Grading this year's draft is silly

[bf1]

This is not meant as a knock against Nix or me trying to be a wet blanket.

Shouldn't we wait a little bit and see how these guys do before we declare the draft a success or not? Some of these guys can choke in the NFL--or exceed beyond expectations. Mike Williams was a good pick at the time, right?

Also, I don't get the nut-hugging over the Darius pick. I l love the pick and the guy, don't get me wrong, but with the #3 pick of the entire draft, it doesn't take a genius to select a great player/pick. Especially since a lot of mocks had him to us...

[justasportsfan]

Nix could have taken Gabbert with that # 3 pick and the opinion of this draft could have changed depending on which side you're on so yes, #3 could still get screwed up. Ask the raiders who picked Russel .

[PTI]

I agree. I still wanted a QB taken though. At the time Mike Williams was considered superior to Bryant McKinnie.

[OpIv37]

Well, in past years when I criticized the draft, people said it was too soon and that it takes a year or two to evaluate a draft.

This year, when everyone (including me) is saying mostly good things about our draft, that whole "it takes a year or two" thing doesn't seem to be coming up nearly as much.

But, in general this is what drives me insane about the draft. All the pre-draft stuff is just speculation, then the draft finally happens, then people speculatively evaluate how teams drafted based largely on how well it followed their personal pre-draft speculation. As if that wasn't enough, people then start speculating on who was where on what team's draft board and who teams would have picked if X had still been on the board. And if that STILL wasn't enough, they immediately start doing the mock drafts for a YEAR FROM NOW, before any NFL teams have played to know their needs/draft order or any college players have played to show their talent/lack thereof.

It's utter insanity.

[bf1]

Nix could have taken Gabbert with that # 3 pick and the opinion of this draft could have changed depending on which side you're on so yes, #3 could still get screwed up. Ask the raiders who picked Russel .

Well of course.

[bf1]

Well, in past years when I criticized the draft, people said it was too soon and that it takes a year or two to evaluate a draft.

This year, when everyone (including me) is saying mostly good things about our draft, that whole "it takes a year or two" thing doesn't seem to be coming up nearly as much.

But, in general this is what drives me insane about the draft. All the pre-draft stuff is just speculation, then the draft finally happens, then people speculatively evaluate how teams drafted based largely on how well it followed their personal pre-draft speculation. As if that wasn't enough, people then start speculating on who was where on what team's draft board and who teams would have picked if X had still been on the board. And if that STILL wasn't enough, they immediately start doing the mock drafts for a YEAR FROM NOW, before any NFL teams have played to know their needs/draft order or any college players have played to show their talent/lack thereof.

It's utter insanity.

Right on.

I also don't understand the knocking of Mel Kiper so much. All it takes is one team to make a weird pick to throw off an entire mock.

I'd like to see a historical look at how Kiper's picks did vs the teams' and judge him that way.

[elltrain22]

You are absolutely right!! It is silly, but we as sports fans look forward to drafts for months and months, and the draft grades gives a bit of closure to the draft, even though we all know that it is very, very premature to grade drafts.

[psubills62]

Also, I don't get the nut-hugging over the Darius pick. I l love the pick and the guy, don't get me wrong, but with the #3 pick of the entire draft, it doesn't take a genius to select a great player/pick. Especially since a lot of mocks had him to us...
What amuses me is that despite enormous evidence to the contrary, people act like Dareus is an obvious pick. No, it doesn't take a genius - but there are a LOT of seemingly smart guys that have made horrible picks in the top 5. Scott Pioli and Tyson Jackson being just one. Dareus may have been an "obvious" pick, but he wasn't obvious to Carolina or Denver, both of whom should have taken him.

It's one small step, but I think Nix and co. do deserve some credit for taking Dareus. They could have very easily picked Gabbert and I'm sure a number of people wouldn't have batted an eye.

I agree, bf1, that the draft shouldn't be graded for a few years. However it's interesting that the "wet blankets" never say that after abysmal drafts.

[mysticsoto]

Well, in past years when I criticized the draft, people said it was too soon and that it takes a year or two to evaluate a draft.

