Player Fits By Round 1.0

[JCBills]

Projections are obviously subject to change, and some players are hard to peg down. It would have been easier to go with round ranges, but I'm doing this at work and don't have a ton of time to dump into it.

"Fit" is referring to what Nix / Gailey like to look for, what we know the team needs, and value.

We know they like big WRs.
We know they need a couple of DEs and OLBs.
We know at some point, they'll probably take a CB.
We know they're looking to add an OT.

We think they might be looking to add another TE.
We think they might be looking to draft a QB.

Note: Buffalo has two picks in the 4th and 5th rounds.


1.
Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa - 6'6'' 300 Lbs
Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC - 6'3'' 250 Lbs
Courtney Upshaw - OLB/DE - Alabama - 6'1½'' 273 Lbs
Quinton Coples - DE - UNC - 6'5¾'' 281 Lbs
Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama - 6'2'' 192 Lbs
---
2.
Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M - 6'4'' 222 Lbs
Mohamed Sanu - WR - Rutgers - 6'2'' 215 Lbs
Alshon Jeffery - WR - South Carolina - 6'4'' 229 Lbs
Dwight Jones - WR - UNC - 6'3'' 226 Lbs
Vinny Curry - DE - Marshall - 6'3'' 265 Lbs
Andre Branch - DE - Clemson - 6'4'' 260 Lbs
Zach Brown - OLB - UNC - 6'1½'' 236 Lbs
---
3.
Kirk Cousins - QB - Michigan State - 6'3'' 205 Lbs
Juron Criner - WR - Arizona - 6'2'' 220 Lbs
Matt McCants - OT - UAB - 6'5½'' 309 Lbs
Cam Johnson - DE - Virginia - 6'3¾'' 267 Lbs
Nigel Bradham - OLB - Florida State - 6'1½'' - 237 Lbs
Josh Kaddu - OLB - Oregon - 6'3'' 235 Lbs
Travis Lewis - OLB - Oklahoma - 6'2'' 230 Lbs
---
4.
Ryan Lindley - QB - San Diego State - 6'3¾'' 229 Lbs
DeVier Posey - WR - Ohio State - 6'1½'' 209 Lbs
Marvin McNutt - WR - Iowa - 6'2½'' - 216 Lbs
Mitchell Schwartz - OT - Cal - 6'5'' 317 Lbs
Jack Crawford - DE - Penn State - 6'5'' 268 Lbs
Terrell Manning - OLB - NC State - 6'3'' 225 Lbs
Keith Tandy - CB - West Virginia - 5'10'' 202 Lbs
---
5.
Marvin Jones - WR - Cal - 6'2'' 198 Lbs
Jarrett Boykin - WR - Virginia Tech - 6'2'' 218 Lbs
Kevin Koger - TE - Michigan - 6'4'' 262 Lbs
Tom Compton - OT - South Dakota - 6'5¼'' 314 Lbs
Tyler Nielsen - OLB - Iowa - 6'3'' 235 Lbs
Jacquies Smith - DE/OLB - Missouri - 6'3'' 255 Lbs
Brandon Lindsey - DE/OLB - Pitt - 6'1½'' 250 Lbs
Donnie Fletcher - CB - Boston College - 6'0¼'' 201 Lbs
---
6.
A.J. Jenkins - WR - Illinois - 6'0'' 192 Lbs
George Bryan - TE - NC State - 6'5'' 265 Lbs
Evan Rodriguez - TE/FB - Temple - 6'1½'' 242 Lbs
Darius Fleming - OLB - Notre Dame - 6'2'' 255 Lbs
Julian Miller - DE - West Virginia - 6'3½'' 256 Lbs
---
7.
Lance Lewis - WR - ECU - 6'1'' 209 Lbs
B.J. Cunningham - WR - Michigan State - 6'1'' 209 Lbs
Anthony Miller - TE - Cal - 6'3'' 255 Lbs
Landon Walker - OT - Clemson - 6'5'' 301 Lbs
Tank Carder - OLB - TCU - 6'2'' 236 Lbs
Trevin Wade - CB - Arizona - 5'11'' 192 Lbs

The list isn't in any ranking order within rounds, but it is listed by position.

These are rough guesses before the combine moves some of their stock. Some are bound to go later or earlier than I have listed, that much is certain. Some of them have a range on where they can go like 2-3 or 4-6 etc, I might add those designations later.

Some fits aren't listed due to where we are picking in the round.

Feel free to comment and contribute.

[CleveSteve]

I really like the inclusion of Miller in the 6th. I thought he looked very athletic in the E/W shrine game. I don't agree with all the rounds you have listed, butI do like your list of players.

Oh yeah and I do think Bobby Wagner should be included at OLB in the 2nd for you guys.

[JCBills]

I really like the inclusion of Miller in the 6th. I thought he looked very athletic in the E/W shrine game. I don't agree with all the rounds you have listed, butI do like your list of players.

Oh yeah and I do think Bobby Wagner should be included at OLB in the 2nd for you guys.

Yeah they aren't solid, as stated, but with what I have to go on, this is where I have them pegged.

The combine will move grades no doubt, and I clearly don't have the time to grade everyone fairly, as I can't watch 2 or 3 games for each guy. Some were focused on more than others.

What placements don't sit right with you?

[CleveSteve]

Actually, for the most part I think it's pretty good. Mostly the second round guys... I think Tannehill, Sanu, Jeffrey, and Brown will be gone before 41 (first three will probably be top 25, though I'm shaky on Brown going... LBs tend to fall more than I expect.) Marvin Jones I think is a top 100 guy, and I wouldn't be surprised if AJ Jenkins moves into round 4 after the combine. Also, I'm not a big Lindley fan... I think he could possibly go undrafted.

But that's, just like... my opinion, man.

[CleveSteve]

Oh yeah, and I also would like Nick Toon in the 3rd as a possibility for you guys!

