psubills62
01-03-2012, 11:02 AM
Last year I did an analysis of team drafts where Buddy Nix was a significant contributor. I'm planning on doing it again (updated with last year's draft), but now that I'm seeing a lot of draft threads, I thought I'd go ahead and just mention a few things that I expect to see.
There are two position groups that I've noticed Nix place a strong emphasis on: defensive backs and defensive line. The former group is emphasized in terms of both quality and quantity (lots of them and drafted early). The defensive linemen are drafted early, but don't come in large numbers.
One position group is emphasized in terms of quantity, but very de-emphasized when it comes to quality: offensive line. Nix tends to draft a lot of OL, but later in the draft. If I remember correctly, in 6-7 drafts with San Diego, there were maybe two offensive linemen drafted in the first three rounds - Marcus McNeill (2nd round), and a center (3rd round).
Most of the other positions were hit or miss - some drafted early, some drafted late, average numbers.
When coming up with mock drafts, I think people should consider these things. I'd also rank our team needs as follows:
Tier 1: WR, OLB, ILB, TE
Tier 2: CB, OT, QB, DE
Tier 3: S, OG, DT, RB
Of course, those position needs will change slightly depending on if we switch to a 4-3 (DE moves to Tier 1, rest stay same).
Considering everything, I'd say the most likely first round picks for specific positions are WR, OLB, and CB. I'd also guess that there is 0.1% chance we go with an OT (for full disclosure, I'd love to have a first round OT).
Anyway, just wanted to remind people of Nix's tendencies while thinking about the draft.
There are two position groups that I've noticed Nix place a strong emphasis on: defensive backs and defensive line. The former group is emphasized in terms of both quality and quantity (lots of them and drafted early). The defensive linemen are drafted early, but don't come in large numbers.
One position group is emphasized in terms of quantity, but very de-emphasized when it comes to quality: offensive line. Nix tends to draft a lot of OL, but later in the draft. If I remember correctly, in 6-7 drafts with San Diego, there were maybe two offensive linemen drafted in the first three rounds - Marcus McNeill (2nd round), and a center (3rd round).
Most of the other positions were hit or miss - some drafted early, some drafted late, average numbers.
When coming up with mock drafts, I think people should consider these things. I'd also rank our team needs as follows:
Tier 1: WR, OLB, ILB, TE
Tier 2: CB, OT, QB, DE
Tier 3: S, OG, DT, RB
Of course, those position needs will change slightly depending on if we switch to a 4-3 (DE moves to Tier 1, rest stay same).
Considering everything, I'd say the most likely first round picks for specific positions are WR, OLB, and CB. I'd also guess that there is 0.1% chance we go with an OT (for full disclosure, I'd love to have a first round OT).
Anyway, just wanted to remind people of Nix's tendencies while thinking about the draft.