The lockout process and predicitions on when it will end

[X-Era]

Tell me if I'm wrong in my worry about the season very much being in doubt or in fact leaning toward being cancelled.

My thoughts are that we have to go through many steps before we can get back to football:

1) I dont see anyone even starting to seriously talk again until the litigation is over. It doesn't even start until June 3rd.
2) It could take weeks to get a decision... now were into the 3rd or last week in June.
3) We then assume there is no more appeals. I don't think that's a given by any means. If the players lose and the lockout remains, they will just abandon the litigation? I don't think thats likely at all.
4) Even if theres no more appeals, we won't even start to negotiate again until the end of June.
5) We have to get an agreement between the players and owners... but that's not the end of the agreement as I will later state. We had all those mediations and over the course of many days got nowhere. I could easily see several more weeks until we get a deal in principle. Now were up to mid to late July.
6) You still have to get the owners to agree on it which means revenue sharing then comes into play. We know that Ralph hated the last deal, should we expect the owners to just quickly go along this time? I highly doubt it. We could easily see another week or more to haggle that out. Now were into August.

So, the entire FA, training camp, and preseason can be crammed into August to make the Sept opener still work? Hell no, I don't see it. It's sequential.

And then it's a matter of how many games you can lose and still have a season. Can we have a season with 12? 10? 8? I don't know if the league could try to pull off an abbreviated season like that. I think anything less than 12 makes it real questionable. And using that number, we can back it up to mean we have to have everything set to start a season before October.

I'm all for a fast resolution. But were talking about 9 billion dollars here and where it all goes. I just can't envision anyone being able to figure all of that out quickly... even when they start talking which may not be for many more weeks.

I hate to say it but I think the season is very much in doubt.

[Extremebillsfan247]

It will depend strongly on what happens with the appeal. If the owners win the appeal, I would say the season is in definite jeopardy. My prediction as of right now is this. If the Owners win the appeal, we most likely will lose 2 games to the regular season before it ends. Worse case scenario in my opinion is early October. If the Owners lose the appeal, that all ends. The season will start and negotiations for some sort of a new CBA will continue probably well into next year. JMO

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

Shortly after the millionaires start missing paychecks, the billionaires will be ready to listen

[Extremebillsfan247]

Shortly after the millionaires start missing paychecks, the billionaires will be ready to listen
You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.

[Lone Stranger]

I believe X-Era has a pretty good handle on this. Remember the owners caved in on the last deal. It doesn't seem likely that it will happen again based on what we know. Better find something to do with your time. Maybe take up fishing again.

[DraftBoy]

Optimistically we have a deal in Mid July.

Pesimistically we have a deal in November.

[DraftBoy]

The real question is what is Doty going to do with the TV money. If the NFLPA gets the damages its seeking then we are going to be at this awhile, if they dont its going to end quickly.

[X-Era]

It will depend strongly on what happens with the appeal. If the owners win the appeal, I would say the season is in definite jeopardy. My prediction as of right now is this. If the Owners win the appeal, we most likely will lose 2 games to the regular season before it ends. Worse case scenario in my opinion is early October. If the Owners lose the appeal, that all ends. The season will start and negotiations for some sort of a new CBA will continue probably well into next year. JMOI'm not sure the owners would be done litigating if they lose this appeal but I also don't know the rules.

[X-Era]

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.Even if he does get booted they are in the courts and have several other lawyers involved. I don't know if it's simple enough to be able to change leaders and then quickly strike a deal. The litigation and lawyers has slowed this down to a crawl and I don't think it will necessarily be totally done once the appeal ruling comes down.

[Michael82]

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.

Some of the 2nd year guys and players making no money or are FAs are already starting to call him out. I think that by the end of June, a bunch of those players making under $1 million will start demanding that Smith listens to the owners and at least gives a counter offer.

[Don't Panic]

I don't know... I think it has a chance of breaking sooner than what you've portrayed, but worse case scenario I think we're looking at:

August 1: FA begins

August 8: Training Camp begins

August 18-22: Preseason Week 1

August 25-28: Preseason Week 2

September 1-2: Preseason Week 3

A 3 week preseason and then we're on track to start on time. I just can't see these guys willing to gamble on missing games... either side.

[X-Era]

Some of the 2nd year guys and players making no money or are FAs are already starting to call him out. I think that by the end of June, a bunch of those players making under $1 million will start demanding that Smith listens to the owners and at least gives a counter offer.So by the end of June we are at step 1; negotiation begins. Still leaves a whole lot of steps in the process. Kind of troubling IMO Mike.

[X-Era]

I don't know... I think it has a chance of breaking sooner than what you've portrayed, but worse case scenario I think we're looking at:

August 1: FA begins

August 8: Training Camp begins

August 18-22: Preseason Week 1

August 25-28: Preseason Week 2

September 1-2: Preseason Week 3

A 3 week preseason and then we're on track to start on time. I just can't see these guys willing to gamble on missing games... either side.1 week of FA? What team will be willing to try to throw a roster together that fast? I mean a player can take 2 or 3 days just in travel time and a visit. A player could burn a week in just 2 or 3 visits and that doesn't even get into the negotiation part.

