Tatonka
06-25-2003, 06:26 PM
Bonus POD 6/24 - RB Travis Henry, Buffalo Bills
by Jason Wood and Chris Smith - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
http://footballguys.com/03pod_travishenry.htm
Wood's Thoughts:
Rarely if ever can I recall being as wrong about a player's prospects as I was last year with Travis Henry. Coming off a season where he averaged 3.4 yards per carry and looked lost at times, I expected him to be placed into a platoon situation by the time the season opened. Well, obviously that never happened and Henry proceeded to rush for 1,438 yards and 13 touchdowns, also catching 43 passes and a score. So what can we expect this season?
All signs point toward an increased emphasis on the running game this season in Buffalo; which can only bode well for Travis Henry. Witness:
The departure of Peerless Price - Peerless Price's trade to Atlanta sends a shockwave throughout the Bills passing attack. While second year receiver Josh Reed appears capable of holding his own in the starting lineup, it's highly speculative to think he can approach what Price did in 2002. Combine that with the fact that neither Bobby Shaw nor James Jett can be counted on for the same type of production that Reed gave as WR3 last season, and this team HAS to be more focused on the run.
An improved defensive unit - The Bills added Takeo Spikes, Jeff Posey, Sam Adams and rookie Chris Kelsay to the defensive unit. The Bills hope that an improved defense will allow them to pound the ball on offense more to control the clock.
The addition of Mark Campbell, an excellent blocking tight end - Mark Campbell, an excellent blocker, replaces Jay Riemersma, who was more of a pass catcher.
Loss of Larry Centers - Larry Centers departs, which leaves 43 receptions (the same amount as Henry) unaccounted for this year. With the Bills planning on running the same offensive system, look for the backs, particularly Henry to pick up the slack.
Offensive line returning intact - The biggest factor in improved line play is cohesion through playing time. The Bills return the same starting line from last season, and one should expect more effective production as a result.
Bledsoe on board with running the ball more - Bledsoe understands that the Bills will be a better team if he doesn't have to pass the ball as much; balance is the key. Just two weeks ago he said, "If I sit back and throw it 20 times a game and we're effective at that and running the ball well and winning games, you're not going to hear any complaints out of me. That's a great style of football. It's a winning style of football."
Positives
Henry brings the total package to the game, proving himself an able receiver and excellent goal line threat; also able to take the pounding of 20+ carries per game
Bills are expected to emphasize the run more this season, and the aforementioned factors lend credence to that assertion
Henry is in his contract year, and knows that a big payday is awaiting him somewhere next year, if not in Buffalo
Negatives
Fumble problems (11 fumbles, 8 lost in 2002) could derail an otherwise promising career
Presence of Olandis Gary and Willis McGahee potentially could vulture carries as the year wears on, particularly if the team isn't set on re-signing Henry long term
The loss of Price & Riemersma could translate into a much less effective passing game, allowing opposing defenses to put 8 men in the box
Final Thoughts
As I look at Henry's situation this year, I see a lot more evidence to suggest that his role will increase than the other way around. Luckily, the hype behind drafting McGahee in the 1st round coupled with Henry's lack of a new contract could create some uncertainty in people's minds on draft day. As a result, Henry could very well fall to you in the second round, offering great value. I wouldn't hesitate to have Henry as my RB1, and he would be an ideal RB2 if your draft unfolded that way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smith's Thoughts:
Travis Henry isn't an explosive player such as Deuce McAllister or LaDainian Tomlinson. He isn't a threat to take the ball on an eighty-yard touchdown burst and won't wow you with his athletic ability. However Henry is a strong running back with good size and thrives on carrying the ball 20+ times per game. Last year, Henry carried the ball 325 times for a terrific 4.4 yards per carry average and 13 touchdowns. He has enough burst to make defenders miss and the leg-strength needed to break through tackles. Many fans of college football considered him a better prospect than Jamal Lewis and last season Henry was able to showcase those talents. He is also a strong contributor in the passing game with 43 receptions during the 2002 season.
There are two real concerns with Henry going into this campaign. The first concern I have is his fumbling issue. 11 fumbles last season (the Bills lost 8 of them) is inexcusable and if it doesn't improve could easily cost him some playing time at the end of the bench. In comparing him to another fumble-prone player Ricky Williams, it is clear that Henry does have a legitimate problem. Last season, Williams fumbled 7 times on the season and has never fumbled more than 8 times on a season. Nothing will frustrate a coach more than having his perfect game plan ruined by a player having difficulties holding onto the football. The second concern I have is very minor because it doesn't look as though it will come into play until week ten, if at all. The team drafted Willis McGahee in round one despite his knee injury and I am sure the team would like to get him some playing time once his knee gets a clean bill of health. If the Bills aren't in the playoff hunt by week eleven or so, I wouldn't be surprised to see McGahee getting 8-15 carries a game to get his feet wet at the NFL level. That could really drop Henry's value down just when a fantasy owner needs him the worst. At this time though, the threat of McGahee is very small and I wouldn't avoid drafting Henry because of it.
