ESPN's AFC East Blog points out the obvious

[TigerJ]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/36214/ryan-fitzpatrick-missing-the-deep-ball

Unless you've been watching other games, you've seen it. On the few occasions when Ryan Fitzpatrick has attempted deep passes, he's normally way off target. Actually, I think he hit a few more of those passes early in the season. During the losing streak, expecially during the last three games of the losing streak, I don't think he's hit any, though I don't have the games recorded to go back and check.

This is not a thread to advocate dumping Fitzpatrick. I figure it is a foregone conclusion he'll start out the 2012 season as starter. We'll have plenty of time next year to hash through what the Bills should do about the QB situation long term. Obviously though, if teams don't respect your ability to throw deep, there is only so much you can do to stretch the field horizontally so your receivers can gain a bit of separation. If you can't throw deep, it eventually becomes a lot tougher to find receivers open short. It's really amazing, actually, without a deep passing game, that CJ spiller has found as much running room as he has.

[Skooby]

In late breaking news, the sun will rise tomorrow.

[ServoBillieves]

But... but why did we get rid of Lee?!

[zone]

Pretty simple, Fitz had time and confidence in his protection to throw the deep ball early in the year when the O-line was not a turnstile at each spot. People really don't get how big of a deal that is.

[Skooby]

Pretty simple, Fitz had time and confidence in his protection to throw the deep ball early in the year when the O-line was not a turnstile at each spot. People really don't get how big of a deal that is.

People in Cincy get it, the O-line there is playing wonderfully & the D-line has been stout. Secure the lines, the QB is snug as a bug in a rug.

[Jan Reimers]

I think Fitz has had problems with his accuracy on deep balls, and being hurried behind our injury-riddled O-line is part of the problem.

But I think that lack of a fast, sure handed receiver is at least another part. Those balls that go 2 or 3 yards beyond Stevie, Jones, etc. might be caught by a speedier guy. But we no longer have a speedier guy.

[Night Train]

Fitz has guts but is very limited. He was throwing slants in tight windows early on and teams have adjusted their zone coverage to close those lanes. Checkmate.

He doesn't have the skill set to adjust. Feet of clay prevents rollouts. 4 out of 5 deep balls are nowhere near the WR. Then he started throwing many dump passes into the turf.

Why the Bills rushed to extend him made little sense but they shouldn't just dig in their heels and refuse to see the obvious. But if a 93 year old owners refuses to change, it's basically more of the same for another couple of years.

Team desperately needs a young QB in here to take over but they won't have a shot at Luck or RG III. Any worthy of a 2nd-3rd rounder ? We'll see but the locals are getting restless and may show their frustration at the ticket window next year.

You can no longer just sell having an NFL team to a blind loyal fanbase. Rebuilding must show results and it starts with the QB. No disrespect to Fitz but his 15 minutes are up and we need a long term solution.

[YardRat]

He has been inaccurate on his deep throws for sure. He's also had several passes dropped, even when we were winning. For all of his faults, QB is actually one of the smaller problems on the offensive side of the ball.

We need legit NFL tackles, and a more dominant center.
We need WR's.

Those are both far higher priorities than QB.

RB and TE we're OK for now, but could use a couple of young guys to groom.

[better days]

He has been inaccurate on his deep throws for sure. He's also had several passes dropped, even when we were winning. For all of his faults, QB is actually one of the smaller problems on the offensive side of the ball.

We need legit NFL tackles, and a more dominant center.
We need WR's.

Those are both far higher priorities than QB.

RB and TE we're OK for now, but could use a couple of young guys to groom.

When healthy Wood is a very good Center. In the first Pats* game, Wood played very well against Wilfork, one of the best NTs in the NFL.

[Cleve]

This ESPN blog's analysis is consistent with what I posted regarding the stats earlier.

Gailey's offense is predicated on a lot of quick, short passes. We're 9th in the league in pass attempts, but 24th in yards per completed pass. The only passes that Fitzpatrick is capable of completing with any consistency are check-downs.

BTW, we're 27th in the league in rush attempts, which shows how often Gailey stupidly abandons the run for Blitzpatrick's check-downs.

And it really IS stupid!!!!! Buffalo is FOURTH in the LEAGUE in yards per rush. We have one of the BEST running games around... when we use it. Why does Gailey again and again rely on passing from Blitzpatrick???? He's no elite QB that's for certain. Does Gailey think he's suddenly going to get good????

If I was coach, and I had such a poor QB, I'd be running a heckuva lot more. I have watched games utterly puzzled at the reliance on Fitzpatrick's throws - we go three and out, three and out, three and out - because suddenly Gailey will direct Fitzpatrick to throw long - and 90% of the time it results in a 3 and out.

Why is Gailey so oblivious to the deficiencies of relying on a primarily passing offense when the QB is so limited in capabilities? Gailey is clearly a bad coach - a good coach would rely on the team's strengths - rather than hoping against hope that the weakest part of the offense will suddenly get good if he uses it enough!!!

Heck the average Bills game looks like that of a good team playing their back up QB..... Wait, Blitzpatrick really is a back up, at the end of the day, isn't he? We can call him a 'starter' but he really isn't.

