BBD Mock v4.0

[DraftBoy]

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012-nfl-mock-draft/

Four Rounds, Five Picks...comments on picks through Round 2.

[Scumbag College]

I can't see the Bills going with an OT at #10 with the success they have had with UFDAs and mid to late round picks recently. Hariston and Pears aren't ideal, but there are other positions on the Bills that are just pitiful. I'm not sure about Bell's contract situation and health, but he's one to throw into the mix at OT, too.

I think the quickest way the Bills get better is with a pass rush. Also, if Steve Johnson walks and the Bills don't get a starting caliber WR in free agency, then that might be a thought in the first round as well. I think the Bills have to use at least two of the first three picks on pass rushers unless DE and OLB are addressed in free agency.

[The Jokeman]

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012-nfl-mock-draft/

Four Rounds, Five Picks...comments on picks through Round 2.

Round 1 Mike Adams, he was on my radar in the preseason but his stock has fallen a little since then as still see him as a 1st Rounder but the reports I've read rank him below Jonathan Martin. Not a bad pick if Demetrius Bell is lost in UFA but might be considered a bit of a reach if we traded down to pick 16-24 like this pick a lot more. EDIT: Or another possibly would be the trade partner with Dallas that allow them to get Kendall Wright be great. If they were to give us a pick in the 3rd Round this year or possibly a 2nd in 2013.

Round 2 DE Ronnell Lewis, his lack of size scares me as a DE. I prefer guys in the 265 range. His sack totals have never been big. If reports that he could be a 6-8 sack guy which are good but not great and being we more of an Aaron Schobel than a Chris Kelsay was hoping for a 8-12 sack guy. Passing on Vinny Curry was a slight surprise yet I know he's sliding down the draft charts not sure would want to let him pass us though.

Round 3 CB Alonzo Dennard, great value if he did fall this far. As I see him as a mid to late 2nd Rounder. Could definately step in as a nickel CB as a rookie and be a guy to replacing an aging Drayton Florence in 2013.

Round 4A QB BJ Coleman, might never be more than an NFL backup but I like taking a chance on a QB in this round since we have two picks to use. Yet all the scouting reports give him high intangible rankings which good for QBs taken later than sooner.


Round 4B OLB Keenan Robinson, grades well for a 4-3 SLB. He might not be a compliment to Sheppherd though as read he's another react type guy. That said not a bad pick in the 4th Round.

Grade B+ I like it a helluva better than your last mock. My least favorite pick was Lewis but all and all solid job filling needs just a matter of my personal preferences in Rounds 1 and 2 but wouldn't be overly disappointed with this draft on the whole.

[JCBills]

Round 1 Mike Adams, he was on my radar in the preseason but his stock has fallen a little since then as still see him as a 1st Rounder but the reports I've read rank him below Jonathan Martin. Not a bad pick if Demetrius Bell is lost in UFA but might be considered a bit of a reach if we traded down to pick 16-24 like this pick a lot more. EDIT: Or another possibly would be the trade partner with Dallas that allow them to get Kendall Wright be great. If they were to give us a pick in the 3rd Round this year or possibly a 2nd in 2013.

Round 2 DE Ronnell Lewis, his lack of size scares me as a DE. I prefer guys in the 265 range. His sack totals have never been big. If reports that he could be a 6-8 sack guy which are good but not great and being we more of an Aaron Schobel than a Chris Kelsay was hoping for a 8-12 sack guy. Passing on Vinny Curry was a slight surprise yet I know he's sliding down the draft charts not sure would want to let him pass us though.

Round 3 CB Alonzo Dennard, great value if he did fall this far. As I see him as a mid to late 2nd Rounder. Could definately step in as a nickel CB as a rookie and be a guy to replacing an aging Drayton Florence in 2013.

Round 4A QB BJ Coleman, might never be more than an NFL backup but I like taking a chance on a QB in this round since we have two picks to use. Yet all the scouting reports give him high intangible rankings which good for QBs taken later than sooner.

Round 4B OLB Keenan Robinson, grades well for a 4-3 SLB. He might not be a compliment to Sheppherd though as read he's another react type guy. That said not a bad pick in the 4th Round.

Grade B+ I like it a helluva better than your last mock. My least favorite pick was Lewis but all and all solid job filling needs just a matter of my personal preferences in Rounds 1 and 2 but wouldn't be overly disappointed with this draft on the whole.

I doubt they look OT at #10 with Nix's draft history.

The earliest the Chargers took an OT was the 2nd round, Marcus McNeill in 2006. They spent one other 2nd rounder on OG Toniu Fonoti in 2002, and a 3rd rounder on Nick Hardwick in 2004. Other than that, it was mid and late round picks on OL.

Not saying it isn't possible, but with the team's needs on defense, I'm thinking they probably look to that side of the ball again this year, except maybe a wideout depending on FA and the Stevie situation.

Agreed on Lewis, and I haven't seen anything about Curry sliding right now. He had an impressive Senior Bowl showing, and I'm also on the same page with ideal size. There are always exceptions, but I'd prefer someone with the size to hold up against the run. They also said they were looking for someone with length, so I think more than just long arms.

