not be a rookie at nickel and dime (Reggie Corner). The rookie at ILB will be no worse than Davis and Aoydele.

You add in an year of experience of Troup and Carrington and a much more talented player in Dareus than this defense has had in years, and the defense will not be worse.

The team has enough problems w/o you making new ones up.

[justasportsfan]

They had no pass rush last year too. There will not be a rookie at nickel and dime (Reggie Corner). The rookie at ILB will be no worse than Davis and Aoydele.

You add in an year of experience of Troup and Carrington and a much more talented player in Dareus than this defense has had in years, and the defense will not be worse.

The team has enough problems w/o you making new ones up.
so how did you come up with a worse record than last year.

[Dr. Lecter]

so how did you come up with a worse record than last year.
The schedule is brutal.

[justasportsfan]

The schedule is brutal.
so was last years. It was considered one of if not the hardest before the season even started

[Dr. Lecter]

so was last years. It was considered one of if not the hardest before the season even started
I caught something from Op too.

[justasportsfan]

I caught something from Op too.
told you not to shower together

[Dr. Lecter]

told you not to shower together
Bull****.

You brought a video camera.

[alohabillsfan]

Really, you can't ignor a mod???? Cuz Mr. Crying about franchise QB for the next 8 months is really annoying.

[mysticsoto]

No pass rush, new starting SS (possibly a rookie), possible rookies at nickle, dime, and ILB. You insert that much youth, you will see a lot of mistakes get made. Not to mention we sure as hell better hope that Byrd rebounds to something or else we are going just as bad v. the pass as we were v. the run.

If any rookie starts it's b'cse they beat out their counterpart. If we sign Florence, our CBs will not be worse. Dareus upgrades the Dline by default. Whitner was average at best and there won't be much of a drop off there. Byrd had a pretty bad last year.

I really can't see how on D we can be worse or even as bad...

[psubills62]

The schedule is brutal.
To be completely honest, I'm not seeing the brutal schedule everyone else is. Maybe in terms of some of last year's records. But we do play the AFC West...whose records were ALL inflated last year by 1) playing each other and 2) playing the NFC West.

I don't feel comfortable venturing a guess until closer to the season starts, but right now I saw a good number of possible wins on there. I'll probably count up optimistically, then subtract 2 or 3. That seems to be what happens every year.

[DraftBoy]

They had no pass rush last year too. There will not be a rookie at nickel and dime (Reggie Corner). The rookie at ILB will be no worse than Davis and Aoydele.

You add in an year of experience of Troup and Carrington and a much more talented player in Dareus than this defense has had in years, and the defense will not be worse.

The team has enough problems w/o you making new ones up.

I'm not making up new ones, Im just not willing
to make a blind leap of faith that players are
going to develop just because they are going into Year 2
or that ANY rookie is going to be as good as
player A or B despite how they played in college. It's not too much to ask that they prove it on Sunday's before we assume anything.

Did you really just reference Reggie Corner as a point of strength? He may not even make the team with how many CB's we got and you fail to mention how bad our S's could be without Whitner, which the thought of makes me sick.

That all being said I never said it will or that I expect it to happen. I simply said it's possible given all the new players and their relative youth and inexperience.

[DraftBoy]

If any rookie starts it's b'cse they beat out their counterpart. If we sign Florence, our CBs will not be worse. Dareus upgrades the Dline by default. Whitner was average at best and there won't be much of a drop off there. Byrd had a pretty bad last year.

I really can't see how on D we can be worse or even as bad...

I agree, but you know as well as I do any time you let
this many rookies and young players see as much time as
many posters here expect them to then mistakes will happen.

Signing Florence is still a mighty big IF and until it happens he's not a
part of this defense. Our CB's could be worse though McGee
isn't getting any younger I remind you.

[airdog32]

if we are going to be worse than last year then I say 1-15!

[Dr. Lecter]

I'm not making up new ones, Im just not willing
to make a blind leap of faith that players are
going to develop just because they are going into Year 2
or that ANY rookie is going to be as good as
player A or B despite how they played in college. It's not too much to ask that they prove it on Sunday's before we assume anything.

Did you really just reference Reggie Corner as a point of strength? He may not even make the team with how many CB's we got and you fail to mention how bad our S's could be without Whitner, which the thought of makes me sick.

That all being said I never said it will or that I expect it to happen. I simply said it's possible given all the new players and their relative youth and inexperience.