This year, when everyone (including me) is saying mostly good things about our draft, that whole "it takes a year or two" thing doesn't seem to be coming up nearly as much.

But, in general this is what drives me insane about the draft. All the pre-draft stuff is just speculation, then the draft finally happens, then people speculatively evaluate how teams drafted based largely on how well it followed their personal pre-draft speculation. As if that wasn't enough, people then start speculating on who was where on what team's draft board and who teams would have picked if X had still been on the board. And if that STILL wasn't enough, they immediately start doing the mock drafts for a YEAR FROM NOW, before any NFL teams have played to know their needs/draft order or any college players have played to show their talent/lack thereof.

It's utter insanity.

What else is there to do during this "dead" time of the year?

[OpIv37]

What else is there to do during this "dead" time of the year?

for starters, there was Sabres hockey until 2 weeks ago.

[CAbills]

You mean we can't judge a draft right after it's over?? Hmm interesting concept...

[bf1]

You mean we can't judge a draft right after it's over?? Hmm interesting concept...

Find to judge, but stupid to really argue about it.

[Cntrygal]

What else is there to do during this "dead" time of the year?


For the most part... ski! (The ski season just ended :( )

[stuckincincy]

For the most part... ski! (The ski season just ended :( )

I've not the legs for it anymore - but good for you! :woot:

EDIT: I was strictly an XC-er. Still have my pair of Fischer Europa 99 edged mountaineering waxable skis. It was great fun applying the proper wax for the conditions.

[Extremebillsfan247]

This is not meant as a knock against Nix or me trying to be a wet blanket.

Shouldn't we wait a little bit and see how these guys do before we declare the draft a success or not? Some of these guys can choke in the NFL--or exceed beyond expectations. Mike Williams was a good pick at the time, right?

Also, I don't get the nut-hugging over the Darius pick. I l love the pick and the guy, don't get me wrong, but with the #3 pick of the entire draft, it doesn't take a genius to select a great player/pick. Especially since a lot of mocks had him to us...
Grading the draft after it just happened is preliminary only. It is meant to grade based on how you drafted according to your draft board, best prospect available when you picked, and how he fits in terms of your scheme or need for that position etc. How that prospect performs once he gets on the field is an entirely different phase from which to grade the draft, but together they make up the bigger picture in my opinion.

If you drafted well and your prospects fail to produce, then it pinpoints the problem to either being a failing at the coaching, or scouting level. If this early in the process you grade poorly but have a high output from your prospects, it would mean that your scouting and coaching are where you need them to be. In the Bills case, where they always seem to do better at the back end of the draft, it could be scouting. Modrak was in charge of scouting the top players and it caused the Bills to miss on a lot of prospects in the first 2 rounds over the last 10 years or so.

So, grading the draft early from a fan's standpoint is really just something to talk about, where on the professional side of it, it is more worthy of serious consideration. It is the beginning of the process of evaluating your team, and your personnel. In short, it is the start of a much bigger process and not the end to one.

[Night Train]

Grading it IS silly...but being encouraged by it is not.

[X-Era]

Well, in past years when I criticized the draft, people said it was too soon and that it takes a year or two to evaluate a draft.

This year, when everyone (including me) is saying mostly good things about our draft, that whole "it takes a year or two" thing doesn't seem to be coming up nearly as much.

But, in general this is what drives me insane about the draft. All the pre-draft stuff is just speculation, then the draft finally happens, then people speculatively evaluate how teams drafted based largely on how well it followed their personal pre-draft speculation. As if that wasn't enough, people then start speculating on who was where on what team's draft board and who teams would have picked if X had still been on the board. And if that STILL wasn't enough, they immediately start doing the mock drafts for a YEAR FROM NOW, before any NFL teams have played to know their needs/draft order or any college players have played to show their talent/lack thereof.