[TigerJ]

If you're assuming Buffalo signs someone like Mario Williams or Cliff Avrill as a free agent, I like it a lot, but I would fear having to go into next season depending on Shawn Merriman's ability to get and stay healthy and switch back to his college position, and Chris Kelsay competing with Alex Carrington for the starting role at LDE.

[Cali512]

I litterally was smiling and saying wow this is realistic. Then i got to bills and it said OT and i shut it off. The only OT i would think about is Kalil but we neeeeed a DE

[jamze132]

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012-nfl-mock-draft/

Four Rounds, Five Picks...comments on picks through Round 2.
Nix ain't drafting no O-lineman in the 1st. Stop trying to outsmart yourself!

[Raptor]

Is Mike Adams really worth the 10th pick in the draft? Can we move down and get him? We would take him over J.Martin?

Ill admit I don't remember him from this past year but I also only watched about one Ohio State game

[alohabillsfan]

RD 1 I would puke.
RD 2 Just what we need another 240 lb DE, no thank you
RD 3 Its Alfonzo not Alonzo, just saying.
RD 4 Doubt we invest in another QB with what they are paying Fitz and Thig. Next year I believe they will pick a QB.

I do appriciate the effort that you put in. I know its a ton of hours... so thanks.


RD1-OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
RD2-DE Whitney Mercilus, no way he makes it out of RD 1 though...
RD3-CB Alonzo Dennard, Nebraska, again most likely gone RD 1
RD4-Brandon Mosley, OT, Auburn, raw talent lots of upside.
RD4-Jordan White, WR, Western Michigan

[Jan Reimers]

I think that our biggest need, by far, is a pass rush. This mock doesn't really meet that need. I would look for the best pass rushing DE or OLB in the first round rather than an OT. I believe the Bills really like Hairston at LT.

[DraftBoy]

I can't see the Bills going with an OT at #10 with the success they have had with UFDAs and mid to late round picks recently. Hariston and Pears aren't ideal, but there are other positions on the Bills that are just pitiful. I'm not sure about Bell's contract situation and health, but he's one to throw into the mix at OT, too.

I think the quickest way the Bills get better is with a pass rush. Also, if Steve Johnson walks and the Bills don't get a starting caliber WR in free agency, then that might be a thought in the first round as well. I think the Bills have to use at least two of the first three picks on pass rushers unless DE and OLB are addressed in free agency.

At some point you have to get away from only utilizing UDFA's and take a top end talent. The Bills aren't very good at OT and I know the sacks number will get trumpeted but nobody who watched the Bills can honestly say we have our answer at OT for the next 10 years.

I put OT at need 1b with pass rush at 1a. I dont like the value for pass rushers at 10 in that scenario.

Absolutely on the WR angle and I think CB will be in play too with Kirkpatrick.

[DraftBoy]

Round 1 Mike Adams, he was on my radar in the preseason but his stock has fallen a little since then as still see him as a 1st Rounder but the reports I've read rank him below Jonathan Martin. Not a bad pick if Demetrius Bell is lost in UFA but might be considered a bit of a reach if we traded down to pick 16-24 like this pick a lot more. EDIT: Or another possibly would be the trade partner with Dallas that allow them to get Kendall Wright be great. If they were to give us a pick in the 3rd Round this year or possibly a 2nd in 2013.

Round 2 DE Ronnell Lewis, his lack of size scares me as a DE. I prefer guys in the 265 range. His sack totals have never been big. If reports that he could be a 6-8 sack guy which are good but not great and being we more of an Aaron Schobel than a Chris Kelsay was hoping for a 8-12 sack guy. Passing on Vinny Curry was a slight surprise yet I know he's sliding down the draft charts not sure would want to let him pass us though.

Round 3 CB Alonzo Dennard, great value if he did fall this far. As I see him as a mid to late 2nd Rounder. Could definately step in as a nickel CB as a rookie and be a guy to replacing an aging Drayton Florence in 2013.

Round 4A QB BJ Coleman, might never be more than an NFL backup but I like taking a chance on a QB in this round since we have two picks to use. Yet all the scouting reports give him high intangible rankings which good for QBs taken later than sooner.


Round 4B OLB Keenan Robinson, grades well for a 4-3 SLB. He might not be a compliment to Sheppherd though as read he's another react type guy. That said not a bad pick in the 4th Round.

Grade B+ I like it a helluva better than your last mock. My least favorite pick was Lewis but all and all solid job filling needs just a matter of my personal preferences in Rounds 1 and 2 but wouldn't be overly disappointed with this draft on the whole.

Adams likely wont be there much lower, LT tend to get over drafted. Trade down and you may be forced to reach on another player.

Lewis is a guy Im very high on after doing another review of his film last week. He is a guy I think will be a much better pro than college player. He showed flashes last year before nagging injuries kept him down. His weight doesn't concern me because he generates good power.

Dennard is slipping, does he fall that much? Not sure but he did in the situation and it make the pick a no brainer.

Thanks for reading and the feedback!

[DraftBoy]

I doubt they look OT at #10 with Nix's draft history.

