Beware the bye week

[psubills62]

Usually it would seem that coming off of a bye week is a positive thing, per logical reasoning, but this year it is not.

Thus far in the season, teams coming off of the bye week are 3-9, a winning rate of 0.250. Now, we of course have to put these numbers into context, especially since it's mostly some of the worst teams in the league who have played coming off byes currently. Pending Baltimore's game against Jacksonville Monday, the teams who have played after bye weeks are currently 28-43, a win rate of 0.394. It's not a huge difference, especially given the sample size of games, but it's large enough to take notice.

Also something to be aware of is the rate at which they are scoring. In the games after each team's bye week, that team scored an average of 4.9 points fewer than their average points scored in the other games. Again, we need to put it into context. Only three teams scored more points than their per-game average after the bye week: Cleveland (L), Arizona (L), and Kansas City (W). The former two scored a combined 1.8 points more than their average, while Kansas City really skewed the numbers by scoring a whopping 12.6 points more than average. It should be noted that two of those TD's were interceptions for touchdowns, and Kansas City was the beneficiary of 6 total turnovers. They only managed to score two other TD's, despite four other turnovers. Not a good sign. On the other hand, four teams scored more than 7 points less than their per-game average in other contests.

I wanted to make this post so that people are aware of the trend around the league. Teams are not doing well coming off of their bye weeks, particularly their offensive production. Since that's something we rely on, I really hope Buffalo can buck this trend and put a lot of points on the board. But just because it's a bye week, don't assume Buffalo will fix a lot of things. Teams this year seem to be going backwards coming out of their byes, though I have no clue why.

And don't take this for an excuse thread. There's no excuses for a team to come out that flat after the bye. I'm hoping our team is a shining testament to good coaching next weekend.

[BertSquirtgum]

**** all that noise. Bills are going to come back from the bye week and go on a tear. Fitzpatrick is going to pull his head out of his ass and blow the redskins and jets away.

[casdhf]

But what about teams coming off the bye week that are playing a home game in a different country?

[psubills62]

But what about teams coming off the bye week that are playing a home game in a different country?
Well, it hasn't happened yet, so no available data :idunno:

[northernbillfan]

Well the Bills are 7-2-1 ATS coming off a bye so I hope the are the exception and not the rule.

[better days]

The reason for this is because of the new CBA, teams now are forced to give players 5 days off in a row during bye week so teams can not use this time to get better as they did in the past.

[Coach Sal]

The reason for this is because of the new CBA, teams now are forced to give players 5 days off in a row during bye week so teams can not use this time to get better as they did in the past.

It's actually 4, but I totally agree and was going to post this, as well.

Used to be able to take a couple extra days to prepare for next opponent. Really can't do that anymore. Plus, guys go away on vacations, etc during bye now and get away from football for 4 days. When you are in a routine, sometimes it's tough to get that back right away.

I'm not worried abut the Bills, though. I think this bye sets up well for them. Redskins not playing well, have to deal with injury questions this week, have to deal with QB questions/unknowns, and I think Chan is the kind of coach who will self-scout enough to see what he has to change for the Skins not to focus on Bills tendencies.

[theanswer74]

What teams are losing?

I know the Chiefs blew out the Raiders, and the Chiefs had a bye. The Chargers were all over the Jets, they came out flying and then cooled off. The Redskins got blown out by Eagles, but not a shock.

The only shocking loss may have been Titans vs Texans, but is it that crayz to think the Texans would blow out the Titans?

[better days]

It's actually 4, but I totally agree and was going to post this, as well.

Used to be able to take a couple extra days to prepare for next opponent. Really can't do that anymore. Plus, guys go away on vacations, etc during bye now and get away from football for 4 days. When you are in a routine, sometimes it's tough to get that back right away.

I'm not worried abut the Bills, though. I think this bye sets up well for them. Redskins not playing well, have to deal with injury questions this week, have to deal with QB questions/unknowns, and I think Chan is the kind of coach who will self-scout enough to see what he has to change for the Skins not to focus on Bills tendencies.

I heard 4 games before, but then I heard 5 games on either ESPN or NFL Network so I'm not sure which is right, but in either case the bye is now VACATION time, not a time to make the team better.

I agree with you about Chan & the Bills, I think they will come off the bye as well as any team can be expected to.

