Building the Bills Board

[DraftBoy]

Part 1 - Need Evaluation
http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/04/building-the-bills-board-part-1-needs-evaluation/


With the draft only 8 days away we wanted to do everything we could to get you prepped and ready for who the Bills could take, who we think they’ll take, and who might be left available after the draft is over. Today we start that process by doing what every NFL team is either currently doing or has just finished up and that’s building the draft board.

If you missed it last week we released new positional rankings along with a new Top 750 Big Board but that was all based on general rankings and scouting, it didn’t include a Bills centric focus. This series of articles will take you through every stop, thought, and detail of how we will build the Buffalo Bills draft board. We want to encourage you to please comment and give us your input as we go along.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Good luck with that. Anyone who has that figured out before the Bills do, I tip my hat to you. lol They won't even have theirs finalized until next Wednesday. In other words, even the Bills aren't sure who they are taking yet. I'm sure they have some idea about who will be there and who won't. What they are probably figuring out is who they actually want to roll the dice on. JMO

[Buddo]

Not completely worked through the whole thing, but I believe you have misplaced Spencer Johnson. You have him as a DE, whereas I think he is just as likely to be used at DT, as he was when he was with the Vikes.
He does have some versatility, and I can see him being used as a DE on obvious running downs, but I'd say he could easily be a first up backup when either Dareus or Williams needs a blow.

[YardRat]

The draft board is already built...

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012-top-100-prospects/

[The Jokeman]

The draft board is already built...

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012-top-100-prospects/
That more of a general consensus board. While it's nice to think we could use something like to relate to the Bills we can't. Case in point by most accounts Kendall Wright tanks as the 3rd best WR on most boards. I think on a Bills specific board he wouldn't rank so high if the Bills are focused on bringing in a guy with size which means we could favor a guy like Ruben Randle as the 3rd best WR on our board.

[DraftBoy]

Not completely worked through the whole thing, but I believe you have misplaced Spencer Johnson. You have him as a DE, whereas I think he is just as likely to be used at DT, as he was when he was with the Vikes.
He does have some versatility, and I can see him being used as a DE on obvious running downs, but I'd say he could easily be a first up backup when either Dareus or Williams needs a blow.

Per Buffalo Bills official website he's a DE.

[YardRat]

That more of a general consensus board. While it's nice to think we could use something like to relate to the Bills we can't. Case in point by most accounts Kendall Wright tanks as the 3rd best WR on most boards. I think on a Bills specific board he wouldn't rank so high if the Bills are focused on bringing in a guy with size which means we could favor a guy like Ruben Randle as the 3rd best WR on our board.

Just IMO, but if a front office is re-ranking specific positions based on desire and need they are making a huge mistake. If you determine somebody is the third best receiver in the draft, than that's what they are. Now, using your examples, if the big board has Wright and Randle ranked very closely on the big board (3 and 3.5 or 4) then maybe measurables come into play.

[DraftBoy]

Just IMO, but if a front office is re-ranking specific positions based on desire and need they are making a huge mistake. If you determine somebody is the third best receiver in the draft, than that's what they are. Now, using your examples, if the big board has Wright and Randle ranked very closely on the big board (3 and 3.5 or 4) then maybe measurables come into play.

While I think its a good point that was made, rather for me its about valuing certain positions over others. For instance my Big Board on BBD has Richardson over Kalil, but I dont think the Bills would. Do you?

[YardRat]

While I think its a good point that was made, rather for me its about valuing certain positions over others. For instance my Big Board on BBD has Richardson over Kalil, but I dont think the Bills would. Do you?

I think if the Bills used your board, the pick would be Kalil.

They are close enough (3 and 4 overall, not just by position) where need would become a factor, and (I hope) they would go for the #1 LT and #4 overall over the #1 RB and #3 overall.

But, what if at #10, and using your board, Richardson and Massie are available instead of Kalil. Do you take your #3 ranked player or #15?

To return to Joke's example of Wright vs Randle, according to the rankings...

22. WR Kendall Wright-Baylor
23. DT Dontari Poe-Memphis
24. CB Janoris Jenkins-North Alabama
25. DE Andre Branch-Clemson
26. OC Peter Konz-Wisconsin
27. CB Casey Hayward-Vanderbilt
28. WR Reuben Randle-LSU

...is the difference in grading #22 vs #28 overall (or #3 vs #4 receiver) close enough to factor in measurables? What if the top two WR's available were Wright and Quick, Jeffery or Sanu. Do you skip over #22 in favor of #36, #41 or #48?

[DraftBoy]

I think if the Bills used your board, the pick would be Kalil.