The earliest the Chargers took an OT was the 2nd round, Marcus McNeill in 2006. They spent one other 2nd rounder on OG Toniu Fonoti in 2002, and a 3rd rounder on Nick Hardwick in 2004. Other than that, it was mid and late round picks on OL.

Not saying it isn't possible, but with the team's needs on defense, I'm thinking they probably look to that side of the ball again this year, except maybe a wideout depending on FA and the Stevie situation.

Agreed on Lewis, and I haven't seen anything about Curry sliding right now. He had an impressive Senior Bowl showing, and I'm also on the same page with ideal size. There are always exceptions, but I'd prefer someone with the size to hold up against the run. They also said they were looking for someone with length, so I think more than just long arms.

Yep this contradicts Nix's draft history fully in regards to an OT but not in regards to BPA. Adams was the top player on my board at the time of the pick. Pass rush would of required us to reach for a player who doesn't fit or wasn't of equal value.

[DraftBoy]

If you're assuming Buffalo signs someone like Mario Williams or Cliff Avrill as a free agent, I like it a lot, but I would fear having to go into next season depending on Shawn Merriman's ability to get and stay healthy and switch back to his college position, and Chris Kelsay competing with Alex Carrington for the starting role at LDE.

Im assuming it goes draft tomorrow and FA next week.

[DraftBoy]

Nix ain't drafting no O-lineman in the 1st. Stop trying to outsmart yourself!

Not about outsmarting ourselves as much as it is to being open to idea of different options. Like I always say with these, I dont go for accuracy till my very last one. Before that its all about combinations, fits, values, reaches, and steals.

[DraftBoy]

Is Mike Adams really worth the 10th pick in the draft? Can we move down and get him? We would take him over J.Martin?

Ill admit I don't remember him from this past year but I also only watched about one Ohio State game

That's the debate. Some have him high, some have him low. It all depends at this point on who you talk to.

For example McShay has Adams 27, I have Adams at 10. Right now while most teams boards are close to set many in the draft analyst community are trying to figure it out.

[DraftBoy]

RD 1 I would puke.
RD 2 Just what we need another 240 lb DE, no thank you
RD 3 Its Alfonzo not Alonzo, just saying.
RD 4 Doubt we invest in another QB with what they are paying Fitz and Thig. Next year I believe they will pick a QB.

I do appriciate the effort that you put in. I know its a ton of hours... so thanks.


RD1-OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
RD2-DE Whitney Mercilus, no way he makes it out of RD 1 though...
RD3-CB Alonzo Dennard, Nebraska, again most likely gone RD 1
RD4-Brandon Mosley, OT, Auburn, raw talent lots of upside.
RD4-Jordan White, WR, Western Michigan

Thanks for the mention on Alfonzo, I'm an ididot. Also thanks for the comment on effort, it actually doesn't take very long to do the picks themselves, its the comments that take forever and get annoying.

I still cant see how Upshaw fits in a 43 system as a DE or OLB, but I know many fans are enamored with him.

No desire to take Mercilus who is a one trick pony, he beat Adams twice in the first half of Ill v. Ohio State this year but Adams adjusted his stance at halftime and Mercilus couldn't adjust back. That concerns me greatly.

Mosley is another guy I want nothing to do with. Consistent under preformer, nice power and length but don't like his tech at all.

Love Jordan White but he's a slot WR which we have an abundance of.

[DraftBoy]

I think that our biggest need, by far, is a pass rush. This mock doesn't really meet that need. I would look for the best pass rushing DE or OLB in the first round rather than an OT. I believe the Bills really like Hairston at LT.

1a. Pass Rush
1b. Offensive Tackles

The value just wasn't there for me. The next pass rusher to go was 5 pick later in Upshaw who I dont see in a 43 system and then Ingram at 18 who is an even worse fit.

Not one 43 DE goes till pick 30 where Nick Perry goes to SF who when I mocked at 10 people hated.

[TacklingDummy]

1a. Pass Rush
1b. Offensive Tackles



1a. Pass Rush
1b. Pass Rush
2a. LB's
2b. WR
3a. CB
3b. LB's

[jamze132]

Not about outsmarting ourselves as much as it is to being open to idea of different options. Like I always say with these, I dont go for accuracy till my very last one. Before that its all about combinations, fits, values, reaches, and steals.
Well we'll see what happens after the combine.

[justasportsfan]

only way that happens is if the bills land themselves a big FA pass rusher.

[Mski]

I still cant see how Upshaw fits in a 43 system as a DE or OLB, but I know many fans are enamored with him.i think its a situation similar to Fairley from last year... the team had a great BCS game, so he's the freshest on everyones mind, as it gets closer to the draft people will start to remember there are other players on other teams better fitting than him

[DraftBoy]

only way that happens is if the bills land themselves a big FA pass rusher.

Which probably won't happen and even if it doesn't Im not sure I'd change the pick or the direction. You don't reach for need see what has happened with the Troup selection.

[Mski]

Which probably won't happen and even if it doesn't Im not sure I'd change the pick or the direction. You don't reach for need see what has happened with the Troup selection.i think with the spiller pick, nix showed he will take what he consideres BPA in the first round, even if its not a position of need

[DraftBoy]

i think with the spiller pick, nix showed he will take what he consideres BPA in the first round, even if its not a position of need

Absolutely.

