Locker and Ponder

[T-Long]

Check out my article, then weigh on on what side you are on.

Locker and Ponder (http://www.thefanhub.com/1107/elsewhere/nfl/locker-and-ponder-reach-or-steal.html)

[TigerJ]

When it comes to drafting quarterbacks there are obviously more factors that go into the decision than for drafting other positions. Because your starting QB handles the ball on virtually ever offensive snap (the "Wildcat" not withstanding) NFL teams feel like they have to have one that is reasonably reliable, and if you have a great one he can elevate the play of the whole team. Consequently, if a team doesn't have one, they are going to go to considerable length to try and get one, and there aren't enough to go around.

When drafting a QB, it's all about risk and reward balanced agains need. Both Ponder and Locker have some upside, but they also carry risks. You think maybe you can fix Locker's accuracy issues, but you can't really tell for sure until you try. Chan Gailey thought he could fix Trent Edwards' deep pass phobia and paralysis for fear of making the wrong decision. He couldn't. It cost him a few wins last season perhaps. Moreover, it may have cost him an opportunity in the 2010 draft to address the QB position in a more meaningful way (than drafting Levi Brown). Ponder is perhaps less of a risk than Locker, but he's also got a more ordinary arm and athleticism. And he's not risk free. Minnesota can't be certain that his shoulder won't give him some trouble down the road, and there will be occasional whispers of "injury prone" until he proves otherwise.

As your article points out, both Tennessee and Minnesota were pretty desperate for a serviceable starting QB. They had nothing in the cupboard.

When you look at drafting a QB, you want to weigh risk and reward, but a team's level of need will change the weighting. Had Tennesse and Minnesota not felt the level of desperation they did, I doubt they would have picked Locker and Ponder where they did. Are they right, or are they wrong? Well, they have someone to stick under center this season, and they didn't a few weeks ago. Long term, their decisions will be measured by the success or lack thereof these guys have. It's easy for arm chair QBs and media pundits to pass judgment before we really know everything. It's a lot tougher on a GM, but that's why they pay these guys the big bbucks.

[BertSquirtgum]

both very bad reaches.....

[Ingtar33]

locker was a 3rd rounder at best last year... he never would have gone number 1... especially after Bradford came back in such tremendous shape.

I still want to know where the locker hype comes from... the kid just is a slightly less accurate and slightly faster version of JP Losman. Hell, Losman had a better college career (by far) then Locker did, playing for a far worst team.

Both were horrendous picks in round 1... though Ponder probably has the better chance of transitioning to the pro game than Locker.

[T-Long]

locker was a 3rd rounder at best last year.
I respect your opinion, but there is no way that Locker was a 3rd rounder last year. He had a much better Junior season than he did in his Senior campaign, but yet he went 8th overall in this draft. If Sam Bradford was in this draft, Locker STILL would have went in the first round. You may believe he is a 3rd round "talent", but he still would have gone in round 1...there is no doubt about that.

[Ginger Vitis]

Reaches

[don137]

Taken at #8 and 12 overall they better pan out and should produce. However, since their are no guarantees and factoring in the success rate of QBs
they are reaches.

[CleveSteve]

Can you post your article in this thread? The website you post on is blocked at my job. Thanks.

[tampabay25690]

locker was a 3rd rounder at best last year... he never would have gone number 1... especially after Bradford came back in such tremendous shape.

I still want to know where the locker hype comes from... the kid just is a slightly less accurate and slightly faster version of JP Losman. Hell, Losman had a better college career (by far) then Locker did, playing for a far worst team.

Both were horrendous picks in round 1... though Ponder probably has the better chance of transitioning to the pro game than Locker.

I disagree with you here..........
He was far from a 3rd draft pick Locker that is..
He would have gone in the 1st round and probably top 10.

Problem is to me Ponder came out of knowhere. He was a fair QB at best in College. Locker was a baller IMO.....

[tampabay25690]

So what I ask if Locker is a reach what about Blaine Gabbert???

[trapezeus]

i'm not sure they are reaches for the teams that wanted them. they probably weren't going to be around in the second round. if ponder wasn't taken there, he would have been a bill. i think we all think that.

locker, might not, but he probably would have gone to cinci.

so the teams that wanted them, probably would not have had a shot at them again without trading out.