They are close enough (3 and 4 overall, not just by position) where need would become a factor, and (I hope) they would go for the #1 LT and #4 overall over the #1 RB and #3 overall.

But, what if at #10, and using your board, Richardson and Massie are available instead of Kalil. Do you take your #3 ranked player or #15?

To return to Joke's example of Wright vs Randle, according to the rankings...

22. WR Kendall Wright-Baylor
23. DT Dontari Poe-Memphis
24. CB Janoris Jenkins-North Alabama
25. DE Andre Branch-Clemson
26. OC Peter Konz-Wisconsin
27. CB Casey Hayward-Vanderbilt
28. WR Reuben Randle-LSU

...is the difference in grading #22 vs #28 overall (or #3 vs #4 receiver) close enough to factor in measurables? What if the top two WR's available were Wright and Quick, Jeffery or Sanu. Do you skip over #22 in favor of #36, #41 or #48?

All good questions but I won't have Wright that high in my Bills board, at least no above Jenkins and Branch.

[DraftBoy]

Part 2 - Who We've Seen

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/04/building-the-bills-board-part-2-who-weve-seen/


Below is a listing of every game, player interview, and pro day that we could find Bills scouts at confirmed. This list contains the names of 100’s of players and over 50 events. The correlations that may be drawn between whether the Bills saw a player live, brought him in for a workout, or attended his pro day are for you to take in and decide on your own.

[DraftBoy]

FWIW Part 2 contains every game the Bills scouted that I could confirm, all the prospects from my Top 750 in those game,s all the pro days, all the combine visits, all the official visits, and two private workouts.

Phew...

[k-oneputt]

How do you not see the best team in the country which has approx. a dozen players who could play in the NFL ?

Does that even make sense ?

[DraftBoy]

How do you not see the best team in the country which has approx. a dozen players who could play in the NFL ?

Does that even make sense ?

1. Those were only the games we could confirm
2. The Bills are members of BLESTO
3. The Bills extensively scouted Alabama last year when they took Dareus
4. The scout easily could of scouted Alabama off tape as opposed to being at the game

[DraftBoy]

Part 3 - Top Ten Big Board

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/04/building-the-bills-board-part-3-top-10-big-board/


Finally we have now gone through what we know we need and what players we have already seen now it’s finally time to start putting together the draft board. We’ll start with the top 10 picks since we pick #10 overall. This will be a board of who and why we are placing each player in what positions. The idea is that how matter how the draft falls on Thursday night we will end up with one of these ten players.

[k-oneputt]

I'd say that board looks pretty accurate for the Bills.

My wish list in order: Coples, Glenn, Gilmore/Kirkpatrick

What I think the Bills order is: Gilmore, Glenn, Kirkpatrick, Floyd.

[YardRat]

Part 3 - Top Ten Big Board

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/04/building-the-bills-board-part-3-top-10-big-board/

If you are trying to simulate the Bill's real Big board, Richardson has to at least replace Glenn at 10. Don't think for a second that they don't have him rated in the top 10 of this draft class, and don't dismiss the possibility of them taking him if he drops to 10 in a draft-and-trade scenario.

[The Jokeman]

If you are trying to simulate the Bill's real Big board, Richardson has to at least replace Glenn at 10. Don't think for a second that they don't have him rated in the top 10 of this draft class, and don't dismiss the possibility of them taking him if he drops to 10 in a draft-and-trade scenario.
He might be rated above Glenn but he's probably marked to not take even if he was available. As we already have a top 10 pick invested in another RB and argurbly one of the best RBs in the NFL last year prior to injury toss in Choice is an above average 3rd string RB and did invest in Johnny White last year. All add up to make Richardson as someone who "won't be" on the Bills board.

[YardRat]

He might be rated above Glenn but he's probably marked to not take even if he was available. As we already have a top 10 pick invested in another RB and argurbly one of the best RBs in the NFL last year prior to injury toss in Choice is an above average 3rd string RB and did invest in Johnny White last year. All add up to make Richardson as someone who "won't be" on the Bills board.

CJ Spiller. End of story.

[The Jokeman]

CJ Spiller. End of story.
I'm not ready to throw Spiller out as a bad pick. Of course I could debate his relative value in comparison with the rest of that draft and sure it looks like a bad pick. That said I was arguing for Dez Bryant by the time the draft rolled around even though in my heart I wanted Bulaga.

[YardRat]

I'm not ready to throw Spiller out as a bad pick. Of course I could debate his relative value in comparison with the rest of that draft and sure it looks like a bad pick. That said I was arguing for Dez Bryant by the time the draft rolled around even though in my heart I wanted Bulaga.