Positives
He thrives on getting 20+ carries per game
Good all-around back with quickness, strength and the ability to make defenders miss
Is effective in the passing game
Will want to have a big 2003 season to maximize his value for the 2004 season when McGahee is healthy
Negatives
His fumbling problems are well documented and could pose a problem if it costs the team a victory in the dying minutes of a game
Isn't an explosive player and won't break off long runs very often
Final Thoughts
I have Travis Henry right on the cusp of breaking into my top tier of fantasy running backs this season (#11 on my cheat sheet). He would make a solid first running back for a fantasy squad and an unbelievable second back. I see him with a few less touchdowns in 2003 but he could certainly rise up to match his totals of a year ago. If he is there in the early second round I will have no problem selecting him to my squad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:
To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:
RB Travis Henry, Buffalo Bills
Keith R:
"I really like Henry this year. My only question is whether BUF has faith in him. But I expect that question to be answered early in the affirmative after he picks up the slack left by Price."
smlevin:
"Compared to the much easier schedules facing Faulk, Alexander, Holmes, and even LT, Ricky, and Portis, Henry goes to the 7th or 8th best RB on my board. Top 5 - I don't think so; Top-10; almost assuredly."
MarshallRob:
"Buffalo's offense exploded last year but declined significantly in the 2d half of the season. Henry's declined as well, though not as sharply. The Bills of the last 8 games might be a truer reflection of how they will perform this year. They do play in a division with some very tough defenses."
Billy Barou:
"BUF has no depth at QB and Bledsoe has been hurt before. Reed steps into the #2 WR slot but probably is 1 year away from seriously breaking out. No capable #3 WR in the fold now, which was a good spot last year & would have been a great spot this year for Reed. Gary can legitimately steal carries if he stays healthy."
Res Ipsa Loquitor:
"McGahee should spend the majority of the season strengthening his knee, and Olandis Gary has not proven he can carry the ball for 16 games, so Henry's job is probably safe for this year. But unless Henry can get his fumblitus under control this season, he might be the odd man out by this time next year."
Projections:
Source Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec TDs Fantasy
Footballguys 325 1,365 10 65 481 2 257
Jason Wood 315 1,305 10 50 350 1 232
Chris Smith 330 1,419 9 40 405 1 243
P.O.D. Consensus 310 1,282 11 44 367 2 243
by Jason Wood and Chris Smith - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
http://footballguys.com/03pod_travishenry.htm
Wood's Thoughts:
Rarely if ever can I recall being as wrong about a player's prospects as I was last year with Travis Henry. Coming off a season where he averaged 3.4 yards per carry and looked lost at times, I expected him to be placed into a platoon situation by the time the season opened. Well, obviously that never happened and Henry proceeded to rush for 1,438 yards and 13 touchdowns, also catching 43 passes and a score. So what can we expect this season?
All signs point toward an increased emphasis on the running game this season in Buffalo; which can only bode well for Travis Henry. Witness:
The departure of Peerless Price - Peerless Price's trade to Atlanta sends a shockwave throughout the Bills passing attack. While second year receiver Josh Reed appears capable of holding his own in the starting lineup, it's highly speculative to think he can approach what Price did in 2002. Combine that with the fact that neither Bobby Shaw nor James Jett can be counted on for the same type of production that Reed gave as WR3 last season, and this team HAS to be more focused on the run.
An improved defensive unit - The Bills added Takeo Spikes, Jeff Posey, Sam Adams and rookie Chris Kelsay to the defensive unit. The Bills hope that an improved defense will allow them to pound the ball on offense more to control the clock.
The addition of Mark Campbell, an excellent blocking tight end - Mark Campbell, an excellent blocker, replaces Jay Riemersma, who was more of a pass catcher.
Loss of Larry Centers - Larry Centers departs, which leaves 43 receptions (the same amount as Henry) unaccounted for this year. With the Bills planning on running the same offensive system, look for the backs, particularly Henry to pick up the slack.
Offensive line returning intact - The biggest factor in improved line play is cohesion through playing time. The Bills return the same starting line from last season, and one should expect more effective production as a result.
Bledsoe on board with running the ball more - Bledsoe understands that the Bills will be a better team if he doesn't have to pass the ball as much; balance is the key. Just two weeks ago he said, "If I sit back and throw it 20 times a game and we're effective at that and running the ball well and winning games, you're not going to hear any complaints out of me. That's a great style of football. It's a winning style of football."
