New ESPN QB rating - Fitz "around average"

[MidnightVoice]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/41811/how-to-identify-nfls-best-quarterbacks

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season............

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:


•Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.


•Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.


•Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.


•Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.


•Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.


•Poor: Derek Anderon, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

At least there are SOME rated worse than Fitz :D

[ddaryl]

this year will be a tell tale year regarding how good Fitz can be... He's the starter from the get go and got lots of time in with the O last year...

[Ginger Vitis]

Ben Roethlisberger should be in the "well above average"
No friggin way Colt McCoy should be ranked higher than Sam Bradford

[Prov401]

I'd rather have Roethlisberger than Freeman, Vick, Ryan, Manning, and Rivers.

[Luisito23]

Ben Roethlisberger should be in the "well above average"
No friggin way Colt McCoy should be ranked higher than Sam Bradford


LOL, yeah, I don't know what ESPN is smoking, but I do agree with them about Fitz though.

[trapezeus]

sam bradford below average? ok.

interesting that there are a number of 1st round qb's who suck and do well. picking a qb not always a guarantee, except at the end of this year when the bills get andrew luck.

[FlyingDutchman]

Colt Mccoy? Over Cutler, Mcnabb and Bradford? Thaaaaaaaats a joke

[EDS]

You guys are not paying attention. This is not a breakdown of who they think is good or bad, but a statistical measurement.

[ChristopherWalken]

Yeah...LOL - Bradford needs to be a little higher on that list.

[BillsWin]

We can win with an around average QB. Teams have been doing it for years. We just won't win the big game with one. I do like the approach of fixing line and defense first.

[Night Train]

Riight now, that's completely fair. No problem with it.

[wozrob11]

Average sounds good actually im pretty excited to watch Fitz play this year . i havent said that about a bills QB sence Flutie

[Dujek]

Any statistic solely blaming quarterbacks for getting sacked should be rolled up and thrown in the bin.

[Buddo]

It's not about how good they might be, it's about how good they are currently.
Bradford, for a rookie QB, showed a great deal of promise, but even under the 'old' QB rating, didn't actually show up that well, iirc.
It would be interesting to see how much difference this supposedly in depth look, makes over the old one, i.e. who moves up or down a list because of it.

[YardRat]

Lost me at 'Trent Dilfer'.

[Extremebillsfan247]

This is how that list should go in my opinion.

•Top tier: Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees. <- No one else belongs on this list, at least not yet.


•Well above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers. <- This is where some of the above average QBs should be but are not due to injury, and other setbacks.


•Above average: Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, and Mark Sanchez. <- this group is made up of guys who were once really good, but starting to slide, and those on the rise in the league.

•Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Sam Bradford, and Jay Cutler. <- This is the make it or break it group. Anyone on this list could excel beyond it. But could all level out here, or get worse as their careers move forward.

•Below average: Colt McCoy, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, Kerry Collins, Derek Anderon, and Jimmy Clausen. <- a list mostly consisting of guys who didn't pan out or who's best days are far behind them. Your starting QB shouldn't be on this list.


•Poor: This list would be quite extensive.

[X-Era]

•Top tier: Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees. <- No one else belongs on this list, at least not yet. 2 1st rounders, Brees was pick 32 which is now a 1st rounder, and a 6th rounder. 50% are 1st rounders.

•Well above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers. <- This is where some of the above average QBs should be but are not due to injury, and other setbacks.All 5 are 1st rounders. 100%
•Above average: Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, and Mark Sanchez. <- this group is made up of guys who were once really good, but starting to slide, and those on the rise in the league.3 of the 5 are 1st rounders. 60%
•Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Sam Bradford, and Jay Cutler. <- This is the make it or break it group. Anyone on this list could excel beyond it. But could all level out here, or get worse as their careers move forward. 2 of the 6 are 1st rounders. 33%
•Below average: Colt McCoy, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, Kerry Collins, Derek Anderon, and Jimmy Clausen. <- a list mostly consisting of guys who didn't pan out or who's best days are far behind them. Your starting QB shouldn't be on this list.
5 of the 12 are 1st rounders. 42%

Thoughts?

[Ginger Vitis]

Thoughts?

You're more likely to get a franchise QB in the 1st Round than any other Round?

[EDS]

This is how that list should go in my opinion.

•Top tier: Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees. <- No one else belongs on this list, at least not yet.


•Well above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers. <- This is where some of the above average QBs should be but are not due to injury, and other setbacks.


•Above average: Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, and Mark Sanchez. <- this group is made up of guys who were once really good, but starting to slide, and those on the rise in the league.

•Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Sam Bradford, and Jay Cutler. <- This is the make it or break it group. Anyone on this list could excel beyond it. But could all level out here, or get worse as their careers move forward.

•Below average: Colt McCoy, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jon Kitna, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Alex Smith, Kerry Collins, Derek Anderon, and Jimmy Clausen. <- a list mostly consisting of guys who didn't pan out or who's best days are far behind them. Your starting QB shouldn't be on this list.


•Poor: This list would be quite extensive.

On what basis do you rank Fitz and Hasselback above Gerrard? Schaub and Hasselback should be flipped in terms of their groupings.

[Cleve]

I would say Fitzpatrick is average, or slightly towards the bottom of average. He's a workmanlike QB, but not spectacular. Didn't he rank 20th in the NFL last season, or somewhere in that vicinity, based on QB rating?

Also, if you're a decent player (like Fitzpatrick is) on an overall terrible team surrounded by scrubs (and the Bills the last few seasons have been terrible) the fans tend to rate such a player higher than the numbers warrant - the one ray of sunshine in a cloudy sky.

If the team is ever going to win two or more games in the post-season, we will need an above average or better QB - going by these rankings. Fitzpatrick just isn't going to do it.

Fitzpatrick remains what he is... a good solid backup QB, but not a good starter. And 2011 appears to be shaping up as yet another "rebuilding" season, in a seemingly endless cycle, much like the previous 10 or 11 have been

[mrbojanglezs]

Guys this is a statistically new and improved qb rating algorithm that this is from nit opinion

[X-Era]

You're more likely to get a franchise QB in the 1st Round than any other Round?Seems reasonable from that list.