Do you think the Bills are a fluke?

[psubills62]

I don't think so, but I'm wondering what other people believe.

Do you think we're simply getting fortunate with when we play teams, who has injuries when we play, and are getting lucky with turnovers, etc.? Should we expect to continue on this pace next year and should we expect the team to be about as good next year and on?

Is this a turning point for this franchise or is it a flash in the pan kind of year (or half a year)?

[Ed]

I don't see anything flukey about it. People act like the Bills came out of nowhere this year, but this team actually already turned a big corner last year when they went 4-3 in Fitzpatricks last 7 starts, including the infamous Pitt loss on the dropped TD catch. This team took huge strides last year and improved significantly, but no one noticed or cared because they started 0-8.

This team is well coached, works hard, plays hard, has good chemistry, and has more talent then people give them credit for.

The Rams beating the Saints last week is a fluke. The Bills may still have a ways to go to be elite, but they work hard and they are improving. That's not a fluke.

[Jan Reimers]

They're not a fluke, nor are they a flounder. There is nothing fishy about them.

[Skooby]

They're not a fluke, nor are they a flounder. There is nothing fishy about them.

I think they taunt the Jets after beating them up this weekend, just for the halibut.

[zone]

Everyone makes a point of other teams having injuries, is our team playing with our day one starters?

[stuckincincy]

They're not a fluke, nor are they a flounder. There is nothing fishy about them.


:kid:

[BILLSROCK1212]

I am not incredibly confident that we will win this weekend, but we are in it. And based on previous seasons, being "in it" with the Jets and every team we play must mean we are not a fluke.

[Thurmal]

I'm ashamed to admit it but, as a Bills fan, I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.

This season has been great so far, and the team has been one of the funnest Bills teams to watch in my life (27 y/o), but they are way too snakebitten of a franchise. I hate to admit it, but they would have to be like 8-2 or 8-3 before I really started to think playoffs.

A win this week would help big time though, I will admit.

[TrEd FTW]

Nope. Look at the important numbers. They're toward the top of the league in point differential, points scored, and turnovers. They've also beaten some good teams and have lost to two 5-2 clubs by a combined six points. These aren't the 2008 Bills, who were the definition of "fluke."

[Pinkerton Security]

I am not 100% sold that we are going to maintain this, but Im beginning to lean that way...we have gotten lucky a couple times and the balls arent always going to find their way into our player's arms like they did in a few games, but we are certainly headed in the right direction. We are certainly a contender and much better than most of us would have thought.

[TheBrownBear]

No. We have a good head coach, we execute well and we play with confidence.

As for how our talent stacks up, we have:

A very good quarterback.
A great running back.
A nice young receiving corp.
A very young potentially dominant offensive line.
A great collection of young talent on the interior of the defensive line.

There's no reason we shouldn't be competitive. Like Ed (post up-thread), I thought this team could be a contender based on the way we finished up last season. When you take into account the four 3 point losses to the Ravens/Bears/Chiefs/Steelers, which arguably should have been wins, this team was darn close to being 8-2 over Fitz's last 10 starts of 2010. The key is we've begun to learn how to win this season and our confidence is growing. Barring significant injury, this team will be in the playoff hunt through week 17.

[stuckincincy]

I'm ashamed to admit it but, as a Bills fan, I am waiting for the other shoe to drop.

This season has been great so far, and the team has been one of the funnest Bills teams to watch in my life (27 y/o), but they are way too snakebitten of a franchise. I hate to admit it, but they would have to be like 8-2 or 8-3 before I really started to think playoffs.

A win this week would help big time though, I will admit.

I know what you mean. Hope springs...infernal. :nervous:

[BLeonard]

Do you think we're simply getting fortunate with when we play teams, who has injuries when we play, and are getting lucky with turnovers, etc.? Should we expect to continue on this pace next year and should we expect the team to be about as good next year and on?


Well, every team has injuries... Would the Rams have won the Super Bowl if Trent Green didn't get hurt that year? Would the Bills have come back from a 35-3 deficit against Houston if Jim Kelly were playing, instead of Frank Reich?

Did you know that the "Home Run Throwback" play that the Titans used to beat the Bills (painful memory, I know) was run in practice by Derrcik Mason and not Kevin Dyson? Dyson was only in on that play because Mason was injured earlier in the game.