On whether they are willing to gamble on losing games, I think the amount of real negotiating time on the CBA and that the time it takes for the owners to agree on revenue sharing is much more substantial then many on both sides think.

Put it this way, I'm not sure the owners and players care more about losing games than getting the best deal they can get. And, they make a huge blunder and not fully appreciate how long the process will take until it's too late to save the season.

[ServoBillieves]

Goodell's first labor suit. Smith's first too. Neither wants to show weakness, this all becomes a waiting game until one thinks his ego's finally pushed it too far.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely, and these guys are being as corrupt and whiny as they can get.

[Buddo]

I've read somewhere, and I believe it to be true, that the NFL can still get a full season in, even if it starts something like 3 weeks late. There would be no bye weeks, and no gap between the Championship games and Superbowl etc. The reason this can occur, is that the scheduling for the bye weeks, has teams with byes who would have to, or would have, played each other.
God knows what would happen about FA, TC etc. though.

TBH, the Owners being allowed to continue with the Lockout, while giving them more leverage, might be the worst outcome for the future of the season.

The reason for this, is that what leverage the players have, is then residing in the anti-trust suits they have brought., and that could well be where the whole thing heads off to on it's next stop.

If that does happen, then we might be kissing goodbye to not only a whole season, but the NFL as we currently know it.

[alohabillsfan]

Im currently reviewing "film" and will have my mock lockout 1.0 posted soon.

[Mr. Pink]

1982 all over again.

[YardRat]

Neither side has the balls to risk canceling the entire season. Once July rolls around, there will be a real sense of urgency to get an agreement in place, and they will, sooner rather than later. I'd be stunned if they played less than 12 games once all is said and done.

[BertSquirtgum]

it's almost summer. why anyone would be sitting around worrying about whether there is be a football season right now blows my mind. who cares.

[Michael82]

So by the end of June we are at step 1; negotiation begins. Still leaves a whole lot of steps in the process. Kind of troubling IMO Mike.
I agree. It's very troubling. But honestly, I have always felt that once the lockout began, especially after hearing the lawyers and that dumb ass DeMaurice Smith, that all of the offseason and mini camps, plus regular training camp will be lost. It pisses me off because I have a feeling that the only training camp will be a quick 2 week one that takes place at each teams practice facility. That is going to hurt all the small towns that host NFL training camps each season. Plus it's obviously going to have more camp that is closed to the public because they need to get a lot done in a short amount of time. I also think that it will be a shortened pre-season and that will hurt the owners and cities/towns that pay for the stadiums when they lose the extra revenue and those two lost games will hurt the local businesses.

My honest opinion is that they will finally come to an agreement with last years rules by the last week of July or the first week of August. There will be a quick 2 week period for teams to sign their players and free agents, but all the RFAs will remain in place. Training camp starts in the middle of August and there is a 2 week preseason with the first 2 weeks of September. The regular season begins in week 3.

[Michael82]

Having said all that, there's also a chance that the players get nervous and tell Smith to do his ****ing job and negotiate,a deal quicker. If that's the case, I think you might just make training camp later and shorter, but the regular season begins on time with a shortened preseason.

[X-Era]

Im currently reviewing "film" and will have my mock lockout 1.0 posted soon.It's too early to be worth anything.

[jamze132]

I think they will go back to mediation starting 7 Jun, like it has been written.

[Don't Panic]

1 week of FA? What team will be willing to try to throw a roster together that fast? I mean a player can take 2 or 3 days just in travel time and a visit. A player could burn a week in just 2 or 3 visits and that doesn't even get into the negotiation part.

On whether they are willing to gamble on losing games, I think the amount of real negotiating time on the CBA and that the time it takes for the owners to agree on revenue sharing is much more substantial then many on both sides think.

Put it this way, I'm not sure the owners and players care more about losing games than getting the best deal they can get. And, they make a huge blunder and not fully appreciate how long the process will take until it's too late to save the season.

Free agency would start August 1 (or July 31), but it wouldn't last a week... it could easily go beyond that. The process would be sped up, but there is no reason guys still couldn't be signed while training camp is on. If anything it just motivates players and teams to look to get deals done sooner.

I really cannot see them losing games. I don't care what posturing/predicting is going on now... nothing is real in the public perception during this. Neither side wants to lose a game, and neither will let it get to that point... let's say I'd be floored if they let it get to that point (anything is possible).

The fact that we realize what a mistake it would be is not lost on them. They get this. Anyone who is not a top 10 slaried player on his team get's this. Teams who aren't losing money get this. There might be a lot of tough talk now but cooler, and less stubborn, heads will prevail.

[Mr. Pink]

I'm willing to bet there will be no preseason games this year and it will be used as the precusor for the players and NFL to say see, we don't need a preseason and also used to extend the regular season in the future.