Who said Corner was a point of strength? I was disputing your point that there will be rookies at both spots. Of course if he does not make the team, that means the rookies are playing better. Which goes against what you point was.

And yes, the safeties will be worse without Whitner (who, whether people like him or not, is/was the best safety on the team).

[Johnny Bugmenot]

7-9. MAYBE 8-8.

The defensive improvements are obvious. The offense is pedestrian, but serviceable. However, it's not a playoff team yet, and I'm not convinced that in this league environment it will ever be a playoff contender again. The rookies need some time to gel, of course, but there will be visible improvements. This team isn't going to lose eight in a row like they did last year.

Projecting out Fitzpatrick's 4-8 record as starter last year, that comes out to between 5-11 and 6-10 over a 16-game season. I think this team is good enough with the additions to add two more wins to that total (some of the Bills losses were close enough to make that plausible last year).

[TacklingDummy]

Wow... that's a long list. Are you sure they are all franchise QB's? We only want sure-fire guys apparently. At this point, it looks like there will end up being a total of 1 next year and he will go at 1... and I hope I'm wrong.
The Mocks I looked at for next year mostly has those 4 QB's going into the first. A few of the Mocks have Buffalo drafting Luck and it's not with the 1st pick. Never know who comes out of the woodwork next year during the college season. Luck could stink it up next year.

[Jan Reimers]

I think Spiller will have a bigger role. Easley will give us another weapon at WR, and the young receivers will continue to develop. We will be healthier, and better on the O line with Wood at C, Urbik or Rinehart at G, and Pears-Howard-Wrotto-Hairston (anyone but Green) at RT. Fitz will have a good corps of RBs and WRs, and will be the starter from day one, which will help.

Troup and Carrington should be better, one of the Moats-Coleman-Batten LBs will step up, and we drafted some really good Defensive players. I think we improved the D-line, Linebackers and the Secondary.

No worse than 8-8 is my prediction.

[mysticsoto]

I agree Jan, I'm going with 8-8 also. Alot of people forget that some of our games last year went into overtime and were close. We took Baltimore to overtime and lost. We took the Chiefs to overtime and lost. We took the Steelers to overtime and lost. We lost 7 games by a touchdown or less.

I'd say we are not as bad as we look. If we can develop a pass rush, I think 8-8 is very reasonable.

[ddaryl]

I see us as a 6-10 or a 7-9 team

[DraftBoy]

Who said Corner was a point of strength? I was disputing your point that there will be rookies at both spots. Of course if he does not make the team, that means the rookies are playing better. Which goes against what you point was.

And yes, the safeties will be worse without Whitner (who, whether people like him or not, is/was the best safety on the team).

Fair enough you didnt say Corner was a point of strength but a rookie beating him out is not something Id get excited about. His 1 career interception, severly undersized frame, and lack of top speed are something I have no desire to see stick on this roster, and it doesnt entirely go against my point since outplaying Corner at this point is akin to being the brightest kid on the short bus.

I agree about Whitner, love him or hate him he still was at least decent at times in coverage.

Now if they sign Florence, if they can add a pass rush via OLB in FA, if they can add some depth to the DB ranks, then all of this goes away but if people want to continue to put their faith in unproven players then I will continue to take the opposite stance until they prove themselves. I dont think that's asking too much of NFL players.

[PTI]

7-9. MAYBE 8-8.

The defensive improvements are obvious. The offense is pedestrian, but serviceable. However, it's not a playoff team yet, and I'm not convinced that in this league environment it will ever be a playoff contender again. The rookies need some time to gel, of course, but there will be visible improvements. This team isn't going to lose eight in a row like they did last year.

Projecting out Fitzpatrick's 4-8 record as starter last year, that comes out to between 5-11 and 6-10 over a 16-game season. I think this team is good enough with the additions to add two more wins to that total (some of the Bills losses were close enough to make that plausible last year).

The what if game is a dangerous game to play, but if you bring up one side in the what if, you should being up the other too. All 4 wins could have easily been losses too if you want to say we should have won other games. Bengals game never would have happened if the starting CB, 2 safeties, and nickel did not play the 2nd half. Dolphins missed 4 FGs and had the ball late driving for the tie or the win. Browns had the ball diring late for the tie. Lions dominated play for the most part between the 20's, missed a 2 point try for the tie in the last minute of play. All 3 of those low scoring wins easily could have been losses and were Jauron type wins where we tried every way to give the other team the win and were boring on offense and gave up a ton of yards.

