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Ingtar33
09-01-2011, 08:01 PM
It’s about that time of the year again, the new football season is about to start and for 30 or so teams the season is filled with promise and opportunity. Unfortunately our Buffalo Bills are not one of those teams. To the long suffering Buffalo Bills fans we have little to look forward to this season.

the above was from my 2010 preview (which you can read here (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=195278)) and unfortunately all of that remains as true today as it was 12 months ago. Because I'm uninspired by the team, and last years post can sum up most of my feelings about this team today i'm going to plagiarize heavily from myself in this post (all in italics is plagiarized word for word from the 2010 preview).

Like previous years (I’ve probably done one of these threads every year the board has been up) I'll give you a brief breakdown of the season as we can probably expect it to unfold.

Since the ultimate goal of every football team is winning the superbowl we should expect the Bills to at least get to the playoffs or compete for them every season. Unfortunately it's been a long time since the Bills seriously made a run at the playoffs, and even longer since they were legit superbowl threats. Unfortunately this year will not break the trend, and the lone question us Bills fans should consider is how low in next year's draft will we be. We're in for a long season fellow fans, and all I can say to make it better is we might see a ray of light by the end of it.

So what do I see when I see this year's Bills team? I see a team with an alright running game, and an average at best passing game; both of which will be strangled to death by an atrocious offensive line. I see a team that has the makings of a strong defensive line, and terrible to mediocre linebackers (with the exception of Merriman), who will at times struggle generating a passrush, and a confused and disjointed secondary. This is a team which will finish probably in the bottom 10 for defense (both yards and points, assuming of course the line doesn't carry this defense) and probably in the bottom 10 for offense as well (both yards and points).

On the bright side, Dareus and Williams give us hope that the best possition for the team won't be punter again this year.

now onto the season prediction... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season record in 16 of the last 18 years (the two exceptions being 2001 and 2010). For 3 of the last 6 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 18 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note I won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest, and would have won her 2009 contest had the Colts not thrown the last game of the season...)

W1 @ KC - L - 0-1
W2 vs OAK - W - 1-1
W3 vs NE - L - 0-2
W4 @ CIN - W - 2-2
W5 vs PHI - L - 2-3
W6 @ NYG - L - 2-4
W7 BYE
W8 vs WAS - L - 2-5
W9 vs NYJ - L - 2-6
W10 @ DAL - L - 2-7
W11 @ MIA - W - 3-7
W12 @ NYJ - L - 3-8
W13 vs TEN - L - 3-9
W14 @ SD - L - 3-10
W15 vs MIA - W - 4-10
W16 vs DEN - W - 5-10
W17 @ NE - L - 5-11

5-11

We'll do better this year just because the schedule is filled with too many beatable teams, and we're not "Cincinnati Bengals" bad; the turning point will be the week 8 game against the Redskins. we win that game and we might threaten 7 wins. we lose it and we'll probably be scrapping 3-5 wins out of this mess... but this will be yet another lost season, in which we'll be drafting around 8th...

TigerJ
09-01-2011, 09:26 PM
I hope we're a little better than you think, but I can't say I think you're wrong.

psubills62
09-01-2011, 09:42 PM
Seems reasonable, as I guessed 6-10. I think there are a number of winnable games on there, though I don't believe we'll win all of them (@KC, vs. Wash and vs. Tenn are the ones I think we could and maybe should win).

Ingtar - did you watch the game tonight? Just curious as to your thoughts on Sheppard. I didn't watch him much specifically, and was doing other things for a good chunk of the 2nd half, but saw a few plays where he looked decent, one in pass coverage, two in run defense. Just maybe this kid can see the field this year and impress at LB, since you seem so down on them. I like to think we'll be adequate at LB considering the DL they'll have in front of them.

SeatownBillsFan21
09-01-2011, 11:18 PM
3-13 would be my guess

Thanks for the read Ingtar hears to another epic Buffalo Bills season.

