Zone Exclusive: Totally Scientific Power Rankings: Week 7

[northernbillfan]

Here is this week's instalment from Dujek:

Well, another glorious week of football is in the books, and the Bills have enjoyed a well deserved rest, and what have we learned?

Well, some teams seem predisposed to losing to teams from the AFC South (I’m looking at you Baltimore) and Carson Palmer is still Carson Palmer. Also, Christian Ponder didn’t look too shabby at all, certainly better than fat slow Donovan anyway.

Bills/AFC East Watch: The Bills drop a place due to Dallas and Houston winning and the Raiders getting destroyed by the Chiefs. The Patriots stay where they are, though the Vikings very nearly made the Pats the best team in the NFL. The Jets win sees them jump five places to 13th, and the Dolphins, well, I guess they’re just grateful that the Colts are so bad this year.

Suck for Luck: Can we just give him to the Colts now? Seriously, I don’t thing even a healthy Peyton Manning would turn this team into winners.

With all that out of the way, it’s time for the Totally Scientific Power Rankings, once again with the points included to highlight exactly how close teams are to their neighbours. This week brought to you by the Florida Home for Injured Tampa Bay Running Backs.

1. Green Bay Packers – 126.137pts. (Record: 7-0) (Previous week: 1)
2. New England Patriots – 123.913pts. (5-1)(2)
3. San Francisco 49ers – 118.931pts. (5-1) (5)
4. Detroit Lions – 118.507pts. (5-2) (4)
5. Houston Texans – 117.515pts. (4-3) (10)
6. New Orleans Saints – 116.158pts. (5-2) (6)
7. Baltimore Ravens – 113.879pts. (4-2) (3)
8. Dallas Cowboys – 111.605pts. (3-3) (11)
9. Buffalo Bills – 111.153pts. (4-2) (8)
10. Chicago Bears – 107.951pts. (4-3) (17)

Full rankings (http://www.billszone.com/?p=474)

[better days]

Well, I can't argue about the Bucs this week. I just hope they play better next week along with the Bills, lets get back to winning.

[malvado78]

FYI:

Suck for Luck: Can we just give him to the Colts now? Seriously, I don’t
thing even a healthy Peyton Manning would turn this team into winners.

"Thing" should be "Think"

[Dujek]

FYI:


"Thing" should be "Think"

****. I knew going for beer at lunchtime was a bad idea.

[Dujek]

Well, I can't argue about the Bucs this week. I just hope they play better next week along with the Bills, lets get back to winning.

No, but I'm seriously puzzled as to how the Texans jumped so much. Very strange indeed.

[psubills62]

No, but I'm seriously puzzled as to how the Texans jumped so much. Very strange indeed.
Their defense has been surprisingly stout this year, especially compared to last year. Didn't even seem to miss Mario Williams this last week.

[Dujek]

Their defense has been surprisingly stout this year, especially compared to last year. Didn't even seem to miss Mario Williams this last week.

Yeah, but I do the sums, and I still can't work out how they jumped so much.

All the numbers are right though, so they deserve to be where they are. I guess.

[Mike]

All the numbers are right though, so they deserve to be where they are. I guess.

How do the #s work?

[Dujek]

Points are awarded based on wins, quality of wins, losses, and quality of loss. As well as overall strength of schedule, yards gained, yards given up and turnover differential. These are all calculated in four separate formulae, and contribute set points which are then added to a base level of 100 to get the overall points. So, for example all the formulae added up give the Packers 26.137 points to be added onto the base of 100, while the total for the Colts is -34.478.

As a small matter to note, the Colts are on pace to utterly shatter the previous low of 48.72pts achieved by the 0-16 Detroit Lions. Even the Bills at 0-8 last year were in the 70s...

[Mski]

Dujek... just a thought: as these are totally scientific numbers based on the probability of one team beating another, and there not being a major separation pts wise between 3-9, and im sure other spots as well.... could you possibly post what the bills %chance of beating each team would be, and/or what the % would be for each team to beat the one ranked below it.

i guess because you dont want to share the formulae (and i dont blame you), saying a team scored 111.605pts in your system has no real meaning to the rest of us:idunno:

[Dujek]

Dujek... just a thought: as these are totally scientific numbers based on the probability of one team beating another, and there not being a major separation pts wise between 3-9, and im sure other spots as well.... could you possibly post what the bills %chance of beating each team would be, and/or what the % would be for each team to beat the one ranked below it.

i guess because you dont want to share the formulae (and i dont blame you), saying a team scored 111.605pts in your system has no real meaning to the rest of us:idunno:

I tend to look at it this way, if a home team is 10 points better in the rankings than a road team I'd almost guarantee a home win.

If the away team is 15 points better than the home team, I'd almost guarantee a road win.

However, as in real life, **** happens and teams that should be racing certs are beaten by their no-hope opponents. (I'm looking at you Baltimore).

Taking the Packers as an example then: I reckon they'd beat almost anyone anywhere, but you would have to have them playing the Ravens or below for me to be almost certain of a home win, or the Bears or below for me to be almost certain of a road win. Or certain enough for me to put money on anyway.

The Bills at almost 20 points better than the Skins, even in Toronto? Stick your mortgage on it (actually don't, that's a ****ing stupid thing to do because **** always happens).

[Meathead]

FYI:


"Thing" should be "Think"
not if youre mexican