number crunching [Archive] - BillsZone.com

trapezeus

03-22-2012, 02:32 PM

so i crunched some numbers. if the sabres go 5-2-1 for this stretch of 8 games, they need some unusual luck amongst ottawa, wash, and winn. they'll need ott and wash to lose some games they have no business losing.

Winnipeg, if they win as expected and go 7-2, they'll still miss the playoffs. so in their head to head against washington, if they lose or tie, that's pretty much it for them. it will be hard.

washington to get in only has to go 5-3-1 and have the luxury of losing to us and two decent teams. they'll get in ahead of us on tie breaker.

Ottawa will have the same number of points as wash and still be a point a head of us if they go 4-4 or 3-3-2 to stay ahead of the sabres.

the sabres can only lose to pitts and boston. and they must win the rest. crazy stuff. it's doable, but it ain't pretty. those two lost points to florida and colorado would have come in huge right now.

Skooby

03-22-2012, 02:47 PM

Ottawa should lose 2 of it's next 3, that'll change the momentum. We've missed points in 2 games out of like 16.

PTI

03-22-2012, 02:47 PM

Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.

trapezeus

03-22-2012, 03:39 PM

sabres capitals game is a playoff game for the sabres. tying or losing that game leaves them in pretty dire straits. they'll need a lot more help.

Washington can lose that game and still kind of coast along. Washington is in the driver seat.

as for ottawa, i think it's a lot to ask for them to lose to the habs. if that happens, it starts putting the sabrse on the inside track of simply winning and being ahead.

trapezeus

03-22-2012, 03:43 PM

also, those two losses for the sabres i have as philly and boston. last games of the season. if they lose 1 before then, then they really have to just win out from there, but the damage may be done.

Crisis

03-22-2012, 03:50 PM

if washington loses tonight we pretty much control our own destiny.

chernobylwraiths

03-22-2012, 03:58 PM

They have gone 16 - 5 - 5 since losing to the Blues on January 21st with 12 of those games requiring extra time to get the winner. All points from here on out are important, but I just don't see them making it. We need Washington to really dump it from here on out and I just don't see that happening. Especially since the Sabres will probably need to take at least 3 points (IMO) from the three games against Pittsburgh, Boston and Philadelphia.

Dozerdog

03-22-2012, 04:16 PM

According to this-

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Buffalo has a 24% of making it
Washington 75%
Winnipeg- 9%
Carolina >2%

tatersalad

03-22-2012, 05:26 PM

easy solution dont lose another game111

2slowtogofast

03-22-2012, 06:46 PM

Lets hope we get some help on the out of town score board tonight. Anyways at the very least we can hope for is 8 games of exciting hockey and the past month has been a great turnaround for this season. That being said I really want to make the post season

Fitzpatrick'sbeard

03-22-2012, 09:09 PM

NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/blog.htm?id=304

Skooby

03-22-2012, 10:41 PM

OpIv37

03-22-2012, 11:04 PM

Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.

And I'll be there, which means we're ****ed. Sorry guys.

OpIv37

03-22-2012, 11:05 PM

If you check the last 10 games played & remaining schedule, I'd bet on the Sabres to have a few extra wins. Another factor is the Pittsburgh / Boston / Philly positioning will probably be settled then, so odds are they sit their main guys & heal them up.

You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.

Skooby

03-22-2012, 11:07 PM

You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.

Healthy scratches are completely normal & accepted.

trapezeus

03-23-2012, 08:51 AM

no en masse though. you might get a couple players here and there and they really need to rest. otherwise they are going to skate.

Dozerdog

03-23-2012, 11:41 AM

Washington getting a point yesterday knocked us back going from 24% to 23% chance of making the playoffs

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Buffalo.html

SabreEleven

03-23-2012, 11:42 AM

Washington getting a point yesterday knocked us back going from 24% to 23% chance of making the playoffs

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Buffalo.html

I'll take that because just a month ago we were at less than 2% chance.