[Coach Sal]

I heard 4 games before, but then I heard 5 games on either ESPN or NFL Network so I'm not sure which is right, but in either case the bye is now VACATION time, not a time to make the team better.

Well, they were at the facility on Wed, and they are back to work today. So, they got off Thursday - Sunday (4).

[theanswer74]

4 days, in the past it was 3 days. So 1 extra day off.

[psubills62]

What teams are losing?

I know the Chiefs blew out the Raiders, and the Chiefs had a bye. The Chargers were all over the Jets, they came out flying and then cooled off. The Redskins got blown out by Eagles, but not a shock.

The only shocking loss may have been Titans vs Texans, but is it that crayz to think the Texans would blow out the Titans?
The three teams that have won are the Ravens (over Texans), Broncos (over Dolphins), and Chiefs (over Raiders). None of those are terribly surprising, but Denver definitely should have lost, no doubt in my mind about that.

Teams that lost:
Dolphins (to Jets)
Browns (to Raiders)
Cowboys (to Patriots)
Redskins (to Eagles)
Rams (to Packers)
Chargers (to Jets)
Titans (to Texans)
Cardinals (to Steelers)
Seahawks (to Browns)

I said in the OP that the teams who have lost were pretty bad to begin with. It's not necessarily that they lost and to who, my main issue is with the offensive production. Teams just aren't scoring much coming out of the bye week. And given what Coach Sal and better days have said, it makes sense. Though I think it would be good to see good teams come off their bye weeks and find out how well they do.

That actually gives me some relief for the Jets game in Week 9...I had been worried that we got them off a bye. If teams aren't doing as well coming off byes, maybe that's suddenly a good thing.

[psubills62]

It's actually 4, but I totally agree and was going to post this, as well.

Used to be able to take a couple extra days to prepare for next opponent. Really can't do that anymore. Plus, guys go away on vacations, etc during bye now and get away from football for 4 days. When you are in a routine, sometimes it's tough to get that back right away.

I'm not worried abut the Bills, though. I think this bye sets up well for them. Redskins not playing well, have to deal with injury questions this week, have to deal with QB questions/unknowns, and I think Chan is the kind of coach who will self-scout enough to see what he has to change for the Skins not to focus on Bills tendencies.
I think at this point it's wise to trust the coaches. However, I still think it's cause for worry since the offense is really what drives this team.

We'll have to see, I think we're getting a very beatable team in Toronto, but also a dangerous one.

[TrEd FTW]

Shockingly enough, how other teams fare coming off their bye weeks has no effect on what the Bills will do this Sunday. I know it's really hard to believe.

[psubills62]

Shockingly enough, how other teams fare coming off their bye weeks has no effect on what the Bills will do this Sunday. I know it's really hard to believe.
Nobody said it did. But as Coach Sal indicated, there is an underlying reason that teams aren't doing well off of bye weeks, which also has a chance of affecting Buffalo.

[theanswer74]

Nobody said it did. But as Coach Sal indicated, there is an underlying reason that teams aren't doing well off of bye weeks, which also has a chance of affecting Buffalo.

I think you need a season or even 2 seasons to say teams arent doing well of of a bye.

Now if NE gets blown out by 50 at Pittsburgh, we may be on to something.

[psubills62]

I think you need a season or even 2 seasons to say teams arent doing well of of a bye.

Now if NE gets blown out by 50 at Pittsburgh, we may be on to something.
Well we don't have a season or two to collect data before Buffalo comes out of its own bye week. I agree, and I'd love a larger sample size to draw conclusions, but I don't really have a choice but try to make conclusions off the current data.

My main point is that people may not want to assume that just because they're on a bye, Buffalo will come out shooting.

[BertSquirtgum]

My main point is that people may not want to assume that just because they're on a bye, Buffalo will come out shooting.

They should be coming out shooting or what the **** is the point of having coaches planning and studying film for a week.

[psubills62]

They should be coming out shooting or what the **** is the point of having coaches planning and studying film for a week.
:shakeno:

I understand the logical point of view. But obviously the extra rest and possibly the added restriction on number of days with practices has negatively affected many teams thus far. It's very possibly the Bills won't follow this trend, but it's possible they will. You can say "they SHOULD do ____" all you want, but they still have to come out next Sunday and execute. They may, they may not.