BLeonard
01-29-2012, 05:59 PM
Thought this was an interesting read: http://nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/steviejohnsonvalue.php
Johnson should be worth somewhere between $8.45 and $8.6 million a year to a team. There is no escape from a three year total, which is essentially guaranteed. Other than Jennings, who only received 3 new years, all of the current long term extension players received around $30 million. He should not receive less than $28.5 million. In terms of firm guarantees he will be in the $18 million range. Holmes received $24 million which is far more than anyone else at the position, but nearly $8 million of that is a conditional guarantee based on being on the roster, something that he may not even be by the end of this month. That brings his real guarantee down into the $16 million range. So he will probably receive around $18 million in guaranteed money.
If the Bills can get Johnson for $7.5 million a season it’s a real steal. If the team still believes he is only worth $5.5 million a season then there is no possible way to reach a deal. Johnson is worth far more on the open market. The Bills can threaten Johnson with the franchise tag, but with an estimate of about $9.3 million I can’t see why they would do that. The franchise tag is meant for either an older player that is still playing well, such as 31 year old Wes Welker, or a one year wonder like Austin. Johnson will be 26 and has already put together 2 solid seasons. Franchising him does not benefit Buffalo in any way.
I’d be surprised if Johnson ends up under $8 million a season, unless it contains some relatively easy incentives to bump up the value of the deal. I also can’t see him reaching the $9 million threshold, but he firmly belongs somewhere in between. Buffalo should be coming down from that number not up from $5.5 million if they really want to keep him. If the $7.5 million a year still stands they should be calling up Johnson’s agent and asking him if Johnson can sign that deal right now. I guess we shall see in the next few months how this all plays out.
-Bill
Johnson should be worth somewhere between $8.45 and $8.6 million a year to a team. There is no escape from a three year total, which is essentially guaranteed. Other than Jennings, who only received 3 new years, all of the current long term extension players received around $30 million. He should not receive less than $28.5 million. In terms of firm guarantees he will be in the $18 million range. Holmes received $24 million which is far more than anyone else at the position, but nearly $8 million of that is a conditional guarantee based on being on the roster, something that he may not even be by the end of this month. That brings his real guarantee down into the $16 million range. So he will probably receive around $18 million in guaranteed money.
If the Bills can get Johnson for $7.5 million a season it’s a real steal. If the team still believes he is only worth $5.5 million a season then there is no possible way to reach a deal. Johnson is worth far more on the open market. The Bills can threaten Johnson with the franchise tag, but with an estimate of about $9.3 million I can’t see why they would do that. The franchise tag is meant for either an older player that is still playing well, such as 31 year old Wes Welker, or a one year wonder like Austin. Johnson will be 26 and has already put together 2 solid seasons. Franchising him does not benefit Buffalo in any way.
I’d be surprised if Johnson ends up under $8 million a season, unless it contains some relatively easy incentives to bump up the value of the deal. I also can’t see him reaching the $9 million threshold, but he firmly belongs somewhere in between. Buffalo should be coming down from that number not up from $5.5 million if they really want to keep him. If the $7.5 million a year still stands they should be calling up Johnson’s agent and asking him if Johnson can sign that deal right now. I guess we shall see in the next few months how this all plays out.
-Bill