Little Bit of Luck

[IMissKelly]

No matter how this season works out, buffalo needs to do all in its power to get Andrew Luck in next years draft. For all we know we may have the opportunity at 1st overall, the lockout is certainly helping to make that true. For a team that is "rebuilding" and is so inexperienced, having no practice time is certainly going have a larger impact then on the veteren teams with veteren leadership (saints, colts) that are still getting together to bond and perfect plays. And even if we dont get the first pick, I'm in favor of pulling a Ditka and trading my draft away for it just for Luck. Let him sit a year behind a Smart QB like Fitz and hes a franchise QB 3-5 years from now.

[YardRat]

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

[OpIv37]

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.

[Mike]

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.


You know the famous saying 'perception is reality'. He could become next years version of Jake Locker. Would you still want him, or whoever is the new #1?

[X-Era]

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.THAT is hilarious. Yardie, that's bet worthy.

50K says that if Luck comes out he will be the top QB taken.

[X-Era]

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

[Mad Max]

Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

I would do that in a heartbeat. I will NEVER be convinced by anyone that I'm wrong.

You get 7 draft picks/year most of them are busts/off the team/average/mediocre. So you end up with 1-2 good players per draft if you're fortunate (see what I did there, by not using the word "lucky").

If you're extremely fortunate you grab a beast/HOF'er every 5th or 6th draft.

So by that reasoning giving up an "entire" draft for a guy that can become your franchise is actually a bargain price.

[X-Era]

I would do that in a heartbeat. I will NEVER be convinced by anyone that I'm wrong.

You get 7 draft picks/year most of them are busts/off the team/average/mediocre. So you end up with 1-2 good players per draft if you're fortunate (see what I did there, by not using the word "lucky").

If you're extremely fortunate you grab a beast/HOF'er every 5th or 6th draft.

So by that reasoning giving up an "entire" draft for a guy that can become your franchise is actually a bargain price.A simple look through our draft history in the past decade should set the "worth" of our draft picks... and if Luck becomes what we all think he will, giving up picks to move up and get him makes sense. You will, however, see a whole slew of people here that will blast that idea.

[YardRat]

THAT is hilarious. Yardie, that's bet worthy.

50K says that if Luck comes out he will be the top QB taken.

I'll take that bet.

[Mad Max]

A simple look through our draft history in the past decade should set the "worth" of our draft picks... and if Luck becomes what we all think he will, giving up picks to move up and get him makes sense. You will, however, see a whole slew of people here that will blast that idea.

Here's the thing, the numbers I used weren't even based on the Bills ****e draft history. I pretty much was using league average assumptions. Throw the Bills dismal draft record into the mix and the proposition of swapping an entire draft for Luck or an equivalent player should be an absolute no brainer.

As for those who will blast, they should ask themselves pre-blast if they would have given an entire draft up for Rodgers/Clay Matthews/Manning/Brees/Marcia.

The only honest answer would be a resounding YES.

[OpIv37]

Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

It's possible.

Here's the problem: we need a QB. Now, I've been one of the people that has been saying for the last two years that there were no available QB's who would make our QB situation any better, and I stand by that.

But, at some point that has to end. At some point, we have to do what it takes to get a QB, and there is zero margin for error, because if we do it for the wrong guy, then we're ****ed for another 5 years.

Would you have given up a 1st and a 3rd for Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees? Knowing what we know now, of course we would. We'd probably give up more than that. So, we just need to wait for the right guy and go for it. IMO Locker is the wrong guy and they gave up too much for him.

The other thing is that, on paper, we shored up our D this year and last year, and on paper, we have some good young receivers. If these situations turn out to be reality, then I'd be even less opposed to throwing draft picks at a QB because it means we have fewer holes to fill elsewhere.

[Mad Max]

I'll take that bet.
Who's your guy?

I'm on record for being a huge Landry Jones fan, but I don't know if I'd take him over Luck.

So who is he? Jones? Foles? Barkley? Cousins?...and if you so choose why you think he's a better pro prospect than Luck.

[X-Era]

It's possible.

Here's the problem: we need a QB. Now, I've been one of the people that has been saying for the last two years that there were no available QB's who would make our QB situation any better, and I stand by that.

But, at some point that has to end. At some point, we have to do what it takes to get a QB, and there is zero margin for error, because if we do it for the wrong guy, then we're ****ed for another 5 years.

Would you have given up a 1st and a 3rd for Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees? Knowing what we know now, of course we would. We'd probably give up more than that. So, we just need to wait for the right guy and go for it. IMO Locker is the wrong guy and they gave up too much for him.

The other thing is that, on paper, we shored up our D this year and last year, and on paper, we have some good young receivers. If these situations turn out to be reality, then I'd be even less opposed to throwing draft picks at a QB because it means we have fewer holes to fill elsewhere.

To me I see a few areas where we should focus going into the next draft:

QB- We have a decision to make after this year. Fitz will be a UFA. It's probably our biggest question mark on this team. Will Fitz become all we need and if he does anything less, what do we do. Andrew Luck won't happen and Matt Barkley may not declare. Landry Jones may be an option.