[PTI]

Luke Kuechely is a 1st rounder.

[DraftBoy]

Luke Kuechely is a 1st rounder.

No he's not.

[justasportsfan]

Which probably won't happen and even if it doesn't Im not sure I'd change the pick or the direction. You don't reach for need see what has happened with the Troup selection.


bills think they can get OL from someones practice squad.

[better days]

Which probably won't happen and even if it doesn't Im not sure I'd change the pick or the direction. You don't reach for need see what has happened with the Troup selection.

The only similarity between Troup & Upshaw is they both play defense. Troup had limited production against lesser competition. Upshaw was productive over a long period of time against the best competition in College ball.

[JCBills]

The only similarity between Troup & Upshaw is they both play defense. Troup had limited production against lesser competition. Upshaw was productive over a long period of time against the best competition in College ball.

Troup was very productive for a DT over a few seasons at UCF.

Troup came from a D with pretty good talent in a few spots, namely the line. Some see that as a knock, some see it as a positive. One might argue he was productive because of the DEs, another might argue the DEs were productive because of the DTs allowing the edge to have 1 on 1s all day. It goes both ways.

Upshaw comes from a stacked D, so it is sometimes hard to see who is reaping the benefits of the situation, and who is for real. See J. McCargo and M. Williams.

Upshaw was productive, but not a sack artist, and I'm thinking we need one.

[DraftBoy]

The only similarity between Troup & Upshaw is they both play defense. Troup had limited production against lesser competition. Upshaw was productive over a long period of time against the best competition in College ball.

I'm not even going to begin to explain what the analogy was supposed to mean, but you are not even in the same country.

[k-oneputt]

Troup was the "were smarter then you pick" when if they wanted a nt they should have taken Cody.
I forgot, Cody looked bad in his combine picture, yet he produced bigtime at Alabama and is now doing the same for the Ravens.

[better days]

Troup was very productive for a DT over a few seasons at UCF.

Troup came from a D with pretty good talent in a few spots, namely the line. Some see that as a knock, some see it as a positive. One might argue he was productive because of the DEs, another might argue the DEs were productive because of the DTs allowing the edge to have 1 on 1s all day. It goes both ways.

Upshaw comes from a stacked D, so it is sometimes hard to see who is reaping the benefits of the situation, and who is for real. See J. McCargo and M. Williams.

Upshaw was productive, but not a sack artist, and I'm thinking we need one.

Like I said UCF does not play in the SEC. Troup played against lesser competition than Upshaw did. And Upshaw was productive over a longer period of time as well.

No question the Bills need a pass rusher, but I think we all agree the Bills should not reach for one. Upshaw, a very good all around player, played well while Dareus was at Alabama & played well after Dareus left for the NFL. Playing on a defense with Dareus, Williams, Barnett, etc, I think Upshaw would continue to be productive & well worth the #10 pick.

[k-oneputt]

Ozzie must laugh at the Bills:

we took Whitner, he took Ngata
we took Troup, he took Cody
we took Maybin, he took Oher

JJJEEEZZZUUUzzzz

[better days]

Troup was the "were smarter then you pick" when if they wanted a nt they should have taken Cody.
I forgot, Cody looked bad in his combine picture, yet he produced bigtime at Alabama and is now doing the same for the Ravens.

Cody was FAT & out of shape constantly gasping for air when at Alabama. He was the same way his rookie year at Baltimore. He lost 30 lbs & got into shape before the last season & played well.

[PTI]

No he's not.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664814

Number 1 at his position, he is in every firts round of every mock I have seen except yours.

[JCBills]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664814

Number 1 at his position, he is in every firts round of every mock I have seen except yours.

As far as value goes, he isn't.

MLBs have been de-valued in recent years. Mocks might project him to whoever in the first based on need, and who knows, they might take him, but the value isn't there.

Teams will reach on players and make them 1st rounders, happens every year.

[DraftBoy]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1664814

Number 1 at his position, he is in every firts round of every mock I have seen except yours.

Sigh...ok...we shall see.

[k-oneputt]

Cody was FAT & out of shape constantly gasping for air when at Alabama. He was the same way his rookie year at Baltimore. He lost 30 lbs & got into shape before the last season & played well.

Yep and he contantly did his job, plug the middle and eat blockers for the lb's to clean up and started for the Ravens in his 2nd year.
Way more then anything Troup has given us or his small school wonders drafted with him.

[Jan Reimers]

If the first 9 picks of this draft were to go as predicted here, i.e., with Coples, the 2 best LTs, the 2 best WRs, the three best QBs et. al. gone, my prediction is that we will take either Upshaw or Ingram.

If a guy is a big, fast, athletic, aggressive pass rusher, there should be room for him to play, whether in a 43 or 34.

[justasportsfan]

Which probably won't happen and even if it doesn't Im not sure I'd change the pick or the direction. You don't reach for need see what has happened with the Troup selection.


Nix is in his 3rd year. He has to right the ship NOW or the fans will turn against him. Everyone knows we wont win without a pass rush.Nix himself said that we played against rookies and made them look good.