[JCBills]

Actually, for the most part I think it's pretty good. Mostly the second round guys... I think Tannehill, Sanu, Jeffrey, and Brown will be gone before 41 (first three will probably be top 25, though I'm shaky on Brown going... LBs tend to fall more than I expect.) Marvin Jones I think is a top 100 guy, and I wouldn't be surprised if AJ Jenkins moves into round 4 after the combine. Also, I'm not a big Lindley fan... I think he could possibly go undrafted.

But that's, just like... my opinion, man.

The 2nd rounders are a lot of "maybe 1st round" guys due to us picking early in the round. Depending on how teams value who, they could be there or not, that I know.

Jeffrey doesn't scream top 25 anymore. He could easily be there. Tannehill and Sanu I have pegged for end of 1st / early 2nd pre-combine.

Brown could light up the combine and move into the first. Linebackers with runningback speed and good size don't grow on trees.

Marvin Jones I'm iffy on. I have him as 3-5 right now.

We have an early and late pick in 4 and 5, so some are meant to be for the earlier one, and others the later.

[JCBills]

Oh yeah, and I also would like Nick Toon in the 3rd as a possibility for you guys!

This class has a lot of big bodied WRs they may target, I still have a lot to add. Toon, Randle, Hill, Streeter.

Hell, I wouldn't count Floyd out at #10 depending on what happens in FA and the combine. Of course it would be great if he was there at 41.

[YardRat]

Awwww, dammit :mad: I've been working on something similar, and now you've gone and stolen my thunder.

[CleveSteve]

Adding it here would be fun! Isn't that what threads are for?

[JCBills]

Awwww, dammit :mad: I've been working on something similar, and now you've gone and stolen my thunder.

PM me :P

2.0 can be a combined effort.

[Ed]

I would add TE Dwayne Allen to round 2. He's a prospect I like a lot, and you know Nix and Gailey are fans of Clemson offensive players.

And I would probably add Ingram to round 1 and maybe a WR like Floyd.

[JCBills]

I would add TE Dwayne Allen to round 2. He's a prospect I like a lot, and you know Nix and Gailey are fans of Clemson offensive players.

And I would probably add Ingram to round 1 and maybe a WR like Floyd.

Was just about to add some earlier TEs, but with the pressing D needs I've been hesitant to put one that early based on the other needs.

[TigerJ]

I believe that Buddy Nix has said he likes defensive ends with "length." By that, I think he means defensive ends who are on the tall side and with long arms. We also know the defensive system most associated with Dave Wannstedt calls for defensive ends and otside linebackers with lots of speed.

[JCBills]

I believe that Buddy Nix has said he likes defensive ends with "length." By that, I think he means defensive ends who are on the tall side and with long arms. We also know the defensive system most associated with Dave Wannstedt calls for defensive ends and otside linebackers with lots of speed.

That's why all but a few on the list have that, and why I'm hesitant on Upshaw being their pick at 10.

The only exceptions being Upshaw and Lindsey, and Lindsey is on there because of Wanny.

[TigerJ]

Yeah, I hear ya. If Coples is gone, it puts Nix in a difficult position given that finding a pass rusher is the #1 need this offseason. Buffalo may have to choose between waiting and hoping to find a fit at defensive end who might be of lesser quality, or picking a more talented guy early, who isn't as good a fit.

[JCBills]

Yeah, I hear ya. If Coples is gone, it puts Nix in a difficult position given that finding a pass rusher is the #1 need this offseason. Buffalo may have to choose between waiting and hoping to find a fit at defensive end who might be of lesser quality, or picking a more talented guy early, who isn't as good a fit.

I'm not as high on Coples as most, especially after the Senior Bowl.

I say this most years, but I'd love to see them try to move back.

Some contender that feels like they're just missing that one piece might feel it's worth it to move up and get their guy. It happens all the time now. Washington in 2011: Washington moved back from #10 to #16 and got an extra 2nd rounder #49. Denver in 2010: moved back from #11 to #13 and got an extra 4th rounder #113 (traded to NE who took Hernandez there).

I also know Nix usually doesn't move picks, though last year he said he was open to move back if the right offer was there.

Guys like Vinny Curry, Andre Branch, and Cam Johnson could be solid pickups in the earlier rounds outside the 1st that have that length. I'd actually like to see them take two DEs.

I'd also love to see them go after Mario Williams or Cliff Avril. Even if they sign either, draft a DE or two at some point.

If they wanted to solidify the D on all fronts and go Kirkpatrick at #10 followed by DE in the 2nd and a few OLBs between the 5 picks they have in rounds 3-5 I would be pretty happy.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

I'm not as high on Coples as most, especially after the Senior Bowl.

I say this most years, but I'd love to see them try to move back.

Some contender that feels like they're just missing that one piece might feel it's worth it to move up and get their guy. It happens all the time now. Washington in 2011: Washington moved back from #10 to #16 and got an extra 2nd rounder #49. Denver in 2010: moved back from #11 to #13 and got an extra 4th rounder #113 (traded to NE who took Hernandez there).

I also know Nix usually doesn't move picks, though last year he said he was open to move back if the right offer was there.

Guys like Vinny Curry, Andre Branch, and Cam Johnson could be solid pickups in the earlier rounds outside the 1st that have that length. I'd actually like to see them take two DEs.

I'd also love to see them go after Mario Williams or Cliff Avril. Even if they sign either, draft a DE or two at some point.

If they wanted to solidify the D on all fronts and go Kirkpatrick at #10 followed by DE in the 2nd and a few OLBs between the 5 picks they have in rounds 3-5 I would be pretty happy.

it just all depends on if they get mario or avril... if not, then im pretty sure they will target coples and then take upshaw if coples is gone.

obviously pass rush is the number 1 need and they will either be super aggressive in fa or draft coples/upshaw with that 1st pick...

there is no way in hell they go into the season with cam johnson as their big time rush end.. aint happening...

[k-oneputt]

With the 4-3 now I don't think they will take Upshaw.

[JCBills]

With the 4-3 now I don't think they will take Upshaw.

Despite this, I still see him mocked to us a lot.

That being said, I could also find mocks with us going DT at #10, and with Kyle Williams and Dareus, clearly that isn't a #10 need.

Now I'm not saying he couldn't be the pick, or couldn't be a good DE, as any discussion of Upshaw on here that doesn't paint him as a half man, half possible centaur, golden god, is seen as an attack on him.

[Ed]

I'm not as high on Coples as most, especially after the Senior Bowl.

I say this most years, but I'd love to see them try to move back.

Some contender that feels like they're just missing that one piece might feel it's worth it to move up and get their guy. It happens all the time now. Washington in 2011: Washington moved back from #10 to #16 and got an extra 2nd rounder #49. Denver in 2010: moved back from #11 to #13 and got an extra 4th rounder #113 (traded to NE who took Hernandez there).

I also know Nix usually doesn't move picks, though last year he said he was open to move back if the right offer was there.

Guys like Vinny Curry, Andre Branch, and Cam Johnson could be solid pickups in the earlier rounds outside the 1st that have that length. I'd actually like to see them take two DEs.

I'd also love to see them go after Mario Williams or Cliff Avril. Even if they sign either, draft a DE or two at some point.

If they wanted to solidify the D on all fronts and go Kirkpatrick at #10 followed by DE in the 2nd and a few OLBs between the 5 picks they have in rounds 3-5 I would be pretty happy.
I'm always a fan of moving down too and getting more picks. There's going to be a lot of good players available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I've seen a couple mocks that have the Bengals trading up with the Bills to get Trent Richardson since they have 2 first round picks this year. That's a trade I would like and one that could make sense for them.

Nix said in his press conference that DE was the biggest need and they need to add 1, but would like to add 2. So even if we did land a free agent DE, I think it would still be high on the list for the draft.

[better days]

I'm always a fan of moving down too and getting more picks. There's going to be a lot of good players available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I've seen a couple mocks that have the Bengals trading up with the Bills to get Trent Richardson since they have 2 first round picks this year. That's a trade I would like and one that could make sense for them.

Nix said in his press conference that DE was the biggest need and they need to add 1, but would like to add 2. So even if we did land a free agent DE, I think it would still be high on the list for the draft.

The Bengals draft 17 (from the Raiders) & 21. I would trade them the #10 pick for both of their #1 picks. I would not want to trade out of the top 10 for anything less.

[JCBills]

The Bengals draft 17 (from the Raiders) & 21. I would trade them the #10 pick for both of their #1 picks. I would not want to trade out of the top 10 for anything less.

I'd take a deal similar to what Jacksonville and Washington did in 2011.

#10 was traded for #16 and #49.

#10 for #17,#53, and the 5th rounder they got from NE for Ochocinco?

1.
2.
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7.

In any year, but especially with the need the team has for doubles or triples of some positions like DE and OLB, I'd take that.

[better days]

I'd take a deal similar to what Jacksonville and Washington did in 2011.

#10 was traded for #16 and #49.

#10 for #17,#53, and the 5th rounder they got from NE for Ochocinco?

1.
2.
2.
3.
4.
4.
5.
5.
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6.
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In any year, but especially with the need the team has for doubles or triples of some positions like DE and OLB, I'd take that.

I want both their #1 picks for the #10. I would be willing to throw in the pick from Seattle to sweeten the deal.

[CleveSteve]

The Bengals draft 17 (from the Raiders) & 21. I would trade them the #10 pick for both of their #1 picks. I would not want to trade out of the top 10 for anything less.

Man, the Cincy police would need a rape kit after that trade. #17 and their second is about equal value for #10 (and probably still a very good move for BUF.) #17 and #21 moves you up to #4 according to the DVC. It would also ensure them Trent Richardson ahead of Tampa and Washington.

[JCBills]

I want both their #1 picks for the #10. I would be willing to throw in the pick from Seattle to sweeten the deal.

It doesn't value out. I'd gladly take 2 or 3 picks to move back a few spots.

[k-oneputt]

It doesn't value out. I'd gladly take 2 or 3 picks to move back a few spots.

Wishful thinking. Never happen.

[Ed]

I want both their #1 picks for the #10. I would be willing to throw in the pick from Seattle to sweeten the deal.
Well what you want and what is realistic are two different things. The Bengals aren't going to give up two first rounders to move up 7 spots. We're not talking about moving up for a franchise qb.

I would take an extra 2nd rounder to drop 7 spots. If we start talking about throwing in extra picks to get both first rounders then we're not gaining any additional picks.

[JCBills]

Wishful thinking. Never happen.

Wishful? Yes, but never? I wouldn't say that, teams do it every year despite everyone claiming "Madden" at first talk of trade.

[Ickybaluky]

The Bengals rarely make draft-day trades involving picks, up or down. Look at their history under Mike Brown's ownership, they pretty much always stay at home and make their picks.

The idea that they will suddenly change that and make a huge move up involving both their 1sts seems unlikely at best. In the 1999 draft, Mike Ditka offered them his entire draft and 1st and 3rd round picks the following year for the #3 overall, and the Bengals said no (Washington later took the same deal for #5).

Cincy isn't going to suddenly decide to make a huge draft-day trade. They are going to stay at home and make their picks like they always do.

[JCBills]

The Bengals rarely make draft-day trades involving picks, up or down. Look at their history under Mike Brown's ownership, they pretty much always stay at home and make their picks.

The idea that they will suddenly change that and make a huge move up involving both their 1sts seems unlikely at best. In the 1999 draft, Mike Ditka offered them his entire draft and 1st and 3rd round picks the following year for the #3 overall, and the Bengals said no (Washington later took the same deal for #5).

Cincy isn't going to suddenly decide to make a huge draft-day trade. They are going to stay at home and make their picks like they always do.

Probably, and no one is saying they would. Just conversing over what was mentioned.

[better days]

It doesn't value out. I'd gladly take 2 or 3 picks to move back a few spots.

I would not take less than two #1s to trade out of the top 10. You are talking about the 10 best prospects in the draft. They are head & shoulders better than the picks that come after them as far as potential is concerned.
Like I said I would throw in an extra pick to sweeten the deal if necessary.

If the Bills were at 16 or 17, I would take less to trade down 7 spots, but 7 spots is not a few spots IMO it is a lot of spots. Especially when you are talking about trading out of the top 10.

[JCBills]

I would not take less than two #1s to trade out of the top 10. You are talking about the 10 best prospects in the draft. They are head & shoulders better than the picks that come after them as far as potential is concerned.
Like I said I would throw in an extra pick to sweeten the deal if necessary.

If the Bills were at 16 or 17, I would take less to trade down 7 spots, but 7 spots is not a few spots IMO it is a lot of spots. Especially when you are talking about trading out of the top 10.

Top 10 is all relative. Someone who is top 10 to one team could be back end 1st to another, we see it every year.

This draft's top end doesn't excite me like usual. There are tons of quality 2nd and 3rd round prospects, and we need multiple OLBs, DEs, and CBs just to finish one side of the ball.

[better days]

Well what you want and what is realistic are two different things. The Bengals aren't going to give up two first rounders to move up 7 spots. We're not talking about moving up for a franchise qb.

I would take an extra 2nd rounder to drop 7 spots. If we start talking about throwing in extra picks to get both first rounders then we're not gaining any additional picks.

Well, like I said the Bills pick is in the top 10. The Bengals pick is #17 FAR from the top 10. If they had the #14 or 15 pick I would be more inclined to make a trade for a #1 & #2 but the Bengals 2nd rnd pick will also be the #17 pick of that rnd.

I would rather take Coples or Upshaw with that #10 pick than to trade it myself unless I got a GREAT deal for it.

[JCBills]

Well, like I said the Bills pick is in the top 10. The Bengals pick is #17 FAR from the top 10. If they had the #14 or 15 pick I would be more inclined to make a trade for a #1 & #2 but the Bengals 2nd rnd pick will also be the #17 pick of that rnd.

I would rather take Coples or Upshaw with that #10 pick than to trade it myself unless I got a GREAT deal for it.

To each their own I guess.

I'm not sold on either, so I'd bump back to #21, see if Kirkpatrick was there, if not, go with a Z. Brown or V. Curry. 2nd round, depending on if they took OLB or DE, take the other. Now with an extra 2nd rounder, WR, CB, or TE. The more picks we have, the higher chance there is to fill holes, regardless of what round someone is taken.

[Ed]

Well, like I said the Bills pick is in the top 10. The Bengals pick is #17 FAR from the top 10. If they had the #14 or 15 pick I would be more inclined to make a trade for a #1 & #2 but the Bengals 2nd rnd pick will also be the #17 pick of that rnd.

I would rather take Coples or Upshaw with that #10 pick than to trade it myself unless I got a GREAT deal for it.
But we're not talking about any top 10 pick, we're talking about the #10 pick. You're really overvaluing moving up 7 spots. That's not "FAR".

I want Coples and if he's there I think he's the pick, but I don't see him making it to #10. I just don't see the value in taking a guy like Upshaw, Ingram, or Perry at #10. I'd rather trade back and take the extra 2nd rounder. You still might get the same player at #17 and you can still get great players in the 2nd round too.

[better days]

But we're not talking about any top 10 pick, we're talking about the #10 pick. You're really overvaluing moving up 7 spots. That's not "FAR".

I want Coples and if he's there I think he's the pick, but I don't see him making it to #10. I just don't see the value in taking a guy like Upshaw, Ingram, or Perry at #10. I'd rather trade back and take the extra 2nd rounder. You still might get the same player at #17 and you can still get great players in the 2nd round too.

Well, the further you go in the draft the more questions there are about the players. Yes GOOD players can be had later, but the gamble is greater. By the 7th rnd it is like trying to draw to an inside straight when you need three cards to make it.

If you could guarantee me Upshaw would be there at 17 I would make that trade for an extra 2nd, but I doubt he makes it out of the top 15.

[JCBills]

But we're not talking about any top 10 pick, we're talking about the #10 pick. You're really overvaluing moving up 7 spots. That's not "FAR".

I want Coples and if he's there I think he's the pick, but I don't see him making it to #10. I just don't see the value in taking a guy like Upshaw, Ingram, or Perry at #10. I'd rather trade back and take the extra 2nd rounder. You still might get the same player at #17 and you can still get great players in the 2nd round too.

If we were 1 player away and there was a sure thing at #10 I'd be against it, but neither of those are true, so if we can find a way to stock picks, I'd be all for it.

Rounds 2-4 should have a quantity of good players this year.

[better days]

If we were 1 player away and there was a sure thing at #10 I'd be against it, but neither of those are true, so if we can find a way to stock picks, I'd be all for it.

Rounds 2-4 should have a quantity of good players this year.

Well I am for getting the best player I can rather than a couple average to mediocre players / bench warmers myself.

[JCBills]

Well I am for getting the best player I can rather than a couple average to mediocre players / bench warmers myself.

Picking at #10 guarantees nothing.

Every year, guys inside the 1st round, guys inside the top 10, end up busts.

Every year, guys come out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds to be immediate contributors, solid starters, playmakers, and sometimes pro bowlers.

If anything, by moving back a few spots and getting more chances to land starters, the odds are favorable.

If we moved back instead of taking Maybin at #11, they could have had someone like B. Pettigrew, P. Harvin, M. Oher, J. Maclin, C. Matthews, plus an extra pick in 2 or 3?

Again, it is different when the top end is stacked and the first 15 guys are sure things.

[Ickybaluky]

Just for arguments sake --

Last 10 #10 overall picks:

Blaine Gabbert
Tyson Alualu
Michael Crabtree
Jerod Mayo
Amobi Okoye
Matt Leinart
Mike Williams
Dunta Robinson
Terrell Suggs
Levi Jones

Last 10 #17 overall picks:

Nate Solder
Mike Iupati
Josh Freeman
Gosder Cherilus
Jarvis Moss
Chad Greenway
David Pollack
D.J. Williams
Bryant Johnson
Phillip Buchanon

Seems like a mixed bag for both.

[better days]

Just for arguments sake --

Last 10 #10 overall picks:

Blaine Gabbert
Tyson Alualu
Michael Crabtree
Jerod Mayo
Amobi Okoye
Matt Leinart
Mike Williams
Dunta Robinson
Terrell Suggs
Levi Jones

Last 10 #17 overall picks:

Nate Solder
Mike Iupati
Josh Freeman
Gosder Cherilus
Jarvis Moss
Chad Greenway
David Pollack
D.J. Williams
Bryant Johnson
Phillip Buchanon

Seems like a mixed bag for both.

I agree mixed bag for both. I have already said Good players could be had later, but the gamble is greater. Gabbert & Leinart are both QBs, so the gamble was greater on them than a position player. Freeman also a QB that looks a a gamble that paid off as they sometimes do.

Like I said unless I was offered a GREAT deal, if I were GM, I would not trade down. The Pats* trade down all the time, but it always seems to be a GREAT deal for them to do so.

[JCBills]

I agree mixed bag for both. I have already said Good players could be had later, but the gamble is greater. Gabbert & Leinart are both QBs, so the gamble was greater on them than a position player. Freeman also a QB that looks a a gamble that paid off as they sometimes do.

Like I said unless I was offered a GREAT deal, if I were GM, I would not trade down. The Pats* trade down all the time, but it always seems to be a GREAT deal for them to do so.

Right, but they don't get #17 and #21 for #10.

I'm not talking those pick spots specifically either, just moving back in general.

I know it is very unlikely to happen, but if it were I'd be pretty amped.

[better days]

Picking at #10 guarantees nothing.

Every year, guys inside the 1st round, guys inside the top 10, end up busts.

Every year, guys come out of the 2nd and 3rd rounds to be immediate contributors, solid starters, playmakers, and sometimes pro bowlers.

If anything, by moving back a few spots and getting more chances to land starters, the odds are favorable.

If we moved back instead of taking Maybin at #11, they could have had someone like B. Pettigrew, P. Harvin, M. Oher, J. Maclin, C. Matthews, plus an extra pick in 2 or 3?

Again, it is different when the top end is stacked and the first 15 guys are sure things.

Or they could have drafted Orakpo, like they SHOULD have. I would take Orakpo over all those guys myself.

[better days]

Right, but they don't get #17 and #21 for #10.

I'm not talking those pick spots specifically either, just moving back in general.

I know it is very unlikely to happen, but if it were I'd be pretty amped.

I don't know why you would be amped to move down. If a player is a gamble at #10, he is a greater gamble further down the draft he goes.

I would be more amped to move up to #2 & draft RGIII myself. The Bills at #10 are only 8 picks from the 2 spot.

[JCBills]

I don't know why you would be amped to move down. If a player is a gamble at #10, he is a greater gamble further down the draft he goes.

I would be more amped to move up to #2 & draft RGIII myself. The Bills at #10 are only 8 picks from the 2 spot.

And that would require us to unload our draft to get that pick, which in a season where they are changing schemes, wouldn't excite me.

I'd be amped because then we have more chances to fill more needs with more good players.

[better days]

And that would require us to unload our draft to get that pick, which in a season where they are changing schemes, wouldn't excite me.

I'd be amped because then we have more chances to fill more needs with more good players.

Well, you are saying it would cost a bundle to move up 8 spots, but you would be HAPPY to move down 11 spots for ONLY an extra 2nd rnd pick. NO THANKS.

[JCBills]

Well, you are saying it would cost a bundle to move up 8 spots, but you would be HAPPY to move down 11 spots for ONLY an extra 2nd rnd pick. NO THANKS.

Right, that's about how it values out, except maybe add a 5th or 6th when comparing it to Washington / Jacksonville trade.

I'm not making these parameters up, there is a chart (that isn't followed exactly, but is used as a guide) and past trades to look at and figure out what would be about right.

There is clearly going to be a value difference between #10 to #2 and #10 to the #15 to #22 range.

[DraftBoy]

I don't know why you would be amped to move down. If a player is a gamble at #10, he is a greater gamble further down the draft he goes.

I would be more amped to move up to #2 & draft RGIII myself. The Bills at #10 are only 8 picks from the 2 spot.

Keep in mind though that value wise it's not quite that easy.

#2 is worth 2600 points per the pick value choice. #10 is worth half that at 1,300. We could literally trade every pick we have in the draft and not reach that value.

[better days]

Keep in mind though that value wise it's not quite that easy.

#2 is worth 2600 points per the pick value choice. #10 is worth half that at 1,300. We could literally trade every pick we have in the draft and not reach that value.


I understand that, but I think it is a STUPID system myself. I would not want to give up the farm for RGIII. He may be a franchise QB, but he could also be a bust.

In the same respect, I would not trade out of the 10 spot for the 21 pick in the 2nd rnd. I would rather gamble that the Bills could get one GREAT player at 10 than whatever they could get for 2 lower picks myself. And if it were a great trade for the Bills then why would the Bengals make that trade? ANSWER: they want a GREAT player.

[JCBills]

I look at it like this.

Would I rather have:

Quinton Coples

Or

Zack Brown
Vinny Curry
(plus maybe a 5th or 6th rounder)

I'd take option 2 all day.

That would have still nabbed two potential starters as well as a later depth pick if whoever traded theirs was feeling saucy.

With a laundry list of needs, I'd take more picks.

[JCBills]

I understand that, but I think it is a STUPID system myself. I would not want to give up the farm for RGIII. He may be a franchise QB, but he could also be a bust.

In the same respect, I would not trade out of the 10 spot for the 21 pick in the 2nd rnd. I would rather gamble that the Bills could get one GREAT player at 10 than whatever they could get for 2 lower picks myself. And if it were a great trade for the Bills then why would the Bengals make that trade? ANSWER: they want a GREAT player.

More like they are playoff contenders that feel like they are 1 piece away. Good teams can afford to do that when they don't have glaring weaknesses all over.

As you said, RGIII could easily be a bust. So could whoever they pick at #10. So could whoever goes later in the 1st.

[better days]

I look at it like this.

Would I rather have:

Quinton Coples

Or

Zack Brown
Vinny Curry
(plus maybe a 5th or 6th rounder)

I'd take option 2 all day.

That would have still nabbed two potential starters as well as a later depth pick if whoever traded theirs was feeling saucy.

With a laundry list of needs, I'd take more picks.

Well, you don't know if Brown or Curry would be there when the Bills pick, then what, if they are gone?

[better days]

More like they are playoff contenders that feel like they are 1 piece away. Good teams can afford to do that when they don't have glaring weaknesses all over.

As you said, RGIII could easily be a bust. So could whoever they pick at #10. So could whoever goes later in the 1st.

Agreed. I think that is the reason you don't see that many trades made. I would rather let the draft come to me & take the best player at my pick. I think Nix feels the same way.

[JCBills]

Well, you don't know if Brown or Curry would be there when the Bills pick, then what, if they are gone?

Specific names aside, I'm sure they have their board set up well enough to figure out who fits what need for solid value in those spots.

However, moving back does allow teams to target specific players a little easier. Currently mosy have Brown and Curry as borderline 1st and mid 2nd round picks. If they like someone enough, they can get they jump on them. Call it reaching, but some reaches pay off, and that term is relative.

[JCBills]

Agreed. I think that is the reason you don't see that many trades made. I would rather let the draft come to me & take the best player at my pick. I think Nix feels the same way.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NFL_Draft#Trades_and_notes

There were a ton of trades last year.

[Ickybaluky]

There were a ton of trades last year.

I think part of the reason for that was the new salary slotting system.

When the draft value chart was first set up, it was before salaries at the top of the draft skyrocketed. That made those top picks less valuable than the chart, because trading up not only required big compensation but also an over-sized contract. You had teams at the top of the draft who wanted to trade out and avoid paying those big contracts, but being unable to do so. That is why the Jets were able to make a trade up high for a Mark Sanchez for so little comp. Cleveland was willing to take much less than what it should have because they didn't want to be stuck with a big contract.

With the salaries capped at a more reasonable level, those picks are much more likely to be traded. Teams that covet players are willing to pay the big comp outlined on the chart because they know they aren't getting a double-whammy of a huge contract as well.

[Ed]

I understand that, but I think it is a STUPID system myself. I would not want to give up the farm for RGIII. He may be a franchise QB, but he could also be a bust.

In the same respect, I would not trade out of the 10 spot for the 21 pick in the 2nd rnd. I would rather gamble that the Bills could get one GREAT player at 10 than whatever they could get for 2 lower picks myself. And if it were a great trade for the Bills then why would the Bengals make that trade? ANSWER: they want a GREAT player.
Well it's all relative to who's available and what your needs are. A RB like Trent Richardson might be the BPA at #10 and a great value to a team like the Bengals, but doesn't offer much value to a team like the Bills that has Jackson and Spiller. Or the BPA at #10 might be a DT like Brockers, another position that the Bills don't need.

So if the BPA's at your pick aren't a good fit for your team, there can be a lot more value in trading down then reaching for a need.

[JCBills]

I'd hope they are more open to move than ever.

Nix said last year they are open to offers. Passing on Dareus would have been foolish, so obviously they lean towards staying when that is the case.

IF there isn't a clear-cut dominant force likely to be there at #10 that fills a need, I'd hope they open their ears.

[better days]

I'd hope they are more open to move than ever.

Nix said last year they are open to offers. Passing on Dareus would have been foolish, so obviously they lean towards staying when that is the case.

IF there isn't a clear-cut dominant force likely to be there at #10 that fills a need, I'd hope they open their ears.

Well, Coples & Upshaw would BOTH fill that need & I promise you neither will be there later in the draft. I vote NO to a trade down, UNLESS it is for GREAT value. And I'm not talking a single stinkin 2nd rnd pick.

[better days]

Specific names aside, I'm sure they have their board set up well enough to figure out who fits what need for solid value in those spots.

However, moving back does allow teams to target specific players a little easier. Currently mosy have Brown and Curry as borderline 1st and mid 2nd round picks. If they like someone enough, they can get they jump on them. Call it reaching, but some reaches pay off, and that term is relative.

The higher you are the more players there are to choose from. As the draft goes on, players come off the board. Therefore the higher you are the easier it is to target specific players.

[better days]

Well it's all relative to who's available and what your needs are. A RB like Trent Richardson might be the BPA at #10 and a great value to a team like the Bengals, but doesn't offer much value to a team like the Bills that has Jackson and Spiller. Or the BPA at #10 might be a DT like Brockers, another position that the Bills don't need.

So if the BPA's at your pick aren't a good fit for your team, there can be a lot more value in trading down then reaching for a need.