I honestly don't think we see NFL games til the last weekend of October.

[better days]

Years ago, the season only consisted of 12 games so I don't think a 12 game season would be any problem.

Anything shorter than that & they would have to expand the playoffs, adding more teams & games to post season play in my opinion.

[mjt328]

Neither side has the balls to risk canceling the entire season. Once July rolls around, there will be a real sense of urgency to get an agreement in place, and they will, sooner rather than later. I'd be stunned if they played less than 12 games once all is said and done.

I don't believe that for a second.
These guys know the American public and they know it well. They know that nomatter how bad we are kicked and stepped on...eventually we will come crawling back.

We are a society addicted to entertainment.

Baseball is less popular than football. They cancelled the entire SECOND HALF of a season, holding no World Series and making every game already played that season completely worthless.
I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that it currently has ZERO impact on the Cardinals. Maybe it hurt attendance for a year or two. But eventually people forgot and came back.

[Novacane]

You know, I'm willing to bet that the longer this thing drags on, the more De Smith will feel the pressure from the players to make a deal. The word is that they are 100 percent behind him. My question is for how long though? lol Once they start missing preseason games, I suspect things will start falling apart for him. But that's my opinion.



I agree. While these players make a lot of money reports are many of them blow most of it. Once they start missing paychecks the players will split. I don't have any doubt about it.

[Mr. Pink]

I don't believe that for a second.
These guys know the American public and they know it well. They know that nomatter how bad we are kicked and stepped on...eventually we will come crawling back.

We are a society addicted to entertainment.

Baseball is less popular than football. They cancelled the entire SECOND HALF of a season, holding no World Series and making every game already played that season completely worthless.
I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that it currently has ZERO impact on the Cardinals. Maybe it hurt attendance for a year or two. But eventually people forgot and came back.


Had ZERO impact on the Indians as well...They sold out 455 straight games right after the strike. Streak began in June of 95.

[YardRat]

I don't believe that for a second.
These guys know the American public and they know it well. They know that nomatter how bad we are kicked and stepped on...eventually we will come crawling back.

We are a society addicted to entertainment.

Baseball is less popular than football. They cancelled the entire SECOND HALF of a season, holding no World Series and making every game already played that season completely worthless.
I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that it currently has ZERO impact on the Cardinals. Maybe it hurt attendance for a year or two. But eventually people forgot and came back.

You're assuming that the fans are actually part of the equation. We're not. Neither is going to settle because of the fans....they will settle because they both want to make money, this season.

Nobody really cares about baseball, anyway. MLB canceling part of their season is similar to the CFL, UFL or AHL canceling part of theirs. Who really gives a damn?

[Buddo]

If the NFLPA* can somehow overturn the lockout ruling on June 3rd, the Players regain some lost leverage. If it doesn't, what leverage it retains, comes in the form of the Anti-Trust suits. Things then start to get ugly.
The NFLPA* is only prepared, atm at least, to make a settlement through litigation, i.e. a deal done through the courts, on the back of the Anti-Trust suit. This allows then to contend stuff, down the line, with whatever Judge is overseeing the case. This is what has happened with the rulings from Judge Doty. Basically, they are saying, we'll negotiate, but only through our lawyers.
The Owners are saying they are happy to negotiate, but not through lawyers, as they don't like what has happened with all the rulings from Doty in the past, irrespective of whether or not he's right and fair.
Imho, the lockout ruling, for whoever wins, might actually see the start of some serious movement. Either side may still appeal it, and probably will, but it becomes increasingly secondary as time goes on.
What the Owners decide to do in respect of the Anti-Trust suits, will then become the critical aspect of all this.
To have a season this year, there either has to be a new CBA, or the NFL 'imposes' a set of rules, and lifts the Lockout, when it does so.
I think that the best strategy for the NFL, would be to impose a set of rules, that effectively pulls the rug from under the Anti-trust suit(s).
No Draft.
No 'Tags'.
FA whenever a contract is up, or cancelled legitimately.
No Salary Cap ( or floor).
No restrictions on length of contract.
Revenue sharing exists between teams, but only for the likes of TV and media deals, where there is wording in previous anti-trust rulings, that supports this - mainly as being the only practicable way to do those deals.

All this will stuff things up somewhat, but it also gives players next to no leverage.
While it's unfortunate, the effects may not be as far reaching as people think. Missing a draft or two, is distinctly bad news, but cannot be helped. Much of the rest of the NFL's 'parity' is still to be maintained in the interim, as much of rosters will be set - for this year at least.
Give it a couple of years, and the Players will be clamouring for a return to the 'good old days' of a CBA. Unlike today, where they seem to get away with all sorts of crap, they would be subject much more to the terms and conditions of their contracts, and they won't like that one bit.
Teams will still be competitive in the short term, although the likes of Jones might try and gain some advantage, and in the long term, I'm fairly confident another CBA would end up being agreed upon.
In the mean time, teams will be free to organise themselves as they wish, to keep themselves profitable.