Little Bit of Luck

[IMissKelly]

No matter how this season works out, buffalo needs to do all in its power to get Andrew Luck in next years draft. For all we know we may have the opportunity at 1st overall, the lockout is certainly helping to make that true. For a team that is "rebuilding" and is so inexperienced, having no practice time is certainly going have a larger impact then on the veteren teams with veteren leadership (saints, colts) that are still getting together to bond and perfect plays. And even if we dont get the first pick, I'm in favor of pulling a Ditka and trading my draft away for it just for Luck. Let him sit a year behind a Smart QB like Fitz and hes a franchise QB 3-5 years from now.

[YardRat]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

[OpIv37]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.

[Mike]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.

You know the famous saying 'perception is reality'. He could become next years version of Jake Locker. Would you still want him, or whoever is the new #1?

[X-Era]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Luck won't even be the top-rated QB in the draft after the 2011 college season.

THAT is hilarious. Yardie, that's bet worthy.

50K says that if Luck comes out he will be the top QB taken.

[X-Era]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Good, that might make it easier for us to get him. I don't care if he ends up being the top QB in the draft class or not- he's the most solid pro prospect to come out of college in several years.

Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

[Mad Max]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

I would do that in a heartbeat. I will NEVER be convinced by anyone that I'm wrong.

You get 7 draft picks/year most of them are busts/off the team/average/mediocre. So you end up with 1-2 good players per draft if you're fortunate (see what I did there, by not using the word "lucky").

If you're extremely fortunate you grab a beast/HOF'er every 5th or 6th draft.

So by that reasoning giving up an "entire" draft for a guy that can become your franchise is actually a bargain price.

[X-Era]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

I would do that in a heartbeat. I will NEVER be convinced by anyone that I'm wrong.

You get 7 draft picks/year most of them are busts/off the team/average/mediocre. So you end up with 1-2 good players per draft if you're fortunate (see what I did there, by not using the word "lucky").

If you're extremely fortunate you grab a beast/HOF'er every 5th or 6th draft.

So by that reasoning giving up an "entire" draft for a guy that can become your franchise is actually a bargain price.

A simple look through our draft history in the past decade should set the "worth" of our draft picks... and if Luck becomes what we all think he will, giving up picks to move up and get him makes sense. You will, however, see a whole slew of people here that will blast that idea.

[YardRat]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

THAT is hilarious. Yardie, that's bet worthy.

50K says that if Luck comes out he will be the top QB taken.

I'll take that bet.

[Mad Max]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

A simple look through our draft history in the past decade should set the "worth" of our draft picks... and if Luck becomes what we all think he will, giving up picks to move up and get him makes sense. You will, however, see a whole slew of people here that will blast that idea.

Here's the thing, the numbers I used weren't even based on the Bills ****e draft history. I pretty much was using league average assumptions. Throw the Bills dismal draft record into the mix and the proposition of swapping an entire draft for Luck or an equivalent player should be an absolute no brainer.

As for those who will blast, they should ask themselves pre-blast if they would have given an entire draft up for Rodgers/Clay Matthews/Manning/Brees/Marcia.

The only honest answer would be a resounding YES.

[OpIv37]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

Your right he is... which is exactly what all the other teams that need QB's will think... some of which will have a worse record.

It will take a trade to probably #1 overall to get him. That means, for us, giving up all of our day one and day two picks... and then some most likely.

We like to toy with the idea of getting a stud prospect thinking they will magically drop and then when everyone realizes it won't happen, they a) refuse to want to pay what it takes to move up and get him, or b) brush it off like the player isn't that good anyways. It's a mental game we play on ourselves where we think we are some masterful wheel and dealers who are smarter than the rest of the league... were not.

It's possible.

Here's the problem: we need a QB. Now, I've been one of the people that has been saying for the last two years that there were no available QB's who would make our QB situation any better, and I stand by that.

But, at some point that has to end. At some point, we have to do what it takes to get a QB, and there is zero margin for error, because if we do it for the wrong guy, then we're ****ed for another 5 years.

Would you have given up a 1st and a 3rd for Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees? Knowing what we know now, of course we would. We'd probably give up more than that. So, we just need to wait for the right guy and go for it. IMO Locker is the wrong guy and they gave up too much for him.

The other thing is that, on paper, we shored up our D this year and last year, and on paper, we have some good young receivers. If these situations turn out to be reality, then I'd be even less opposed to throwing draft picks at a QB because it means we have fewer holes to fill elsewhere.

[Mad Max]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

I'll take that bet.

Who's your guy?

I'm on record for being a huge Landry Jones fan, but I don't know if I'd take him over Luck.

So who is he? Jones? Foles? Barkley? Cousins?...and if you so choose why you think he's a better pro prospect than Luck.

[X-Era]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

It's possible.

Here's the problem: we need a QB. Now, I've been one of the people that has been saying for the last two years that there were no available QB's who would make our QB situation any better, and I stand by that.

But, at some point that has to end. At some point, we have to do what it takes to get a QB, and there is zero margin for error, because if we do it for the wrong guy, then we're ****ed for another 5 years.

Would you have given up a 1st and a 3rd for Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees? Knowing what we know now, of course we would. We'd probably give up more than that. So, we just need to wait for the right guy and go for it. IMO Locker is the wrong guy and they gave up too much for him.

The other thing is that, on paper, we shored up our D this year and last year, and on paper, we have some good young receivers. If these situations turn out to be reality, then I'd be even less opposed to throwing draft picks at a QB because it means we have fewer holes to fill elsewhere.

To me I see a few areas where we should focus going into the next draft:

QB- We have a decision to make after this year. Fitz will be a UFA. It's probably our biggest question mark on this team. Will Fitz become all we need and if he does anything less, what do we do. Andrew Luck won't happen and Matt Barkley may not declare. Landry Jones may be an option.

ILB- Poz may be restricted this year and may leave next year. That would make this an unsettled position and even if we keep Poz, we may want to grab a top prospect to go next to him. Shepp will be in play but a highly touted guy like Vontaze Burflict may be a possibility.

WR- Lee isn't getting it done anymore. Stevie will be a UFA and no one else has shown they are worthy of being a #2. A lot could happen there. But Justin Blackmon may make sense.

OT- I'm a huge Hairston fan but neither the LT nor RT spots are truly settled yet. Guys like Matt Kalil, Johnathan Martin, and Riley Reiff may be in play.

Pass rushing OLB- Merriman may never regain form and then even if Moats is one answer we still need another OLB. Donte Paige-Moss may be an option.

[X-Era]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

I'll take that bet.

Done.

[Mad Max]

Re: Little Bit of Luck

To me I see a few areas where we should focus going into the next draft:

QB- We have a decision to make after this year. Fitz will be a UFA. It's probably our biggest question mark on this team. Will Fitz become all we need and if he does anything less, what do we do. Andrew Luck won't happen and Matt Barkley may not declare. Landry Jones may be an option.

SNIP

My worst case scenario is that both Barkley and Jones stay in, which could easily happen. Both could decide to stay in to try to become the first QB taken in 2012. This worry may be moot depending on how the fabled rookie salary cap is structured, but as of now it's in play.

I just don't as of right now (things could change during the season) think the rest of the names in the hat are of the same caliber as the aforementioned three.