Minny, i think got the better deal. ponder is ready for the pro game, and if he stays healthy from handing the ball off to AP, he could roethlisberger his way into the playoffs.

Locker is coming into a worse team that has a couple issue, including new coaching.

[CleveSteve]

I disagree with you here..........
He was far from a 3rd draft pick Locker that is..
He would have gone in the 1st round and probably top 10.

Problem is to me Ponder came out of knowhere. He was a fair QB at best in College. Locker was a baller IMO.....
Locker, Ponder, and Mallett were the three guys being talked about as first rounders going into last season.

[BuffaloBlitz83]

Gabbert will have the best career of the class so he's no reach. A steal

[elltrain22]

Both were big, big, big time reaches.

[T-Long]

Great insight everybody...looks like the majority of you believe they were reaches. As the article says, I understand the reach sentiment, but I applaud both teams for rolling the dice and getting their guy. You can't kill them for trying, especially for how desperate they were to land a QB

[Demon]

Reaches

If they become franchise type QBs, there is no such thing as a reach.

[Buddo]

Both major reaches.
I seriously doubt that both will succeed.
Having said that, they have probably gone to teams that actually 'suit' their styles.
Both picks are very much 'need' over 'value'.
The team whose guy works out, will be labelled geniuses, the one whose guy doesn't, muppets.
TBH, they might both do okay, but I'm unconvinced either is a 'franchise' QB, and to be taken that high, you better had be.
The numbers are far more in favour of Ponder becoming one than Locker. (Think Parcells infamous 'rule').
Both teams are fortunate in that they can probably afford to 'take a shot', as their rosters aren't that bad generally. Much will depend on how long they want to wait to develop them. Patience and the NFL don't exactly go hand in hand.

[psubills62]

http://www.titletrakk.com/Images/musicians-artists/reach-out-hand-300.jpg

[BillsFever21]

We won't know if they are steals or busts until they actually step on the field and show what they have. As far as draft position goes they were picked high but if they perform nobody will care. If they don't then it will make it look twice as worse.

I've been an FSU fan for 24 years. I always thought of Ponder as a decent QB and maybe a 2nd round type QB. I never saw him as a Franchise Type QB but somebody that could go with the flow. Not win you many games but not lose them either.

All that remains to be seen though. Between all the QB needs and it being a weak QB class on paper teams panicked even more with the QB's and they benefited from it. Not having any FA before the draft didn't help the cause for the teams either.

[TigerJ]

Had Buffalo been in a position to draft them where they went in the first round, they would have been reaches because Buffalo has Fitzpatrick, and Fitzpatrick is at least a serviceable starter. Ponder and Locker are not certain to be better than Fitzpatrick, especially Locker. But if Levi Brown was your only QB under contract, and you don't like the veteran free agents who might be out there, then you know you've got to get a QB who might be able to play. I see T-Long's point because that's kind of the position Minnesota and Tennessee were in. I don't admire them exactly. They did what they did out of desperation, and may not have felt they really had any other options.

[Buddo]

Had Buffalo been in a position to draft them where they went in the first round, they would have been reaches because Buffalo has Fitzpatrick, and Fitzpatrick is at least a serviceable starter. Ponder and Locker are not certain to be better than Fitzpatrick, especially Locker. But if Levi Brown was your only QB under contract, and you don't like the veteran free agents who might be out there, then you know you've got to get a QB who might be able to play. I see T-Long's point because that's kind of the position Minnesota and Tennessee were in. I don't admire them exactly. They did what they did out of desperation, and may not have felt they really had any other options.

I see the points you are making. The thing is with all of that, is that if we had put ourselves in that situation, we would be going absolutely ballistic at the FO, for being in such a position of 'need' for a QB, we had to just grab the next one available.
admittedly the Titans didn't exactly do that when they took Locker over Gabbert, but I think you get my drift.
It's one thing to draft 'need' at other positions, but at QB it's got to be a recipe for disaster.

[tampabay25690]

If they work out then a steal......

It's hard to say right now....
It's way to easy for anyone to say they were both a reach.
Give them a few years then we can discuss....

[CleveSteve]

I think every QB taken in the first round this year was a reach. They just weren't that good.