OK, LET'S GO CJ... IT'S YOUR SHOW NOW!!!

[Mahdi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDHtZY0OxfQ&feature=related

Lets get behind this kid, he can be a freakin beast. Just needs to get THIS mojo back -->>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDHtZY0OxfQ&feature=related

[Bangarang]

Chan neglected to keep feeding FJ the ball. What makes anyone think he's just going to give CJ 20 carries?

[paladin warrior]

Ya!!! He is a faster like a cheetah, But the problem is He need find go through the big space hole

[YardRat]

:rofl:

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

Ya!!! He is a faster like a cheetah, But the problem is He need find go through the big space hole

wtf PW you are a damn poet I love your posts!:clap:

[dannyek71]

CJ is a bust. Let's go Johnny White.

[ServoBillieves]

Willis nee... oh wait CJ, the dancer, stone hands... yeah... whatever, he'd better prove us wrong.

[OpIv37]

CJ should be named BJ because he blows. He's just another one of a long line of horrendous 1st round picks by this mediocre organization. He will NEVER regain that college form unless the NCAA grants him a few more years of eligibility.

[Mahdi]

CJ should be named BJ because he blows. He's just another one of a long line of horrendous 1st round picks by this mediocre organization. He will NEVER regain that college form unless the NCAA grants him a few more years of eligibility.
I think he should probably get 20 carries in a game before he's labeled a bust. In fact, he should probably get 200 carries in a season before the word bust can even be mentioned.

[imbondz]

It's our organization that's a bust, doesn't matter who comes through here. Freddy Jackson would probably be a 3 time ProBowler by now if he started w/ another team. It's mind boggling to me that I got sucked into thinking we were going to turn it around this year.

[Night Train]

I hope he blows so we can start more of these really cool ***** & moan threads.

Don't let us down, CJ !

[Mr. Pink]

I think he should probably get 20 carries in a game before he's labeled a bust. In fact, he should probably get 200 carries in a season before the word bust can even be mentioned.


Neither of those will happen at the NFL level.

[Jan Reimers]

The problem is that they play tackle football in the NFL, and CJ can't break a tackle. He'd be a helluva player in flag football, though.

[djjimkelly]

bottom line hes a 1st rounder im happy we get a 6 week window to see what he is.

i just pray they use him in a similar way to the way they used freddie

[OpIv37]

I think he should probably get 20 carries in a game before he's labeled a bust. In fact, he should probably get 200 carries in a season before the word bust can even be mentioned.
I'm tired of this myth that CJ hasn't had the opportunity. He hasn't had it because he hasnt earned it.

[SpillerThrills]

I'm tired of this myth that CJ hasn't had the opportunity. He hasn't had it because he hasnt earned it.

so are you saying that you would rather Chan have sat Freddy so CJ could get carries? How do you sit a guy that is leading the league in yards from scrimmage for a second year back who has yet to make a name for himself???

[BillsFever21]

It sucks that Jackson is out. What little chance we did have left is over now. I was waiting for the meltdown and it finally happened and now it's only going to get worse from here. The only thing a couple lucky wins got us early in the season was a worse draft pick next year, Fitzpatrick a huge contract he isn't worth and a segment of the fan base who thought we were finally for real only to be let down. I even heard some people on here saying that Gailey was one of the best coaches in the NFL. That was a laugher then and even more so now.

It's time to see what Spiller has. If he doesn't produce then we know we have another wasted 1st round bust on our hands. If he does good then we may have the RB of our future and salvage something out of the pick.

My feelings are that he will be average at best and will not live up to his Top 10 status. He can't break a tackle or run inbetween the tackles. The perfect example was last week when he had all kinds of room from the 2 yard line and one player stops his dead in his tracks and he couldn't get in the endzone. That was pathetic. No juke move or any ability to break the tackle or at least have his momentum carry him into the endzone. I couldn't believe it.

[Beebe]

Even if we had Jerome Bettis in his prime he would probably play TE for us. We have nose tackles playing out side linebackers everybody is trying to get faster, we're trying to get slower so don't be surprised if we have CJ SPILLER in one wide receiver set the hole game and the jets blitz us the whole game and to top it off AARON MABIN has 2.5 sacks on us.