As for "lucky turnovers," on the surface, some of the turnovers we've gotten sure seem to be unbelievable "right place at the right time" situations. I bet if you go back and look at the New England Patriots over the past few years, their defense likely acquired a fair amount of their turnovers in situations similar to those you've seen the Bills get this season.

I think, a fair portion of the time, a team creates it's "luck." Granted, there are some things that you just say "WTF," such as Stevie Johnson's catch against the Bengals that was ruled incomplete, the tuck rule, or the Immaculate Reception. But, for the most part, when you do things right, it's gonna look like luck is on your side more often than not. Remember the "tuck rule" called against the Bills in the Bengals game that nullified a Bills TD? What happened a few plays later? Bryan Scott (the same guy that got the TD called back) picked off Dalton and ran it back for a TD.

As long as the Bills play consistent football, they should beat the teams they're expected to beat and should be in a good position down the road. Especially if they lock up all of their core players and improve or upgrade in areas that need it.

-Bill

[we are]

I still think we are another good draft and decent free agent or two from being a serious contender.

I see no reason we can't win 10 games this year however.

[psubills62]

The "reasons" we could be flukey that I listed were just excuses I've seen people make about our success. I never said I believed them.

To me, this team has had some opportunities and taken advantage of them. That's what good teams do.

And honestly, if we are a fluke, I think we'll be able to collect enough talent in the next FA and draft that we won't really skip a beat. I'm still hoping to find a stud WR (the guys we have are playing well, but think about having a true stud like Andre or Calvin Johnson...that would make Fitz's life a LOT easier). I think Nix and co. are going to look to revamp the secondary and probably add another pass rusher. There are plenty of things we could do to get even better and I'm excited to see them happen.

[stuckincincy]

Well, every team has ...

...As long as the Bills play consistent football, they should beat the teams they're expected to beat and should be in a good position down the road. Especially if they lock up all of their core players and improve or upgrade in areas that need it.

-Bill

Good post. I wrote elsewhere, that that ovoid ball, the speed of the game, the unpredictability et al is what makes us like to watch football. It's a 4-act play that's been running for over a hundred years. Everything has been seen thousands of times, but every game shows a wrinkle, a wow play and so on.

However they end up, this current team has certainly given fans a big bang for their buck. A couple of late-minute wins, a couple of late-minute losses...edge-of-the-seat, pace up 'n down the living room stuff. It doesn't get much better than that.

Fun to watch, fun to fret over, fun to wonder what's next.

[OpIv37]

This is a tough call.

This definitely feels different than 2008. In that case, I knew from the beginning that the winning was not sustainable.

This time around, the team still has flaws, particularly on D. And the injuries on the OL definitely do not help. I could see this team collapsing.

But at the same time, this group overachieves. They don't lose their **** at the slightest adversity like that '08 team (and basically all the Bills teams of the last 10 years). The whole is more than the sum of the parts.

So, I don't really know what to expect. An epic collapse is not outside the realm of possibility, but neither is an improbable playoff run.

If I had to make my best guess, I'd say this team just barely misses the playoffs. I don't see them wilting like previous Bills teams, but at the same time the talent and the killer instinct isn't there yet. It's not a fluke, but it's an unfinished product.

[BillsOverDolphins]

I don't know at this point whether they're a fluke, or if they have staying power. All I know is if they win this weekend they'll be legit THIS season.

[wmoz11]

I think we're a good football team. I tend to agree with Op in that I think we'll miss out on the playoffs via tiebreaker or by one game. Nowadays, it takes a very good team to get in - not sure we are that yet. Just not enough talent.

I remain optimistic that we can get to 9-7, 10-6; but not expecting anymore than that. Truthfully, though I'd be disappointed, missing the playoffs this year and winning at least 9 games would still be a good season.

To more directly answer your question: no, I don't think we're a fluke. I think we may be a year away from being really, really good, though.

[Pinkerton Security]

This is a tough call.

This definitely feels different than 2008. In that case, I knew from the beginning that the winning was not sustainable.

This time around, the team still has flaws, particularly on D. And the injuries on the OL definitely do not help. I could see this team collapsing.

But at the same time, this group overachieves. They don't lose their **** at the slightest adversity like that '08 team (and basically all the Bills teams of the last 10 years). The whole is more than the sum of the parts.

So, I don't really know what to expect. An epic collapse is not outside the realm of possibility, but neither is an improbable playoff run.