Dozerdog

03-23-2012, 11:49 AM

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain (show) (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/h/WhatIfNHL.html)
<table cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="11">
</td><td class="mf white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="m white">100</td><td class="ml white">100</td><td colspan="2">
</td></tr><tr class="head"><td class="pl5 al" colspan="6">If finish:</td><td class="pr5 ar" colspan="3">Chance in</td><td colspan="2">
</td><td colspan="15" class="p2 ac ll lb">Chance team will finish the regular season at position</td><td colspan="2" class="ll">
</td></tr><tr class="head"><td class="pl5 ac" colspan="2">TP</td><td class="ac pl13">W</td><td class="ac pl2 pr2">
</td><td class="ac pl10">L</td><td class="ac pl2 pr2">-</td><td class="ac pr5">OT</td><td colspan="2" class="pr5 ar">playoffs</td><td colspan="2" class="pl5 pr5 ac">Cup</td><td class="ar ll mf">1</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">6</td><td class="ar m">7</td><td class="ar mbl">8</td><td class="ar llr mal">9</td><td class="ar m">10</td><td class="ar m">11</td><td class="ar m">12</td><td class="ar m">13</td><td class="ar m">14</td><td class="ar ml">15</td><td colspan="2" class="pl5 ac pr5 ll">Count</td></tr><tr class="h5"><td colspan="9" class="">
</td><td colspan="2" class="">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td colspan="2" class="ll">
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">96</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">8</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">100.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">%</td><td class="ar pl10">6.3</td><td class="pr5">%</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">20</td><td class="ar m">12</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">46</td><td class="ar mbl">6</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">3,523,798</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">95</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">7</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">99.9 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">6.3</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">7</td><td class="ar m">9</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">9</td><td class="ar m">58</td><td class="ar mbl">17</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">6,729,615</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">94</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">7</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">99.2 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">6.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">55</td><td class="ar mbl">33</td><td class="ar llr mal">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">20,881,034</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">6</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">98.8 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">6.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">54</td><td class="ar mbl">34</td><td class="ar llr mal">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">5,745,977</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">93</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">6</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">95.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">5.9</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">41</td><td class="ar mbl">50</td><td class="ar llr mal">5</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">35,623,968</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">5</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ar pl10">93.8 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">5.9</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">40</td><td class="ar mbl">51</td><td class="ar llr mal">6</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">2,799,748</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">92</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">6</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">86.5 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">5.4</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">25</td><td class="ar mbl">61</td><td class="ar llr mal">13</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">55,240,307</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">5</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">84.2 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">5.3</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">23</td><td class="ar mbl">60</td><td class="ar llr mal">16</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">26,053,756</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">4</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">4</td><td class="ar pl10">82.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">5.1</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">22</td><td class="ar mbl">59</td><td class="ar llr mal">18</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">853,091</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">91</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">5</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">67.2 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">4.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">11</td><td class="ar mbl">56</td><td class="ar llr mal">32</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">80,807,712</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">4</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ar pl10">63.9 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">4.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">10</td><td class="ar mbl">54</td><td class="ar llr mal">35</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">10,587,915</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">5</td><td class="ar pl10">61.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">3.8</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">10</td><td class="ar mbl">51</td><td class="ar llr mal">37</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">166,575</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">90</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">5</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">47.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">2.9</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar mbl">43</td><td class="ar llr mal">48</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">83,558,039</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">4</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">43.8 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">2.7</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar mbl">40</td><td class="ar llr mal">51</td><td class="ar m">6</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">49,266,680</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">4</td><td class="ar pl10">40.8 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">2.5</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar mbl">38</td><td class="ar llr mal">53</td><td class="ar m">6</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">2,580,598</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">6</td><td class="ar pl10">38.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">2.4</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar mbl">35</td><td class="ar llr mal">55</td><td class="ar m">7</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">20,300</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">89</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">4</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">23.7 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">1.5</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar mbl">23</td><td class="ar llr mal">60</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">101,850,690</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ar pl10">21.3 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">1.3</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar mbl">21</td><td class="ar llr mal">62</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">16,009,416</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">5</td><td class="ar pl10">19.5 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">1.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar mbl">19</td><td class="ar llr mal">63</td><td class="ar m">17</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">377,436</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">7</td><td class="ar pl10">16.7 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">1.7</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar mbl">16</td><td class="ar llr mal">66</td><td class="ar m">17</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">1,409</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">88</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">4</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">4</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">10.5 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.7</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">10</td><td class="ar llr mal">56</td><td class="ar m">31</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">78,968,617</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">9.