number crunching

[trapezeus]

so i crunched some numbers. if the sabres go 5-2-1 for this stretch of 8 games, they need some unusual luck amongst ottawa, wash, and winn. they'll need ott and wash to lose some games they have no business losing.

Winnipeg, if they win as expected and go 7-2, they'll still miss the playoffs. so in their head to head against washington, if they lose or tie, that's pretty much it for them. it will be hard.

washington to get in only has to go 5-3-1 and have the luxury of losing to us and two decent teams. they'll get in ahead of us on tie breaker.

Ottawa will have the same number of points as wash and still be a point a head of us if they go 4-4 or 3-3-2 to stay ahead of the sabres.

the sabres can only lose to pitts and boston. and they must win the rest. crazy stuff. it's doable, but it ain't pretty. those two lost points to florida and colorado would have come in huge right now.

[Skooby]

Re: number crunching

Ottawa should lose 2 of it's next 3, that'll change the momentum. We've missed points in 2 games out of like 16.

[PTI]

Re: number crunching

Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.

[trapezeus]

Re: number crunching

sabres capitals game is a playoff game for the sabres. tying or losing that game leaves them in pretty dire straits. they'll need a lot more help.

Washington can lose that game and still kind of coast along. Washington is in the driver seat.

as for ottawa, i think it's a lot to ask for them to lose to the habs. if that happens, it starts putting the sabrse on the inside track of simply winning and being ahead.

[trapezeus]

Re: number crunching

also, those two losses for the sabres i have as philly and boston. last games of the season. if they lose 1 before then, then they really have to just win out from there, but the damage may be done.

[Crisis]

Re: number crunching

if washington loses tonight we pretty much control our own destiny.

[chernobylwraiths]

Re: number crunching

They have gone 16 - 5 - 5 since losing to the Blues on January 21st with 12 of those games requiring extra time to get the winner. All points from here on out are important, but I just don't see them making it. We need Washington to really dump it from here on out and I just don't see that happening. Especially since the Sabres will probably need to take at least 3 points (IMO) from the three games against Pittsburgh, Boston and Philadelphia.

[Dozerdog]

Re: number crunching

According to this-

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Buffalo has a 24% of making it
Washington 75%
Winnipeg- 9%
Carolina >2%

[tatersalad]

Re: number crunching

easy solution dont lose another game111

[2slowtogofast]

Re: number crunching

Lets hope we get some help on the out of town score board tonight. Anyways at the very least we can hope for is 8 games of exciting hockey and the past month has been a great turnaround for this season. That being said I really want to make the post season

[Fitzpatrick'sbeard]

Re: number crunching

NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/blog.htm?id=304

[Skooby]

Re: number crunching

NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/blog.htm?id=304

If you check the last 10 games played & remaining schedule, I'd bet on the Sabres to have a few extra wins. Another factor is the Pittsburgh / Boston / Philly positioning will probably be settled then, so odds are they sit their main guys & heal them up.

[OpIv37]

Re: number crunching

Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.

And I'll be there, which means we're ****ed. Sorry guys.

[OpIv37]

Re: number crunching

If you check the last 10 games played & remaining schedule, I'd bet on the Sabres to have a few extra wins. Another factor is the Pittsburgh / Boston / Philly positioning will probably be settled then, so odds are they sit their main guys & heal them up.

You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.

[Skooby]

Re: number crunching

You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.

Healthy scratches are completely normal & accepted.