Just how cheap are the Bills really?

[Blogabills]

Sorry to self-promote here, but I know the amount of money the Bills spend is an ongoing concern amongst Bills fans. I got curious as to what the actual figures were, how the Bills ranked, and how much winning correlates to payroll. Just finished up a piece on my blog detailing my findings.

I'd love any and all feedback you guys might have.

Some points from it;

The Bills were 24th in the league in spending from 2002-2003 to 2009-2010.

The Bills spent about $15 million per win during this time. The Colts and Pats each spent around $9 million per win during the same time (not a huge surprise there).

Statistically, there is a very weak (but statistically significant) correlation between money spent and wins gained, and playoff teams spend a significant (though not by much) amount more than non-playoff teams spend.

There's much more to be read on Blog-a-Bills, but just thought it would be of interest to us as Bills fans.

I never was one to bash Ralph all that much for being a spendthrift, but the numbers don't lie, and these aren't pretty.

[Bill Cody]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

To me the real test of an owner being cheap is what he does with good players finishing rookie contracts- does he resign them? And if the team is near to being good does he go out and sign free agents? It's hard to judge the Bills with the roster we have it really is.

[kingJofNYC]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Good work dude, enjoyed it!

Drafting has gotten us into this mess. Ralph can definitely do more on the spending side, but drafting is where we've failed. Since Ralph put the FO in place he should get more blame for that than his lack of spending.

[mysticsoto]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Sorry to self-promote here, but I know the amount of money the Bills spend is an ongoing concern amongst Bills fans. I got curious as to what the actual figures were, how the Bills ranked, and how much winning correlates to payroll. Just finished up a piece on my blog detailing my findings.

I'd love any and all feedback you guys might have.

Some points from it;

The Bills were 24th in the league in spending from 2002-2003 to 2009-2010.

The Bills spent about $15 million per win during this time. The Colts and Pats each spent around $9 million per win during the same time (not a huge surprise there).

Statistically, there is a very weak (but statistically significant) correlation between money spent and wins gained, and playoff teams spend a significant (though not by much) amount more than non-playoff teams spend.

There's much more to be read on Blog-a-Bills, but just thought it would be of interest to us as Bills fans.

I never was one to bash Ralph all that much for being a spendthrift, but the numbers don't lie, and these aren't pretty.

I'm surprised that you didn't mention that giving we haven't won much and been to the playoffs in over a decade, means we've been in the lower ranks of drafting (which means higher spending on draft picks) yet we are still among the bottom spenders...

[Blogabills]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Good work dude, enjoyed it!

Drafting has gotten us into this mess. Ralph can definitely do more on the spending side, but drafting is where we've failed. Since Ralph put the FO in place he should get more blame for that than his lack of spending.

Thanks for the positive feedback man! I always appreciate it.

I hope to begin a series on the draft in a few weeks. Did an in-depth analysis of the 2004-2008 drafts with a fellow stats freak (who is a Giants fan, unfortch) to try and come up with our own ranking system which took into account games played, years started, all pro and pro bowl selections, the AV stat from pro-football-reference, and more.

Our ranking system bore out what we thought it might: The Bills were 22nd. Numbers 1 and 2 for that timeframe were the Cowboys and Falcons.

Thanks again for reading and tell your friends!

[Blogabills]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

I'm surprised that you didn't mention that giving we haven't won much and been to the playoffs in over a decade, means we've been in the lower ranks of drafting (which means higher spending on draft picks) yet we are still among the bottom spenders...

That's actually a phenomenal point and one I didn't think of.

I was thinking of those higher draft picks but analyzing with that would've meant another week or so of crunching data before writing.

But I absolutely cede the point that the perpetual "good" draft spot the Bills (and other crappy teams have) would impact these results.

[YardRat]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

That's actually a phenomenal point and one I didn't think of.

I was thinking of those higher draft picks but analyzing with that would've meant another week or so of crunching data before writing.

But I absolutely cede the point that the perpetual "good" draft spot the Bills (and other crappy teams have) would impact these results.

Given the time frame (8 seasons) is large enough for teams to 'cycle' between peaks and valleys, the data will most likely show insignificant changes.

It's not like the Bills were consistently picking top 5 over that period.

[ddaryl]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

I'm surprised that you didn't mention that giving we haven't won much and been to the playoffs in over a decade, means we've been in the lower ranks of drafting (which means higher spending on draft picks) yet we are still among the bottom spenders...

too many 7-9 seasons mixed in there and when we did draft early we drafted very poorly so most of those picks were released before they re-ante'd..

[mysticsoto]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

too many 7-9 seasons mixed in there and when we did draft early we drafted very poorly so most of those picks were released before they re-ante'd..

But them being released would be part of the point he's trying to make. We remain cheap, don't bring in FAs of high caliber that typically cost more, nor do we always work to keep what we have when we do have something good.

[Jan Reimers]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Where we've been really cheap is in our hiring of qualified GMs, head coaches, and other football people who have the ability to evaluate college players. This, coupled with our cheapness in free agency (both with our own players as well as those from other teams) is a deadly combination.

The result is 11, and soon to be 12, consecutive seasons without a single playoff game.

[ddaryl]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

But them being released would be part of the point he's trying to make. We remain cheap, don't bring in FAs of high caliber that typically cost more, nor do we always work to keep what we have when we do have something good.