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.6</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">9</td><td class="ar llr mal">56</td><td class="ar m">32</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">49,663,452</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">4</td><td class="ar pl10">7.9 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.5</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">8</td><td class="ar llr mal">56</td><td class="ar m">33</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">2,925,455</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">6</td><td class="ar pl10">6.6 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.4</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">7</td><td class="ar llr mal">56</td><td class="ar m">34</td><td class="ar m">3</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">30,618</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">0</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">8</td><td class="ar pl10">2.2 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">2</td><td class="ar llr mal">43</td><td class="ar m">50</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">46</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">87</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">4</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">2.5 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">3</td><td class="ar llr mal">39</td><td class="ar m">47</td><td class="ar m">11</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">76,990,225</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ar pl10">2.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.1</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">2</td><td class="ar llr mal">38</td><td class="ar m">48</td><td class="ar m">12</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">12,108,425</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">5</td><td class="ar pl10">1.6 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.1</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">2</td><td class="ar llr mal">37</td><td class="ar m">48</td><td class="ar m">12</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">285,735</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">1</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">7</td><td class="ar pl10">1.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.2</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">1</td><td class="ar llr mal">31</td><td class="ar m">54</td><td class="ar m">12</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">1,097</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">86</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">3</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">5</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">0.5 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">1</td><td class="ar llr mal">20</td><td class="ar m">50</td><td class="ar m">25</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">47,760,488</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">4</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">0.4 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">19</td><td class="ar m">50</td><td class="ar m">27</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">28,172,780</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">4</td><td class="ar pl10">0.3 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">18</td><td class="ar m">49</td><td class="ar m">28</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">1,476,693</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">2</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">6</td><td class="ar pl10">0.2 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">17</td><td class="ar m">48</td><td class="ar m">29</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">11,561</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">85</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">5</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">6</td><td class="ar m">36</td><td class="ar m">41</td><td class="ar m">15</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">34,939,903</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">4</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">6</td><td class="ar m">34</td><td class="ar m">42</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">4,581,957</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">3</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">5</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">5</td><td class="ar m">32</td><td class="ar m">42</td><td class="ar m">18</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">71,562</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">84</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">2</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">6</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">1</td><td class="ar m">18</td><td class="ar m">42</td><td class="ar m">31</td><td class="ar m">7</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">18,061,876</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">5</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">1</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">40</td><td class="ar m">33</td><td class="ar m">9</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">8,521,415</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">4</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">4</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">1</td><td class="ar m">14</td><td class="ar m">39</td><td class="ar m">35</td><td class="ar m">11</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">279,121</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">83</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">6</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ar pl10">0.0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">0</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar m">25</td><td class="ar m">42</td><td class="ar m">24</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">8,811,040</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">5</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">3</td><td class="ac pl10">No (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">4</td><td class="ar m">22</td><td class="ar m">42</td><td class="ar m">27</td><td class="ar m">5</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">692,533</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">82</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">1</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">7</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ac pl10">No (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">10</td><td class="ar m">36</td><td class="ar m">40</td><td class="ar m">13</td><td class="ar ml">0</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">3,898,706</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td>
</td><td>
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">6</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">2</td><td class="ac pl10">No (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">1</td><td class="ar m">8</td><td class="ar m">32</td><td class="ar m">43</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar ml">1</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">1,073,528</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="odd"><td class="pl5 ar">81</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">7</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">1</td><td class="ac pl10">No (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">2</td><td class="ar m">16</td><td class="ar m">45</td><td class="ar m">34</td><td class="ar ml">3</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">951,543</td><td>
</td></tr><tr><td class="pl5 ar">80</td><td class="al">
</td><td class="ar pl13">0</td><td colspan="2" class="ar">8</td><td class="ar">-</td><td class="al">0</td><td class="ac pl10">No (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ac pl10">No</td><td class="pr5">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">
</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">0</td><td class="ar m">6</td><td class="ar m">36</td><td class="ar m">49</td><td class="ar ml">8</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">443,581</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="h5"><td colspan="9" class="">
</td><td colspan="2" class="">
</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar mbl">
</td><td class="ar llr mal">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar ml">
</td><td colspan="2" class="ll">
</td></tr><tr><td class="ar pr5" colspan="7">Total:</td><td class="ar pl10">35.1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pr5">%</td><td class="ar pl10">2.2</td><td class="pr5">%</td><td class="ar ll mf">
</td><td class="ar m">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">
</td><td class="ar m">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">8 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar mbl">26 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar llr mal">35 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">19 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">7 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">3 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">1 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar m">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="ar ml">0 (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/)</td><td class="pl10 ar ll">889,600,021</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Dozerdog