It's utter insanity.That's a very accurate depiction of what happens, it's true. But, as a guy who does that, I just do it for fun. I understand it can drive some people insane but personally I enjoy all the speculation. I mean were talking about how to build the foundation of the team. Yes, it's speculation, but that's the game. It's not like we have a crystal ball available to us and choose not to use it. It's not like we have a bible we can refer to but we choose not to read it. At that point your left with opinions and speculation. And some of us like it. It's just a matter of what spins your wheel I guess.

[X-Era]

Right on.

I also don't understand the knocking of Mel Kiper so much. All it takes is one team to make a weird pick to throw off an entire mock.

I'd like to see a historical look at how Kiper's picks did vs the teams' and judge him that way.Stats would be very interesting. I've been looking at it for the stuff I put out. But obtaining the data is useless if you have nothing to judge it against. I haven't seen anyone put up their stats. Like where you projected a pick to go and where they were taken... stuff like that.

[Mike]

The Beat Draft it history, you know the one that produced 4 Hall of Famers for the 1970's Steelers, was considered an epic failure by the media at that time.

During the 1970's the Steelers were the "it" team, the Dynasty, and that 1974 Draft was considered a dud. The post draft grade it received at the time was a generous C and many experts thought that this draft was a rare miss for the Steelers.

As time has shows, that draft become by far the best in NFL history. Out of it came 4 Hall of Famers, and numerous ProBowl Players. That draft cemented the Steelers dominance for the rest of the 1970's and lead to the winning of 2 more Super Bowls.

[Mike]

Now, its not the 70's anymore, however the point is still valid. Give it 3 years to evaluate a draft and if you are going to give someone the benefit of the doubt, it should be to those GM/Teams that have earned it.

[YardRat]

I don't see anything wrong with grading a draft immediately after and assessing how well the team performed regarding picking solid college talent, addressing needs, getting value, etc. Obviously the final grades will be dependent on the players' contributions and performance over the long-term and will most likely vary from the post draft grade, but it's still an exercise that will have an impact on other aspects of player acquisition such as free agency.

We know the holes in the team, and the goal is to fill them. As far as picking bodies to fill spots in areas of weakness, we did pretty well.

[TedMock]

The Beat Draft it history, you know the one that produced 4 Hall of Famers for the 1970's Steelers, was considered an epic failure by the media at that time.

During the 1970's the Steelers were the "it" team, the Dynasty, and that 1974 Draft was considered a dud. The post draft grade it received at the time was a generous C and many experts thought that this draft was a rare miss for the Steelers.

As time has shows, that draft become by far the best in NFL history. Out of it came 4 Hall of Famers, and numerous ProBowl Players. That draft cemented the Steelers dominance for the rest of the 1970's and lead to the winning of 2 more Super Bowls.

You're talking about the 1974 Steelers draft that produced 4 HOF's and 6 suprebowl starters. This actually brings up more interesting commentary regarding grading drafts. The Pitts-post gazette had a good article recently about the 1971 draft which actually produced 8 superbowl starters. Only one HOF'er in Jack Ham, but you can argue that Dwight White is as borderline HOF as they come and the rest were important contributors in one way or another. This draft didn't get a ton of love because it was a bit overshadowed by 1974, but check this out (all SB starters) - WR Frank Lewis, LB Jack Ham, G Moon Mullins, DE Dwight White, Larry Brown, DT Fats Holmes, S Mike Wager. That's 7 drafted, plus DB Glen Edwards was an UDFA and college RB convert. Not too shabby.

I don't think judging a draft immediately after or 5 years later is stupid as long as it's all kep in proper context. Judging a draft now should be based on whether, given what we currently know, we improved our team with the best talent at the best value right now. If we're a bad team, did we fill needs, or perceived needs, with the best players at given positions. If we're a good team, did we take the best player on the board at a good value? Again, all based only on what we know now. Hey, we've all made decisions in life that did not work out, but we could look back at and say that based on the circumstances at that time, it was the right decision. Too bad it didn't turn out as I hoped. Etc, etc.

As for judging a draft 3-5 years later - that's easy. Where are they now? If we have 8 superbowl starters including several key pieces and a future HOF'er in 5 years from the 2011 draft then it was probably a wild success.