[Jan Reimers]

I appreciate the various points of view on Fitz expressed in this post. My take is he will probably never be a great long ball thrower, but he could be better with a stronger LT and the return of Wood and Urbik, plus a speedy WR that can get deep and catch what is thrown near him.

Besides a pass rusher (or two), I see WR and LT as primary needs, although Hairston might develop at LT.

[mightysimi]

This ESPN blog's analysis is consistent with what I posted regarding the stats earlier.

Gailey's offense is predicated on a lot of quick, short passes. We're 9th in the league in pass attempts, but 24th in yards per completed pass. The only passes that Fitzpatrick is capable of completing with any consistency are check-downs.

BTW, we're 27th in the league in rush attempts, which shows how often Gailey stupidly abandons the run for Blitzpatrick's check-downs.

And it really IS stupid!!!!! Buffalo is FOURTH in the LEAGUE in yards per rush. We have one of the BEST running games around... when we use it. Why does Gailey again and again rely on passing from Blitzpatrick???? He's no elite QB that's for certain. Does Gailey think he's suddenly going to get good????

If I was coach, and I had such a poor QB, I'd be running a heckuva lot more. I have watched games utterly puzzled at the reliance on Fitzpatrick's throws - we go three and out, three and out, three and out - because suddenly Gailey will direct Fitzpatrick to throw long - and 90% of the time it results in a 3 and out.

Why is Gailey so oblivious to the deficiencies of relying on a primarily passing offense when the QB is so limited in capabilities? Gailey is clearly a bad coach - a good coach would rely on the team's strengths - rather than hoping against hope that the weakest part of the offense will suddenly get good if he uses it enough!!!

Heck the average Bills game looks like that of a good team playing their back up QB..... Wait, Blitzpatrick really is a back up, at the end of the day, isn't he? We can call him a 'starter' but he really isn't.


When you are down 21-0 at half, you pretty much need to score in a hurry because your D sure isn't helping matters. I think when we are close or winning, we run.

[TigerJ]

As I had stated in the first post, my purpose in posting the link was not yet another debate on whether Fitz should or shouldn't be the Bills QB. We've had plenty of those, and there will be more throughout the offseason and next fall too.

I appreciate that some have pointed out that as the season wore on, injuries to the offensive line have reduced the time that Fitz has had to throw downfield. Knowing that Fitz will be back next year, the Bills need to see if they can avoid the circumstances they ended up with this season, a patchwork offensive line that couldn't hold protection all that long. Fitz is known for making quick decisions and avoiding the sack, but obviously, when he's being hurried his accuracy goes downhill quickly. It appears he's not quite as mentally tough as we might have hoped. As Night Train points out, he doesn't have an elite skill to make great changes in what he's doing when defenses take something away. It's also true that while we have receivers with good size, with the exception of Steve Johnson, they don't have a particular knack for getting separation, at least those who are uninjured. Donald Jones and Roscoe Parrish have more quickness to get open than some of those who are still healthy.

The perfect solution would be for the Bills to stay perfectly healthy next season. Since we can't count on that, the team needs to raise the quality of its depth some.

Presumably, the Bills are still making up their mind about whether to re-sign Bell. If they don't, they need to acquire an offensive tackle who can start on the left side if need be. Hopefully, with an offseason of conditioning and an year's worth of experience under his belt, Hairston will be significantly improved and able to hold up better if he has to start at LT. I don't think guard is an especially urgent need. No team is going to keep more than 8 or 9 linemen on the active roster anyway. Buffalo has Wood, Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart and Brown as interior linemen and Bell, Pears, Hairston, and Young as tackles. If you can upgrade the depth some, it could help the offense, but the main problem this year has been the fact that out of the five positions on the offensive line, Buffalo has had reserves or guys playing out of position at three spots (60%) for a large chunk of the season. It's always going to be pretty tough to maintain offensive continuity under those circumstances.

The Bills are still hoping Marcus Easley can salvage an NFL career out of his horrendous start. That might really help, since he has near elite speed to go with an NFL sized body. Buffalo probably has to draft at least one receiver though. The question is whether they should truy to get another big body (Alshon Jeffery or Michael Floyd) early or take a chance on what they might get later on; a speedy little guy or maybe someone with some upside who didn't produce as well as expected in college.

[Buddo]

For all the stat line says we run the ball well, the fact of the matter is that we pass to set up the run.
Without big improvements along the O-Line (and having them all stay healthy would be a good start), we aren't going to be a 'run first' team.
The 'easiest' way to help the offense, is with a quality WR, which should probably come through the draft, as there seems to be decent options there in the first round, where we are likely to be picking.

Getting another WR who can get open, regularly, will make an awful lot of difference to the O. The less Fitz has to force throws, the better off we are.

[Ickybaluky]

For all the talk about running the ball or Fitzpatrick's limitations, the real issue with the Bills on offense are two-fold:

1) 3rd-down Conversions - The Bills convert only 33% on 3rd down, 26th in the NFL.

2) Red Zone Scoring - The Bills are 20th in the NFL in TD scoring percentage in the Red Zone.

Really, those two things are what they need to improve if they want to win. Inconsistent commitment to the run game may be part of those numbers, but those are the keys.