The point isn't bad pick vs good, it's the Bills draft board. If Richardson "won't be on the Bills draft board" than Spiller shouldn't have been either. But he was.

[DraftBoy]

The point isn't bad pick vs good, it's the Bills draft board. If Richardson "won't be on the Bills draft board" than Spiller shouldn't have been either. But he was.

One difference, the Bills saw CJ Spiller as a playmaker/athlete because he can line up in the slot, play traditional RB, return kicks, and be used in a variety of ways.

Richardson while very good at being RB is not the same kind of versatile weapon CJ was coming out.

I dont think you can say that well CJ was the Bills pick and since he was a RB Trent Richardson should be on the board as well.

[YardRat]

One difference, the Bills saw CJ Spiller as a playmaker/athlete because he can line up in the slot, play traditional RB, return kicks, and be used in a variety of ways.

Richardson while very good at being RB is not the same kind of versatile weapon CJ was coming out.

I dont think you can say that well CJ was the Bills pick and since he was a RB Trent Richardson should be on the board as well.

Richardson is better than CJ already. (I know, an exaggeration, but...)

If he isn't on their board, than they are dumbasses, and I don't think they are dumbasses.

I would be stunned if any professional team put together a big board that removed players completely or even simply downgraded them by a lot simply because of a perception of a lack of need.

Janoris Jenkins may have a couple of bright red warning stars next to his name, but you can bet your ass it's still on the team's big board in a spot relatively close to where they already had him slotted talent-wise.

[DraftBoy]

Richardson is better than CJ already. (I know, an exaggeration, but...)

If he isn't on their board, than they are dumbasses, and I don't think they are dumbasses.

I would be stunned if any professional team put together a big board that removed players completely or even simply downgraded them by a lot simply because of a perception of a lack of need.

Janoris Jenkins may have a couple of bright red warning stars next to his name, but you can bet your ass it's still on the team's big board in a spot relatively close to where they already had him slotted talent-wise.

Its not that he's not on their board, when I drop 11-42 tonight you'll see him, but I dont think he's Top 10.

Why would that stun you? Do you think the Giants rank Ryan Tannehill as high as the Dolphins do? The Giants have zero need at QB while the Dolphins have a massive one.

Absolutely agree Jenkins is on every teams board.

[psubills62]

One difference, the Bills saw CJ Spiller as a playmaker/athlete because he can line up in the slot, play traditional RB, return kicks, and be used in a variety of ways.

Richardson while very good at being RB is not the same kind of versatile weapon CJ was coming out.

I dont think you can say that well CJ was the Bills pick and since he was a RB Trent Richardson should be on the board as well.
This. So many people were pissed about Spiller because they labeled him a RB. I've been saying for a while that Spiller brings a dynamic element that we haven't had in a while (i.e. TALENT). To me, the Spiller pick was about increasing the talent level of the team overall, no matter the position.

[The Jokeman]

This. So many people were pissed about Spiller because they labeled him a RB. I've been saying for a while that Spiller brings a dynamic element that we haven't had in a while (i.e. TALENT). To me, the Spiller pick was about increasing the talent level of the team overall, no matter the position.
Yet looking back we had some serious talent already at his position but had some serious question marks at WR then. As before that draft Stevie was a guy we all hoped could develop. We also had some questions at OT. To this day we still have those questions and again if look back had we taken Dez Bryant instead of Spiller and to me Dez + Marshawn (who we would have likely kept if Spiller not on the roster) > Bulaga + Marshawn > Spiller + Hairston + ?. As stated many a time a draft about getting the best collection of talent not necessarly coming away with the best player every round.

[Slim]

Yet looking back we had some serious talent already at his position but had some serious question marks at WR then. As before that draft Stevie was a guy we all hoped could develop. We also had some questions at OT. To this day we still have those questions and again if look back had we taken Dez Bryant instead of Spiller and to me Dez + Marshawn (who we would have likely kept if Spiller not on the roster) > Bulaga + Marshawn > Spiller + Hairston + ?. As stated many a time a draft about getting the best collection of talent not necessarly coming away with the best player every round.
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/292/436pxcaptainhindsight.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/205/436pxcaptainhindsight.jpg/)

[The Jokeman]

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/292/436pxcaptainhindsight.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/205/436pxcaptainhindsight.jpg/)



I agree that if chosing between Spiller, Bryant, Clausen or Davis that would take one of the top 2. Spiller would make the most immediate impact but think Bryant might be the best short term/long term value pick.
Dated 4/20/2010 in http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=190776&highlight=Bryant

[YardRat]

Its not that he's not on their board, when I drop 11-42 tonight you'll see him, but I dont think he's Top 10.