Well, there should be a FEW players available that could be drafted at #10. I would love Coples at 10, but would be very happy if he is gone to take Upshaw there.

[YardRat]

I think part of the reason for that was the new salary slotting system.

When the draft value chart was first set up, it was before salaries at the top of the draft skyrocketed. That made those top picks less valuable than the chart, because trading up not only required big compensation but also an over-sized contract. You had teams at the top of the draft who wanted to trade out and avoid paying those big contracts, but being unable to do so. That is why the Jets were able to make a trade up high for a Mark Sanchez for so little comp. Cleveland was willing to take much less than what it should have because they didn't want to be stuck with a big contract.

With the salaries capped at a more reasonable level, those picks are much more likely to be traded. Teams that covet players are willing to pay the big comp outlined on the chart because they know they aren't getting a double-whammy of a huge contract as well.

The converse to that is teams with the higher picks aren't willing to give them away as easily because they know they won't be hit with the big contract, so it all equals out.

[better days]

The converse to that is teams with the higher picks aren't willing to give them away as easily because they know they won't be hit with the big contract, so it all equals out.

All of which makes trading harder to do with the top picks.

[JCBills]

Well, Coples & Upshaw would BOTH fill that need & I promise you neither will be there later in the draft. I vote NO to a trade down, UNLESS it is for GREAT value. And I'm not talking a single stinkin 2nd rnd pick.

An extra 2nd and maybe a 5th or 6th (again, looking at the Washington - Jacksonville move) would value out decently.

#10 is worth 1300 Pts

#17 is worth 950 Pts
#53 is worth 370 Pts

#10 (1300) was swapped for #16 (1000) and #49 (410)

If we do:

#10 (1300) for #17 (950) and #53 (370)

An additional 4th or 5th would be within reason as an asking price, if a 5th possibly even a 2013 pick too.

I would gladly move back 7 spots to get an extra 2nd and 4th.

[YardRat]

Truth be known, and taking into account the entire first round, there were less trades last year than in any year back to 1997.

[better days]

An extra 2nd and maybe a 5th or 6th (again, looking at the Washington - Jacksonville move) would value out decently.

#10 is worth 1300 Pts

#17 is worth 950 Pts
#53 is worth 370 Pts

#10 (1300) was swapped for #16 (1000) and #49 (410)

If we do:

#10 (1300) for #17 (950) and #53 (370)

An additional 4th or 5th would be within reason as an asking price, if a 5th possibly even a 2013 pick too.

I would gladly move back 7 spots to get an extra 2nd and 4th.

Well, if not two #1 picks this year, I would trade our #10 pick for their #17 & a 3rd or 4th rnd pick & their 1st rnd pick next year. One way or the other, I want two #1 picks to move out of the top 10.

Who were the players taken with those picks last year? Just curious to see who got the better of the deal.

[JCBills]

Well, if not two #1 picks this year, I would trade our #10 pick for their #17 & a 3rd or 4th rnd pick & their 1st rnd pick next year. One way or the other, I want two #1 picks to move out of the top 10.

Who were the players taken with those picks last year? Just curious to see who got the better of the deal.

Washington took Ryan Kerrigan at #16.

16 Games Played
16 Games Started
63 Tackles
7.5 Sacks
1 INT
4 PD
4 FF

#49 was traded to the Colts, who took Ben Ijalana, who tore his ACL.

Jacksonville took Blaine Gabbert at #10.

[JCBills]

Truth be known, and taking into account the entire first round, there were less trades last year than in any year back to 1997.

What a fun fact.

[YardRat]

Here's my version...

1-Quinton Coples, DE, NC
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, 'Bama
Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, S.Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, 'Bama

2-Alshon Jeffery, WR, S.Carolina
Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
Bruce Irvin, OLB, WVU

3-Bobby Massey, OT, Ol Miss
Stephen Hill, WR, GaTech
Kirk Cousins, QB, Mich St
Ladarius Green, TE, La-Lafayette

4a-Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
DeQuan Menzie, CB, 'Bama
Michael Brewster, C, Ohio St
Nate Potter, OT, Boise St

4b-Brandon Lindsey, OLB, Pitt
Kevin Koger, TE, Mich
Tysyn Hartman, FS, KState
Marquis Maze, WR, 'Bama

5a-Donte Paige-Moss, DE, NC
Andrew Datko, OT, FlaSt
Najee Good, MLB, WVU
Antoine McCaine, G, Clemson

5b-Bradie Ewing, FB, Wisconsin
Adrian Robinson, OLB, Temple
Lance Lewis, WR, East Carolina
Quenton Washington, CB, S.Fla

6-DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia
Jerrett Boykin, WR, VirgTech
Desmond Marrow, CB, Toledo
Mike Ryan, OT, UConn

7-Vince Brown, DE, Northwestern
Greg Williams, OLB, Pitt
Cam Holland, C, NC
Adrien Robinson, TE, Cincinnati

[JCBills]

Here's my version...

1-Quinton Coples, DE, NC
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, 'Bama
Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, S.Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, 'Bama

2-Alshon Jeffery, WR, S.Carolina
Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
Bruce Irvin, OLB, WVU

3-Bobby Massey, OT, Ol Miss
Stephen Hill, WR, GaTech
Kirk Cousins, QB, Mich St
Ladarius Green, TE, La-Lafayette

4a-Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
DeQuan Menzie, CB, 'Bama
Michael Brewster, C, Ohio St
Nate Potter, OT, Boise St

4b-Brandon Lindsey, OLB, Pitt
Kevin Koger, TE, Mich
Tysyn Hartman, FS, KState
Marquis Maze, WR, 'Bama

5a-Donte Paige-Moss, DE, NC
Andrew Datko, OT, FlaSt
Najee Good, MLB, WVU
Antoine McCaine, G, Clemson

5b-Bradie Ewing, FB, Wisconsin
Adrian Robinson, OLB, Temple
Lance Lewis, WR, East Carolina
Quenton Washington, CB, S.Fla

6-DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia
Jerrett Boykin, WR, VirgTech
Desmond Marrow, CB, Toledo
Mike Ryan, OT, UConn

7-Vince Brown, DE, Northwestern
Greg Williams, OLB, Pitt
Cam Holland, C, NC
Adrien Robinson, TE, Cincinnati

Looks like we have them prioritizing the same early on, but then idea shift a little later on.