If I had to make my best guess, I'd say this team just barely misses the playoffs. I don't see them wilting like previous Bills teams, but at the same time the talent and the killer instinct isn't there yet. It's not a fluke, but it's an unfinished product.

do you think beating the jets tomorrow could push us over the top and sneak us into the playoffs?

[BillsFever21]

We will find out over the next four weeks what we're made of. We have to play 3 straight games on the road which is never easy and the Jets twice during that span.

Unfortunately I could see us coming out of that span 1-3 and before we know it we're only 6-5 with our back to the wall for a WC spot. I'd sign my life away for a 2-2 record over these next 4 games with a split against the Jets and a win against the Dolphins. That would put us 7-4 with a good chance at a WC if we don't bomb out the rest of the season.

I see us just missing out on the playoffs this year though and ending up with 8 or maybe 9 wins. It's going to take 10 if not 11 wins to make the playoffs and I'm still not sold on the fact that we can finish strong to accomplish that. Even after this stretch we still have to play the Chargers and Patriots along with the Titans who are playing decent.

I hope this is the year we finally make the playoffs but I don't see it yet. Especially if we lose this week to the Jets at home and all of a sudden we are tied with them. Assuming the Pats and Steelers win their divisions I don't see us overtaking the Ravens and Jets. They are far more talented then we are and have a proven track record over the past few years.

A win this week would go a long ways towards that though. We HAVE to sweep the Dolphins and beat the Broncos if we want to even think about getting to 10 or 11 wins though.

[Syderick]

We've got at least a chance at wildcard if we continue the success

[Maybin's Revenge]

They're not a fluke. They showed shades of becoming a quality offensive team last season, and it's carried over into this season. They have a good quarterback, and that helps a lot.

The real questions are: (1) What happens when Fred Jackson is washed up in two years?; and (2) Can they improve the defense?

[ddaryl]

we are a team that is heading in the right direction for the 1st time in over a decade

[Philagape]

Fred Jackson's not a fluke ... Fitzpatrick's not a fluke ... Dareus is not a fluke ... Wilson's not a fluke ... Barnett's not a fluke ... Wood and Levitre aren't flukes ... So I'd have to say no.

[trapezeus]

Bills have to keep drafting well if they want to get better. I think we are for real so far but that it's just good enough for a playoff appearance. They may need some extra pieces.

[Night Train]

Not at all.

They are a team on the improve, a year away from solidifying the roster but enough talent and very good coaching to beat some teams that look far superior on paper.

It will only get better but this years expectations are realistic, if kept in the proper perspective.

This is like the 1979 or 1987 Bills..getting good just before a good run. Looks good long term but don't start believing they have completely arrived just yet.

[Jan Reimers]

The Bills are no fluke, but Rex Ryan is a blowfish. Advantage Bills.

[better days]

They're not a fluke. They showed shades of becoming a quality offensive team last season, and it's carried over into this season. They have a good quarterback, and that helps a lot.

The real questions are: (1) What happens when Fred Jackson is washed up in two years?; and (2) Can they improve the defense?

Answers: (1) If the Bills can't replace Jackson when he stops producing, maybe 2 years maybe a little longer, they will regress like the Jets this year with a washed up LaDainian Tomlinson & a Shonn Green that is not very good.

(2) Yes they can improve the defense next year. I expect another defense heavy draft in 2012.

[Dujek]

The Bills have had the hardest schedule of any team with a winning record so far this season, only Washington and Philly have losing records out of all the Bills opponents so far.

The fact that with that schedule they're 5-2 says it all really.

[Extremebillsfan247]

I don't think so, but I'm wondering what other people believe.

Do you think we're simply getting fortunate with when we play teams, who has injuries when we play, and are getting lucky with turnovers, etc.? Should we expect to continue on this pace next year and should we expect the team to be about as good next year and on?

Is this a turning point for this franchise or is it a flash in the pan kind of year (or half a year)?I don't think the team in itself is a fluke. But the entire NFL season is a complete oddity that probably wont happen again for a long time, or at least not as it has to this point. A late start to a season mixed with new rules, and format changes will do that. JMO

[djjimkelly]

i dont believe they are a fluke

however i do believe we are where we are at because of coaching

do we have talent yes but our strategy is lifting up guys who i wont call average but the coaching is truly bringing out the best in our players.