03-23-2012, 11:52 AM

so i crunched some numbers. if the sabres go 5-2-1 for this stretch of 8 games, they need some unusual luck amongst ottawa, wash, and winn. they'll need ott and wash to lose some games they have no business losing.

If they go 5-2-1 they have a 67% of making it. 92 points seems to be the number we need to have a statistical probability of making it.

2slowtogofast

03-24-2012, 01:38 PM

Win the next two games and things will be looking good!

2slowtogofast

03-24-2012, 02:16 PM

Also does anybody know where were in the standings last year at this time? If we end up making it which run would be more of an accomplishment?

SkateZilla

03-24-2012, 03:30 PM

March 24th 2011 standings:

EASTERN DIV GP W L OT P ROW GF GA DIFF HOME AWAY S/O L10 STREAK
1 * - PHILADELPHIA ATL 72 44 19 9 97 - 232 190 +42 21-10-5 23-9-4 - 4-3-3 OT 1
2 * - WASHINGTON SE 74 43 21 10 96 - 204 175 +29 22-8-7 21-13-3 - 9-1-0 WON 2
3 * - BOSTON NE 72 40 22 10 90 - 217 171 +46 17-12-5 23-10-5 - 4-3-3 WON 1
4 PITTSBURGH ATL 73 42 23 8 92 - 217 178 +39 22-13-2 20-10-6 - 6-2-2 WON 1
5 TAMPA BAY SE 73 39 23 11 89 - 216 216 E 22-10-5 17-13-6 - 2-4-4 LOST 1
6 MONTRÉAL NE 74 40 27 7 87 - 200 184 +16 22-10-6 18-17-1 - 6-4-0 LOST 1
7 NY RANGERS ATL 74 40 30 4 84 - 217 177 +40 18-16-3 22-14-1 - 7-3-0 WON 5
8 BUFFALO NE 73 36 28 9 81 - 216 207 +9 16-16-4 20-12-5 - 6-3-1 WON 1
9 CAROLINA SE 73 34 29 10 78 - 206 212 -6 20-12-4 14-17-6 - 5-4-1 WON 2
10 TORONTO NE 74 33 31 10 76 - 196 220 -24 17-14-7 16-17-3 - 5-4-1 WON 2
11 ATLANTA SE 72 30 30 12 72 - 203 231 -28 16-14-7 14-16-5 - 5-4-1 LOST 1
12 NEW JERSEY ATL 73 34 35 4 72 - 155 185 -30 18-15-3 16-20-1 - 6-4-0 LOST 1
13 NY ISLANDERS ATL 74 29 33 12 70 - 208 230 -22 16-15-5 13-18-7 - 6-1-3 WON 2
14 FLORIDA SE 74 29 35 10 68 - 182 198 -16 15-15-8 14-20-2 - 3-4-3 LOST 2
15 OTTAWA NE 73 27 37 9 63 - 168 223 -55 13-19-5 14-18-4 - 6-4-0 LOST 1