I didn't really go with any interior line picks because I don't have it near the top of their needs, and that's really what I based the list on. Same goes with S, DT, and ILB.

[YardRat]

Looks like we have them prioritizing the same early on, but then idea shift a little later on.

I didn't really go with any interior line picks because I don't have it near the top of their needs, and that's really what I based the list on. Same goes with S, DT, and ILB.

I tend to look later in the pundits rankings for the later rounds, because historically that's when the picks start to get the 'Who the hell is that?' or 'I've never heard of him' reactions.

I also felt compelled to throw in some non-higher needs positions because we just know there's always a chance we're going to grab one or two those.

[JCBills]

I tend to look later in the pundits rankings for the later rounds, because historically that's when the picks start to get the 'Who the hell is that?' or 'I've never heard of him' reactions.

I also felt compelled to throw in some non-higher needs positions because we just know there's always a chance we're going to grab one or two those.

Yeah, I might pepper in a S or ILB later on.

There are a few guys I'm able to track for a good portion of the season and grade based on that, but as you said, without the time to do so for everyone, some late picks are based off of bits of games, someone else's film review, compiling scouting reports, and so on. It used to be a bit easier on here when the draft area was more active, sharing opinions and info with DB, X, and a few others, but that died a little bit. I'd like to revive that.

[YardRat]

Yeah, I might pepper in a S or ILB later on.

There are a few guys I'm able to track for a good portion of the season and grade based on that, but as you said, without the time to do so for everyone, some late picks are based off of bits of games, someone else's film review, compiling scouting reports, and so on. It used to be a bit easier on here when the draft area was more active, sharing opinions and info with DB, X, and a few others, but that died a little bit. I'd like to revive that.

DB having his own site now and X dealing with real life has put a damper on that.

****ers have their priorities all mixed up.

[YardRat]

I'm making some alterations in the first two rounds after the DE signings...

1-Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (was Quinton Coples, DE, NC)
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (was Courtney Upshaw, OLB, 'Bama)
Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, S.Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, 'Bama

2-Alshon Jeffery, WR, S.Carolina
Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Donte' Hightower, ILB, 'Bama (was Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall)
Bruce Irvin, OLB, WVU

3-Bobby Massey, OT, Ol Miss
Stephen Hill, WR, GaTech
Kirk Cousins, QB, Mich St
Ladarius Green, TE, La-Lafayette

4a-Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
DeQuan Menzie, CB, 'Bama
Michael Brewster, C, Ohio St
Nate Potter, OT, Boise St

4b-Brandon Lindsey, OLB, Pitt
Kevin Koger, TE, Mich
Tysyn Hartman, FS, KState
Marquis Maze, WR, 'Bama

5a-Donte Paige-Moss, DE, NC
Andrew Datko, OT, FlaSt
Najee Good, MLB, WVU
Antoine McCaine, G, Clemson

5b-Bradie Ewing, FB, Wisconsin
Adrian Robinson, OLB, Temple
Lance Lewis, WR, East Carolina
Quenton Washington, CB, S.Fla

6-DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia
Jerrett Boykin, WR, VirgTech
Desmond Marrow, CB, Toledo
Mike Ryan, OT, UConn

7-Vince Brown, DE, Northwestern
Greg Williams, OLB, Pitt
Cam Holland, C, NC
Adrien Robinson, TE, Cincinnati

[JCBills]

I'm working on another list as well.

Been working on my drums so I haven't had time for this but it'll be out before the draft.

[Bert102176]

I would add TE Dwayne Allen to round 2. He's a prospect I like a lot, and you know Nix and Gailey are fans of Clemson offensive players.

And I would probably add Ingram to round 1 and maybe a WR like Floyd.


round 1 should be Floyd

[Bert102176]

would be nice to get 2 key offensive weapons rounds 1 and 2

[Mr. Pink]

Tannehill will go in round 1 to someone.

[YardRat]

1-Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Stephon Gilmore, CB, S.Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, 'Bama

2-Bobby Massie, OT, Ol Miss
Stephen Hill, WR, GaTech
Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
Bruce Irvin, OLB, WVU

3-Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Kirk Cousins, QB, Mich St
Ladarius Green, TE, La-Lafayette
Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

4a-Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
DeQuan Menzie, CB, 'Bama
Michael Brewster, C, Ohio St
Nate Potter, OT, Boise St

4b-Brandon Lindsey, OLB, Pitt
Kevin Koger, TE, Mich
Tysyn Hartman, FS, KState
Marquis Maze, WR, 'Bama

5a-Donte Paige-Moss, DE, NC
Andrew Datko, OT, FlaSt
Najee Good, MLB, WVU
Antoine McCaine, G, Clemson

5b-Bradie Ewing, FB, Wisconsin
Adrian Robinson, OLB, Temple
Lance Lewis, WR, East Carolina
Quenton Washington, CB, S.Fla

6-DeAngelo Tyson, DT, Georgia
Jerrett Boykin, WR, VirgTech
Desmond Marrow, CB, Toledo
Mike Ryan, OT, UConn

7a-Sean Richardson, SS, Vanderbilt
Korey Toomer, OLB, Idaho
Dale Moss, WR, South Dakota State
Gino Gradkowski, G, Delaware.

7b-Vince Brown, DE, Northwestern
Greg Williams, OLB, Pitt
Cam Holland, C, NC
Adrien Robinson, TE, Cincinnati