Positives
Henry brings the total package to the game, proving himself an able receiver and excellent goal line threat; also able to take the pounding of 20+ carries per game
Bills are expected to emphasize the run more this season, and the aforementioned factors lend credence to that assertion
Henry is in his contract year, and knows that a big payday is awaiting him somewhere next year, if not in Buffalo
Negatives
Fumble problems (11 fumbles, 8 lost in 2002) could derail an otherwise promising career
Presence of Olandis Gary and Willis McGahee potentially could vulture carries as the year wears on, particularly if the team isn't set on re-signing Henry long term
The loss of Price & Riemersma could translate into a much less effective passing game, allowing opposing defenses to put 8 men in the box
Final Thoughts
As I look at Henry's situation this year, I see a lot more evidence to suggest that his role will increase than the other way around. Luckily, the hype behind drafting McGahee in the 1st round coupled with Henry's lack of a new contract could create some uncertainty in people's minds on draft day. As a result, Henry could very well fall to you in the second round, offering great value. I wouldn't hesitate to have Henry as my RB1, and he would be an ideal RB2 if your draft unfolded that way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smith's Thoughts:
Travis Henry isn't an explosive player such as Deuce McAllister or LaDainian Tomlinson. He isn't a threat to take the ball on an eighty-yard touchdown burst and won't wow you with his athletic ability. However Henry is a strong running back with good size and thrives on carrying the ball 20+ times per game. Last year, Henry carried the ball 325 times for a terrific 4.4 yards per carry average and 13 touchdowns. He has enough burst to make defenders miss and the leg-strength needed to break through tackles. Many fans of college football considered him a better prospect than Jamal Lewis and last season Henry was able to showcase those talents. He is also a strong contributor in the passing game with 43 receptions during the 2002 season.
There are two real concerns with Henry going into this campaign. The first concern I have is his fumbling issue. 11 fumbles last season (the Bills lost 8 of them) is inexcusable and if it doesn't improve could easily cost him some playing time at the end of the bench. In comparing him to another fumble-prone player Ricky Williams, it is clear that Henry does have a legitimate problem. Last season, Williams fumbled 7 times on the season and has never fumbled more than 8 times on a season. Nothing will frustrate a coach more than having his perfect game plan ruined by a player having difficulties holding onto the football. The second concern I have is very minor because it doesn't look as though it will come into play until week ten, if at all. The team drafted Willis McGahee in round one despite his knee injury and I am sure the team would like to get him some playing time once his knee gets a clean bill of health. If the Bills aren't in the playoff hunt by week eleven or so, I wouldn't be surprised to see McGahee getting 8-15 carries a game to get his feet wet at the NFL level. That could really drop Henry's value down just when a fantasy owner needs him the worst. At this time though, the threat of McGahee is very small and I wouldn't avoid drafting Henry because of it.
Positives
He thrives on getting 20+ carries per game
Good all-around back with quickness, strength and the ability to make defenders miss
Is effective in the passing game
Will want to have a big 2003 season to maximize his value for the 2004 season when McGahee is healthy
Negatives
His fumbling problems are well documented and could pose a problem if it costs the team a victory in the dying minutes of a game
Isn't an explosive player and won't break off long runs very often
Final Thoughts
I have Travis Henry right on the cusp of breaking into my top tier of fantasy running backs this season (#11 on my cheat sheet). He would make a solid first running back for a fantasy squad and an unbelievable second back. I see him with a few less touchdowns in 2003 but he could certainly rise up to match his totals of a year ago. If he is there in the early second round I will have no problem selecting him to my squad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:
To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:
RB Travis Henry, Buffalo Bills
Keith R:
"I really like Henry this year. My only question is whether BUF has faith in him. But I expect that question to be answered early in the affirmative after he picks up the slack left by Price."
smlevin:
"Compared to the much easier schedules facing Faulk, Alexander, Holmes, and even LT, Ricky, and Portis, Henry goes to the 7th or 8th best RB on my board. Top 5 - I don't think so; Top-10; almost assuredly."
MarshallRob:
"Buffalo's offense exploded last year but declined significantly in the 2d half of the season. Henry's declined as well, though not as sharply. The Bills of the last 8 games might be a truer reflection of how they will perform this year. They do play in a division with some very tough defenses."
Billy Barou:
"BUF has no depth at QB and Bledsoe has been hurt before. Reed steps into the #2 WR slot but probably is 1 year away from seriously breaking out. No capable #3 WR in the fold now, which was a good spot last year & would have been a great spot this year for Reed. Gary can legitimately steal carries if he stays healthy."
Res Ipsa Loquitor:
"McGahee should spend the majority of the season strengthening his knee, and Olandis Gary has not proven he can carry the ball for 16 games, so Henry's job is probably safe for this year. But unless Henry can get his fumblitus under control this season, he might be the odd man out by this time next year."
Projections:
Source Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec TDs Fantasy
Footballguys 325 1,365 10 65 481 2 257
Jason Wood 315 1,305 10 50 350 1 232
Chris Smith 330 1,419 9 40 405 1 243
P.O.D. Consensus 310 1,282 11 44 367 2 243