[JCBills]

Nix is in his 3rd year. He has to right the ship NOW or the fans will turn against him. Everyone knows we wont win without a pass rush.Nix himself said that we played against rookies and made them look good.

Yeah, this is his make or break year.

If the value isn't there, I hope they look to move back.

[DraftBoy]

Nix is in his 3rd year. He has to right the ship NOW or the fans will turn against him. Everyone knows we wont win without a pass rush.Nix himself said that we played against rookies and made them look good.

He change philosophy now and he's doomed to fail. He shouldn't care one iota about what the fans want.

[alohabillsfan]

I still cant see how Upshaw fits in a 43 system as a DE or OLB, but I know many fans are enamored with him.

I know, looking for DE with value here. If Coples is there take him, after that would perfer a trade down 1/2 dozen spots or so and grab a DE there. There is alot of DE talent that has value in the 20-35 range (Ingram, Branch, Merculis, Crick, Curry).


No desire to take Mercilus who is a one trick pony, he beat Adams twice in the first half of Ill v. Ohio State this year but Adams adjusted his stance at halftime and Mercilus couldn't adjust back. That concerns me greatly.

Mosley is another guy I want nothing to do with. Consistent under preformer, nice power and length but don't like his tech at all. He was a TE in HS and played Defense in JUCO, so he only has 2 years at the Tackle position. I think he is worth the 4th round pick.

Love Jordan White but he's a slot WR which we have an abundance of.[/QUOTE]

IDK, when you see Brad Smith at the top of the depth chart at WR I wouldnt consider it and abundance.

[DraftBoy]

I still cant see how Upshaw fits in a 43 system as a DE or OLB, but I know many fans are enamored with him.

I know, looking for DE with value here. If Coples is there take him, after that would perfer a trade down 1/2 dozen spots or so and grab a DE there. There is alot of DE talent that has value in the 20-35 range (Ingram, Branch, Merculis, Crick, Curry).


No desire to take Mercilus who is a one trick pony, he beat Adams twice in the first half of Ill v. Ohio State this year but Adams adjusted his stance at halftime and Mercilus couldn't adjust back. That concerns me greatly.

Mosley is another guy I want nothing to do with. Consistent under preformer, nice power and length but don't like his tech at all. He was a TE in HS and played Defense in JUCO, so he only has 2 years at the Tackle position. I think he is worth the 4th round pick.

Love Jordan White but he's a slot WR which we have an abundance of.

IDK, when you see Brad Smith at the top of the depth chart at WR I wouldnt consider it and abundance.[/QUOTE]

I'm assuming you're comments where in bold, formatting got screwed up somehow.

I agree 100% if Coples is there the pick takes .02 seconds to get in but after Coples the next true 43 DE may be Nick Perry. Ingram and Upshaw both give me great concern making them 43 DE's. Both are smaller guys with shorter arms, which typically you don't want. Both also have explosive first steps, though only Upshaw was consistent through the whole season while Ingram seemed to slow down.

Being a former TE though is only worth so much, he has good athletic ability but his strength and hands were not good. I didn't like that he was a good pass protector but sub par run blocker. He doesn't have that nasty streak and he doesn't finish blocks. He does offer some 2nd level blocking ability with his athletic ability.

I dont disagree that Brad Smith concerns me but we need help on the outside and I'm not sure White can offer that. We already have Nelson, Smith, Aiken, Roosevelt and two practice squad slot WR's.

[DraftBoy]

IDK, when you see Brad Smith at the top of the depth chart at WR I wouldnt consider it and abundance.

Upshaw is a complete player. He not only can get to the QB, but he would be a big help at stopping the run. I think people forget the Bills still need help with Stopping the run.

Alabama plays a hybrid defense as the Bills plan to do and Upshaw is versitle enough to play that style.

None of us have any idea what the Bills actually plan to do, so assuming we will run something similar to Alabama is a premature.

Bama also runs a base 34 set, which we won't. They also run a 4 man line with a stand up strong side end, we don't know if we'll do that. They also run a 4 man DT filled line.

Upshaw is a complete player but he is not infallible either and our scheme is way too much of a mystery right now, especially considering we have a 43 based coordinator who has never called plays for a 34 alignment. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but there is a heck of a lot of unknown right now for anybody to be assuming anything about what our scheme will possibly look like next season.

[YardRat]

Jesus Christ. Do we need an in-house seminar on how to properly quote and reply to posts?

[DraftBoy]

Jesus Christ. Do we need an in-house seminar on how to properly quote and reply to posts?

I fixed it finally, was bugging me to.

[better days]

I still cant see how Upshaw fits in a 43 system as a DE or OLB, but I know many fans are enamored with him.

I know, looking for DE with value here. If Coples is there take him, after that would perfer a trade down 1/2 dozen spots or so and grab a DE there. There is alot of DE talent that has value in the 20-35 range (Ingram, Branch, Merculis, Crick, Curry).


No desire to take Mercilus who is a one trick pony, he beat Adams twice in the first half of Ill v. Ohio State this year but Adams adjusted his stance at halftime and Mercilus couldn't adjust back. That concerns me greatly.