[Cleve]

It sucks that Jackson is out. What little chance we did have left is over now. I was waiting for the meltdown and it finally happened and now it's only going to get worse from here. The only thing a couple lucky wins got us early in the season was a worse draft pick next year, Fitzpatrick a huge contract he isn't worth and a segment of the fan base who thought we were finally for real only to be let down. I even heard some people on here saying that Gailey was one of the best coaches in the NFL. That was a laugher then and even more so now.

It's time to see what Spiller has. If he doesn't produce then we know we have another wasted 1st round bust on our hands. If he does good then we may have the RB of our future and salvage something out of the pick.

My feelings are that he will be average at best and will not live up to his Top 10 status. He can't break a tackle or run inbetween the tackles. The perfect example was last week when he had all kinds of room from the 2 yard line and one player stops his dead in his tracks and he couldn't get in the endzone. That was pathetic. No juke move or any ability to break the tackle or at least have his momentum carry him into the endzone. I couldn't believe it.

Well, this year, Spiller has averaged 5.5 yds per carry on 21 rushing attempts, which ties him with Fred Jackson in average yards per carry. He might prove better than we think.

[sqad5]

I don't really think Spiller is a bust yet,he never even played a whole game at running back.Jackson just really busted wide open,even tho Jackson was still good the past year or two.Lets see what Spiller does at running back this Sunday.Before we all jump the gun on the kid.

[OpIv37]

so are you saying that you would rather Chan have sat Freddy so CJ could get carries? How do you sit a guy that is leading the league in yards from scrimmage for a second year back who has yet to make a name for himself???

lmao. What I'm saying is that CJ hasn't earned the opportunity to get the carries. FJ was NOT leading the league in rushing when CJ was drafted and he wasn't leading the league in rushing at the start of this season. When CJ has been on the field, he's showing nothing. He's useless as a receiver. He gets no yards on carries. Hell, Brad Smith has been a more effective rusher.

RB is the easiest transition between college and the NFL, and after a season and a half, CJ has shown literally zero improvement. Even with the limited opportunities he somehow managed to earn, he should have at least shown some improvement by now.

The grand tradition of 1st round busts continues....

[Philagape]

lmao. What I'm saying is that CJ hasn't earned the opportunity to get the carries. FJ was NOT leading the league in rushing when CJ was drafted and he wasn't leading the league in rushing at the start of this season. When CJ has been on the field, he's showing nothing. He's useless as a receiver. He gets no yards on carries. Hell, Brad Smith has been a more effective rusher.

RB is the easiest transition between college and the NFL, and after a season and a half, CJ has shown literally zero improvement. Even with the limited opportunities he somehow managed to earn, he should have at least shown some improvement by now.

The grand tradition of 1st round busts continues....

Wasn't it you who said about another player that a sample size has to be large enough to judge him?

[OpIv37]

Wasn't it you who said about another player that a sample size has to be large enough to judge him?

Yes, but that was about Matt Moore. A 4 game sample size for a QB is NOT sufficient.

We are talking about ~26 games for a RB. Apples to oranges.

[Philagape]

Yes, but that was about Matt Moore. A 4 game sample size for a QB is NOT sufficient.

We are talking about ~26 games for a RB. Apples to oranges.

I'm talking about carries. You think a RB's ability to gain yards can be judged when he doesn't even get 4 carries a game?
I could say CJ's pretty good at it since he's averaged 5.5 this year, but I won't judge him either way until he gets a full game's worth of work, which any RB should be afforded.

[OpIv37]

I'm talking about carries. You think a RB's ability to gain yards can be judged when he doesn't even get 4 carries a game?
I could say CJ's pretty good at it since he's averaged 5.5 this year, but I won't judge him either way until he gets a full game's worth of work, which any RB should be afforded.

I'm thinking that when an RB gets 4 carries a game and looks like ****, and continues to only get 4 carries a game, there is a reason why he isn't getting a full game's worth of carries.

For all the mistakes this team makes, one of the ones they DON'T make is putting guys on the field because of where they were drafted. Guys have to earn their way on the field and Spiller hasn't earned it. We are about to see why.

[Philagape]

I'm thinking that when an RB gets 4 carries a game and looks like ****, and continues to only get 4 carries a game, there is a reason why he isn't getting a full game's worth of carries.

For all the mistakes this team makes, one of the ones they DON'T make is putting guys on the field because of where they were drafted. Guys have to earn their way on the field and Spiller hasn't earned it. We are about to see why.

We know why: Fred Jackson. That is the reason.

Saying Spiller sucks because hasn't earned the time is like saying Enroth sucked because he didn't earn the time.