[Maybin's Revenge]

Answers: (1) If the Bills can't replace Jackson when he stops producing, maybe 2 years maybe a little longer, they will regress like the Jets this year with a washed up LaDainian Tomlinson & a Shonn Green that is not very good.

Difference is, the Jets don't rely on Tomlinson and Greene. But the Bills rely on Jackson.

[BILLSROCK1212]

Difference is, the Jets don't rely on Tomlinson and Greene. But the Bills rely on Jackson.
The Jets wish they could rely on them.

[Maybin's Revenge]

The Jets wish they could rely on them.

Having an offense based on running backs is generally not a good idea because their shelf lives are so short. Better to rely on an offensive line. They last longer.

Take Fred Jackson. He's arguably the most complete back in the league right now, but he's going to be washed up in two years, and there goes the offense.

[Philagape]

Having an offense based on running backs is generally not a good idea because their shelf lives are so short. Better to rely on an offensive line. They last longer.

Take Fred Jackson. He's arguably the most complete back in the league right now, but he's going to be washed up in two years, and there goes the offense.

Jackson is making big plays this year because the line is opening huge holes for him. He's a good back, no doubt, and he played well before, but he's never broken the big ones as much as he has this year, and the reason is the line. When Jackson is done, Spiller can step up.

[mayotm]

Having an offense based on running backs is generally not a good idea because their shelf lives are so short. Better to rely on an offensive line. They last longer.

Take Fred Jackson. He's arguably the most complete back in the league right now, but he's going to be washed up in two years, and there goes the offense.You are vastly underrating how well the Bills offensive line has played this year. In addition, the Bills have more offensive options than just Fred.

[Maybin's Revenge]

You are vastly underrating how well the Bills offensive line has played this year.

That could be true. But we'd have to see extensive playing time from a back other than Jackson to know for sure.


In addition, the Bills have more offensive options than just Fred.

He's the straw that stirs the drink.

[YardRat]

Maybe not a fluke, but the W-L record isn't really indicative of how good they are or how much farther they have to go.

Fitz is a gamer, Freddie's a stud, Stevie a decent #1, Chandler a nice find.
The offensive line has been playing better lately, but they are still a couple of players away from being able to dominate. The rest of the receiving corps are over-achievers, and that's OK, but we could really use somebody to step up or into the #2 spot opposite Johnson.

I like the front seven on defense, but we could still use a balls-out pass rusher...our safeties are adequate (Wilson is a great leader, though) and our corners are very weak. The biggest need on D is a coordinator.

[zone]

Hopefully when Freddy is done CJ will be ready to take the torch, he has the tools to be a complete back lets see if it materializes.

[PromoTheRobot]

Not a fluke. It should be obvious to any knowledgable observer.

PTR

[spacecowboy]

NO. Have a nice day.

[methos4ever]

Not a fluke. Well coached, solid players, lost 2 games by 3 points.

[OpIv37]

do you think beating the jets tomorrow could push us over the top and sneak us into the playoffs?

Obviously it would be huge in the standings, as it would give us two games and a tiebreaker over the Jets, meaning they'd have to make up 3 games in the remaining 8 to catch us.

I think a loss could be devastating in terms of morale. I think a win won't provide the momentum in and of itself, but it would start the ball rolling. If we beat the Jets and the Cowboys and go into the Miami game at 7-2, then we'll have all the momentum that we need.

[BertSquirtgum]

The idea of the Bills being 8-2 gives me a boner.

[OpIv37]

The idea of the Bills being 8-2 gives me a boner.

lmao- the win over Miami is a foregone conclusion. Even I won't argue that one.

[Buddo]

No fluke whatsoever.

They could be deemed a touch fortunate in that some of the teams we've played, have had injuries, that might have helped us some, but we've also had our own, and thus far, dealt with those pretty favourably.

In respect of the turnovers, I think it's as much about having players who play 'heads up' as anything else. This seems to me to be a pretty 'smart' assemblage of players, who aren't simply just reacting when they play. Being coached to always 'hustle' to the ball helps in it's own way, as if anything happens to it, there's likely to be someone around it to take advantage.
'Hustle' might not be the best word tbh. I think our D 'attacks' the football, much better than we have in the past. That's coaching. We may not be 'attacking' QBs in the way we would wish - i.e. physically - but we aren't letting them get away with anything much in the way of errant throws.