Mosley is another guy I want nothing to do with. Consistent under preformer, nice power and length but don't like his tech at all. He was a TE in HS and played Defense in JUCO, so he only has 2 years at the Tackle position. I think he is worth the 4th round pick.

Love Jordan White but he's a slot WR which we have an abundance of.

I think people forget the Bills still have trouble stopping the run. Yes the Bills need a pass rush, but they also need improvement in stopping the run as well.

Upshaw is a complete player. He can not only get to the QB, but he would help improve the Bills defense against the run.

Alabama plays a hybrid defense much like the Bills plan to play. Upshaw is versatile enough to play both standing up & with his hand on the ground.

[better days]

None of us have any idea what the Bills actually plan to do, so assuming we will run something similar to Alabama is a premature.

Bama also runs a base 34 set, which we won't. They also run a 4 man line with a stand up strong side end, we don't know if we'll do that. They also run a 4 man DT filled line.

Upshaw is a complete player but he is not infallible either and our scheme is way too much of a mystery right now, especially considering we have a 43 based coordinator who has never called plays for a 34 alignment. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but there is a heck of a lot of unknown right now for anybody to be assuming anything about what our scheme will possibly look like next season.

Well, we have some idea what the Bills plan to do. They have said they will continue to play both 4-3 & 3-4 depending on the teams & situations they face.

I don't know what you mean about Upshaw not being infallible. Who is infallible in this draft on the front 7 of defense? Upshaw may not have the measurables you want, but he is a versatile player that has been productive over a period of time against GOOD competition.

[k-oneputt]

Jesus Christ. Do we need an in-house seminar on how to properly quote and reply to posts?

LOL.
Best post of the day so far.:biggrin:

[CleveSteve]

Why is it such a given than Coples would be the pick if he's there? Mayock on NFLN yesterday said something along the lines of "I put on the senior tape and I couldn't find anything to call him a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick." He mentioned his junior tape is better, but i don't understand the fascination with this guy. Is it just because he's huge and cut? Because his production ain't there.

[DraftBoy]

Why is it such a given than Coples would be the pick if he's there? Mayock on NFLN yesterday said something along the lines of "I put on the senior tape and I couldn't find anything to call him a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick." He mentioned his junior tape is better, but i don't understand the fascination with this guy. Is it just because he's huge and cut? Because his production ain't there.

He's out produced every DE over their career except Curry. The idea that the production isn't there is false.

[DraftBoy]

Well, we have some idea what the Bills plan to do. They have said they will continue to play both 4-3 & 3-4 depending on the teams & situations they face.

I don't know what you mean about Upshaw not being infallible. Who is infallible in this draft on the front 7 of defense? Upshaw may not have the measurables you want, but he is a versatile player that has been productive over a period of time against GOOD competition.

You can bold every word its not going to change the fact that you or I have zero idea what they are going to do. We know what they say but how many times have coaches or GM's said one thing with every intention of not doing it? Making assumptions without seeing anything is a risky proposition.

Infallible means to be unfailing in operation or excecution. While his size is a concern that's not the only concern. A larger concern is his inability to get off blocks. Nearly all his impact plays are based off of speed, but when he was blocked he was rarely able to get off that block. If we play at RDE or Stronside LB he has to be able to do that by nature of the scheme. It's by far the weakest part of his game.

Size like numbers aren't everything, there are flaws to his game that are plain to see. Just like there are with every prospect.

[CleveSteve]

He's out produced every DE over their career except Curry. The idea that the production isn't there is false.

OK, so 2010, which basically made him a top 15 pick, he had 10 sacks (including 3 in one game against Rutgers.) Then, in 2011, he had 7.5 sacks (4 of which came against James Madison and Duke.) So over the course of two years, he had 17.5 sacks, which is kind of a lot... except Whitney Mercilus had 17 sacks this season alone.


Opponent Score Tackles Sacks
Arkansas State W*33-15 3 1
South Dakota St W*56-3 1 0
Arizona State W*17-14 5 2
Western Mich. W*23-20 4 1
Northwestern W*38-35 6 1.5
@Indiana W*41-20 5 3
Ohio State L*17-7 9 1.5
@Purdue L*21-14 5 0
@Penn State L*10-7 6 1.5
Michigan L*31-14 3 1
Wisconsin L*28-17 2 1
@Minnesota L*27-7 3 1
@UCLA W*20-14 5 1.5


Look at that consistency. Only two games with zero sacks, and one of those two games was a creampuff game. He was able to generate sacks when they were winning and when they were losing. That is real production IMO. Add to that fact that he led the nation in forced fumbles, well, that's one trick I'd like my ponies to have.

[DraftBoy]

OK, so 2010, which basically made him a top 15 pick, he had 10 sacks (including 3 in one game against Rutgers.) Then, in 2011, he had 7.5 sacks (4 of which came against James Madison and Duke.) So over the course of two years, he had 17.5 sacks, which is kind of a lot... except Whitney Mercilus had 17 sacks this season alone.