Why does Spiller have a 5.5 average if he looks like ****? I think he's run much better this year than last, and that stat backs up my observation.

[OpIv37]

We know why: Fred Jackson. That is the reason.

Saying Spiller sucks because hasn't earned the time is like saying Enroth sucked because he didn't earn the time.

Why does Spiller have a 5.5 average if he looks like ****? I think he's run much better this year than last, and that stat backs up my observation.

Did you see the 3rd and 1 last week? Did you see Spiller's drop along the sidelines? Those are the plays that playmakers make. Those are the plays that guys looking to earn their shot make.

And the Enroth example is just stupid because Enroth looked good from the very first chance at ice time he got, unlike Spiller.

I think we are in big trouble with Spiller at RB.

[BillyT92679]

Well, this year, Spiller has averaged 5.5 yds per carry on 21 rushing attempts, which ties him with Fred Jackson in average yards per carry. He might prove better than we think.
In one game, the Raiders game, CJ averaged over 15 yards per run due to a couple of long runs
take that out and he's actually running under 4 yards per carry

he doesn't look like a stud NFL player to me

After CJ and Perry Tuttle the Bills should probably never draft a Clemson player in the first round (unless Kelly's nephew pans out of course)

[Boomstick]

In one game, the Raiders game, CJ averaged over 15 yards per run due to a couple of long runs
take that out and he's actually running under 4 yards per carry



I'm not exactly sure where I stand on what Spiller may or may not be capable of. However, this argument just ticks me off, no you personally or anything, just the argument.
It doesn't matter who the player is, if you take away the plays where he does something good/positive then you're always left with bad or average/negative things they've done.
Just never made sense to base player performance or talent in that sort of thinking.

[better days]

In one game, the Raiders game, CJ averaged over 15 yards per run due to a couple of long runs
take that out and he's actually running under 4 yards per carry

he doesn't look like a stud NFL player to me

After CJ and Perry Tuttle the Bills should probably never draft a Clemson player in the first round (unless Kelly's nephew pans out of course)

Well, CJ is the type of back that is capable of & DOES get the long run. Therefore those runs cannot be discounted.

I doubt Barry Sanders would have a good average if you took every run over 10 yds he had out.

[OpIv37]

I'm not exactly sure where I stand on what Spiller may or may not be capable of. However, this argument just ticks me off, no you personally or anything, just the argument.
It doesn't matter who the player is, if you take away the plays where he does something good/positive then you're always left with bad or average/negative things they've done.
Just never made sense to base player performance or talent in that sort of thinking.

Actually it's very common in statistics- ANY type of statistics- to throw out outliers. Now, there is a very specific definition of outliers- usually two standard definitions from the mean- and that's where this argument can fail.

People making it usually don't crunch the numbers to find out if the numbers they are throwing out to find out if they really are outliers, and they often don't throw out both the bad and the good- it's usually just whichever side helps prove their point.

That being said, Spiller racked up numbers against an Oakland team that that was playing poorly at the start of the season. He's never replicated that feat before or since. That alone should make you think. Lots of bad players have had good games here or there. People throw out the good things a player has done when it is a one-off here or there to show that their typical performance is not nearly as good as their stats look because the stats are skewed by one or two good performances vs 8 or 9 bad ones.

When a player has done so few good things that people can every single one of them off the top of their head and remove them from the equation, that alone should make you think.

[OpIv37]

Well, CJ is the type of back that is capable of & DOES get the long run. Therefore those runs cannot be discounted.

I doubt Barry Sanders would have a good average if you took every run over 10 yds he had out.

No, he doesn't get the long run. He got it once or twice in 26 games. There are a lot of sub-par players who managed the same feat.

[ZEUS]

Spiller a bust as an every down back and a waste of a 1st round pick. I do think he showed flashes as a good punt returner though.

[Mike]

CJ is a bust. Let's go Johnny White.


I said it last year & was criticized. Now we will know beyond a shadow of a doubt. We saw what Fred did, now we will see what CJ is. I am willing to bet that there will still be some CJ supporters out there that will blame everyone but CJ.

CJ = Bush 2.0

[Mike]

Actually it's very common in statistics- ANY type of statistics- to throw out outliers. Now, there is a very specific definition of outliers- usually two standard definitions from the mean- and that's where this argument can fail.

People making it usually don't crunch the numbers to find out if the numbers they are throwing out to find out if they really are outliers, and they often don't throw out both the bad and the good- it's usually just whichever side helps prove their point.