NOT THE DUDE...
09-02-2011, 01:47 AM
dude 9-7 10-6 maybe. your way off you right wing nut!!!!!

Lone Stranger
09-02-2011, 07:05 AM
It's difficult to argue against your logic. 5 wins is optimistic but also possible. Another long season.

DraftBoy
09-02-2011, 07:24 AM
I think the Oakland game is swing game, we could win it or lose it very easily. Will be a good barometer match up in Week 2.

I dont know if we'll sweep Miami but Ill take it, sound logic on the prediciton, I said myself this is a 3-5 win team.

DraftBoy
09-02-2011, 07:25 AM
dude 9-7 10-6 maybe. your way off you right wing nut!!!!!

Please leave politics in the appropriate forum.

Ingtar33
09-02-2011, 08:36 AM
dude 9-7 10-6 maybe. your way off you right wing nut!!!!!


where do we get 9-10 wins? Red are the games we have no chance in hell winning, Green the games i think we can win. Black the games that could go either way, though if you asked me i'd say we probably will lose.

W1 @ KC
W2 vs OAK
W3 vs NE
W4 @ CIN
W5 vs PHI
W6 @ NYG
W7 BYE
W8 vs WAS
W9 vs NYJ
W10 @ DAL
W11 @ MIA
W12 @ NYJ
W13 vs TEN
W14 @ SD
W15 vs MIA
W16 vs DEN
W17 @ NE

that's 8 losses before the season even starts. literally, if i bet on football, those are games I'd bet the house they'd lose before the season starts. I only see 4 probable wins on the schedule and 4 wildcards (though we'll likely be beat).

While teams sometimes beat teams they have no business beating those wins usually even out at the end of the season. so even if they beat say... washington they'll probably drop one to say... miami and balance it out in the end.


There just aren't 9 or 10 wins possible with our roster or our schedule.

UPDATE: we're lucky 3 of the "wildcard" games are at home, that means imho the absolute ceiling to our season is 7 wins (if we get every break this year we'll be a 7 win team), though i say a more likely ceiling is 6 wins. meanwhile i'm pretty confident 4 wins is the basement for the season. 4-12, 5-11, 6-10 ~ is where i'd put my money on the winner for the pick contest. he'll be one of the people that predicted one of those final records.

Night Train
09-02-2011, 10:36 AM
That's fair.

Fix the D this year. Concentrate on the O next off-season. QB & OL.

Historian
09-02-2011, 11:08 AM
I think they'll take one from Miami and the Jets, the Bengals, and Broncos.

If we steal one of the two first games?

5-11.

If we don't?

It's the Jauron Trifecta all over, only worse:

4-12

Dozerdog
09-02-2011, 11:17 AM
Good news- they wont have a losing record by my birthday


Bad news- they get hot in December and miss out on Luck :(

DraftBoy
09-02-2011, 11:24 AM
Good news- they wont have a losing record by my birthday


Bad news- they get hot in December and miss out on Luck :(

Id rather get hot and miss out on taking him then get the #1 pick and he returns to school.

HAMMER
09-02-2011, 01:54 PM
10-6, wildcard berth, Bills make improbable run to the Super Bowl, and lose yet again.

ddaryl
09-02-2011, 02:22 PM
I'm still thinking this team can win 6-7 games with this schedule.. We can beat KC and Dallas

Ingtar33
01-01-2012, 08:01 PM
somethings right, somethings wrong. overall i wish i hadn't extended my "prediction" streak to 17 out of 19

THE END OF ALL DAYS
01-01-2012, 09:24 PM
Good prognostication Ing..... Sucks to be right all the time,eh? :)

YardRat
01-01-2012, 09:30 PM
We'll do better this year just because the schedule is filled with too many beatable teams, and we're not "Cincinnati Bengals" bad; the turning point will be the week 8 game against the Redskins. we win that game and we might threaten 7 wins. we lose it and we'll probably be scrapping 3-5 wins out of this mess... but this will be yet another lost season, in which we'll be drafting around 8th...

Too bad we weren't...