Opponent Score Tackles Sacks
Arkansas State W*33-15 3 1
South Dakota St W*56-3 1 0
Arizona State W*17-14 5 2
Western Mich. W*23-20 4 1
Northwestern W*38-35 6 1.5
@Indiana W*41-20 5 3
Ohio State L*17-7 9 1.5
@Purdue L*21-14 5 0
@Penn State L*10-7 6 1.5
Michigan L*31-14 3 1
Wisconsin L*28-17 2 1
@Minnesota L*27-7 3 1
@UCLA W*20-14 5 1.5


Look at that consistency. Only two games with zero sacks, and one of those two games was a creampuff game. He was able to generate sacks when they were winning and when they were losing. That is real production IMO. Add to that fact that he led the nation in forced fumbles, well, that's one trick I'd like my ponies to have.

Mercilus is a fine prospect but he's not a first rounder. If you want to take him in the 2nd it would be a solid pick. He also got stone walled by Mike Adams when Adams adjusted his stance after getting beat twice. Mercilus failure to adjust back is a huge concern.

[better days]

You can bold every word its not going to change the fact that you or I have zero idea what they are going to do. We know what they say but how many times have coaches or GM's said one thing with every intention of not doing it? Making assumptions without seeing anything is a risky proposition.

Infallible means to be unfailing in operation or excecution. While his size is a concern that's not the only concern. A larger concern is his inability to get off blocks. Nearly all his impact plays are based off of speed, but when he was blocked he was rarely able to get off that block. If we play at RDE or Stronside LB he has to be able to do that by nature of the scheme. It's by far the weakest part of his game.

Size like numbers aren't everything, there are flaws to his game that are plain to see. Just like there are with every prospect.

Well, I have read scouting reports on Upshaw that said despite his short arms, he gets off blocks well. I also read that he has a good bull rush.

So what DE/LB in this draft is infalable?

[CleveSteve]

Also, over the last two years, Upshaw has one half sack less than Coples. Save a half-sack against Kent State, every one of those came against SEC teams that were ranked in the top 25 at some point in that season. In 2010, he had three sacks against eventual National Champion Auburn in a loss.

Melvin Ingram had 18.5 sacks over the last two years and even had two INTs this year.

Nick Perry had 9.5 sacks this year.

Probably the guy whose production Coples matches up with best is Andre Branch. He had six sacks in 2010 and 10.5 in 2011. He padded his stats a little against nobodies as well. Branch is 6'5", 260#, so his size is closer to Coples. I've seen people saying he was anywhere from #20 to 3rd rounder. But Coples is a no-brainer at #10? I don't get it.

[DraftBoy]

Well, I have read scouting reports on Upshaw that said despite his short arms, he gets off blocks well. I also read that he has a good bull rush.

So what DE/LB in this draft is infalable?

I'm not really sure how you want me to respond to that. Ok so you read somewhere that Upshaw can get off blocks well, do you want me to say they are worng or something?

People are going to disagree, its kind of the nature of the job.

I'm not quite sure what "infalable" is, but no prospect is infallible ever, that's the point.

It's easy to gloss over a prospects short comings when he is "your guy". That's how fans for the most part view the draft. There is player A or B, they choose one and their choice is awesome while the other choices suck. They'll either be happy or displeased for most of May based on that, and then in June or July not really care anymore and root for the entire team. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's just a difference in philosophy. If you look at how the Bills fans for the most part have choosen the players they like they have been far more correct than the Bills FO has been.

[DraftBoy]

Also, over the last two years, Upshaw has one half sack less than Coples. Save a half-sack against Kent State, every one of those came against SEC teams that were ranked in the top 25 at some point in that season. In 2010, he had three sacks against eventual National Champion Auburn in a loss.

Melvin Ingram had 18.5 sacks over the last two years and even had two INTs this year.

Nick Perry had 9.5 sacks this year.

Probably the guy whose production Coples matches up with best is Andre Branch. He had six sacks in 2010 and 10.5 in 2011. He padded his stats a little against nobodies as well. Branch is 6'5", 260#, so his size is closer to Coples. I've seen people saying he was anywhere from #20 to 3rd rounder. But Coples is a no-brainer at #10? I don't get it.

You gotta get out of the numbers. Statistics are such a small part of overall picture that when you get stuck in them you get stuck in why Mercilus is a 2nd Rounder or why Coples is considered a top 10 pick.

Coples senior tape was down, nobody would disagree but there are two factors to consider. One he made the switch from WDE to SDE, and two Butch Davis was canned right before the season. Now while I dont want to appear to make excuses for Coples, I spoke with two people connected to UNC (one is a former player there) and they both said the same thing. The Davis firing rocked those kids, he was like a 2nd father to them.

Now does that mean we should throw away all of 2011? Not at all. Also consider this from a statistical view point. After 10/15 here are the DE numbers through the final seven games;
Coples-5 Sacks, 7 TFL
Curry-5 Sacks, 4 TFL
Upshaw-8 Sacks, 1.5 TFL
Mercilus-7.5 Sacks, 3.5 TFL
Ingram-4.5 Sacks, 3 TFL

TFL has been adjusted since NCAA stas double count sacks

[justasportsfan]

He change philosophy now and he's doomed to fail. He shouldn't care one iota about what the fans want.