Dozerdog

03-26-2012, 10:33 AM

Washington getting a point yesterday knocked us back going from 24% to 23% chance of making the playoffs

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Buffalo.html

We are now at 40% chance of making it! Nearly double the odds since last week!

Skooby

03-26-2012, 12:43 PM

We are now at 40% chance of making it! Nearly double the odds since last week!

Sweet.

SkateZilla

03-26-2012, 01:03 PM

we're screwed, barry said we'll get to 7th.

hrmm..

a Boston vs Buffalo 1st round would get huge ratings.

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 08:34 AM

March 27th Notes: Pregame
by my spreadsheet, that loss last night for Win kills their hopes. I project them with 90 points by winning all their remaining games except vs the rangers. Even winning out will only get them to a tiebreaking situation which they would lose if everyone is at 92 together.

Ottawa Wash and Sabres all finish with 92 if we win the games we are expected to win. The sabres would need to tie 1 game and go 4-1-1 in these last 6 to get to 93 and leap frog the others.

additionally, a scenario in a florida collapse is washington leaping into 3rd, florida being in our race. This still seems highly unlikely, but something to keep an eye on.

Lastly we still must win this game tonight in regulation.

Dozerdog

03-27-2012, 08:58 AM

They had a less than 2% chance going into the game- now they have a 0.6% chance as of today

If they go 6-0-0 they still only have a 26% chance of making it

Skooby

03-27-2012, 09:04 AM

Now there is no real reason to mentioned the Jets anymore, they're not going 6-0-0 anyways.

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 09:30 AM

the unfortunate part is that if ott would have lost that game win would have still had long odds and ottawa would have definitely been catchable with a 4-2 outing.

The sabres need to be perfect from here on out. only 1 loss and it can't be tonight. I have not shaved in over a week.

SkateZilla

03-27-2012, 09:50 AM

Lets Break this down.

BUF Games Left (1 Back to Back Set)

3 vs Division, 6 vs East

2-1 vs WSH, (3-1 L, 4-2 W, 5-1 W)

2-1 vs PIT, (8-3 L, 3-2 W, 6-2 W)

2-2 vs TOR, (5-4 W, 3-2 L, 2-0 L, 3-2 W)

2-2 vs TOR, (5-4 W, 3-2 L, 2-0 L, 3-2 W)

0-3 vs PHI, (3-2 L, 5-4OTL, 7-2 L)

2-3 vs BOS, (6-2 L, 4-3SOL, 6-0W, 3-1L, 2-1SOW)

10-12 (.454 Win% vs Opponents)

WSH Games Left (a Day off Between Every game, some games 2 days off).

2 vs Division, 6 vs East

1-2 vs BUF, (3-1 W, 4-2 L, 5-1 L)

2-1 vs BOS, (5-3 W, 4-1 L, 4-3 W)

3-0 vs MON, (3-0 W, 3-0 W, 4-1 W)

3-2 vs T.B, (6-5SOW, 4-3 W, 4-3OTL, 2-1L, 3-2OTW)

3-2 vs FLA, (3-0 W, 5-4 L, 4-2 L, 4-0 W, 2-1 W)

1-2 vs NYR, (6-3 L, 4-1 W, 3-2 L

13-9 (.590 Win% vs Opponents)

Ott Games Left (1 Back to Back Set)

1 vs Division, 5 vs East

1-2 vs PHI (7-2 L, 3-2OTL, 6-4 W)

2-1 vs NYI (2-1OTL, 6-0 W, 5-2 W)

2-1 vs CAR (3-2SOW, 4-3 W, 2-1OTL

1-4 vs BOS (5-3 L, 5-2 L, 4-3 L, 5-3 L, 1-0 W)

1-2 vs N.J (5-4SOL, 3-2OTW, 1-0L)

7-10 (.411 Win% vs Opponents)

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 11:04 AM

so this is a three team race and if you say the sabres go 4-2, Washington 4-2 and ott as 2-3, they all end up with 92 points and the sabres are on the outside.