That being said, Spiller racked up numbers against an Oakland team that that was playing poorly at the start of the season. He's never replicated that feat before or since. That alone should make you think. Lots of bad players have had good games here or there. People throw out the good things a player has done when it is a one-off here or there to show that their typical performance is not nearly as good as their stats look because the stats are skewed by one or two good performances vs 8 or 9 bad ones.

When a player has done so few good things that people can every single one of them off the top of their head and remove them from the equation, that alone should make you think.

If Spiller played for the Dophins ( he kinda does -bush) or any other team, most would agree with you but since it's the home team, they are blind.

[mikemac2001]

Can we actually see what he ****ing does....give the guy a ****ing chance...his blocking was horrible last year that's why he didn't see the field

give the ****ing guy a ****ing chance before you call him a bust i want to see what he does with 20+ carries if he even gets that many

ive seen good runs and bad runs from him but its so off and he can't get a feel of the game so ****ing annoying its like people think they are so smart just STFU watch him as the starter and then ****ing say what u want

[better days]

No, he doesn't get the long run. He got it once or twice in 26 games. There are a lot of sub-par players who managed the same feat.

Spiller is FAST. He is the TYPE of RB that is CAPABLE of making the big play, the LONG RUN. That is the reason he was drafted we were told.

Spiller may prove to be sub par but I think to is too soon to write him off. Like I said the time for him to show us what he has is NOW.

[tomz]

Actually it's very common in statistics- ANY type of statistics- to throw out outliers. Now, there is a very specific definition of outliers- usually two standard definitions from the mean- and that's where this argument can fail.

People making it usually don't crunch the numbers to find out if the numbers they are throwing out to find out if they really are outliers, and they often don't throw out both the bad and the good- it's usually just whichever side helps prove their point.

That being said, Spiller racked up numbers against an Oakland team that that was playing poorly at the start of the season. He's never replicated that feat before or since. That alone should make you think. Lots of bad players have had good games here or there. People throw out the good things a player has done when it is a one-off here or there to show that their typical performance is not nearly as good as their stats look because the stats are skewed by one or two good performances vs 8 or 9 bad ones.

When a player has done so few good things that people can every single one of them off the top of their head and remove them from the equation, that alone should make you think.

Have you actually calculated the standard deviation? Based on what I've watched Spiller do, his standard deviation is probably very large. He seems to either get nailed in the backfield or break it--few runs for in between yardage. I'd bet the standard deviation on his runs is about +/- 5 yards which would include virtually all of his runs in the sample.

And by the way, this would require some more sophisticated analysis because the sample is inherently biased against the impact of negative plays and therefore presents an asymmetric distribution. (You can have a run of +35 yards but it is nearly impossible to have a run of -35 yards.) This means that what you would call outliers in the direction of the long run are more likely in reality than a simple assumption of equal distribution about the mean (+/- 2 standard deviations) would suggest.

Put it this way: Spiller obviously was brought in as a home run threat, NOT a between the tackles guy.

[OpIv37]

Have you actually calculated the standard deviation? Based on what I've watched Spiller do, his standard deviation is probably very large. He seems to either get nailed in the backfield or break it--few runs for in between yardage. I'd bet the standard deviation on his runs is about +/- 5 yards which would include virtually all of his runs in the sample.

And by the way, this would require some more sophisticated analysis because the sample is inherently biased against the impact of negative plays and therefore presents an asymmetric distribution. (You can have a run of +35 yards but it is nearly impossible to have a run of -35 yards.) This means that what you would call outliers in the direction of the long run are more likely in reality than a simple assumption of equal distribution about the mean (+/- 2 standard deviations) would suggest.

Put it this way: Spiller obviously was brought in as a home run threat, NOT a between the tackles guy.

Like I said, I didn't actually do the analysis, and that's where the concept of throwing out the outliers usually fails on this board: people don't actually do the analysis and simply throw out the outliers that take away from their point without checking to see if the outliers actually meet the statistical definition.

You do bring up a good point about the outliers being biased towards the big gains rather than losses, but that same bias also acts to inflate the average. Spiller will never get a 35 yard loss to deflate his average, but he may get a 35 yard gain to inflate his average. At the end of the day, the point is that a 35 yard gain is atypical. And actually, he doesn't even have a 35 yard run. His career long is 26 (and it wasn't for a TD so you can't blame the endzone for stopping him).