Why would that stun you? Do you think the Giants rank Ryan Tannehill as high as the Dolphins do? The Giants have zero need at QB while the Dolphins have a massive one.

Absolutely agree Jenkins is on every teams board.

If they don't, then they don't know what they are doing either. They might not covet the position as much as the Dolphins, but that shouldn't affect the ranking by any means.

[ServoBillieves]

Ok... DB I frequent the site. I enjoy it, I follow it, but I have to ask a simple question.

Who the heck is your editor? I'm finding it harder and harder to give credibility with these articles when there are so many grammatical errors. If you're fast paced and consider it a blog more than anything then PLEASE disregard my statement but if this is written to be a legitimate news source then I'd find someone else.

[DraftBoy]

If they don't, then they don't know what they are doing either. They might not covet the position as much as the Dolphins, but that shouldn't affect the ranking by any means.

I'm sure they'll keep that in mind as they shine their Lombardi trophy.

Every teams board is different, every team has different needs and will weight players differently based on those needs, and of course their scouts opinions.

[DraftBoy]

Ok... DB I frequent the site. I enjoy it, I follow it, but I have to ask a simple question.

Who the heck is your editor? I'm finding it harder and harder to give credibility with these articles when there are so many grammatical errors. If you're fast paced and consider it a blog more than anything then PLEASE disregard my statement but if this is written to be a legitimate news source then I'd find someone else.

No editor, the site isn't intended to break news or even be sourced more so than for direct scouting notes, rankings, and reference. We wrote very few articles comparatively for that very reason.

That being said the grammatical issues are getting better (slowly) at least they were before the last two weeks as 40 hr a week schedule and NFL Draft schedule collided. If the site does well enough in the next month we may consider adding an editor because frankly we need one but nothing comes for free.

[YardRat]

I'm sure they'll keep that in mind as they shine their Lombardi trophy.

Every teams board is different, every team has different needs and will weight players differently based on those needs, and of course their scouts opinions.

Well, since you are insistent that the Giants have him ranked much lower on their board than Miami does on theirs, if you can show that to me I'll concede.

Interesting story on Brady from Pioli...NE actually had Brady ranked higher than 199 on their board, by "quite a bit". They passed on him at least twice, because of other players that were available at the time that fit their needs better. It got to the point where in the sixth round, the guy was still on the board, all alone surrounded by mark-offs of the other players taken, and they decided they just couldn't pass up the value.

NE may have coveted other players/positions before QB, but Brady was still ranked on their board relative to ability, even though they chose players before him they had rated below him.

[TedMock]

Well, since you are insistent that the Giants have him ranked much lower on their board than Miami does on theirs, if you can show that to me I'll concede.

Interesting story on Brady from Pioli...NE actually had Brady ranked higher than 199 on their board, by "quite a bit". They passed on him at least twice, because of other players that were available at the time that fit their needs better. It got to the point where in the sixth round, the guy was still on the board, all alone surrounded by mark-offs of the other players taken, and they decided they just couldn't pass up the value.

NE may have coveted other players/positions before QB, but Brady was still ranked on their board relative to ability, even though they chose players before him they had rated below him.

The problem is that GM's, coaches and other personnel guys always say stuff like this about their players. When we drafte Kelsay in round 2, Donahoe said something along the lines of he was the guy we were really targetting and were thrilled that he dropped, blah blah.

I personally do not believe Pioli at all here. Go back and look at the 2000 NE draft. It actually kind of sucked, but landing a guy like Brady made all the difference. I don't know how much higher they had him on their board, but there are 32 teams that did not take him in the top 198 picks.

There is rumor that the Patriots were the only team to specifically visit him and there was one AFCE scout from another team who showed a lot of interest and was pounding the table for him, but nobody else in the organization liked him that much. Not sure how true any of that is though.

Round Overall Player Position College
2 46 Adrian Klemm Offensive tackle Hawaii
3 76 J. R. Redmond Running back Arizona State
4 127 Greg Robinson-Randall Offensive tackle Michigan State
5 141 Dave Stachelski Tight end Boise State
5[7] 161 Jeff Marriott Defensive tackle Missouri
6 187 Antwan Harris Safety Virginia
6 199 Tom Brady Quarterback Michigan
6 201 David Nugent Defensive end Purdue
7 226 Casey Tisdale Linebacker New Mexico
7 239 Patrick Pass Fullback Georgia