We need Washington to get lazy with the breaks they are given between games.

SkateZilla

03-27-2012, 12:18 PM

if WSH catches FLA and we keep pace, we'll have the tie breaker over FLA

Flas goes 2-4-1, wsh goes 4-2, buf goes 4-2, ott goes 2-3,

we all end up with 92,

WSH Beats FLA on RO-WINS
OTT Beats FLA on RO-WINS
BUF Beats FLA on RO-WINS

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 12:28 PM

admittedly this is a low probability occurence for florida to go 2-4-1, no? i know they aren't playing great, but that would be deadly to them. but if the sabres lose, that's their only way in is a florida collapse.

SkateZilla

03-27-2012, 12:31 PM

for FLA,

@ MON (3-0 vs Mon)
@ MIN (0-1 vs MIN)-Back To Back Game.
@ CBJ (0-0 vs CBJ)-Back To Back Game.
@ DET (0-0 vs Det)
v WPG (4-1 vs WPG)
@ WSH (2-3 vs WSH, 0-2 @ WSH)
v CAR (4-1 vs CAR, 2-0 @ Home)

MON, WIN,
MIN, LOSS,
CBJ, OTL,
DET, LOSS,
WPG, LOSS,
WSH, LOSS,
CAR, WIN

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 12:37 PM

Bluejackets are playing even less inspired than most of the season. Minnesota looks gassed. Win may still think they are playing for something. i think washington wins that game at home with the way things are.

2-4 looks like a dream scenario. simply going 3-3-1, would that kill their changes?

SkateZilla

03-27-2012, 12:44 PM

DET and WSH should handle them no problem (LOSS, LOSS)
0-2-0

Min beat FLA once already playing gassed, FLA is traveling. (LOSS)
0-3-0

CBJ enjoys playing teams on back 2 back travel nights. (L or OTL)
0-4-0

MON sucks, CAR Sucks. (WIN, WIN)
2-3-1

WPG Maybe has some hope left, or decides to blow them out. (L or OTL)
2-4-1

Skooby

03-27-2012, 12:57 PM

The FL scenario is possible with that long a road trip.

SkateZilla

03-27-2012, 12:59 PM

also there's a few Early afternoon games, which FLA really sucks at. specially on the road.

trapezeus

03-27-2012, 11:01 PM

huge win, but it's not close to being over. sabres need to go 3-1-1 to get to 93.

washington can go 4-1 and only get 92 points.
Ottawa go 2-3 and will get to 92 points.
winnipeg can go 6-0 and can only get to 90
Florida 3-3 will end up at 96.

So great game guys, but we need the new recruits who step in for erhoff and sekera to play huge. and we need to keep putting up points.

OpIv37

03-27-2012, 11:12 PM

3-1-1 doesn't get us in if the Caps go 5-0. I don't think that will happen, but with my sports curse, you never know.

Crisis

03-27-2012, 11:34 PM

hopefully the caps quit, they looked deflated

guess teams do take after a captain's personality

Skooby

03-28-2012, 03:13 AM

hopefully the caps quit, they looked deflated

guess teams do take after a captain's personality

Stoli is taking it's toll I'd bet.