I think you missed my point... We didn't draft that highly for many of those years., and when we did draft highly we drafted poorly and released these players because they sucked or got into off field troubles.

I am 10000% against paying FA excessive money just to play in Buffalo.. I don't believe it works unless you've built a team from the ground up to the point where 1 or 2 top FA's in positions of need can put you over the top. I don't believe aging vets who are marginally better then what we already have are worth pursuing either.

Until this team is functioning well there just isn't much that can be done to make it better quickly... Over paying FA"s like Dockery and Walker don't fix the problem, they just rise you up to mediocrity.

So we are a slave to the next 2 or 3 drafts and hoping we continue to draft well under Nix...

I DO EXPECT extensions for a few of our players during the season... so does that count as spending money ?

[Blogabills]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

I think you missed my point... We didn't draft that highly for many of those years., and when we did draft highly we drafted poorly and released these players because they sucked or got into off field troubles.

I am 10000% against paying FA excessive money just to play in Buffalo.. I don't believe it works unless you've built a team from the ground up to the point where 1 or 2 top FA's in positions of need can put you over the top. I don't believe aging vets who are marginally better then what we already have are worth pursuing either.

Until this team is functioning well there just isn't much that can be done to make it better quickly... Over paying FA"s like Dockery and Walker don't fix the problem, they just rise you up to mediocrity.

So we are a slave to the next 2 or 3 drafts and hoping we continue to draft well under Nix...

I DO EXPECT extensions for a few of our players during the season... so does that count as spending money ?

I agree wholeheartedly on not overpaying FA's (which is almost what you have to do in order to get them here) unless you're dead certain they're THE missing piece to a SB.

Building through the draft and supplementing with the right FA's, to me, is the way to go. NE drafted right and got some players in FA to help them over the top (well, this year is a bit excessive). Green Bay last year. Indianapolis almost always builds through the draft, no easy feat when you need WRs to meet Peyton's stringent demands.

The problem, as has been pointed out numerous times, is not with the strategy, it is with the execution. We know it hasn't been executed well in years. I don't think enough time has passed to judge how Buddy's been doing building through the draft, but he has a plan and he's sticking to it and I can respect that.

I don't expect the turnaround to happen in one year. I expect it will take a few years of taking the right guys. unfortunately, we won't know about that for a few years, though I do like the direction on a lot of these players.

As for the re-signing comment, I agree with you on that too, but the Kelsay thing was just wayyyy over the top.

[kingJofNYC]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Thanks for the positive feedback man! I always appreciate it.

I hope to begin a series on the draft in a few weeks. Did an in-depth analysis of the 2004-2008 drafts with a fellow stats freak (who is a Giants fan, unfortch) to try and come up with our own ranking system which took into account games played, years started, all pro and pro bowl selections, the AV stat from pro-football-reference, and more.

Our ranking system bore out what we thought it might: The Bills were 22nd. Numbers 1 and 2 for that timeframe were the Cowboys and Falcons.

Thanks again for reading and tell your friends!

Looking forward to it, make sure to keep us updated.

Where we've been really cheap is in our hiring of qualified GMs, head coaches, and other football people who have the ability to evaluate college players. This, coupled with our cheapness in free agency (both with our own players as well as those from other teams) is a deadly combination.

The result is 11, and soon to be 12, consecutive seasons without a single playoff game.

Excellent point. At least they brought in new blood this season with the scouting department overhaul, hopefully that helps.

[Marvelous]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

Its a downside esp for us lifers who were around in early 90's because its been losing since. Without micro disecting our spending i can say we are very cheap and if lack of free agents isnt prof enough, look at out staffing. Our star players tend to be good draftees on their rook contracts like kyle williams. I was sooo super stokd and surprised hn we resigned moulds. I was prepared for the worst. Tko spikes comes to mind and london fletcher. We coulda really teally uaed a stud pash rusher last year since we losy schobel. I understand not breaking bank for julous pepper but we did need something. Atleast put kelsay back on the lineinstead of watching hom turn lik je wearing the bat suit...

I have a 1995 AFC eaat champs pennant,
Our most current one too :p
- winning is a perk!

[mysticsoto]

Re: Just how cheap are the Bills really?

I think you missed my point... We didn't draft that highly for many of those years., and when we did draft highly we drafted poorly and released these players because they sucked or got into off field troubles.

I am 10000% against paying FA excessive money just to play in Buffalo.. I don't believe it works unless you've built a team from the ground up to the point where 1 or 2 top FA's in positions of need can put you over the top. I don't believe aging vets who are marginally better then what we already have are worth pursuing either.

Until this team is functioning well there just isn't much that can be done to make it better quickly... Over paying FA"s like Dockery and Walker don't fix the problem, they just rise you up to mediocrity.

So we are a slave to the next 2 or 3 drafts and hoping we continue to draft well under Nix...

I DO EXPECT extensions for a few of our players during the season... so does that count as spending money ?

I don't necessarily disagree with that...however, had we overpaid slightly and gotten Clabo, for instance, our team would be in much better shape than it is right now. Given that the organization's record on bad picks, you need to supplement and fix the holes we have thru FA. Expecting us to have a good draft year after year to be able to build thru the draft is not likely considering our record.

In the meantime we get losing season after losing season...I say we try something different.