[justasportsfan]

The what if game is a dangerous game to play, but if you bring up one side in the what if, you should being up the other too. All 4 wins could have easily been losses too if you want to say we should have won other games. Bengals game never would have happened if the starting CB, 2 safeties, and nickel did not play the 2nd half. Dolphins missed 4 FGs and had the ball late driving for the tie or the win. Browns had the ball diring late for the tie. Lions dominated play for the most part between the 20's, missed a 2 point try for the tie in the last minute of play. All 3 of those low scoring wins easily could have been losses and were Jauron type wins where we tried every way to give the other team the win and were boring on offense and gave up a ton of yards.


I'll take our Jauron type wins in Gaileys 1st year over Jaurons 4th year.

[stuckincincy]

No pass rush, new starting SS (possibly a rookie), possible rookies at nickle, dime, and ILB. You insert that much youth, you will see a lot of mistakes get made. Not to mention we sure as hell better hope that Byrd rebounds to something or else we are going just as bad v. the pass as we were v. the run.

The league had his rookie year films to study - and like a pitcher that comes up from the minors and shines because nobody's seen his stuff - one guesses that they figured how to deal with him last season.

I've never seen him play, but from what I've read, he's not much of a run defender.

I'm hoping that Wanny's coaching will help out. I'm still amazed that Pitt canned him (same as when MIA canned him).


The b'gals pulled the old run/pass defense hype thing for years in attempts to pump up ticket sales:

"We were tough against the run last year! - get yer tix now!" In other words, our pass D was so bad, nobody bothered to run against us. Then the next (losing) year came, and it was "We were excellent against the pass! - get yer tix now!" Translation - our run D was on a par with that that a Girl Scout troop could accomplish.

[DraftBoy]

The league had his rookie year films to study - and like a pitcher that comes up from the minors and shines because nobody's seen his stuff - one guesses that they figured how to deal with him last season.

I've never seen him play, but from what I've read, he's not much of a run defender.

I'm hoping that Wanny's coaching will help out. I'm still amazed that Pitt canned him (same as when MIA canned him).


The b'gals pulled the old run/pass defense hype thing for years in attempts to pump up ticket sales:

"We were tough against the run last year! - get yer tix now!" In other words, our pass D was so bad, nobody bothered to run against us. Then the next (losing) year came, and it was "We were excellent against the pass! - get yer tix now!" Translation - our run D was on a par with that that a Girl Scout troop could accomplish.

I dont remember the number now but I want to say over half of Byrd's rookie year INT's were off tipped or deflected passes. Right place, right time. That doesnt always happen, and his numbers suffered dearly for it.

[we are]

Fair enough you didnt say Corner was a point of strength but a rookie beating him out is not something Id get excited about. His 1 career interception, severly undersized frame, and lack of top speed are something I have no desire to see stick on this roster, and it doesnt entirely go against my point since outplaying Corner at this point is akin to being the brightest kid on the short bus.

I agree about Whitner, love him or hate him he still was at least decent at times in coverage.

Now if they sign Florence, if they can add a pass rush via OLB in FA, if they can add some depth to the DB ranks, then all of this goes away but if people want to continue to put their faith in unproven players then I will continue to take the opposite stance until they prove themselves. I dont think that's asking too much of NFL players.

when was this??

[DraftBoy]

when was this??

When was he decent? Go re-watch the games.

Please don't confuse decent for good though.

[stuckincincy]

I dont remember the number now but I want to say over half of Byrd's rookie year INT's were off tipped or deflected passes. Right place, right time. That doesnt always happen, and his numbers suffered dearly for it.

That's my impression, too. I'm hesitant to pronounce much judgment on Bills' players, because where I reside, they are so seldom shown on tv here.

Oh well - left Bflo. in 1978, so my interest, involvement can only be vicarious.

[doug45]

6 - 10


Here was my prediction, sadly I was correct, but what I also said is this will be just enough to take away a good high draft pick and that came true too!! But it really wouldn't matter because they make the worst picks in the NFL!! We need a top shelf QB ( Fitz would be an Ok back-up), and there is only one in the draft and you would need the top pick to get him. The big question is now that they have given Fitz this big contract is there a way to get out of it? You need a QB that is not only good at the game but one that can be a real leader, I just don't see that here for the last 12 years!!