I think he will care once we start running him out of town.

[DraftBoy]

I think he will care once we start running him out of town.
Why? The fans dont make that decision and for good reason.

[justasportsfan]

Why? The fans dont make that decision and for good reason.
just saying that Nix has to worry about producing now that he's in his 3rd year after all his talk about "it takes 3 years blah,blahblah."

[better days]

I'm not really sure how you want me to respond to that. Ok so you read somewhere that Upshaw can get off blocks well, do you want me to say they are worng or something?

People are going to disagree, its kind of the nature of the job.

I'm not quite sure what "infalable" is, but no prospect is infallible ever, that's the point.

It's easy to gloss over a prospects short comings when he is "your guy". That's how fans for the most part view the draft. There is player A or B, they choose one and their choice is awesome while the other choices suck. They'll either be happy or displeased for most of May based on that, and then in June or July not really care anymore and root for the entire team. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's just a difference in philosophy. If you look at how the Bills fans for the most part have choosen the players they like they have been far more correct than the Bills FO has been.

Well, you said Upshaw was not infailable. I just was trying to make the point, noboby is infailable. I agree, people like who they like,but in the end will root for who is drafted. I also think the consensus of this board could do a better job drafting than the Bills have done in the past.

[CleveSteve]

OK, I guess if your point is that he is better at setting the edge and containing the run than the more pass-rush specialists then I can get on board with that, but I can't remember someone being drafted in the top 10 to be a run-stopping 4-3 DE. That's what Courtney Brown turned out to be until he shredded his chest, but that wasn't what they envisioned him as.

[k-oneputt]

Upshaw makes plays. He's a football player. Turn the tape on. His measurables may not shine the best during the combine but this kid will be a solid player and have a good career.
The question with him is where would he fit in a 4-3 defense. I don't like him as much in a 4-3 compared to a 3-4 defense. Much better fit there.
A team like the Jets, Steeelers, Ravens, Packers would all be good fits for him and his style of play.
If the Bills do take him I wouldn't be upset about it because he is a player who has produced at the highest level and I expect he will in the NFL also.

[DraftBoy]

Upshaw makes plays. He's a football player. Turn the tape on. His measurables may not shine the best during the combine but this kid will be a solid player and have a good career.
The question with him is where would he fit in a 4-3 defense. I don't like him as much in a 4-3 compared to a 3-4 defense. Much better fit there.
A team like the Jets, Steeelers, Ravens, Packers would all be good fits for him and his style of play.
If the Bills do take him I wouldn't be upset about it because he is a player who has produced at the highest level and I expect he will in the NFL also.

Perfectly stated.

[DraftBoy]

OK, I guess if your point is that he is better at setting the edge and containing the run than the more pass-rush specialists then I can get on board with that, but I can't remember someone being drafted in the top 10 to be a run-stopping 4-3 DE. That's what Courtney Brown turned out to be until he shredded his chest, but that wasn't what they envisioned him as.

We need a three down DE, not just a 2 or 1 down guy. Coples has that.

[JCBills]

We need a three down DE, not just a 2 or 1 down guy. Coples has that.

With their size, I can see Cam Johnson and Vinny Curry developing into solid 3 down players as well.

[DraftBoy]

With their size, I can see Cam Johnson and Vinny Curry developing into solid 3 down players as well.

Probably but I see them more as a 2nd Round option than at #10.

[JCBills]

Probably but I see them more as a 2nd Round option than at #10.

Oh clearly lol, I have Curry as late 1st to early/mid 2nd. Cam could be there early 3rd.

[DraftBoy]

just saying that Nix has to worry about producing now that he's in his 3rd year after all his talk about "it takes 3 years blah,blahblah."

Agreed 100%, just saying that he shouldn't care one iota about what fans think. When personell people start listening to their fans they tend to make stupid decisions.

[CleveSteve]

Wasn't sure the best place to post this... didn't think it deserved it's own thread. Here's Charlie Casserly's latest Mock:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts/charley-casserly/85000?module=HP11_hot_topics


1 Colts Luck QB
2 Skins RGIII QB
3 Vikes Kalil OT
4 Browns Blackmon WR
5 Bucs Claiborne CB
6 Rams Reiff OT
7 Jags Coples DE
8 Panther Still DT
9 Dolphin Martin OT
10 Bills Mercilus DE
11 Chiefs Richardson RB
12 Seahawk Kirkpatrick CB
13 Cards Adams OT
14 Cowboys DeCastro OG
15 Eagles Keuchley MLB
16 Jets Upshaw OLB
17 Bengals Jenkins CB
18 Charger Ingram OLB
19 Bears Floyd WR
20 Titans Brockers DT
21 Bengals Miller RB
22 Browns Tannehill QB
23 Lions Dennard CB
24 Steeler Glenn OT
25 Donks Worthy DT
26 Texans Wright WR
27 Pats Barron SS
28 Packers Cox DT
29 Ravens Konz OC
30 49ers Jeffery WR
31 Pats Hightower ILB
32 Giants Brown OLB


I thought he had some headscratchers in here, but he's also the only guy who thought Mario Williams was the right pick at #1 in 2006, and he was clearly right about that.