number crunching

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  • trapezeus
    Legendary Zoner
    • Oct 2004
    • 19525

    number crunching

    so i crunched some numbers. if the sabres go 5-2-1 for this stretch of 8 games, they need some unusual luck amongst ottawa, wash, and winn. they'll need ott and wash to lose some games they have no business losing.

    Winnipeg, if they win as expected and go 7-2, they'll still miss the playoffs. so in their head to head against washington, if they lose or tie, that's pretty much it for them. it will be hard.

    washington to get in only has to go 5-3-1 and have the luxury of losing to us and two decent teams. they'll get in ahead of us on tie breaker.

    Ottawa will have the same number of points as wash and still be a point a head of us if they go 4-4 or 3-3-2 to stay ahead of the sabres.

    the sabres can only lose to pitts and boston. and they must win the rest. crazy stuff. it's doable, but it ain't pretty. those two lost points to florida and colorado would have come in huge right now.
  • MitchMurrayDowntown
    Skoobasaurus-Rex
    • Oct 2011
    • 22284

    #2
    Re: number crunching

    Ottawa should lose 2 of it's next 3, that'll change the momentum. We've missed points in 2 games out of like 16.

    Comment

    • PTI
      Banned
      • Jan 2011
      • 5316

      #3
      Re: number crunching

      Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.

      Comment

      • trapezeus
        Legendary Zoner
        • Oct 2004
        • 19525

        #4
        Re: number crunching

        sabres capitals game is a playoff game for the sabres. tying or losing that game leaves them in pretty dire straits. they'll need a lot more help.

        Washington can lose that game and still kind of coast along. Washington is in the driver seat.

        as for ottawa, i think it's a lot to ask for them to lose to the habs. if that happens, it starts putting the sabrse on the inside track of simply winning and being ahead.

        Comment

        • trapezeus
          Legendary Zoner
          • Oct 2004
          • 19525

          #5
          Re: number crunching

          also, those two losses for the sabres i have as philly and boston. last games of the season. if they lose 1 before then, then they really have to just win out from there, but the damage may be done.

          Comment

          • Crisis
            Registered User
            • Aug 2004
            • 12738

            #6
            Re: number crunching

            if washington loses tonight we pretty much control our own destiny.
            Originally posted by LOSman WINS
            Vanek is Austrian not European
            Originally posted by Prov401
            Pacquiao isn't asian. He's from the philippines
            Originally posted by better days
            I will not be surprised if Tebow has more success than Peyton in the NFL.

            Comment

            • chernobylwraiths
              Registered User
              • Jan 2003
              • 41838

              #7
              Re: number crunching

              They have gone 16 - 5 - 5 since losing to the Blues on January 21st with 12 of those games requiring extra time to get the winner. All points from here on out are important, but I just don't see them making it. We need Washington to really dump it from here on out and I just don't see that happening. Especially since the Sabres will probably need to take at least 3 points (IMO) from the three games against Pittsburgh, Boston and Philadelphia.

              Comment

              • Dozerdog
                In a jar, on a shelf, next to the unopened Miracle Whip.

                Administrator Emeritus
                • Jul 2002
                • 42586

                #8
                Re: number crunching

                According to this-



                Buffalo has a 24% of making it
                Washington 75%
                Winnipeg- 9%
                Carolina >2%
                Last edited by Dozerdog; 03-22-2012, 04:17 PM.

                Comment

                • tatersalad
                  Registered User
                  • Apr 2008
                  • 498

                  #9
                  Re: number crunching

                  easy solution dont lose another game111

                  Comment

                  • 2slowtogofast
                    Registered User
                    • Sep 2007
                    • 361

                    #10
                    Re: number crunching

                    Lets hope we get some help on the out of town score board tonight. Anyways at the very least we can hope for is 8 games of exciting hockey and the past month has been a great turnaround for this season. That being said I really want to make the post season

                    Comment

                    • Fitzpatrick'sbeard
                      Veteran Zoner
                      • Aug 2011
                      • 436

                      #11
                      Re: number crunching

                      NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

                      In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.


                      NHL Analyst Craig Button dissects the Stanley Cup Playoff picture and provides additional commentary on teams down the stretch.

                      Comment

                      • MitchMurrayDowntown
                        Skoobasaurus-Rex
                        • Oct 2011
                        • 22284

                        #12
                        Re: number crunching

                        Originally posted by Fitzpatrick'sbeard
                        NHL Network's Craig Button has been tracking playoff positioning -- using a variety of statistical categories -- for several years now. His formula, while not a true probability exercise, has proven to be very effective at predicting the cutoff number to secure a Stanley Cup Playoffs berth.

                        In its simplest terms, Button's formula uses a team's current winning percentage, factoring in games remaining, to arrive at the number of wins -- and points -- each team will finish the season with. From that exercise, the formula can extrapolate the magic number for qualification and which teams currently in the race will reach that number. This equation will also determine tiebreakers should they become necessary.


                        http://www.nhl.com/ice/blog.htm?id=304
                        If you check the last 10 games played & remaining schedule, I'd bet on the Sabres to have a few extra wins. Another factor is the Pittsburgh / Boston / Philly positioning will probably be settled then, so odds are they sit their main guys & heal them up.
                        Last edited by Skooby; 03-22-2012, 10:44 PM.

                        Comment

                        • OpIv37
                          Acid Douching Asswipe
                          • Sep 2002
                          • 101305

                          #13
                          Re: number crunching

                          Originally posted by PTI
                          Sabres versus Capitals is basically a playoff game.
                          And I'll be there, which means we're ****ed. Sorry guys.
                          MiKiDo Facebook
                          MiKiDo Website

                          Comment

                          • OpIv37
                            Acid Douching Asswipe
                            • Sep 2002
                            • 101305

                            #14
                            Re: number crunching

                            Originally posted by MitchMurrayDowntown
                            If you check the last 10 games played & remaining schedule, I'd bet on the Sabres to have a few extra wins. Another factor is the Pittsburgh / Boston / Philly positioning will probably be settled then, so odds are they sit their main guys & heal them up.
                            You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.
                            MiKiDo Facebook
                            MiKiDo Website

                            Comment

                            • MitchMurrayDowntown
                              Skoobasaurus-Rex
                              • Oct 2011
                              • 22284

                              #15
                              Re: number crunching

                              Originally posted by OpIv37
                              You can't sit guys in hockey like you can in football. Different game, different pace.
                              Healthy scratches are completely normal & accepted.

                              Comment

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