At the end of the day, the point is that people are saying he's a big-play threat, but the stats don't back it up, and his sample size is so small that the one or two moderately large plays he does have are inflating it.

[better days]

Like I said, I didn't actually do the analysis, and that's where the concept of throwing out the outliers usually fails on this board: people don't actually do the analysis and simply throw out the outliers that take away from their point without checking to see if the outliers actually meet the statistical definition.

You do bring up a good point about the outliers being biased towards the big gains rather than losses, but that same bias also acts to inflate the average. Spiller will never get a 35 yard loss to deflate his average, but he may get a 35 yard gain to inflate his average. At the end of the day, the point is that a 35 yard gain is atypical. And actually, he doesn't even have a 35 yard run. His career long is 26 (and it wasn't for a TD so you can't blame the endzone for stopping him).

At the end of the day, the point is that people are saying he's a big-play threat, but the stats don't back it up, and his sample size is so small that the one or two moderately large plays he does have are inflating it.

Well, every RB in the NFL that is any good has some long runs, so the entire average for the league is inflated by long runs.

[better days]

I'm not exactly sure where I stand on what Spiller may or may not be capable of. However, this argument just ticks me off, no you personally or anything, just the argument.
It doesn't matter who the player is, if you take away the plays where he does something good/positive then you're always left with bad or average/negative things they've done.
Just never made sense to base player performance or talent in that sort of thinking.

Exactly. And many games are decided by one score so anyone can say well if you take this play away, my team wins.

Football is played for 60 minutes & EVERY play counts, even the good ones.

[djjimkelly]

i hated the draft pick when it happened

but since hes is our first rounder from 2 years ago i have to pray he lives up to it

and ill be cheering for him to be better then freddie not becuz i dislike freddie purely based on where he was drafted

[Cleve]

Yep, this is CJ's time to shine. Hope he does well tomorrow... we Bills fans could use a positive development - the last month has been disastrous.

[OpIv37]

Well, every RB in the NFL that is any good has some long runs, so the entire average for the league is inflated by long runs.
To some degree yes. That's why trying to evaluate a RB on average alone is stupid. Spiller might have a 5.5 ypc average. It that doesn't tell th while story of his performance.

[Cleve]

Well, so much for optimism. Spiller only gained 55 yds with 19 carries, or 2.9 yds per carry.

When Fred faced the Jets a few weeks ago, he did better... 82 yds on 18 carries.

At least Fitzpatrick finally had a decent game after throwing some stinkburgers in the last month. That helped compensate for the rushing futility.

[BillsFever21]

Well, so much for optimism. Spiller only gained 55 yds with 19 carries, or 2.9 yds per carry.

When Fred faced the Jets a few weeks ago, he did better... 82 yds on 18 carries.

At least Fitzpatrick finally had a decent game after throwing some stinkburgers in the last month. That helped compensate for the rushing futility.

He was horrible like I thought he would be. He has 5 more games to prove what he has to offer in the NFL.

My guess is he will end up as an average RB just like Lynch, etc. If the Bills history is any indication of the future we will be trading him for a 4th round pick after next year and drafting another RB.

[BertSquirtgum]

Bills need to sign Michael Bush. They need a big bruiser running back. Spiller can ride the bench. He stinks, no vision what so ever.

[Mahdi]

He was horrible like I thought he would be. He has 5 more games to prove what he has to offer in the NFL.

My guess is he will end up as an average RB just like Lynch, etc. If the Bills history is any indication of the future we will be trading him for a 4th round pick after next year and drafting another RB.
He really wasn't horrible at all.

I didn't see one time where he had a hole to run through and he didn't hit it up. He either had a good run or a run that was stuffed in the backfield because there was no where to go .

Pouha was all over him once he took the handoff. Wood was a huge loss for our run game.

Thing is everyone here who is criticizing Spiller's firs start saw that he had no where to run half the time yet they still want to blame him. Makes no sense.

[trapezeus]

Looks like Chan thinks there was good and bad from his first outing in NY.

I think CJ is probably destined to being a utility back. from his one showing of running the majority of the handoffs, he doesn't have the natural vision that will get him the explosive runs. As a result, he'll need world class blocking to get him to be a long ball threat.

As a result, i don't see him being an everydown back. but i do think he can be useful in the offense that chan runs. He is the new whitner. but more likeable since he doesn't speak absolute nonsense about being light years better than he is.