Dozerdog

03-28-2012, 07:46 AM

Sabres right now are 67% chance of making the playoffs, with 45 % o that meeting the Rangers in the first round, 13% Bruins

If the Sabres finish with 90 points they have a 54% chance of making it

91 pts= 77% chance
92 pts - 89% chance
93 pts =98% chance
94 pts= 99%
95 or 96 they are in

Dozerdog

03-28-2012, 07:52 AM

Washington is 37% chance of making it their odds cut in half from last night

Florida is at 98% chance of making it

Winnipeg is 0.7 % chance- if they win out (6-0) it still only gives them a 25% chance

Tampa and Carolina have only a mathematical chance chance of making it but the odds are almost a 100,000 to 1

Dozerdog

03-28-2012, 07:56 AM

Ottawa is at 4% chance of missing the playoffs. 92 points seems to be the clinching number

Dozerdog

03-28-2012, 07:59 AM

Looking ahead- Boston vs Washington-

Bruins regulation win gives us an increase in odds from 67% to 81%
Washington getting a OT/SO bonus point decreases the Sabres odds to 66%
Washington winning puts the Sabres at 65%

trapezeus

03-29-2012, 09:40 AM

Skooby

03-29-2012, 09:56 AM

Dozerdog

03-29-2012, 11:17 AM

bruins win tonight and the sabres can't catch them....which i think we all feel is fine. If the bruins lose, they need to lose out and the sabres will need to win out to leap frog them and get to 2nd or 3rd in the eastern conference. Dozer, i'd love to know if there is a % for that likelihood. I am guessing its 0.0000000012%. "so you are saying there is a chance?"

bruins lose, and the caps have a schedule of spaced out games (though travel to florida and NY in the week). They can go 4-0 and get to 94 points. that puts the sabres in a position to have to get points out of pitts and philly.

If the Bruins go 0-6 the rest of the season they still have a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs

Regardless of how Boston finishes- here are their odds-

67% Chance they meet Ottawa (this includes Ottawa overtaking them for the division and the Sens as the 3 seed and the Bruins 7th)

13% Chance they play the Sabres (again see above)

13% Chance they play the NJ Devils if Ottawa over takes them (odds of Devils finishing 7th are 11%)

5.5% Chance they get the Caps

0.1% They get Philly

Dozerdog

03-29-2012, 11:22 AM

Buffalo's latest outcomes

Rangers in 1st round = 49%

No Playoffs = 32%

Bruins 13%

Penguins 5%

Florida= 1%

Philly 0.1%

SabreEleven

03-29-2012, 11:23 AM

We are getting Penguins on the 2nd night of a back to back...they play the Islanders in New York tonight.

OpIv37

03-29-2012, 11:54 AM

We are getting Penguins on the 2nd night of a back to back...they play the Islanders in New York tonight.

Unfortunately, they can play half-assed and still beat the Islanders.

Skooby

03-29-2012, 12:40 PM

Unfortunately, they can play half-assed and still beat the Islanders.

Half their squad.

SkateZilla

03-29-2012, 01:29 PM

Unfortunately, they can play half-assed and still beat the Islanders.

wasnt the case tuesday night...

trapezeus

03-29-2012, 02:34 PM

pitts kind of slowed down a little of late. they had that goalie run in against the isle a few nights ago. i wonder if that's going to wreak havoc on their goalie situation.

sabrse need just 1 point for me to feel great about the playoffs. i'm expecting a loss, but if they get 1-2 points, they really just put the screws on the caps.

Thanks Dozer, i thought if they went 0-6 and the sabres go 5-0, the sabres would pass them by 1 point and take the lead of the East.

Mski

03-29-2012, 04:52 PM

i think we want Bos to win tonight, they play the Caps dont they?

trapezeus

03-29-2012, 05:29 PM

^best case scenario with highest likelihood for sabres to get in, yes.

but if boston loses out and ottawa goes under .500, sabres could win2nd.

the take away is the sabres just need to keep winning and everything is in their control.

PTI

03-29-2012, 06:51 PM

Umm, Islanders are up 1-0 and have won 4 of the last 5 games they played and just beat Pittsburgh and Florida. Playing pretty good.

Stupid Bruins just blew a 5 minute major penalty and did not score!