ILB- Poz may be restricted this year and may leave next year. That would make this an unsettled position and even if we keep Poz, we may want to grab a top prospect to go next to him. Shepp will be in play but a highly touted guy like Vontaze Burflict may be a possibility.

WR- Lee isn't getting it done anymore. Stevie will be a UFA and no one else has shown they are worthy of being a #2. A lot could happen there. But Justin Blackmon may make sense.

OT- I'm a huge Hairston fan but neither the LT nor RT spots are truly settled yet. Guys like Matt Kalil, Johnathan Martin, and Riley Reiff may be in play.

Pass rushing OLB- Merriman may never regain form and then even if Moats is one answer we still need another OLB. Donte Paige-Moss may be an option.

[X-Era]

I'll take that bet.Done.

[Mad Max]

To me I see a few areas where we should focus going into the next draft:

QB- We have a decision to make after this year. Fitz will be a UFA. It's probably our biggest question mark on this team. Will Fitz become all we need and if he does anything less, what do we do. Andrew Luck won't happen and Matt Barkley may not declare. Landry Jones may be an option.

SNIP

My worst case scenario is that both Barkley and Jones stay in, which could easily happen. Both could decide to stay in to try to become the first QB taken in 2012. This worry may be moot depending on how the fabled rookie salary cap is structured, but as of now it's in play.

I just don't as of right now (things could change during the season) think the rest of the names in the hat are of the same caliber as the aforementioned three.

[X-Era]

My worst case scenario is that both Barkley and Jones stay in, which could easily happen. Both could decide to stay in to try to become the first QB taken in 2012. This worry may be moot depending on how the fabled rookie salary cap is structured, but as of now it's in play.

I just don't as of right now (things could change during the season) think the rest of the names in the hat are of the same caliber as the aforementioned three.At this point I agree. I remain very worried about what our situation is at the most important position on this team... QB.

[YardRat]

Who's your guy?

I'm on record for being a huge Landry Jones fan, but I don't know if I'd take him over Luck.

So who is he? Jones? Foles? Barkley? Cousins?...and if you so choose why you think he's a better pro prospect than Luck.

I didn't say a better pro prospect (in my opinion) would surpass Luck...I said he wouldn't be the highest rated QB in the draft. IMO Newton isn't the best prospect from this year's draft, but he still was the first guy taken off of the board.

[Extremebillsfan247]

It's way too early to put any hope on that. 9.9 out of 10 chances that your going to be disappointed by the end result dictates that it's better to wait this out. There is just so much that can go wrong between to today and next April in determining whether we even get a shot at him, let alone draft him. JMO

[OpIv37]

Pass rushing OLB- Merriman may never regain form and then even if Moats is one answer we still need another OLB. Donte Paige-Moss may be an option.


Huh? Did you forget we have Aaron Maybin? Just go watch his rap video- dude is hardCORE!

[Mad Max]

I didn't say a better pro prospect (in my opinion) would surpass Luck...I said he wouldn't be the highest rated QB in the draft. IMO Newton isn't the best prospect from this year's draft, but he still was the first guy taken off of the board.
ok let's cut through the semantics and talk football?

Here's exactly what you said:

"Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season."

My exact question to you would be, who in your opinion will be a higher rated QB than Andrew Luck in the 2012 NFL Draft?

Oh and would you like to place a second wager against your opinion about Luck? 28K ZoneBux?

[YardRat]

ok let's cut through the semantics and talk football?

Here's exactly what you said:

"Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season."

Yes, that's exactly what I said. Just like Locker wasn't the top-rated QB this season, despite being the no-brainer darling of the year before.


My exact question to you would be, who in your opinion will be a higher rated QB than Andrew Luck in the 2012 NFL Draft?

At this point, I honestly don't have an answer for you. Let's see how the college season goes. Who the hell was talking about Cam Newton in June of '10?


Oh and would you like to place a second wager against your opinion about Luck? 28K ZoneBux?

I'm in.

[BertSquirtgum]

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

i agree, he should have come out this year. dumb move on his part.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.
So was Brian Brohm. We had him. Didn't work out so well.

[BillsFever21]

All we heard about before the draft was Andrew Luck. Then thank god he finally declared he was staying in school. Now the posts are already starting about getting Andrew Luck next year.

[BillsFever21]

So was Brian Brohm. We had him. Didn't work out so well.

Yeah, I remember them stories about how Brian Brohm was going to be the Top QB and many here clamored for us to draft him if we had the chance.

We all know the story after that. He didn't end up getting drafted till the 2nd round and then we grabbed him off of Green Bay's practice squad. After that many thought we had a good prospect for a potential QB of the future even though he couldn't even make their active roster and then he turned out to be a complete dud.

[DraftBoy]

Yes, that's exactly what I said. Just like Locker wasn't the top-rated QB this season, despite being the no-brainer darling of the year before.



At this point, I honestly don't have an answer for you. Let's see how the college season goes. Who the hell was talking about Cam Newton in June of '10?



I'm in.

:wave: