The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

[X-Era]

Tell me if I'm wrong in my worry about the season very much being in doubt or in fact leaning toward being cancelled.

My thoughts are that we have to go through many steps before we can get back to football:

1) I dont see anyone even starting to seriously talk again until the litigation is over. It doesn't even start until June 3rd.
2) It could take weeks to get a decision... now were into the 3rd or last week in June.
3) We then assume there is no more appeals. I don't think that's a given by any means. If the players lose and the lockout remains, they will just abandon the litigation? I don't think thats likely at all.
4) Even if theres no more appeals, we won't even start to negotiate again until the end of June.
5) We have to get an agreement between the players and owners... but that's not the end of the agreement as I will later state. We had all those mediations and over the course of many days got nowhere. I could easily see several more weeks until we get a deal in principle. Now were up to mid to late July.
6) You still have to get the owners to agree on it which means revenue sharing then comes into play. We know that Ralph hated the last deal, should we expect the owners to just quickly go along this time? I highly doubt it. We could easily see another week or more to haggle that out. Now were into August.

So, the entire FA, training camp, and preseason can be crammed into August to make the Sept opener still work? Hell no, I don't see it. It's sequential.

And then it's a matter of how many games you can lose and still have a season. Can we have a season with 12? 10? 8? I don't know if the league could try to pull off an abbreviated season like that. I think anything less than 12 makes it real questionable. And using that number, we can back it up to mean we have to have everything set to start a season before October.

I'm all for a fast resolution. But were talking about 9 billion dollars here and where it all goes. I just can't envision anyone being able to figure all of that out quickly... even when they start talking which may not be for many more weeks.

I hate to say it but I think the season is very much in doubt.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

It will depend strongly on what happens with the appeal. If the owners win the appeal, I would say the season is in definite jeopardy. My prediction as of right now is this. If the Owners win the appeal, we most likely will lose 2 games to the regular season before it ends. Worse case scenario in my opinion is early October. If the Owners lose the appeal, that all ends. The season will start and negotiations for some sort of a new CBA will continue probably well into next year. JMO

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

Shortly after the millionaires start missing paychecks, the billionaires will be ready to listen

[Extremebillsfan247]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

Shortly after the millionaires start missing paychecks, the billionaires will be ready to listen

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.

[Lone Stranger]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

I believe X-Era has a pretty good handle on this. Remember the owners caved in on the last deal. It doesn't seem likely that it will happen again based on what we know. Better find something to do with your time. Maybe take up fishing again.

[DraftBoy]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

Optimistically we have a deal in Mid July.

Pesimistically we have a deal in November.

[DraftBoy]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

The real question is what is Doty going to do with the TV money. If the NFLPA gets the damages its seeking then we are going to be at this awhile, if they dont its going to end quickly.

[X-Era]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

It will depend strongly on what happens with the appeal. If the owners win the appeal, I would say the season is in definite jeopardy. My prediction as of right now is this. If the Owners win the appeal, we most likely will lose 2 games to the regular season before it ends. Worse case scenario in my opinion is early October. If the Owners lose the appeal, that all ends. The season will start and negotiations for some sort of a new CBA will continue probably well into next year. JMO

I'm not sure the owners would be done litigating if they lose this appeal but I also don't know the rules.

[X-Era]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.

Even if he does get booted they are in the courts and have several other lawyers involved. I don't know if it's simple enough to be able to change leaders and then quickly strike a deal. The litigation and lawyers has slowed this down to a crawl and I don't think it will necessarily be totally done once the appeal ruling comes down.

[Michael82]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.

Some of the 2nd year guys and players making no money or are FAs are already starting to call him out. I think that by the end of June, a bunch of those players making under $1 million will start demanding that Smith listens to the owners and at least gives a counter offer.

[Don't Panic]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

I don't know... I think it has a chance of breaking sooner than what you've portrayed, but worse case scenario I think we're looking at:

August 1: FA begins

August 8: Training Camp begins

August 18-22: Preseason Week 1

August 25-28: Preseason Week 2

September 1-2: Preseason Week 3

A 3 week preseason and then we're on track to start on time. I just can't see these guys willing to gamble on missing games... either side.

[X-Era]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

Some of the 2nd year guys and players making no money or are FAs are already starting to call him out. I think that by the end of June, a bunch of those players making under $1 million will start demanding that Smith listens to the owners and at least gives a counter offer.

So by the end of June we are at step 1; negotiation begins. Still leaves a whole lot of steps in the process. Kind of troubling IMO Mike.

[X-Era]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

I don't know... I think it has a chance of breaking sooner than what you've portrayed, but worse case scenario I think we're looking at:

August 1: FA begins

August 8: Training Camp begins

August 18-22: Preseason Week 1

August 25-28: Preseason Week 2

September 1-2: Preseason Week 3

A 3 week preseason and then we're on track to start on time. I just can't see these guys willing to gamble on missing games... either side.

1 week of FA? What team will be willing to try to throw a roster together that fast? I mean a player can take 2 or 3 days just in travel time and a visit. A player could burn a week in just 2 or 3 visits and that doesn't even get into the negotiation part.

On whether they are willing to gamble on losing games, I think the amount of real negotiating time on the CBA and that the time it takes for the owners to agree on revenue sharing is much more substantial then many on both sides think.

Put it this way, I'm not sure the owners and players care more about losing games than getting the best deal they can get. And, they make a huge blunder and not fully appreciate how long the process will take until it's too late to save the season.

[ServoBillieves]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

Goodell's first labor suit. Smith's first too. Neither wants to show weakness, this all becomes a waiting game until one thinks his ego's finally pushed it too far.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely, and these guys are being as corrupt and whiny as they can get.

[Buddo]

Re: The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

I've read somewhere, and I believe it to be true, that the NFL can still get a full season in, even if it starts something like 3 weeks late. There would be no bye weeks, and no gap between the Championship games and Superbowl etc. The reason this can occur, is that the scheduling for the bye weeks, has teams with byes who would have to, or would have, played each other.
God knows what would happen about FA, TC etc. though.

TBH, the Owners being allowed to continue with the Lockout, while giving them more leverage, might be the worst outcome for the future of the season.

The reason for this, is that what leverage the players have, is then residing in the anti-trust suits they have brought., and that could well be where the whole thing heads off to on it's next stop.

If that does happen, then we might be kissing goodbye to not only a whole season, but the NFL as we currently know it.