Skooby

03-29-2012, 08:50 PM

No 3 point game, that's what I'm rooting for.

Worst outcome possible.

Electrici

03-29-2012, 08:55 PM

I coulda dealt with a 3 point game favoring the bruins

Skooby

03-30-2012, 07:09 AM

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/7753369/pittsburgh-penguins-sidney-crosby-bloodied-puck-strikes-face-returns-game

SkateZilla

03-30-2012, 08:22 AM

that much blood coming out of your nose from an impact is usually a bad sign.

SkateZilla

03-30-2012, 08:28 AM

BUF Games Left (1 Back to Back Set)

3 vs Division, 6 vs East

WIN - 3-1 vs WSH, (3-1 L, 4-2 W, 5-1 W, 5-1W)

2-1 vs PIT, (8-3 L, 3-2 W, 6-2 W)

2-2 vs TOR, (5-4 W, 3-2 L, 2-0 L, 3-2 W)

2-2 vs TOR, (5-4 W, 3-2 L, 2-0 L, 3-2 W)

0-3 vs PHI, (3-2 L, 5-4OTL, 7-2 L)

2-3 vs BOS, (6-2 L, 4-3SOL, 6-0W, 3-1L, 2-1SOW)

10-12 (.454 Win% vs Opponents)

WSH Games Left (a Day off Between Every game, some games 2 days off).

2 vs Division, 6 vs East

LOSS - 1-3 vs BUF, (3-1 W, 4-2 L, 5-1 L, 5-1 L)

WIN - 3-1 vs BOS, (5-3 W, 4-1 L, 4-3 W, 3-2SOW)

3-0 vs MON, (3-0 W, 3-0 W, 4-1 W)

3-2 vs T.B, (6-5SOW, 4-3 W, 4-3OTL, 2-1L, 3-2OTW)

3-2 vs FLA, (3-0 W, 5-4 L, 4-2 L, 4-0 W, 2-1 W)

1-2 vs NYR, (6-3 L, 4-1 W, 3-2 L

13-9 (.590 Win% vs Opponents)

Ott Games Left (1 Back to Back Set)

1 vs Division, 5 vs East

1-2 vs PHI (7-2 L, 3-2OTL, 6-4 W)

2-1 vs NYI (2-1OTL, 6-0 W, 5-2 W)

2-1 vs CAR (3-2SOW, 4-3 W, 2-1OTL

1-4 vs BOS (5-3 L, 5-2 L, 4-3 L, 5-3 L, 1-0 W)

1-2 vs N.J (5-4SOL, 3-2OTW, 1-0L)

7-10 (.411 Win% vs Opponents)

FLA Games Left

@ MON (3-0 vs Mon)
@ MIN (0-1 vs MIN)-Back To Back Game.
@ CBJ (0-0 vs CBJ)-Back To Back Game.
@ DET (0-0 vs Det)
v WPG (4-1 vs WPG)
@ WSH (2-3 vs WSH, 0-2 @ WSH)
v CAR (4-1 vs CAR, 2-0 @ Home)

MON, WIN, Check
MIN, LOSS, Check OTL
CBJ, OTL,
DET, LOSS,
WPG, LOSS,
WSH, LOSS,
CAR, WIN

trapezeus

03-30-2012, 08:48 AM

ottawa might be the team to catch. they could conceivably go 1-4 in the last 5.

washington has time off between games, but they are traveling. and let's face it, they won last night, but they blew a two goal lead. they needed to come out a lot more desperate than that and in the first period there was a stretch before the boarding penalty that they took 2 shots. I still think they are a mental case awaiting to meltdown.

SkateZilla

03-30-2012, 08:55 AM

my local AHL team clinched like 2 weeks ago, and have won 21 straight games. (new HOCKEY record.)

So why does T.B Suck again?

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/03/winning-hard-unsinkable-admirals-sure-make-it-look-simple

Skooby

03-30-2012, 09:41 AM